When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

March 19, 2020, 11:20 PM

quote:
Originally posted by sigspecops:
Okay, 15 days to slow the spread but what are the target numbers in 15 days and what if we're not there? Then what, how long do we do this?

I’ve never heard/read a “target”.

However, after all of the winning Trump has done on our behalf the past 3+ years he’s earned my trust.

I’m hoping the US’ numbers follow the Diamond Princess cruise ship quarantine numbers (Link). The ship had 3700 passengers and crew, and a lot of the passengers were in the high risk pool aged 60 and above. They were in a confined space and sharing lots of air. The event lasted almost a month from January 21 to February 20. The basic reproductive number (Ro) was initially 14.8 but by implementing isolation and quarantine it dropped to 1.78. They estimated that they saved over 2300 additional infections which translates to roughly (likely low end because it would've been overwhelming) preventing 46 deaths, 69 critical cases, 345 severe cases, 1840 mild cases.

March 19, 2020, 11:22 PM

Georgeair

quote:
PA Gov. Fuckstick just closed all "non-life-sustaining" businesses in the state

About to figure out how broad that is.

Oh - do get the whiplash supporting everything said by the man I think is right in overall management of a ridiculously impossible situation even when it shifts/opposes dramatically with guidance of other professionals or recent statements. I can't reconcile myself, but hopefully can with more TP and bourbon. In any order.

March 19, 2020, 11:24 PM

tatortodd

quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
quote:
Originally posted by thunderson:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
I want to know the number of positives that weren't part of that backlog.

Good point. Even without backlog, increases today only represent yesterday's tests at best. Increase of confirmed cases today of almost 5000 were tests performed previously.

Everyone is freaking out about Italy and telling us what happened there IS happening here. Yet I don't recall hearing how fast they reacted, or how many (+) migrated into that country as the outbreak began compared to what came here.

Need to know info...

According to FNC, 99.2% of those who succumbed in Italy had at least one serious underlying medical condition. 48% had at least three, which I presume is cardiopulmonary related. Oh and the average age of Italy’s population is greater than the U.S. by 7.4 years. Interesting how the latter variable has been ignored yet it is probably the most significant driver, besides co-morbidities.

I saw a similar article on Bloomberg and I clicked on the link embedded in the article to find the actual study. In the study, Table 1 contained a list of the other comorbidities which Google translated as:
* Cardiopatia ischemica (Ischemic heart disease) 33%
* Fibrillazione atriale (A-fib) 24.5%
* Ictus (stroke) 9.6%
* pertensione arteriosa (hypertension) 76.1% - this one concerns me as 100 million Americans have it (including me).
* Diabete mellito (Diabetes) 35.5%
* Demenza (Dementia) 6.8%
* BPCO (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) 13.2%
* Cancro attivo negli ultimi 5 anni (Active cancer in the past 5 years) 20.3%
* Epatopatia cronica (Chronic hepatopathy) 3.1%
* Insufficienza renale cronica (Chronic renal failure) 18%

March 19, 2020, 11:43 PM

ensigmatic

quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
Everyone is freaking out about Italy and telling us what happened there IS happening here.

Pointers to data showing a nearly identical progression posted numerous times.

Covid-19 in US and Canada - Real Time Updates With Credible Sources

Cumulative cases: 03/15: 3684, 03/17: 6413, 03/19: 14287. More or less doubling every two days. Exponential growth. You can see it in the graph.

Part of this is likely due to increased testing. Problem is: We don't know how much.

quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
Yet I don't recall hearing how fast they reacted, or how many (+) migrated into that country as the outbreak began compared to what came here.

2020 coronavirus pandemic in Italy

As you'll see: They reacted seemingly quickly. Unfortunately, it would appear they underestimated the virulence of the disease. It was always one step ahead of them.

There have been interviews with Italian medical authorities in which they've said as much--warning other countries not to make the same mistake they did.

