Couldn't resist.

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
“Putin may circle Kiev with tanks,
but he’ll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people.”
– Pres. Joe Biden 2022 SOTU Address

I was wondering if I was the only one who caught that.

And I thought “did he really say that?”

The close caption said American, did he mean Ukrainian?

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:

From what I've read online, the US played a fairly significant role in his rise to power. That's a huge part of the reason (along with the rampant corruption in Zelenshy's administration), Putin views him as illegitimate.

Everyone keeps saying the US did, but I can't find anything online about it. Can you share the links you read?

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:

Everyone keeps saying the US did, but I can't find anything online about it. Can you share the links you read?

I'm NOT saying anyone is full of shit, I simply don't accept the phrases like:
- I read an article that said
- I've been reading
- From what I've read
- That's not true according to what I'm reading

*unless a link is provided. I just don't engage with the opinion or commentary with my brain unless there's a link to the article or data.


COVID19 taught me this.

Goodgoddamm, pResident Depends is an absolute idiot.

Russia might not have a majority control of W. Europe's gas, but no longer having access to 40% of your needed gas is about to make life miserable for W. Europeans.


European gas jumps 60%

Chaos Erupts In Energy Markets As European Gas Jumps 60%
Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Mar 02, 2022 - 07:43 AM

The invasion of Ukraine has transformed Russia into a commercial outcast as refiners balk at purchasing Russian energy products, and banks are refusing to finance shipments. The result is a physical market in disarray as geopolitical turmoil upends supply chains and keeps markets volatile.

Commodity markets have been in turmoil since the Feb. 24 invasion. European natural gas jumped as much as 60% on Wednesday -- as buyers, traders and shippers avoid Russian gas.

Three sources told Bloomberg that gas and power traders are avoiding new deals with Russia's Gazprom PJSC. They said European companies are expected to unwind contracts, or clearinghouses will halt trading with Russia's state-owned energy company and liquidate their positions.

But for now, Gazprom's gas supplies are flowing into Europe and increasing. Shipments at top entry points, such as Velke Kapusany in Slovakia and Yamal-Europe pipeline overnight in Germany, have recorded gas levels rebounded, with more capacity booked.

The invasion has turned Russian into a commercial outcast and is causing changes in market structures, price dislocations, and violent swings across commodities and many asset classes.

The European benchmark, Dutch gas, jumped to nearly 195 euros a megawatt-hour, a record high, and were 38% higher at 167 euros at 0728 ET.

The invasion has sent crude soaring -- with Brent crude topping $113 a barrel around 0300 ET -- as buyers bulk at Russian energy products.

"Geopolitics are throttling supply chains and keeping markets on edge," said John Driscoll, a Singapore-based chief strategist at JTD Energy Services Pte. The wild swings in intraday trading ranges, volatility and backwardation are "scary," he said.

Russia, which supplies one-third of Europe's gas needs, has said delivery of gas through vast pipeline networks will continue. Gazprom warned Tuesday of "serious challenges" in replenishing European gas storage facilities for next winter, considering "such significant gas volumes" are needed. This has never happened ahead of the summer months.

Europe is already smack dab in an energy crisis that appears to be worsening by the day as gas prices soar to record highs. Demand destruction will be brought forward at this rate and could push the continent's economy into stagflation.

On Tuesday, European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn was quoted by Bloomberg as saying Russia's invasion will lead to stagflation. He said the ECB is not in a position to tighten fiscal policy.

World Bank President David Malpass told CBS on Sunday that it could take upwards of five years to find alternatives to Russian gas.

Good thing we shut down pipeline construction and nixed oil leases.

This pResident is just the gift that keeps on giving.

quote:

Originally posted by kimber1911:
Battle plans show rolling in to Moldova.

Not quite.

There's one offensive arrow on the southwest (bottom left) corner of the map pointing from Odessa towards the Russian-occupied region of Moldova known as Transnistria. That's the skinny red-shaded area on the border between Ukraine and Moldova.

Similar to the regions of South Ossetia in Georgia and Donetsk/Luhansk in Ukraine, Transnistria is a Russian-backed breakway region of Moldova where Russia has stationed "peacekeeping troops" (read: occupation) since the early 1990s. Moldova and NATO have tried to convince Russia to exit Transnistria for a couple decades now, and Russia kept agreeing to do so, but then stalling and never actually withdrawing. And now it appears the plan is simply to add Transnistria to the Russian Empire alongside Ukraine.

