quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
I guess I'm old enough to remember when $50 BILLION wasn't considered "small stuff".

Aren't we all? But the GDP of the US was nearly $24 TRILLION at the end of 2021, and the national debt was $30 TRILLION in February of 2022.
http://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

For those who haven't looked it up recently, a trillion is one thousand billion.

Yes, we have bigger problems. No, they can't all be blamed on Ukraine.

quote:

can't all be blamed on Ukraine.

Can if you have the MSM backing every move you make and down playing every gaff you make.

After Putin-Xi Call, Gazprom CEO Pledges "Energy Stability For Russia's Friends"

https://www.zerohedge.com/ener...lity-russias-friends

"Today’s developments are going to be a massive shock for gas prices as Europe is now going to struggle to refill its storages ahead of next winter if this reduction is for an extended period of time," ICIS analyst Tom Marzec-Manser described to the FT on Wednesday of the previously reported Gazprom announced major reduction in natural gas flows through Nord Stream 1 to Germany, which took effect Thursday.

At this point, now nearly four months into the invasion of Ukraine, Russian gas flows to European clients have plummeted to their lowest levels since 2014, Bloomberg has noted. But at the same time, Reuters is reporting that "Russia’s Gazprom increased gas supplies to China by 67% in the first five months of this year, the company’s CEO Alexei Miller said on Thursday."

It was also on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their second phone call since the Ukraine war began. Xi told Putin that China is "willing to continue to offer mutual support (to Russia) on issues concerning core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security," as quoted in state broadcaster CCTV.

Just on the heels of the Putin-Xi call, Gazprom essentially declared no gas for Western Europe while assuring "energy stability for Russia's friends". CEO of Gazprom Alexey Miller had this to say before the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which is continuing through the end of the week:

"Russia represents energy stability, and also Russia is a supplier of energy stability for its friends," he said.

Miller also spoke of "opportunities" for the "redistribution of world energy resources" - apparently with friendly nations like China or Hungary in mind. According to his words as summarized in TASS:

Miller noted that global gas consumption for 5 months of 2022 decreased by 25 bln cubic meters, where 24 bln cubic meters fell on the EU countries. The EU’s plans to increase the production of biomethane by 17 bln cubic meters will require 60 years, since the existing plants produce only 3 bln cubic meters per year.

Demand for commodities is currently replacing demand for foreign exchange reserves, Miller said. Russia now has a window of opportunity in the redistribution of world energy resources for fair supplies.

As for the Putin-Xi call, Xi praised the "good momentum of development" in bilateral relations since the start of the year "in the face of global turmoil and changes." And notably he said Beijing is willing to "intensify strategic coordination between the two countries."

Crucially, Gazprom had inked an unprecedented natural gas supply deal with China within the first week of the Feb.24 invasion, at a moment the first wave of Western sanctions were being readied and implemented.

As Bloomberg reported at the time of the Feb. 28 Gazprom-China deal in the works: "Gazprom PJSC took a new step toward potentially its biggest-ever natural gas supply deal with China as nations around the world sever economic and political ties with Russia over the country’s invasion of Ukraine."

"The Russian gas giant signed a contract to design the Soyuz Vostok pipeline across Mongolia toward China, Gazprom said in a statement," the report continued. "If Russia reaches a new supply agreement with China, Soyuz Vostok will carry as much as 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to the Asian nation."

In landmark deal signed in Cairo, Israel to export natural gas, via Egypt, to Europe

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...tural-gas-to-europe/

Israel, Egypt and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding on Wednesday in Cairo that will see Israel export its natural gas to the bloc for the first time.

The landmark agreement will increase liquified natural gas sales to EU countries, which are aiming to reduce dependence on supply from Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine.

Last year, the EU imported roughly 40 percent of its gas from Russia. It has faced energy difficulties since imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow.

The agreement will see Israel send gas via Egypt, which has facilities to liquify it for export via sea.

Energy Minister Karine Elharrar said the signing of the MOU had cemented Israel’s role on the global energy stage.

More at linK:

The 'craziest thing' about seizing Russian superyachts is the US has to pay for them, Biden's national security advisor says on hot mic

https://www.businessinsider.co...jake-sullivan-2022-6

*Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the US has cracked down on Russian oligarchs and their assets.

*That crackdown has led to numerous seizures of luxurious superyachts from ports around the world.

*The US is on the hook for upkeep of those vessels, Biden's national security adviser said Thursday.

The worldwide crackdown on Russian assets has deprived many of that country's oligarchs of their superyachts, but those seizures also have a cost for the US, which has to pay for the upkeep of the vessels it seizes.