March 19, 2020, 11:43 PM

Rightwire

quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
quote:
Originally posted by thunderson:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
I want to know the number of positives that weren't part of that backlog.

Good point. Even without backlog, increases today only represent yesterday's tests at best. Increase of confirmed cases today of almost 5000 were tests performed previously.

Everyone is freaking out about Italy and telling us what happened there IS happening here. Yet I don't recall hearing how fast they reacted, or how many (+) migrated into that country as the outbreak began compared to what came here.

Need to know info...

According to FNC, 99.2% of those who succumbed in Italy had at least one serious underlying medical condition. 48% had at least three, which I presume is cardiopulmonary related. Oh and the average age of Italy’s population is greater than the U.S. by 7.4 years. Interesting how the latter variable has been ignored yet it is probably the most significant driver, besides co-morbidities.

I was thinking more along the lines of how fast did they close borders, limit travel, start to quarantine, social distance, shut down gatherings etc. If I recall Italians are all about being social in big groups, streets and shops small, everyone in close proximity.

March 19, 2020, 11:49 PM

ensigmatic

quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
I was thinking more along the lines of how fast did they close borders, limit travel, start to quarantine, social distance, shut down gatherings etc. If I recall Italians are all about being social in big groups, streets and shops small, everyone in close proximity.

As I pointed out in my previous post: They moved quickly, but the "social distancing" thing may have been their biggest failure.

My wife has friends and family all over Europe. When the Italian government first implemented a nationwide quarantine, Italians widely ignored it. My wife saw photos of cafes and the like still packed with people--until the Italian government added strict enforcement.

March 20, 2020, 12:09 AM

sigmonkey

I predict water will still make things wet, and some people still will not know to come in out of the rain.

Let's look back on this post in a day or three and see how close I was.

March 20, 2020, 12:09 AM

midwest guy

Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

March 20, 2020, 12:13 AM

Rightwire

quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here.

If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead?

March 20, 2020, 12:28 AM

midwest guy

quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here.

If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead?

The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious.

March 20, 2020, 12:33 AM

cparktd

Today, a semi truck showed up in a local parking lot full of milk that was originally intended for now closed schools. It was posted on facebook and given away. Took about two hours to empty a full size semi trailer.

March 20, 2020, 12:40 AM

Dakor

quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
quote:
Originally posted by Rightwire:
quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
Iceland is in the process of testing every citizen for COVID 19, the results so far have indicated that 50% of the positives are symptom free.

What is the quality of the tests? Apparently the ones offered by the WHO yielded a large number of false positives and negatives when evaluated here.

If 98% accurate and 50% are positive without symptoms, what does that mean? Are they contagious? Are they immune? The walking dead?

The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious.

The stats mirror what Dr. Lorix said a couple days ago but her figure was slightly higher: 60% of those infected appear to be symptom free carriers. Probably why she is pleading for millennials to regard the latest public health instructions. Unfortunately she didn’t get the memo, relying on them to do the right thing doesn’t provide me with a great deal of confidence!

March 20, 2020, 04:52 AM

Woodman

quote:
Originally posted by Skins2881:
I emailed my boss and told him I needed more shoe covers.

I work security in a strip club on Delaware Avenue ... But I'll spare you the picture of me surrounded by bottles of Corona, using lacy undergarments as breathing masks ...

March 20, 2020, 04:56 AM

sgalczyn

quote:
Originally posted by Woodman:
I work security in a strip club on Delaware Avenue ... But I'll spare you the picture of me surrounded by bottles of Corona, using lacy undergarments as breathing masks ...

Definitely life-sustaining...............

March 20, 2020, 05:18 AM

r0gue

quote:
Originally posted by midwest guy:
The tests were developed by deCode Genetics which is a subsidiary of Amgen. They are reporting the positives who were symptom-free when tested have not developed the disease. I haven’t seen any studies on symptom-free and infectious.

