SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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Drill Here, Drill Now |
I’ve never heard/read a “target”. However, after all of the winning Trump has done on our behalf the past 3+ years he’s earned my trust. I’m hoping the US’ numbers follow the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantine numbers (Link). The ship had 3700 passengers and crew, and a lot of the passengers were in the high risk pool aged 60 and above. They were in a confined space and sharing lots of air. The event lasted almost a month from January 21 to February 20. The basic reproductive number (Ro) was initially 14.8 but by implementing isolation and quarantine it dropped to 1.78. They estimated that they saved over 2300 additional infections which translates to roughly (likely low end because it would've been overwhelming) preventing 46 deaths, 69 critical cases, 345 severe cases, 1840 mild cases.  Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer. | |||
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thin skin can't win |
About to figure out how broad that is. Oh - do get the whiplash supporting everything said by the man I think is right in overall management of a ridiculously impossible situation even when it shifts/opposes dramatically with guidance of other professionals or recent statements. I can't reconcile myself, but hopefully can with more TP and bourbon. In any order. You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02 | |||
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| Drill Here, Drill Now |
I saw a similar article on Bloomberg and I clicked on the link embedded in the article to find the actual study. In the study, Table 1 contained a list of the other comorbidities which Google translated as: * Cardiopatia ischemica (Ischemic heart disease) 33% * Fibrillazione atriale (A-fib) 24.5% * Ictus (stroke) 9.6% * pertensione arteriosa (hypertension) 76.1% - this one concerns me as 100 million Americans have it (including me). * Diabete mellito (Diabetes) 35.5% * Demenza (Dementia) 6.8% * BPCO (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) 13.2% * Cancro attivo negli ultimi 5 anni (Active cancer in the past 5 years) 20.3% * Epatopatia cronica (Chronic hepatopathy) 3.1% * Insufficienza renale cronica (Chronic renal failure) 18% Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer. | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
Pointers to data showing a nearly identical progression posted numerous times. Covid-19 in US and Canada - Real Time Updates With Credible Sources Cumulative cases: 03/15: 3684, 03/17: 6413, 03/19: 14287. More or less doubling every two days. Exponential growth. You can see it in the graph. Part of this is likely due to increased testing. Problem is: We don't know how much.
2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy As you'll see: They reacted seemingly quickly. Unfortunately, it would appear they underestimated the virulence of the disease. It was always one step ahead of them. There have been interviews with Italian medical authorities in which they've said as much--warning other countries not to make the same mistake they did. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Coin Sniper |
I was thinking more along the lines of how fast did they close borders, limit travel, start to quarantine, social distance, shut down gatherings etc. If I recall Italians are all about being social in big groups, streets and shops small, everyone in close proximity. Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys 343 - Never Forget Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive. | |||
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| Nullus Anxietas |
As I pointed out in my previous post: They moved quickly, but the "social distancing" thing may have been their biggest failure. My wife has friends and family all over Europe. When the Italian government first implemented a nationwide quarantine, Italians widely ignored it. My wife saw photos of cafes and the like still packed with people--until the Italian government added strict enforcement. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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A Grateful American |
I predict water will still make things wet, and some people still will not know to come in out of the rain. Let's look back on this post in a day or three and see how close I was. "the meaning of life, is to give life meaning" ✡ Ani Yehudi אני יהודי Le'olam lo shuv לעולם לא שוב! | |||
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| Member |
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free. | |||
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| Coin Sniper |
What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here. If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead? Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys 343 - Never Forget Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive. | |||
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| Member |
The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious. | |||
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| Member |
Today, a semi truck showed up in a local parking lot full of milk that was originally intended for now closed schools. It was posted on facebook and given away. Took about two hours to empty a full size semi trailer. Collecting dust. | |||
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| An investment in knowledge pays the best interest |
The stats mirror what Dr. Lorix said a couple days ago but her figure was slightly higher: 60% of those infected appear to be symptom free carriers. Probably why she is pleading for millennials to regard the latest public health instructions. Unfortunately she didn’t get the memo, relying on them to do the right thing doesn’t provide me with a great deal of confidence! | |||
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Nosce te ipsum |
I work security in a strip club on Delaware Avenue ... But I'll spare you the picture of me surrounded by bottles of Corona, using lacy undergarments as breathing masks ... | |||
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Member |
Definitely life-sustaining............... "No matter where you go - there you are" | |||
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Seeker of Clarity |
So I wonder,.. without symptoms, does the body still detect and kill the virus??, or do they just have that sucker as a parasite ongoing, passing it along to others forever? I would think, -- and HOPE, the latter.  | |||
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Telecom Ronin |
PA has ranges on their public land for hunters. If you already have a hunting or fishing lic it's free if not it's $25. You can buy them at Walmart or online. | |||
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| An investment in knowledge pays the best interest |
r0gue, There are different types of asymptomatic carriers. Those that have the virus and progress towards being symptomatic and those that won't ever demonstrate symptoms (technically disease free but not pathogen-free) whose immune systems eliminate the virus relatively quickly. Age is a primary factor in estimating the strength of one's immune system. All viruses replicate intracellularly and typically the symptoms one experiences are a result of the expansion of the virus (destroying one's cells in layman's terms) and/or the immune system reacting to the infection. nCov-19 or SARS-CoV-2 is not a latent virus and thus doesn't integrate with one's genome. The possibility of reinfection was significantly hyped for a while, but unless robust mutation occurs (providing a lack of antigenic recognition) that's highly unlikely. Those infected will not pass it along forever regardless of whether they become symptomatic or remain symptom free. Secondary vectors (different than fomites) can act like viral harbors in the environment so further research needs to be conducted on that front. Hope this explanation helps. | |||
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Member |
There are 60 so far in Illinois. My niece is in the Illinois Air Guard and I worry about her being in the middle of this mess. | |||
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Yeah, that M14 video guy... |
Had a rough night last night. The tree pollen count is high right now and my head was cloudy. Had a splitting headache. Body aches (mostly my legs), ears feel pressure and I had alternating chills and sweats last night. No fever. No cough, no sore throat, no runny nose. Got home at midnight and it wasn’t that cold. I was shivering pretty hard. Took some Benadryl and fell asleep on top of the covers. Woke around 2:30 and changed, then got back into bed shivering again. I’ve never had shivers with allergies, but I don’t seem to check the boxes for WU FLU. Wife just checked my temp. 98.7. Owner, TonyBen, LLC, Type-07 FFL www.tonybenm14.com (Site under construction). e-mail: tonyben@tonybenm14.com | |||
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| Something wild is loose  |
Good rundown Dakor, thanks. I would add that there's no indication - yet - that the virus has crossed back into any non-human reservoir to date. Apparently it's getting pretty comfortable living in humans... "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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