Speaking moments before the beginning of an event at the Center for a New American Security on Thursday, Jake Sullivan, who is national security adviser to President Joe Biden, mentioned the ongoing Operation KleptoCapture, a Justice Department-led effort targeting Russian "elites, proxies, and oligarchs" with sanctions and civil and criminal asset seizures.

Sullivan appeared to reference the recent seizure of the Amadea, a 348-foot yacht owned by sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. The US moved to seize the yacht in early May and it sailed for the US in early June, after Fiji's supreme court authorized its seizure.

"I just wasn't aware how many super yachts there were in the world," Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer of the CNAS, tells Sullivan on the recording. "I mean the size of these things, the value of these things is unbelievable."

"I know. It's so ridiculous, but you know what the craziest thing is? When we seize one, we have to pay for upkeep," Sullivan says in reply. "The federal government pays for upkeep because under the kind of forfeiture rubric, so like some people are basically being paid to maintain Russian superyachts on behalf of the United States government."

Fontaine interviewed Sullivan during the event Thursday morning. The audio of their exchange was broadcast on a livestream, which was taken offline shortly after Sullivan's comments were publicized. A spokesperson for the think tank called the takedown a "honest mistake" and it was later reposted.

Sullivan's mention of a "forfeiture rubric" was likely a reference to the US's government's responsibility for maintaining property it seizes in good condition.

The US Marshals Service, which takes control of seized property, has a network of private contractors that often do the day-to-day maintenance. Seized assets are often stored to make that work easier, with cars placed in specialized lots or boats put in dry docks.

"If there's something that has to be done, like make sure the property doesn't flood or make sure the water's turned off in the winter or something — that's the Marshals' responsibility," Sarah Krissoff, a former federal prosecutor, told Insider's Jacob Shamsian this spring.

^^^ This is how you know the Bidenites suffer from a severe redneck deficiency. Any self-respecting good ol' boy would've had them parted out and the parts on Ebay by now.

Idea: Refit Russian super yachts with guns and missiles and have them replace the failed littoral combat ships the Navy bought.

Ukraine – the situation (June 20, 2022)

The Ukrainian General Staff in its evening report voiced concern that ‘Kharkiv will again be a battle zone’

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/...uation-june-20-2022/

Asia Times is publishing Ukraine war situation reports based on multiple military and think tank sources. It’s our unvarnished bid to cut through the propaganda and misinformation of all sides that contribute to the fog of war.

Summary/overview

NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg forecast a “long war” in Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in full Churchillian pose, chimed in on cue: “We need to steel ourselves for a long war.”

A new front? Lithuania has banned the transit of sanctioned goods from Russia to the enclave of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg). Russia sees it as a violation of the EU agreement in 2004 that saw the EU expand to include the Baltic States and says it will break the “blockade”. Note that Lithuania is a NATO member.

Russian forces have gained added ground in the Severodonetsk region and – according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense – have pushed through the town of Toshkivka southeast of Lysychansk.

Heavy fighting and artillery fire continue along the entire line of control northwest of Popasna. The main road from the transportation hub of Bakhmut to Lysychansk has been rendered impassable by Russian forces.

Russian forces have stepped up artillery fire and reconnaissance probes north to northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) in its evening report voiced concern that “Kharkiv will again be a battle zone.”


Ukrainian forces counter-attacked in the south and gained ground in the Zaporizhia oblast according to the UGS.

Center/east

The focus of battle in Severodonetsk continues to be the Azot fertilizer plant. As in Mariupol, Russian forces are tightening the encirclement but appear in no hurry to deliver any decisive blows. Several suburbs of Severodonetsk have been overrun. However, with the capture of the town of Toshkivka on the west side of the Donets River, any attack on Lysychansk will now come from the southwest.

Farther west, closer to the exit of the Donbas salient, the main road to Lysychansk has been cut.

Farther north, Russian forces continue to grind closer to the transport hub of Sloviansk.

Very heavy artillery fire is reported by the UGS, but the progress of Russian forces is halting.

South

Anecdotal reporting suggests that counterattacks by Ukrainian forces may have advanced several kilometers into Russian-held territory in the Zaporizhia area, but this is unconfirmed.

Assessment

Albeit continuing a slow grind, Russian forces’ progress in the Donbas is again noticeable and a decision appears to have been made not only to disrupt but to cut resupply to Ukrainian forces in the easternmost part of the Donbas salient.

The critical issue going forward is the availability of trained manpower. A war of attrition does not favor Ukraine.

