Biden cares about Biden.

Hopefully the entire Israeli leadership understands this mistake and won't repeat it.

quote:

MK Danon: We made a mistake when we listened to the US regarding the war in Gaza

"Our mistake was made a few months ago, when we listened to the US," Danon told Kan Reshet Bet. "We changed the modus operandi in Gaza and took our foot off the gas pedal. That brought pressure on us. Today the international community is saying that it's taking too much time."

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/387980

Danny Danon may tell himself it's the Americans' fault, but Israel started taking "the foot off the gas" as soon as four weeks into the ground war when they began demobilizing reservists for the simple reason that the call-up of unprecedented scale and duration began to play hell with their economy. 300,000 reservists were missing at work in a country of less than ten million, couldn't run their own companies, etc.; businesses were failing left and right, unemployment numbers tripled, venture capital halved. I'm somewhat inclined to believe that this, along with domestic pressure by hostage families and partisan interests seizing on them, also contributed to the week-long truce and prisoners-for-hostages deal in late November. December saw some of the heaviest fighting, but also mounting domestic questioning over the three hostages mistakenly, or maybe negligently, killed by IDF troops. By early January, they demobilized several brigades and pulled out of some areas in North Gaza. Since then, not much has happened in terms of territorial control.

Danon is right of course that they're losing international support because noone can see where this is going except more casualties on either side, but that's largely due to domestic factors; not least because the Israeli government has offered no plans for what should become of Gaza after the intended destruction of Hamas et al, except in the most vague terms. As late as early February, they certainly weren't listening to anything the US told them after becoming more critical of the situation. So he's just blame-shifting.

I think Netanyahu and Israel know exactly what the end game is and what their plans for Gaza are, but they're just not willing to say so publicly and explicitly...for obvious reasons.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
300,000 reservists were missing at work in a country of less than ten million, couldn't run their own companies, etc.; businesses were failing left and right, unemployment numbers tripled, venture capital halved.

In one month? Got a link (that's unbiased!) to support any of that? Seems a bit extraordinary (almost impossible?) to have such measurable effects on their economy in just four weeks!

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I think Netanyahu and Israel know exactly what the end game is and what their plans for Gaza are, but they're just not willing to say so publicly and explicitly...for obvious reasons.

Jews have been saying “never again” for seventy years. I’ve always believed that was a righteous resolve and that they and Israel meant it. Never again means it doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks or does. They will see this through to the end. If they don’t, the enemies of Israel will see opportunity. Netanyahu has no choice but to finish this or greater consequences than Oct 7 2023 will come.

The current US administration and it's "we support Israel 100%" (as long as they are an obedient lap dog), while beating said dog on the nose with a rolled up paper every time it shits on the Arab's carpet, is gonna find that behavior biting us in the ass.

If anyone thinks the Arab world will trust us more for such actions or Israel's neck not getting even stiffer, does not understand the mindset of either Jews nor Arabs.

And yes, I am biased.

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:
In one month? Got a link (that's unbiased!) to support any of that? Seems a bit extraordinary (almost impossible?) to have such measurable effects on their economy in just four weeks!

Here, from the "Jerusalem Post":

quote:

Israel's jobless rate spikes amid conflict with Hamas

The war has led to a significant economic impact in Israel, with the jobless rate reaching nearly 10% in October, driven by temporary work losses affecting over 428,000 individuals.

By ZACHY HENNESSEY
NOVEMBER 20, 2023 17:55

The economic fallout from the recent conflict with Hamas is becoming increasingly apparent as Israel grapples with a surge in unemployment. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the jobless rate reached nearly 10% in October, fueled by temporary work losses affecting over 428,000 individuals.

In October, the main unemployment rate remained steady at 3.4%. However, when factoring in the temporary loss of work due to the conflict, the rate reached 9.6%, with 428,400 people jobless compared to 163,600 in September. The October 7 attack by Hamas terrorists on Israeli border towns resulted in the mobilization of nearly 400,000 Israelis to reserve duty, and approximately 80,000 were placed on unpaid leave in the aftermath.