So I wonder,.. without symptoms, does the body still detect and kill the virus??, or do they just have that sucker as a parasite ongoing, passing it along to others forever? I would think, -- and HOPE, the latter.

March 20, 2020, 06:06 AM

dewhorse

quote:
Originally posted by Oat_Action_Man:
Fucking Tom Wolf.

Now my brand new STI is stuck at the FFL, although it arrived this afternoon. And I can't even go to the fucking range because it's shut down. Already couldn't go to the gym anymore.

And my taxes are sitting at the accountant, so wonder what's gonna happen with that.

Fuck. You.

PA has ranges on their public land for hunters. If you already have a hunting or fishing lic it's free if not it's $25. You can buy them at Walmart or online.

March 20, 2020, 06:13 AM

Dakor

r0gue,

There are different types of asymptomatic carriers. Those that have the virus and progress towards being symptomatic and those that won't ever demonstrate symptoms (technically disease free but not pathogen-free) whose immune systems eliminate the virus relatively quickly. Age is a primary factor in estimating the strength of one's immune system. All viruses replicate intracellularly and typically the symptoms one experiences are a result of the expansion of the virus (destroying one's cells in layman's terms) and/or the immune system reacting to the infection.
nCov-19 or SARS-CoV-2 is not a latent virus and thus doesn't integrate with one's genome. The possibility of reinfection was significantly hyped for a while, but unless robust mutation occurs (providing a lack of antigenic recognition) that's highly unlikely. Those infected will not pass it along forever regardless of whether they become symptomatic or remain symptom free. Secondary vectors (different than fomites) can act like viral harbors in the environment so further research needs to be conducted on that front.
Hope this explanation helps.

March 20, 2020, 07:22 AM

Killer

quote:
Originally posted by TAllen01:
quote:
Originally posted by TXLe:
There have been mentionings in the news of the national guards being called up but not much details. Does anyone have any information and which states, the numbers being called up and the timeline?

I don't have numbers, but Ohio has called them up. Helping set up tents for testing and distributing groceries.

There are 60 so far in Illinois. My niece is in the Illinois Air Guard and I worry about her being in the middle of this mess.

March 20, 2020, 07:22 AM

benny6

Had a rough night last night. The tree pollen count is high right now and my head was cloudy. Had a splitting headache. Body aches (mostly my legs), ears feel pressure and I had alternating chills and sweats last night.

No fever. No cough, no sore throat, no runny nose.

Got home at midnight and it wasn’t that cold. I was shivering pretty hard. Took some Benadryl and fell asleep on top of the covers. Woke around 2:30 and changed, then got back into bed shivering again.

I’ve never had shivers with allergies, but I don’t seem to check the boxes for WU FLU.

Wife just checked my temp. 98.7.

March 20, 2020, 07:35 AM

Doc H.

quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
r0gue,

There are different types of asymptomatic carriers. Those that have the virus and progress towards being symptomatic and those that won't ever demonstrate symptoms (technically disease free but not pathogen-free) whose immune systems eliminate the virus relatively quickly. Age is a primary factor in estimating the strength of one's immune system. All viruses replicate intracellularly and typically the symptoms one experiences are a result of the expansion of the virus (destroying one's cells in layman's terms) and/or the immune system reacting to the infection.
nCov-19 or SARS-CoV-2 is not a latent virus and thus doesn't integrate with one's genome. The possibility of reinfection was significantly hyped for a while, but unless robust mutation occurs (providing a lack of antigenic recognition) that's highly unlikely. Those infected will not pass it along forever regardless of whether they become symptomatic or remain symptom free. Secondary vectors (different than fomites) can act like viral harbors in the environment so further research needs to be conducted on that front.
Hope this explanation helps.

Good rundown Dakor, thanks. I would add that there's no indication - yet - that the virus has crossed back into any non-human reservoir to date. Apparently it's getting pretty comfortable living in humans...