By their own count, the Ukrainians have lost up to 50% of their weapons and equipment to date. NATO countries over time can replace that.

What cannot be replaced is lost manpower. Yet, oddly, as a ranking US intelligence officer observes, “the general tenor of commentary is that the Ukrainians can keep fighting if we just give them the weapons – but the Russians, with a population roughly four times that of Ukraine, are assessed to be on the brink of a total organizational and demographic götterdämmerung.”

We are not ready to raise a huge alarm over a threatened Russian attempt to break the Kaliningrad blockade. However, Kaliningrad is the base for an SS-26 nuclear missile brigade. In March nuclear maneuvers were conducted there and two SU-24s flew out over the Baltic loaded with nukes.

Other

TASS has reported that the deputy commander of the Azov Regiment, Svyatoslav Palamar, and the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade, Serhiy Volynsky, both of whom surrendered in May at the Azov steel plant, have been transferred to Russia and are being held in Lefortovo prison in Moscow in anticipation of their trials.

And there will likely be show trials of captured American ex-soldiers.

Ukraine – the situation (June 22, 2022)

Capture of Severodonetsk shows Russians’ strategy – war of attrition in materiel and manpower terms – works

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/...uation-june-22-2022/

Summary/Overview
The city of Severodonetsk has been taken by Russian forces with the exception of holdouts in the Azot chemical fertilizer plant. That’s according to the Ukrainian head of the Luhansk Oblast administration, Serhii Haidai.

After pushing through the towns of Toshkivka and Myrna Dolyna, Russian forces are moving to surround from the south and west Severodonetsk’s twin city, Lysychansk, on the opposite side of the Donets River.



The main line of communication between the transport hub of Bakhmut in the west and Lysychansk in the east has been cut by Russian troops and rendered impassable.

Russian air force strikes on a shipbuilding plant in the Ukrainian port of Mikolaiv in the South killed as many as 500 troops of the Ukrainian 59th Mechanized Brigade on Tuesday, the Russian defense ministry claimed during its daily press briefing on Wednesday. There is independent verification of the strikes but not of the claimed casualty numbers.

The disruption of critical supplies by rail from Russia to its exclave of Kaliningrad through EU and NATO member Lithuania has been termed a “blockade” by Russia. The head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, said, “Of course, Russia will respond to hostile actions. Appropriate measures are in the works, and will be adopted in the near future.”

On a strategic scale, President Putin announced that Russia had “successfully tested the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile. According to the plan, the first such system will enter combat duty at the end of the year,”

The Sarmat was test-fired in April.

Center/east
After Russian forces pushed through Toshivka and took a line of small towns (Ustynivka, Pidlisne, Myrna Dolyna) that run from the Donets river westward towards the main road from Bahkmut, they have pressed farther north and are moving into Bila Hora, a town on the outskirts of Lysychansk. Fighting continued in Borivske and around Voronove, south of Severodonetsk on the east side of the Donets.

Further west, south of Izium the Russian drive on Slovyansk is making no significant progress as Russian assaults on several small towns were repulsed.

Fighting for terrain north, northeast and east of Kharkiv is stepping up. Fighting was reported in the town of Yuchenkove, located about 50 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv.

This indicates penetration of the Russian lines by Ukrainian forces and a direct threat to a major Russian line of control for operations in eastern Ukraine.

Artillery strikes on Kharkiv and suburbs continued.

South
The UGS reports that fighting continues north-east of Kherson and that the Russians have pushed the Ukrainian forces back across the Inhulets River and regained possession of the east bank.

Artillery strikes continue across much of the line of contact, from Mykolaiv through Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk.

Assessment
After a slow gain and near-standstill over the previous two weeks, Russian forces appear to have decisively gained the upper hand in the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk battle.

With the loss of Severodonetsk, Lysychansk now seems to be falling more quickly than had been expected.

The war of attrition, in both materiel and manpower terms, that the Russians have chosen to adopt favors them over Ukrainian forces. Unless the Ukrainians can regain some mobility, they will be ground down – much in line with the announced Russian war aim of destroying Ukrainian military assets and capabilities.

That’s the reality. But as a US military intelligence observer notes, “in the meantime, there remains the cognitive dissonance from the [Western] reporting: The Russians are suffering from poor leadership, bad morale and poor weapons and the Ukrainians have superior weapons, superior leadership, off-the-scale morale and the home-field advantage. Yet the Russians are, at least for now, winning.”

Politics and finance
The Russian ruble, declared rubble by the US President months ago, is at its strongest against the US dollar in seven years, trading at the June 2015 level.