The employment rate for October dipped to 56.5% from 61.1%, reflecting the significant impact of the conflict on the workforce. As the country faces an anticipated economic contraction in the fourth quarter and a lower-than-expected growth rate in 2023, attention turns to mitigating the impact and supporting sectors struggling in the aftermath of the conflict.

Disproportionate struggles

Previous reports from the Central Bureau of Statistics highlighted the construction industry as one of the most severely affected, with over 62% of businesses facing near-closure. In contrast, only 4% of businesses in hi-tech and financial services sectors were similarly impacted.

According to self-reports, 51% of businesses nationwide have experienced a serious income decline compared to normal times. In the southern and northern districts, the percentages of businesses reporting significant damage to income were the highest, at 66% and 64%, respectively. The construction and food and beverage services industries were particularly hard-hit, with over 70% of businesses in these sectors reporting a serious loss of income.

Small businesses, defined as those with up to 10 salaried positions, were disproportionately affected, with approximately 57% reporting a serious income decline compared to only 14% of larger businesses with more than 250 salaried positions.

The data also revealed the precarious position of small businesses, with 42% of those with 5-10 salaried jobs on the brink of closure, compared to approximately 15% of larger businesses.

As Israel grapples with the economic repercussions of the conflict, stakeholders and policymakers face the challenge of rebuilding and supporting businesses affected by the ongoing crisis.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-774239

And the "Financial Times":

quote:

Israeli venture capital deals slow sharply since start of Hamas war

Drop-off in dealmaking hits country’s growing tech sector and threatens early-stage start-ups

Ivan Levingston in London and Mercedes Ruehl in Singapore November 21 2023

Israel’s venture capital sector has recorded a sharp slowdown in dealmaking since the outbreak of hostilities with Hamas, dealing a blow to the country’s tech industry.

About $325mn in total venture funding was invested in Israel during October in 120 deals, down from $1bn in 232 deals in September, according to data compiled by local market researcher IVC.

While part of that may be due to seasonality or other factors, some foreign investors have slowed work on deals since the conflict erupted following the October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, according to people active in the market.

“Some start-up companies that were about to close an investment, they were about to close a deal, everything seemed fine. And then the war broke out,” said Chemi Peres, a managing partner of the Israeli VC fund Pitango. “The investors didn’t walk away, they just said we want to hold back and see.”

Peres, the son of former Israeli prime minister and president Shimon Peres, is working to raise a $20mn emergency fund to help start-ups in their early stages of development survive the latest disruption.

Before the outbreak of hostilities, Israeli start-ups had already been contending with a fall in venture capital investment that mirrored a global post-pandemic plunge in activity. Rising interest rates and falling public valuations have cooled investment in private technology companies across markets.

But the sudden lack of VC money will deal a disproportionate blow to Israel’s self-styled image as a “start-up nation”. The tech sector is an important driver of the economy, accounting for roughly 15 per cent of all jobs spread across hundreds of fledgling companies and multinationals such as Intel and Microsoft.

In addition to this unfavourable environment, Israeli start-ups also face other challenges. The war has led to roughly 15 per cent of Israeli high-tech employees being called up for reserve military duty, including senior executives at many start-ups.

[...]

https://www.ft.com/content/f5e...32-87b8-cb085bc16716

I was dubious at the time too, because the news were widely celebrated by anti-Israeli media to the sound of "haha, stupid Zionists shot their own foot"; to the point I assumed it was all made up and didn't even bother to check whether it was true. It only came back to me when they sent five brigades home at year's end, expressively stating it was to boost the economy, and using some business bullshit bingo language like "smart management of forces" for future operations.

quote:

Thousands of ground force soldiers coming out of the Strip

As 2024 begins, IDF withdraws 5 brigades from Gaza, but says fighting likely all year

Military says rocket launches down to average of 14 per day; ‘We are adjusting the fighting methods,’ spokesman says

By Emanuel Fabian
31 December 2023, 11:06 pm

The Israel Defense Forces said Sunday it was beginning to release five brigades from combat in the Gaza Strip, as the military increasingly gains control on the ground.

