quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
Col Douglas Macgregor Talks Common Sense With Tucker Carlson About the Russia-Ukraine Conflict,

MacGregor is a Putin apologist with no love for Ukraine...IMO.

quote:

So far, Macgregor is the one who has been the most accurate in his assessments when compared to the results on the ground in Ukraine.

Yeah, he said that Russia would decimate the Ukrainian resistance in Eastern Ukraine within 24 hours...five days ago.

He's a hack. Again...IMO.

China Won’t Take Part in Western Financial Sanctions on Russia: Bank Regulator Chief

https://www.wsj.com/livecovera...uWcY1AvqXs5ssr2057HA

China opposed unilateral financial sanctions and won’t participate in such sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia, Guo Shuqing, the head of China’s banking and insurance regulator, said Wednesday.

In the latest sanctions on Russia's invasion into Ukraine, Western allies decided Tuesday to cut off several Russian banks from Swift global financial messaging system.

“We will not participate in such sanctions, and we will continue to maintain normal economic, trade and financial exchanges with relevant parties,” said Mr. Guo in a briefing.

Unilateral financial sanctions normally don’t show a good effect and lack a legal basis, he said in response to a question in the briefing.

Given close ties between Beijing and Moscow, analysts believe China could provide an alternative by offering to use its own fledgling rival to Swift, called the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, though the Chinese network has much limited reach.

Regarding the impact of such sanctions on China's economy and financial system, he said that “it is not too obvious now and needs to be observed,” but impact should be limited given the resilience of the Chinese economy.

Pressure mounts on Russia.

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Ukraine: UN General Assembly condemns invasion as Russia reports gains — live updates
The UN General Assembly has approved a resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine with just five countries voting against. Meanwhile, Russia claimed advances on the ground on Wednesday. DW has the latest.

UN General Assembly 'demands' Russia withdraw from Ukraine

The United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly voted for a nonbinding resolution that condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and called for its immediate withdrawal.

After a rare emergency session that started on Monday, 141 countries voted for the resolution, 35 abstained, and five voted against it.

Only Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria voted with Russia against the resolution.

The resolution deplored Russia's "aggression'' against Ukraine "in the strongest terms" and "demands" Russia "immediately" withdraw from Ukraine.

It also condemned President Vladimir Putin's decision to put his nuclear forces on alert.

The resolution is not legally binding but the vote tally could serve to put additional pressure on the Kremlin. A similar motion was vetoed last week in the UN Security Council, with Russia's vote the only one against.

Full article: Ukraine: UN General Assembly condemns invasion as Russia reports gains — live updates

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
China Won’t Take Part in Western Financial Sanctions on Russia

“We will not participate in such sanctions, and we will continue to maintain normal economic, trade and financial exchanges with relevant parties,” said Mr. Guo

Cool. This means that there'd be little downside to Russia taking whatever additional non-NATO territory they want (or can hold). It won't affect their trade and banking with China, and the rest of the world won't have any additional sanctions to pursue. Once the West has taken away everything, they can't take anything more, and Russia will just rebuild their economy around trade with China.

Plus, there are a number of developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America where China holds serious sway due to their strategic control of much of their economy and their infrastructure. So they could use that leverage to coerce those nations to continue banking and trading with Russia.

This is very much setting up the potential for a WW2-style Europe/Pacific scenario of Russia-China (with their puppets and unwitting subordinate countries dragged along) vs. the rest of the world. Or at the very least, a New Cold War with Russia-China as the new Eastern Bloc.

When America had a real president. This is what owning the room looks like Joe.

"Let's dance, bitch! I lead, you follow."

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Originally posted by RogueJSK:
Cool. This means that there'd be little downside to Russia taking whatever additional non-NATO territory they want (or can hold)...This is very much setting up the potential for a WW2-style Europe/Pacific scenario of Russia-China (with their puppets and unwitting subordinate countries dragged along) vs. the rest of the world.

I'm not entirely sure I agree. You may be right in that Russia won't face a whole lot of additional international costs if it grabs Moldova and maybe Georgia, but the idea of a China/Russia axis seems based on fundamental assumptions that may not hold up.

- China now has Russia by the economic balls, and certainly intends to use that power for its own benefit. This is particularly true given that Russia and China have not only fought each other over border issues, but have been vying to be the most influential player in north Asia for decades. Hell, China's still pissed over Russia's role in what China sees as the "Vietnam/Cambodia/Laos mess" of the 70's, 80's and 90's.

- China has shown no interest in supporting or overlooking Putin's little excursions into other countries. They'll blame it on the US as a matter of form, but there's no benefit for China in any of it.

- China has historically tried to use Russia and the United States to counterbalance each other, both for its own security and its own freedom to act on the international scene. If China thinks it has Russia by the scruff of the neck, the temptation to use Russia as a buffer and crash test dummy in relations with the West is going to be nigh-on irresistable. China will most certainly NOT put its ass on the line just because Russia picks or gets into a fight.