On the political side, Clement Beaune, French minister of state for European affairs, speaking of entry of Ukraine into the EU prior to the June 23/24 EU meeting, said: “There is no expedited procedure, there is no King’s Pass.… They need to finish the war first, to rebuild the country, to meet all the democratic and economic requirements. This will take time. But we are giving this signal of openness.”

Ukraine – the situation June 24, 2022

Severodonetsk is not a Pyrrhic but a telling Russian victory

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/...uation-june-24-2022/

Summary/overview

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) has ordered the withdrawal of forces from Severodonetsk.



Russian forces south of Lysychansk have closed the corridor (“salient within the [Donbas] salient”) from Myrna Dolyna south through Hirske to Zolote [see map 1 and comparison map 2 of 48 hours earlier] and, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, have trapped some 2000 Ukrainian troops (four battalions and an artillery unit) and foreign fighters. The closure of the salient but not the number of troops encircled has been confirmed by the UGS.



Russian forces are pressing north out of Toshkivka into the southern approaches to Lysychansk and are swinging west and north to cut off Severodonetsk’s twin city entirely. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast head Sergyi Haidai said on Telegram that the Ukrainian forces might soon retreat from Lysychansk since their defensive positions had been destroyed and there is “little sense” in staying.

Ukrainian sources report that Russia has moved an S-300 air defense unit into just-occupied Severodonetsk. The S-300 would be layered with shorter-range systems (Pantsir), provide air denial and make the use of long-range artillery by the Ukrainians more difficult and less accurate.

Russian air defenses have been beefed up across the board and have begun to effectively attrit Ukrainian drones. The Ukrainians are currently flying only 20 to 30 sorties per day. Russians sorties number 300 per day – of all types.

The ability to successfully deny airspace to drones will be of significance as it will severely limit the effectiveness of long-range artillery systems such as HIMARS.

According to US sources, the first HIMARS multiple rocket launch systems (all four promised?) have been delivered to Ukraine.

Belarus is conducting maneuvers and mobilization exercises in southeastern Belarus, directly north of Kiev. This appears to be designed to tie down some Ukrainian forces, but Belarus President Lukashenko is unlikely to be prodded into attacking Ukraine. The exercises will wrap up on July 1.

Center/east

In addition to activities in the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk area, Russian forces are continuing to press north from the area of Popasna and have the entire main road from Bakhmut to Lysychansk under fairly constant artillery fire.

On the north side of the Donbas salient Russian forces continue to position toward and slowly advance under heavy artillery cover to attack Slovyansk. But there was no substantive ground force activity in that area.

There were no substantive movements by either Russian or Ukrainian forces north and northeast of Kharkiv. But intermittent Russian artillery and rocket fire on suburbs of Kharkiv continues.

South

Russian forces continue to strengthen their defensive positions and are moving more forces and gear into the Kherson area. There was no significant ground activity.

Assessment

There is an argument put forward by some credible analysts that the Russian victory at Severodonetsk is a Pyrrhic victory, that they have spent so much time and so many troops and ordnance that it cannot be considered a decisive victory.

The argument overlooks several points.

First, the implied historical reference makes no sense. Pyrrhus of Epirus in his victorious but debilitating engagements with the Romans was the demographically and economically weaker party. The victorious Russians are the equivalent of the Romans, superior in manpower and economic reserves.

Second, while the Russians in the battle for Severodonetsk certainly incurred significant losses, there is no doubt by any objective observer that the slow-grind, heavily artillery-supported Russian advance led to much heavier losses – of manpower, in particular – on the Ukrainian side.

Indeed, military analyst Colonel Reisner of the Austrian Military Academy argues, the Russian slow-grind strategy was precisely designed to inflict maximum destruction of Ukrainian military assets: “The Russians have in effect operationally encircled [eingekessel] the Donbas salient. They can open and close the entrance to the cauldron at will. They have not closed it because the Ukrainians continually are sending in soldiers and weapons, which the Russian can then destroy. They’ve got the Ukrainians where they want them, in a cauldron.”

Third, as any reader of Clausewitz will of, course, note, a victory is a victory and a loss is a loss and it tells on morale. Says an American observer: “The Russians and Ukrainians stood toe-to-toe and the Russians came out ahead.”

Lastly, in a war of attrition, the type of war that the Russian have forced upon the Ukrainians and that the Ukrainians have accepted to fight, the country with four times the population and ten times the economic power will win.

By their own count, the Ukrainians have taken large losses. By their own count, the Ukrainians, to speak of only one weapons system, need one hundred Himars or 270mm MRLS units, not 8 or 10 or 12.