There are no arrows on the map pushing further into Moldova. So the map appears to simply show the Russian forces in that southwestern offensive in Ukraine linking up with the Russian forces already currently stationed in Transnistria.

Note that Donetsk/Luhansk in southeast Ukraine are similarly shaded red (on the right side of the map). That red shading denotes areas outside of Russia that Russian forces were already occupying prior to the invasion of Ukraine pictured on the map.

Of course, Moldova would be the next logical country for Russia to gobble up, since it's small, poor, a former Soviet republic, and not a NATO member. But that's not explicitly shown on this map.

quote:

Originally posted by scsigs:

quote:

Originally posted by RogueJSK:

quote:

Originally posted by scsigs:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Captain Morgan:
It would be great if Poland invades Belarus and that little piece of land to the north of Poland.
Putin would have a fit.

So it not ok to invade Ukrainian but ok to invade Belarus?

These determinations depend on context.


For example, during WW2 it was not ok for Germany to invade Poland/France/Denmark/Belgium/Holland/Norway/Yugoslavia/Greece/Russia/et al.

But it was ok for the Allies to invade Germany in response.


In this case, Russia and Belarus started an illegitimate war of aggression by invading Ukraine. That is not ok.

But if the war were to expand to include NATO countries coming to the active defense of Ukraine, it would be ok for NATO to invade Kaliningrad and Belarus as part of that aim of stopping Belarussian/Russian aggression, freeing Ukraine, ending the war, and restoring stability.[/QUOTE

Belarus has not sent troops to Ukrainian, even if they did, what reason would Poland have to attack them.
Just for context, I have relatives in 3 major cities that are being bombed right now.

Lets start off by saying I dont want a global war. My original post was really armchair quarterbacking.

Ukraine is already in the fight. By Poland invading a Belarus it would divert Belarus forces off of Ukraine easing that front. It may even cause the Russians in Belarus to retreat.

That little speck of Russian land above Poland would have to be seized as well.

We will see if these sanctions work. They typically dont. The Russians will get goods from other countries.

quote:

Of course, Moldova would be the next logical country for Russia to gobble up

In the course of conversation where we were discussing intentions, I told my buddy that if he's interested in more than Ukraine, it won't be Poland. It will be a sweep around the south of Europe that makes the most sense. It stays way from NATO nations and gives him access to all the oil fields in E. Europe.

Then we all get under our school desks...

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
It will be a sweep around the south of Europe that makes the most sense. It stays way from NATO nations and gives him access to all the oil fields in E. Europe.

Russia can't get to much in Southern/Eastern Europe without running into NATO countries. Finland is the only bordering European countries that isn't a NATO member. If they take Ukraine they'll also border Moldova, who isn't a NATO member (and as previously mentioned, Russia currently occupies a portion of Moldovan territory anyway).

Otherwise, in order to get land access to any of the non-NATO countries in Southern Europe (which would be the former Yugoslavian countries of Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia), after taking Ukraine he'd have to take Romania and/or Hungary, both of which are in NATO. Romania does have oil, though.

Are you perhaps referring to the former Soviet republics in the Caucuses like Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, located between Russian and Turkey/Iran? Those are in Western Asia, not Eastern Europe. But they do have oil and are not in NATO, though Georgia has been begging for NATO membership ever since the initial Russian invasion of Georgia back in 2008.

However, Russia isn't exactly hurting for oil access right now, so that's not a major factor... They're the third largest oil producer in the world, just behind the US and Saudi Arabia, and are currently facing a large surplus of oil since other countries are shutting off Russian oil imports. (Whereas during WW2, taking these areas of the Caucuses was a major aim of the German invasion of the Soviet Union, to get Germany access to their much-needed oil production.)

So I think Moldova is a given if they successfully take Ukraine. Probably Georgia too, since like Transnistria in Moldova, they already have Russian troops occupying part of Georgia (South Ossetia). Azerbaijan and Armenia are maybes.

Beyond that, if the war expands to include NATO, the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are likely next since they're small, poorly positioned to be easily cut off, are all former Soviet territory, and they have sizeable ethnic Russian minorities and some vocal pro-Russian groups.