The military said it believes the war against the terror group will likely continue throughout 2024, and said it was prepared for lengthy fighting, though in different phases from the high-intensity campaign it has waged so far.

[...]

On Sunday evening, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the military was making adjustments to its deployment in Gaza, in anticipation of a long war ahead.

“We are adjusting the fighting methods to each area in Gaza, and the necessary forces to carry out the mission in the best way possible. Each area has different characteristics and different operational needs,” he said. “Tonight, 2024 will begin. The goals of the war require lengthy fighting, and we are prepared accordingly.”

Hagari said the military would be carrying out “smart” management of the forces in Gaza, allowing reservists to return home to help bounce back the economy, and for standing army troops to train to become commanders.

The 460th Armored Brigade, responsible for the Armored Corps training base; the 261st Brigade, the Bahad 1 officers’ school in wartime; the 828th Brigade, the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders; the 14th Reserve Armored Brigade; and 551st Reserve Paratroopers Brigade, are all being released.

The five brigades are made up of thousands of soldiers.

The brigades tasked with training soldiers will return to carrying out their usual activity, while the reservists are being released to help bounce back Israel’s economy.

“We are continuing the training of officers and commanders… after their experience in combat, they are returning to training and will join the army’s line of commanders when they finish,” Hagari said.

Hagari said “some of the reservists will return to their families and work this week.”

“It will result in considerable relief for the economy, and will allow them to gain strength for operations next year, and the fighting will continue and we will need them,” he said.

[...]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...ing-likely-all-year/

In early December there were some reports on disagreements between the Israeli and US government on how long high-intensity operations should continue before international support eroded, with the latter suggesting it would be until year's end, while the former said it would need another three to four weeks throughout January. Of course in either case the appropriate military path would have been to continue unabated until the deadline; but the economic situation seems to have caught up with the Israelis before the US government did indeed get under its own mounting domestic pressure about humanitarian concerns from late January in a campaign year, leading to increasing official American criticism from February.

In essence Israel is now caught in the same trap as Ukraine, where they can't prosecute the war as necessary with their national means, leading to protracted indecisive operations noone can see a clear end to, eroding the international support they need, particularly with the US stuck in domestic election year politics; and a global coalition of "anti-globalists" running interference by reversing cause and effect, victim and perpetrator, warning of world wars and forever wars, shedding crocodile tears about human losses, and complaining about costs with no returns for the West. Which is unfortunate in both cases, because after the 7 October terror attack, I see no alternative to Israel functionally eliminating Hamas & Co., and probably Gaza in its previous territorial organization. Yet right now, there is no credible perspective.

ETA this just coming in:

quote:

IDF withdraws all ground troops from southern Gaza, leaving just one brigade in the enclave

By EMANUEL FABIAN
Today, 11:56 am

Overnight, the IDF withdrew all ground troops from the southern Gaza Strip, after four straight months of fighting in the Khan Younis area.

Only one brigade, Nahal, currently remains in the Gaza Strip.

The Nahal Brigade is tasked with securing the so-called Netzarim Corridor, which crosses Gaza from the Be’eri area in southern Israel to the Strip’s coast.

The corridor enables the IDF to carry out raids in northern and central Gaza, prevents Palestinians from returning to the northern part of the Strip, and allows humanitarian organizations to deliver aid directly to northern Gaza.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...gade-in-the-enclave/

quote:

IDF: Intelligence showed targeted raids more effective way to fight Hamas going forward

By EMANUEL FABIAN
Today, 1:13 pm

The IDF believes that raids based on new intelligence, like the operation at Shifa Hospital and others in northern Gaza, are a more effective way to operate against Hamas.

The offensive in Khan Younis did what it set out to do, according to the IDF, with the local Hamas brigade dismantled, thousands of gunmen killed, and around 30 kilometers of tunnels destroyed.

Troops will ultimately return for raids based on new intelligence, similar to how operations are taking place in northern Gaza, according to the IDF.