- China's "Belt and Road" initiative isn't bearing the kind of fruit one might imagine. Several countries have sought to throw off or renegotiate what are widely seen as one-sided deals for mines and ports, are furious over Chinese abuses of labor and the environment in their countries, and have begun to resent and fear the political power, the opportunities for sabotaging their hosts, and the espionage opportunities China has access to in their countries because of those deals. Rejecting those deals (a la Australia) is the new, trendy way to show you're an international affairs badass in Asia. The punch line to the joke? Most of those countries are openly opposed to Putin right now, or are former colonies that got whiplash back in the Cold War days and want no more of being economic or political pawns. All of them can certainly look to the West as a fount of alternatives when it comes to banking and trading relationships with Russia, so at the very least I would expect most such relationships to be profitable for China but not very profitable for Russia.

- China's big worry for the past several years has been Modhi's India. India may buy a lot of weapons and things from Russia, but they can replace Russia as a source. Moreover, Russia will want to maintain its relationship with India, even (if not especially) at China's expense, in order to maintain their own international influence.

- China has a cultural affiliation for the "big brother/little brother" type of relationship rather than peer-to-peer relationships. China will have to be the big brother in the relationship, and Russia will continually be trying to evade the consequences of the relationship AND force China to treat it as a peer. After all, back in the days of the illusion of "monolithic communism" Russia was the "big brother", and an awfully ham-handed one at that.

- China wants Siberia. Russia wants to keep Siberia. See current demographics of Vladivostok to get a better idea of how closely-balanced the two countries' positions are there.

In short, I don't think that model of a bi-polar world is sustainable in reality and I think it's extremely unlikely that either China or Russia would even consider it a firm foundation for waging a war with the US and its allies.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by bigdeal:
When America had a real president. This is what owning the room looks like Joe.


I think Russia knew that President Trump was not out to destabilize the region or Russia. Putin knew what had happened in Ukraine while Obama was president, and now that the same players were back in power under Biden he invades Ukraine. Here is an interesting video from 2014 that analyzed what was happeneing in Ukraine at that time. Everything the Democrats touch goes to shit. Look at our own border and the crime that has exploded in the cities since President Trump is no longer in power.

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When America had a real president. This is what owning the room looks like Joe.

Love to see 2-scoops and Putin in the same room together now.

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MacGregor is a Putin apologist with no love for Ukraine...IMO.

Hmm... he is attempting to see things from Putin's perspective, as in what he's attempting and possibly thinking, but does that make him an apologist?

But, yeah, he does seem to over-estimate Russian capability.

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Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
- China wants Siberia. Russia wants to keep Siberia. See current demographics of Vladivostok to get a better idea of how closely-balanced the two countries' positions are there.

This ^^^^^

This is one of the reasons I lend credence to the "is Putin losing it?" questions. China is a much bigger threat to Russia than is the West. Has been for some time.

What is in Siberia other than Gulag? [/Russian accent]?

Is it about natural resources or just land?

Don't forget that China wants Taiwan and various islands. Now when they do so, Russia will not sanction them.

But would the west sanction China? Not really likely, unless we want a shit ton of US and European business investment in China to be enjoined. And to be starved of all the stuff we import from China.

One positive - this conflict will certain give the US and NATO nations a chance to observe and evaluate Russian military tactics and capabilities. (unless Putin is slow-rolling that too with a JV approach)

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
- China wants Siberia. Russia wants to keep Siberia.

This ^^^^^

This is one of the reasons I lend credence to the "is Putin losing it?" questions. China is a much bigger threat to Russia than is the West. Has been for some time.

Very interesting. Now I have a new rabbit hole to follow.

I wasn't aware of China's ambitions towards Siberia.

China has never won a significant military campaign against anyone. They have perpetually been occupied and controlled by others - Mongolia, Russia, Japan, Taiwan, etc.

Whenever I see someone talk up China's military "superiority", it's usually a propaganda troll. They have zero experience with modern combat. I've seen the Liaoning Aircraft Carrier in port with the silly ski jump front end, along with a couple destroyers. Their primary tactics in this century will be economic, propaganda, and cyber attacks.

They did win a skirmish or two with India in the mountains, but, that's not exactly saying much.

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Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
China has never won a significant military campaign against anyone.

Well, not including against themselves.

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
What is in Siberia other than Gulag? [/Russian accent]?

Is it about natural resources or just land?

Some of the world’s largest and richest deposits of mundane, industrial and strategic metals and minerals.

Accessing it has always been a problem. If the Russians (or Chinese as the case may be) ever really figure out how to exploit those resources in one of the most remote and hostile environments on the planet it will shift the entire world economic dynamic.

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
What is in Siberia other than Gulag? [/Russian accent]?

Is it about natural resources or just land?

Oil and minerals, both on land and under the sea, fisheries, land, military air and sea ports, and a dominant position in north Asia when it comes to international trade across the Pacific all come to mind.

Gold also.

https://smallcaps.com.au/world...scovered-in-siberia/