They cannot trade numbers over the long run. A war that lasts more than the next few months will require that they make some effort to keep their more experienced soldiers. At an operational level, they need to consider collapsing the Donbas salient and withdrawing to a defensive line farther west that they can hold.

Strategically, Zelensky needs a better plan.

Ukraine: the situation (June 27, 2022)
As the fight for Lysychansk unfolds in Russia’s favor

Zelensky pleads with G7 for more advanced weapons

https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/...uation-june-27-2022/

Summary/Overview

A second sub-salient of the Donbas salient, centered on the town of Borivske southeast of Lysychansk, has been closed by Russian forces. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) announced that Borivske had fallen.

Most of the 2,000 Ukrainian troops trapped since last week in the Hirske to Zolote sub-salient have been cleared out. The escape gap to the west has narrowed to ten from 25 kilometers a week ago.





Russian troops are closing on the city of Lsyschansk from the south, southwest and northwest. The main road from Bakhmut to Lysychansk is closed, and the resupply of Ukrainian forces remaining in Lysychansk is forced onto small back roads.

The Russian push southeast from Izyum toward the transport hub of Slovyansk continues. The UGS reports massing of Russian forces south and southwest of Lyman for a pincer move on Slovyansk.

In the Northeast, Russian forces continue to build out defensive positions north and northeast of Kharkiv. Russian artillery is continually hitting the northern suburbs of Kharkiv.

In the South, nine Russian Onyx cruise missiles struck the city of Mykolaiv. The city’s mayor has reiterated his call for citizens to evacuate yet some 230,000 remain. There is growing speculation by Western military analysts that Mykolaiv and then Odessa will be major Russian targets after Donbas operations wind down.

The G7 meeting at Elmau Castle (Bavaria) listened to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

He stated Ukrainian troops would have a much harder time fighting against Russian forces once harsh winter conditions take hold and urged the G7 to do their utmost to end the conflict by the end of the year while asking for anti-aircraft defense systems as well as unspecified security guarantees.

According to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Zelensky is intent on gaining the upper hand over Russia as quickly as possible. “He was very much focused on trying to ensure that Ukraine is in as advantageous a position on the battlefield as possible in the next months as opposed to the next years, because he believes that a grinding conflict is not in the interest of the Ukrainian people,” Sullivan told CNN.

Russia fired air-to-surface missiles from Tu-95 bombers into Kiev, claiming the target was the Artem missiles production facility.

Center/East

Lysychansk, the twin city of Severodonetsk, is now under siege and cut off from most supplies. The Ukrainian head of the Luhansk Oblast, Sergyi Haidai, has asked all civilians – estimated at about 10,000-15,000 – to leave the city. There is heavy artillery fire into Lysychansk from the now Russian-occupied Severodonetsk across the Donets River.

The choice for the UGS now is to conduct another prolonged defense, which would be costly in materiel and manpower, or to withdraw over small roads toward the west that for now remain passable.

Assessment

The fight for Lysychansk is unfolding much more rapidly in Russia’s favor than did the exceedingly slow grind at Severodonetsk.

Another slow-grind siege will play heavily into Russia’s hands. The UGS needs to find a way to regain some mobility and initiative and reopen supply lines or pull out troops, collapse the salient and withdraw to a more defensible perimeter.

Hopes that the arrival of new weapons will turn the tide are misplaced. The arrival of such arms might allow for a counteroffensive from a stronger line of defense rather than simply leading to another defeat and loss of morale if or when the new weapons are introduced haphazardly.

But talk of ending the war by winter with Ukrainian forces emerging victorious and having regained the ground now lost seems a stretch by any count. That Zelensky talks that talk is understandable but is hardly realistic.

Contrary to such talk and the pinning of expectations on the arrival of “game-changer” weapons systems from the West, massive losses of manpower, including their best soldiers, is the Ukrainians’ principal battlefield issue.

Twelve modern multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) are to be delivered by the US, Britain and Germany over the coming months. The US and Germany will also send more howitzers. But Ukraine needs enough experienced soldiers to fire them.

US President Joe Biden apparently will announce this week that Ukraine will receive units of the NASAMS air defense system – a joint Norwegian-US distributed and networked medium to long-range surface-to-air missile defense system.

It consists of an AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile (AMRAAM) and AIM-9X air-to-air missiles reconfigured for ground-to-air launch, and a US active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and is capable of hitting targets from as close as several kilometers to over 100 kilometers away.