The 98th Division, which was withdrawn from southern Gaza overnight, also needs time for R&R after four straight months of fighting.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/...hamas-going-forward/

Guess that's officially it for taking complete control of Gaza in a foreseeable timeframe.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BansheeOne,

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
…..Guess that's officially it for taking complete control of Gaza in a foreseeable timeframe.

Good post Banshee, thank you for curating all those Israeli articles.

I think the western world is in a weird spot where we falsely believe wars can be won cleanly and within the stringent confines of aspirational humanitarian protections for non-combatants. It’s simply untrue and there are no examples of a war being won while civilians are safe, and much less so when fighting an adversary who illegally blends among the civilian populace.

Israel has thus far, in my opinion, done a great job in the western media battlespace by directly engaging stupid reporters. However, Israel cannot convince US Muslim democrats of the righteousness of their cause and unfortunately those assholes hold sway right now.

Someday in the future I am hopeful that whatever weak mind virus has infected the US will be defeated and we once again will have the fortitude to accept the amount of violence required to win wars. Smart weapons are great, but they perpetuate a false narrative that wars are clean. If you aren’t willing to burn cities and the enemy is, you can’t win regardless of technological superiority. Said another way: when only one side attempts to follow the laws of armed conflict, that side has anchored itself to an insurmountable standard which will neuter its better tech and ultimately prevent victory.

I hope Israel can withstand the immense pressure and press the war into Rafa until Hamas is destroyed.

Great post arabiancowboy and spot on.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Sunday that it had withdrawn its forces from southern Gaza, following a demand from U.S. President Joe Biden last week for an “immediate ceasefire.” Hamas declared victory on the news.

https://www.breitbart.com/midd...as-declares-victory/


edit Bansheeone addressed this in his post above

You are 100% correct Arabiancowboy. Western attitudes surrounding the Israel/ Hamas war remind me of an episode of Star Trek from 1967 called, “A Taste of Armageddon.” In that episode, the Enterprise crew finds themselves on a planet at war with another planet for centuries. The problem is that rather than shooting weapons at each other, destroying buildings, infrastructure, capital ships, etc. the war is fought with computer simulation. The computers launch attacks against each other, casualties are calculated and then people that the computer selects as casualties report to disintegration chambers to be put to death and their deaths are reported. The Enterprise crew rightfully sees how mad this is, but the inhabitants of the planet see this as perfectly normal and a better way to conduct war since they’ve accepted that they are incapable of peace.

Captain Kirk of course solves the problem by destroying the computer system on one of the planets, in violation of one of the treaties in place between the planets. The leadership f the planet of course freaks out and says that Kirk has condemned them to the savagery of war. Given the prospects of conventional war, by two populaces that haven’t known real war for multiple generations, they wisely agree to peace talks and a cease fire appears to be in place as the show cuts away.

I think the show contains an excellent lesson. War should be Hell, then there is a real incentive to avoid it. The insanity of the thought that war can result in the desired impact of either side with minimal consequences aside from the combatants is off the charts. It’s almost like thinking that all disagreements can be settled with a gentlemanly duel. The concept of war is mad. The idea that two or more sides would rather kill each other or risk their own death before coming to some sort of compromise or acceptance of reality is mad. The thought that a war could be fought with minimal collateral damage or unintended consequences is the most mad notion of all.

quote:

Originally posted by nhracecraft:

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
300,000 reservists were missing at work in a country of less than ten million, couldn't run their own companies, etc.; businesses were failing left and right, unemployment numbers tripled, venture capital halved.

In one month? Got a link (that's unbiased!) to support any of that? Seems a bit extraordinary (almost impossible?) to have such measurable effects on their economy in just four weeks!

I had to compose documents of exemption for my engineers.
And I'm having supply chain issues for parts being manufactured.
It's a real issue.

Hamas declares victory. Glad we could help. Sheesh.

quote:

Originally posted by arabiancowboy:
I hope Israel can withstand the immense pressure and press the war into Rafa until Hamas is destroyed.