NATO countries shown in blue:

This message has been edited. Last edited by: RogueJSK,

I find it interesting that there's a 1st CAV insignia on that battle plan map.

quote:

Originally posted by Gustofer:
I find it interesting that there's a 1st CAV insignia on that battle plan map.

I saw that! WTF

I think Romania and Bulgaria will want to add to their naval strength in the Black Sea which is an area which Russia considers it own private lake. I believe yesterday Turkey was considering cutting off Russian warships transiting into the Black Sea from the Med.

quote:

Are you perhaps referring to the former Soviet republics in the Caucuses like Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, located between Russian and Turkey/Iran?

Yes. W. EurAsia/E. Europe. Potato/Tomato.

Col Douglas Macgregor Talks Common Sense With Tucker Carlson About the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Video

Col Douglas Macgregor appeared for a sit-down interview with Tucker Carlson tonight to discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

So far, Macgregor is the one who has been the most accurate in his assessments when compared to the results on the ground in Ukraine. If what Macgregor outlines in this interview is correct, and there’s no reason to believe it isn’t, then President Putin has been planning this operation for a long time.

As the multinational corporations, multinational banks, collective corporate and political west along with the EU, NATO and media, tell Ukraine to keep fighting, it appears Russia is moving through a methodical plan they have no hope of stopping. This would explain why the Russian convoys are pausing before going hardcore on the cities and population centers.
WATCH:


https://theconservativetreehou...t-video/#more-228935

quote:

Originally posted by 2PAK:
Ensig,

I hadn't seen the YouTube video that Kimber displays above when I made my comment.

Nor had I.

I was unaware of the Transnistria situation, which is not unlike that of the Donetsk and Luhansk break-away republics in Ukraine. There is one major difference, though...

quote:

Originally posted by 2PAK:
Frankly, I'd be more surprised that he wouldn't roll up Moldova if he's successful in Ukraine.

Moldova could thwart that quite easily (*): Re-incorporate with Romania.

Not entirely far-fetched. Moldova was once part of Romania. According to the CIA World Factbook page on Moldova, its language and culture are essentially indistinguishable from Romania's. Most of its trade is with Romania.

Romania and Moldova would of course have to have intense talks with the EU and NATO before making such a move. Depending upon Putin's progress in Ukraine, it would be wise to start those talks earlier, rather than later. Like maybe now?


(*) FSVO: For Some Value Of

quote:

Originally posted by 2PAK:
I believe yesterday Turkey was considering cutting off Russian warships transiting into the Black Sea from the Med.

Turkey already closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits (the only access from the Med to the Black Sea) to Russian warships in response to the war in Ukraine, as of Monday.

https://www.navalnews.com/nava...sphorus-to-warships/

Turkey has the power to close those Black Sea straights to any wartime belligerents, under the Montreux Convention.

The only exceptions are Russian warships who need to transit the straights to return to their home ports, which would be allowed to return home. (I don't believe that Russia has any of their Black Sea Fleet located elsewhere at this time, but there are some non-Black Sea Fleet ships that were sent in as part of the buildup over the preceding months, which would therefore be allowed to exit the Black Sea into the Med to get home.)

quote:

In a time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Articles 10 to 18 (the articles regulate tonnage limitations and passing rules).

Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not, however, pass through the Straits except in cases arising out of the application of Article 25 of the present Convention, and in cases of assistance rendered to a State victim of aggression in virtue of a treaty of mutual assistance binding Turkey, concluded within the framework of the Covenant of the League of Nations, and registered and published in accordance with the provisions of Article 18 of the Covenant.

In the exceptional cases provided for in the preceding paragraph, the limitations laid down in Articles 10 to 18 of the present Convention shall not be applicable.

Notwithstanding the prohibition of passage laid down in paragraph 2 above, vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers, whether they are Black Sea Powers or not, which have become separated from their bases, may return thereto.

Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.

Good points Ensig. I don't think Romania has the desire to re-incorporate Moldova. Romania has come a long way. Moldava has not and is still fairly backwater by comparison to Romania and Ukraine. In any case, if that was a consideration by Romania and Moldova (doubtful), that train has left the station and it's too late for Moldova now, 'if' Putin decides to roll up Moldova later this month or next.

Although I did travel around Romania when I lived there (way back when), I never made that far north into the Moldavian region. We considered that part of Romania more shit holy than other parts of Romania.