The targets would presumably be Russian strategic bombers and missiles. Given the current scope of weapons systems deployed by both sides, the air defense systems promised by Biden might indicate significant conflict escalation by NATO. This week’s NATO summit might further clarify the alliance’s plans.

At the G7 meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that the policies of all members are “very much aligned… We are discussing all the topics that are on the agenda, especially staying united in supporting Ukraine.”

He added that the G7 is “taking tough decisions” to help Ukraine while avoiding “a big conflict between Russia and NATO.” It remains to be seen if such conflict limitation is possible.

Ukraine – the situation (July 5, 2022)

After the fall of Lysychansk, the issue going forward is qualified manpower and things look bad for Ukraine

https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/...tuation-july-4-2022/

Summary/overview

On July 3, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces (and the “People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic”) had established full control over the city of Lysychansk and a number of nearby settlements, the largest of which are Novodruzhesk to the northeast and Maloriazantseve on the southeast side of Lysychansk.

After initially denying the fall of Lysychansk, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) confirmed the news within hours of the Russian announcement.

The issue was settled rapidly. On July 1 evening, Russian forces moved in force on Lysychansk from the northeast and southwest and reached the city center by mid-day July 2.

By mid-day July 3, the 180 square-kilometers area from the Donets River to the line of Bilohorivka in the north to the vicinity of Verkhnokamianka due south indicated in our map of June 30 (and roughly coincident with the Luhansk – Donetsk oblasts border) had been occupied and cleared of Ukrainian forces.



In its evening report of July 4, the UGS reports that “Russian forces are pushing the Ukrainian military to the Siversk-Fedorivka-Bakhmut line.”

The town of Siversk is regarded by analysts as the next Russian target. We regard another pincer move from the Popasna region north and the Lyman region south as equally likely.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense systems have intercepted eight multiple rocket launcher systems’ (MLRS) shells, including four rockets from the US HIMARS multiple launch rocket system in the Stakhanov region of the Luhansk oblast.

This report is unconfirmed by independent sources, but it might indicate that the first HIMARS systems have arrived near front lines.

There is a substantial increase in Russian artillery fire in the Kharkiv region. More likely than not, this is an attempt to tie down Ukrainian forces in the area. We expect the next major Russian move will take place in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv regions.

Assessment

The rapid Russian victory at Lysychansk and the substantial territorial gains within little more than 48 hours have surprised most observers.

Why be surprised? The Russian offensive in the eastern parts of the Donbas salient commenced in late May after the victory in the battle of Rubizhne.

The direct Russian ground assault on Severodonetsk, the administrative center of Luhansk oblast started on May 27. At the time, the city had not been encircled and attack proved a hard slog.

Key to the Russian capture of Severodonetsk a month later on June 24 proved two flanking maneuvers and patience and trust in Russian literally age-old tactics of overwhelming artillery fire, even direct fire as practiced in World War II.

The flanking maneuvers were 1) the surprise move into the Popasna region and the move into Lyman which allowed very substantial disruption of Ukrainian supply lines and 2) the systematic closing of two sub-salients of the Donbas main salient in the Hirske-Zolote and then the Borivske direction.

Not only did these Russian moves isolate Severodonetsk, but they also prepared the attack on Lysychansk and in the process led to the elimination of at least 2000 Ukrainian troops from the battlefields.

On June 22, the UGS said they had lost control of the settlements of Toshkivka and Myrna Dolyna south of Lysychansk. On June 23, Russian forces cut off and surrounded the towns of Hirske and Zolote and captured them by the next day.

On June 24, Ukrainian Luhansk Governor Haidai announced that Ukrainian forces were ordered to withdraw from the city of Severodonetsk.

On June 25, Russian forces took full control of the city. But as noted, this was a month-long war of attrition. By contrast, the battle of Lysychansk and capture by Russian forces of surrounding territory took less than a week.

The issue going forward is qualified manpower, indeed, manpower, period. In a war of attrition, other things being equal, the side with the larger manpower reserves wins.

Continual claims by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, by other Ukrainian officials and by US and NATO officials that it’s weapons systems that matter – more HIMARS, more howitzers, more tanks – are, militarily speaking, nonsense talk. In fact, worse than that: they’re a cover-up for expected failure and an incompetent net assessment.

We commend to readers a competent piece of writing by a former US Marine Colonel and trainer of Ukrainian forces entitled, “Timing is Not on Kyiv’s Side.” It’s as scary as it is sad and should be read everywhere from the White House to the bunkers at Mons. The publisher is the Modern War Institute at West Point, the US Military Academy.

https://mwi.usma.edu/time-is-n...ttrition-in-ukraine/

^^^ You know, those Asia Times articles are pretty long, so I can see why they'd wanted to wittle things down.