It's entirely possible the Rafah offensive will still come. In fact some suggest today's withdrawl is actually in preparation, allowing the refugees concentrated there, and being widely cited as the main humanitarian problem in such an attack, to disperse back into central and northern Gaza, while giving the troops some rest. Then, after world opinion has calmed down a bit and attention shifted elsewhere, the IDF could have another call-up and go in again.

The obvious problem is that you also give Hamas et al some rest, and territorial control remains bitwork. Hamas already reconstituted somewhat in the north, regaining some or full control of areas the IDF withdrew from; and while they can be weakened cummulatively with repeated strikes, it might become a bit of whack-a-mole. Above all, there remains a lack of concrete plans for a stable endstate, other than creating a buffer zone around the edges of the Strip and having affairs there run by "anti-Hamas Palestinians". Quite where those should come from isn't really clear; local clans are reportedly organizing things in areas vacated by the IDF and not reclaimed by Hamas now, but I'm not sure how sustainable that is.

The longer things are left in the air, the bigger the chance Hamas or Islamic Jihad make a reappearance, and the cycle going on since 2007 continues. I'm really unsure Israel will get the support and goodwill of last year post-10/7 again, including from the US, and regardless of this year's election outcome BTW; and most crucially, from its own people. The 7 October attack and initial response pasted over the deep divisions within Israeli society, but they have been slowly returning, with some new added on top - government failure to prevent the attack in the first place, and the hostage issue which as noted is being seized upon by partisan political interests. And the three hostages killed by friendly fire last year really made Israelis themselves question conduct of the war.

The strike on the World Central Kitchen convoy this week may have been the straw which broke the camel's back both domestically and internationally. Because WCK was actually closely cooperating with Israel, which was trying to establish them as an alternative to notoriously pro-Palestinian UNRWA to distribute humanitarian aid. If you start blowing up the people you supposedly want to help, or want to help you, with some apparent regularity, pretty soon you'll be on your own. Unfortunately the latter incident in particular once more exposed an institutional streak of "fuck procedures" running in the IDF which may be endearing in a macho gung-ho git-r-done way, but frequently bites them in the ass; the USS Liberty incident probably being the best example.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:

The strike on the World Central Kitchen convoy this week may have been the straw which broke the camel's back both domestically and internationally. Because WCK was actually closely cooperating with Israel, which was trying to establish them as an alternative to notoriously pro-Palestinian UNRWA to distribute humanitarian aid. If you start blowing up the people you supposedly want to help, or want to help you, with some apparent regularity, pretty soon you'll be on your own. Unfortunately the latter incident in particular once more exposed an institutional streak of "fuck procedures" running in the IDF which may be endearing in a macho gung-ho git-r-done way, but frequently bites them in the ass; the USS Liberty incident probably being the best example.

Or many in positions are outright incompetent.
Amplified by their arrogance. And won't fucking listen.
Every conversation I have with the people in Israel leaves me even more frustrated.
I got off the phone at 10 this morning with one.
Can't find one of the engineers. Guess what. NOT MY PROBLEM.
This whole mess is going as I expected. They've fallen into the image war hamas wants.
Baited them into fucking up. And here we are. Just as expected.

Israel caved to Biden pressure. I thought more of them than that. They are now in a USA mode of an endless war. Hamas will have more support than ever. Sad and disappointing. American hostages are completely ignored.

quote:

Israel caved to Biden pressure

absolutely. We may never know what Biden threatened with.

Can you imagine the uproar if Israel goes back in with force ?

This is one more gigantic foreign affairs screw up by FJB to "boost" his image

DEMs really are getting desperate. A cornered rat is a dangerous rat.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:

quote:

Israel caved to Biden pressure

absolutely. We may never know what Biden threatened with.

Probably halting the sale and support of F-15EX & F-35, no more R&D of any missile defense (Arrow 3, David Sling, Iron Dome, etc) and no more intel sharing. Given the unstable nature of Brandon and his own anti-semitism, I'm sure he wanted a full cut-off.

Turns out Victor Davis Hanson's prediction was correct.