Well I certainly feel better after seeing the co-morbidity numbers from Italy. We as a country have conquered obesity, diabetes and hypertension.

quote:

Originally posted by sigspecops:
I want to know and I think that we are all owed a definite answer to the question of when does this stupid shit stop? Exactly where in the curve are we looking at? We hear give us two weeks and we'll know more, well, what if they say we still need more time. How many deaths is acceptable? How many infected is going to be acceptable? I want to hear "In X amount of time whatever the virus is or isn't, we get off of the crazy train and get back to our lives."

This uncertainty is why the stock market is in free fall.

Unfortunately, no one can answer any of your questions right now. Until we start to see a definite leveling off of cases in the Western countries, the stock market (and all of us) will still be short on toilet paper.

My predictions:

- Most banks become drive-through-only in the next couple weeks.
- Nearly all schools canceled for remainder of school year (or online only).
- Grocery stores limit home deliveries to people over 60ish.
- More extreme forms of rationing and curbside pickup times at grocery stores in April.
- By May, total US cases are in the millions. Tens of thousands start to die in large cities as hospitals get overwhelmed.
- Throughout the US, many areas will be much less affected due to a variety of factors (warmer temperatures, less dense population, more self reliance, etc.)
- June/July we see a leveling off of new cases, causing the stock market to slowly start to recover.

Here is where things will get interesting...

If the virus is limited by temperature like we all hope, things could get better quickly. However, if not, and we (naturally) start to get complacent and see a resurgence in cases, massive additional layoffs, 20%+ unemployment, and a re-cratering of the stock market. Another round of social distancing/isolation and the economic carnage will be singular in our lifetimes.

I'm still hopeful that with our American ingenuity we may be able to come up with better treatments in short order. I just hope we have enough healthcare capacity and manufacturing infrastructure left when we come up with it. Otherwise, we're relying on luck or the grace of God to get out of this one.

Oh, jeez

quote:

Originally posted by sigspecops:
Okay, 15 days to slow the spread but what are the target numbers in 15 days and what if we're not there? Then what, how long do we do this?

I’ve never heard/read a “target”.

However, after all of the winning Trump has done on our behalf the past 3+ years he’s earned my trust.

I’m hoping the US’ numbers follow the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantine numbers (Link). The ship had 3700 passengers and crew, and a lot of the passengers were in the high risk pool aged 60 and above. They were in a confined space and sharing lots of air. The event lasted almost a month from January 21 to February 20. The basic reproductive number (Ro) was initially 14.8 but by implementing isolation and quarantine it dropped to 1.78. They estimated that they saved over 2300 additional infections which translates to roughly (likely low end because it would've been overwhelming) preventing 46 deaths, 69 critical cases, 345 severe cases, 1840 mild cases.

quote:

PA Gov. Fuckstick just closed all "non-life-sustaining" businesses in the state

About to figure out how broad that is.

Oh - do get the whiplash supporting everything said by the man I think is right in overall management of a ridiculously impossible situation even when it shifts/opposes dramatically with guidance of other professionals or recent statements. I can't reconcile myself, but hopefully can with more TP and bourbon. In any order.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

quote:

Originally posted by thunderson:

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
I want to know the number of positives that weren't part of that backlog.

Good point. Even without backlog, increases today only represent yesterday's tests at best. Increase of confirmed cases today of almost 5000 were tests performed previously.

Everyone is freaking out about Italy and telling us what happened there IS happening here. Yet I don't recall hearing how fast they reacted, or how many (+) migrated into that country as the outbreak began compared to what came here.

Need to know info...

According to FNC, 99.2% of those who succumbed in Italy had at least one serious underlying medical condition. 48% had at least three, which I presume is cardiopulmonary related. Oh and the average age of Italy’s population is greater than the U.S. by 7.4 years. Interesting how the latter variable has been ignored yet it is probably the most significant driver, besides co-morbidities.

I saw a similar article on Bloomberg and I clicked on the link embedded in the article to find the actual study. In the study, Table 1 contained a list of the other comorbidities which Google translated as:
* Cardiopatia ischemica (Ischemic heart disease) 33%
* Fibrillazione atriale (A-fib) 24.5%
* Ictus (stroke) 9.6%
* pertensione arteriosa (hypertension) 76.1% - this one concerns me as 100 million Americans have it (including me).
* Diabete mellito (Diabetes) 35.5%
* Demenza (Dementia) 6.8%
* BPCO (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) 13.2%
* Cancro attivo negli ultimi 5 anni (Active cancer in the past 5 years) 20.3%
* Epatopatia cronica (Chronic hepatopathy) 3.1%
* Insufficienza renale cronica (Chronic renal failure) 18%

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
Everyone is freaking out about Italy and telling us what happened there IS happening here.

Pointers to data showing a nearly identical progression posted numerous times.