The thing is, they're lifted wholesale from the daily summaries on the war in Ukraine at militaryland.net - except that the last third or so (which has recently reported Ukrainian gains in the south) is completely excised. It also looks to me as if the analysts' references to weakness or problems in the Russian forces and their supply systems are not presented as they are in the original.

I have no connection to either source, but if anyone would like to see the original or their current daily summary, check http://militaryland.net

Meanwhile, Putin is getting more and more squirrely or is facing more and more domestic problems - 'cause thoughtcrime is, no kiddin', more and more a jailable offense in Russia.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/puti...ickly-120015487.html

For all of China's professed neutrality on Ukraine, a Chinese newspaper isn't going to balance information that makes things look bad for the West.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
For all of China's professed neutrality on Ukraine, a Chinese newspaper isn't going to balance information that makes things look bad for the West.

Founded in 1995 as a printed broadsheet newspaper, Asia Times relaunched in 2016 and developed into the largest English-language pan-Asia digital news platform.

Asia Times’ two main newsrooms and social media hubs are in Bangkok and Hong Kong. These are supported by bureaus in Seoul, Beijing, Singapore, and New York.

In total, Asia Times has more than 100 commentators, reporters, editors and multimedia producers working across the globe. Their work is published at www.asiatimes.com, the main website, and at social media sites on Facebook, Twitter.


Asia Times is owned by Asia Times Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong company holding multimedia and public relations assets.

https://asiatimes.com/about-us/

quote:

a Hong Kong company

Yep.

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

quote:

a Hong Kong company

Yep.

Well what do you know. It looks as if they are reporting both sides of the story. Better than what we get with our own media.


Snake Island’s recapture a big bite back at Russia

Ukraine’s reclamation of island has shaken the Black Sea’s balance of power and could shift perceptions of the global food crisis

https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/...bite-back-at-russia/

On February 24, the first day of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops occupied Snake Island, a small but strategically important outpost in the Black Sea about 70 nautical miles south of Odessa.

The 13 Ukrainian troops stationed there were reported to have “twice bravely repulsed the attacks of the Russian occupiers” but were unable to continue fighting because they ran out of ammunition.

Pictures of Ukrainian defenders defiantly giving a Russian warship the finger and audio of them telling it to “go fuck yourself” went viral. The defenders were believed to have all been killed and were posthumously honored by the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky – but have subsequently been reported to have survived.

So when it was reported on June 30 that Ukraine had retaken Snake Island, it was an enormous and much-needed morale boost. And, as the war on land drags on, this success at sea has strategic implications far beyond the Black Sea that will resonate in the months, or even years, to come.

By taking Snake Island so early in the invasion, Russia secured a crucial piece of the puzzle that enabled Moscow to exercise control over the northwestern Black Sea. For Moscow, this was of operational and strategic importance for three reasons. It meant that the Russian Navy could contribute to the bombardment of Ukraine with cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, it gave the invaders the ability to threaten Odessa with an amphibious assault and enabled them to deny access to and from Ukrainian ports – in other words, to blockade Ukraine.

While most commentators have focused on the war on land, Ukraine has been trying hard to undermine Russia’s naval dominance. The first major victory for Kiev was sinking the cruiser Moskva on April 14.

In addition to the prestige of sinking the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, this demonstrated that the Russian navy could not operate safely in the vicinity of Ukraine’s coast due to the permanent threat that anti-ship missiles represented – particularly the Ukrainian-developed Neptune and western-supplied Harpoon missiles.

The Moskva was an important piece of the Russian long-range theater air defense system. As a result of its loss, Snake Island’s strategic importance increased as a base for electronic warfare and air defense systems, and Ukraine had attempted to regain control over the island several times.

But now the Ukrainian flag is flying again over Snake Island – although Ukraine is not expected to station troops in the short term. What matters most, beyond the symbol, is not a Ukrainian presence on the rock but the fact that Russian forces cannot benefit from its strategic position anymore.

From the military to the diplomatic arena
Russia’s loss of control of the northwestern Black Sea had already been flagged by British intelligence on June 21. But until Ukraine reoccupied Snake Island, Russia was still hoping to maintain its ability to blockade Ukraine and was hastily laying more mines.

Blockading Ukraine had become a powerful blackmailing tool for Moscow, which has tried to weaponize food and to put the blame on Western sanctions in a bid to rally the Global South against the West.