Covid-19 in US and Canada - Real Time Updates With Credible Sources

Cumulative cases: 03/15: 3684, 03/17: 6413, 03/19: 14287. More or less doubling every two days. Exponential growth. You can see it in the graph.

Part of this is likely due to increased testing. Problem is: We don't know how much.

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
Yet I don't recall hearing how fast they reacted, or how many (+) migrated into that country as the outbreak began compared to what came here.

2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy

As you'll see: They reacted seemingly quickly. Unfortunately, it would appear they underestimated the virulence of the disease. It was always one step ahead of them.

There have been interviews with Italian medical authorities in which they've said as much--warning other countries not to make the same mistake they did.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

quote:

Originally posted by thunderson:

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
I want to know the number of positives that weren't part of that backlog.

Good point. Even without backlog, increases today only represent yesterday's tests at best. Increase of confirmed cases today of almost 5000 were tests performed previously.

Everyone is freaking out about Italy and telling us what happened there IS happening here. Yet I don't recall hearing how fast they reacted, or how many (+) migrated into that country as the outbreak began compared to what came here.

Need to know info...

According to FNC, 99.2% of those who succumbed in Italy had at least one serious underlying medical condition. 48% had at least three, which I presume is cardiopulmonary related. Oh and the average age of Italy’s population is greater than the U.S. by 7.4 years. Interesting how the latter variable has been ignored yet it is probably the most significant driver, besides co-morbidities.

I was thinking more along the lines of how fast did they close borders, limit travel, start to quarantine, social distance, shut down gatherings etc. If I recall Italians are all about being social in big groups, streets and shops small, everyone in close proximity.

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:
I was thinking more along the lines of how fast did they close borders, limit travel, start to quarantine, social distance, shut down gatherings etc. If I recall Italians are all about being social in big groups, streets and shops small, everyone in close proximity.

As I pointed out in my previous post: They moved quickly, but the "social distancing" thing may have been their biggest failure.

My wife has friends and family all over Europe. When the Italian government first implemented a nationwide quarantine, Italians widely ignored it. My wife saw photos of cafes and the like still packed with people--until the Italian government added strict enforcement.

I predict water will still make things wet, and some people still will not know to come in out of the rain.

Let's look back on this post in a day or three and see how close I was.

Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here.

If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead?

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here.

If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead?

The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious.

Today, a semi truck showed up in a local parking lot full of milk that was originally intended for now closed schools. It was posted on facebook and given away. Took about two hours to empty a full size semi trailer.

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:

quote:

Originally posted by Rightwire:

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here.

If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead?

The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious.

The stats mirror what Dr. Lorix said a couple days ago but her figure was slightly higher: 60% of those infected appear to be symptom free carriers. Probably why she is pleading for millennials to regard the latest public health instructions. Unfortunately she didn’t get the memo, relying on them to do the right thing doesn’t provide me with a great deal of confidence!

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
I emailed my boss and told him I needed more shoe covers.

I work security in a strip club on Delaware Avenue ... But I'll spare you the picture of me surrounded by bottles of Corona, using lacy undergarments as breathing masks ...

quote:

Originally posted by Woodman:
I work security in a strip club on Delaware Avenue ... But I'll spare you the picture of me surrounded by bottles of Corona, using lacy undergarments as breathing masks ...

Definitely life-sustaining...............

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious.

So I wonder,.. without symptoms, does the body still detect and kill the virus??, or do they just have that sucker as a parasite ongoing, passing it along to others forever? I would think, -- and HOPE, the latter.

quote:

Originally posted by Oat_Action_Man:
Fucking Tom Wolf.

Now my brand new STI is stuck at the FFL, although it arrived this afternoon. And I can't even go to the fucking range because it's shut down. Already couldn't go to the gym anymore.

And my taxes are sitting at the accountant, so wonder what's gonna happen with that.

Fuck. You.

PA has ranges on their public land for hunters. If you already have a hunting or fishing lic it's free if not it's $25. You can buy them at Walmart or online.

r0gue,

There are different types of asymptomatic carriers. Those that have the virus and progress towards being symptomatic and those that won't ever demonstrate symptoms (technically disease free but not pathogen-free) whose immune systems eliminate the virus relatively quickly. Age is a primary factor in estimating the strength of one's immune system. All viruses replicate intracellularly and typically the symptoms one experiences are a result of the expansion of the virus (destroying one's cells in layman's terms) and/or the immune system reacting to the infection.
nCov-19 or SARS-CoV-2 is not a latent virus and thus doesn't integrate with one's genome. The possibility of reinfection was significantly hyped for a while, but unless robust mutation occurs (providing a lack of antigenic recognition) that's highly unlikely. Those infected will not pass it along forever regardless of whether they become symptomatic or remain symptom free. Secondary vectors (different than fomites) can act like viral harbors in the environment so further research needs to be conducted on that front.
Hope this explanation helps.