It is striking that Russia’s sudden declaration that it is willing to “allow” for the free passage of grain from Ukrainian ports coincides with its now proven inability to fully control the approaches, or deny access, to Odessa (although the Russian navy still poses a substantial threat in the area).

Further to this strategic setback, Russia will now try to keep the upper hand in the diplomatic arena by blaming Ukraine and the West for the global food crisis and shifting responsibility for the need to demine the corridor.

The ability of the West to facilitate the establishment of a safe corridor will be crucial, not only in “alleviating the global food crisis” but also in exposing Moscow’s diplomatic game and underlining that – as NATO stressed in its Madrid summit declaration – the food crisis is entirely Russia’s doing.

This is particularly important in regard to the Global South, whose criticism of Putin’s war has been minimal so far.

A successful operation to restore the free flow of grain from Ukraine (whether via the Turkish Straits or using alternative routes) will further isolate Russia on the world stage. But any setback or failure will play in favor of Moscow’s narrative that it’s the West’s fault.

Long wars are rarely won only in light of military successes – economic dominance and political influence play a crucial role. Whereas the West, as a coalition of seafaring nations dominates the global maritime order, it has not yet managed to isolate Russia on the diplomatic stage.

This is how the fate of a small rock in the northwestern Black Sea has not only shaken the balance of power between Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea but also the diplomatic status quo.

The political confrontation between Russia and the West on the world stage has only just begun, and the victory over Snake Island might well have initiated a tide whose long-term effects are still to be fully comprehended.

Here is another one:
https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/...s-long-term-decline/

War fueling Russian oil’s long-term decline

Russian oil production close to same level as before the war but its influence in global markets is shrinking

I'll just let ya'll ruminate on this for a bit. Hmmm, wonder where all that scratch is gonna come from? How about US inflation at, oh I don't know, say 20%+?

For the big guy?

White House Unveils $400M More In Military Aid To Ukraine, Marking 15th Package

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...marking-15th-package

The Washington Post, CNBC and others are reporting Friday that the Biden White House is readying yet another $400 million weapons package for Ukraine, which will mark the 15th round of security assistance since the Russian invasion.

A senior defense official has been cited as saying the specific weapons will be tailored to repel a broader Russian assault in the Donbas, though the recent weeks of fighting have made clear that battlefield momentum is currently with the Russians.

"Heavy artillery platforms, like howitzers and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, sit high on Ukrainian military wish lists," CNBC writes, citing the source. "The official said the latest security package will include four additional HIMARS, which brings the total number of HIMARS transfers to Ukraine from U.S. arsenals to 12."

The total in US military and humanitarian aid so more is more than $7 billion given since February.

The longer-range HIMARS are being sought by the Zelensky government as potentially game-changing given they allow the Ukrainians for the first time to strike Russian military stockpiles and command centers that extend deeper behind enemy lines.

Axios details of some of the major US-supplied currently operational in eastern Ukraine after the several rounds of weapons systems were transferred, and as Ukrainian troops get trained on them:

A senior defense official said the other eight systems are all operational, and that the pace of deliveries was dictated by the rate at which Ukrainian units are being trained to use the systems, which were not previously part of the Ukrainian arsenal.
The U.S. is also sending three tactical vehicles, spare parts and other equipment. The official would not say what type of artillery ammunition was being provided, only that it would allow for more precise targeting than had previously been possible.
At the same time, Americans are now flatly being told by the Biden administration that "we are in a time of war..." In a hard-hitting interview which put Biden official Heather Boushey on the defensive, she actually suggested the US is at war with Russia in Ukraine. Interestingly enough this comes a couple months after Biden admin and defense officials insisted it's not a proxy war. Well, which is it?

We are at war?... Really?

https://twitter.com/FinanceLan...marking-15th-package

Meanwhile, as more and more billions are now routinely shoveled off to a foreign country which many Americans without doubt still can't find on a map, an op-ed in Defense One raises some of the obvious questions. An excerpt from the piece below:

"The most serious and talked-about risk is provoking a direct response from Moscow. President Biden insists that escalation risks are being carefully measured, yet Vladimir Putin has attempted to target Western supply lines to Kyiv, conducted strikes dangerously close to the borders of NATO member states, and taken to repeatedly reminding the world about Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Reassurances aside, conflict escalation is perilously hard to predict, frequently occurs beyond the control of the powers involved, and often defies the assumptions and cold logic justifying a given course of action. Amid increasing concerns for Putin’s state of mind, the risk calculus taking place in Washington could easily be off."

https://www.defenseone.com/ide...ance-ukraine/368896/