The Covid-19 Pandemic is Ending

Covid19 has already passed through all 50 states as a single major contagious wave in each state. There were 33 early states where the epidemic was over by June, and 14 late states where the epidemic now is ending.

Every week in America about 51,000 people die from all causes. This number rises and falls during the winter due to flu-like illnesses and goes back to baseline in the summer. No one panics about it, and most people don’t even realize that it happens. This year was worse than normal, but we’ve almost returned to baseline.

But this year -- everyone panicked! William Briggs has documented this in his Coronavirus Update series, and this article adds to his analysis by examining state level data.

As Briggs has argued, the most important data is the data for deaths from all causes. Covid19 attributed deaths are subject to interpretation as either died from or died with Covid19, and death certificates can be misleading because of the attribution of cause (here and here.) The bubble burst his week when the CDC reported that only 6% of the total Covid19 attributed deaths were from the virus alone.

In contrast to the Covid19 attributed deaths, the number for deaths from all causes is a hard number. The deaths from all causes number exposes the current mass panic as an historical aberration and confirms the evidence that the mass panic has been engineered by politicians and a biased medical establishment.

The 11 year weekly deaths from all causes graph (here and below,) shows that the 2020 flu season was about normal until it spiked for eight weeks in April and May due to Covid19 (CDC data here and here). The April high of 78,000 was significantly higher than the previous multi-year high of 67,000 in 2018, but just as in previous years, the temporary spike rapidly declined toward baseline.

The 11 year baseline increased from about 45,000 in 2009 to about 51,000 in 2019, generally as a result of increasing population. After this year’s April spike to 78,000, the current weekly all causes deaths number is down to 55,000, about 4,000 higher than the projected baseline. We are at week 32 of the year, and flu season is about to kick in. What does this mean regarding the Covid19 epidemic?

The national number for Covid19 attributed deaths has two peaks of weekly deaths, as illustrated in the graph for Weekly Covid19 Attributed Deaths below (CDC data here.) Since it takes about three weeks for incoming data at the CDC to stabilize at a final value, the last three weeks of data in panel A of the graph will increase. This has stoked fears that the epidemic is still raging across the country, and that a second wave of contagion is beginning.

That’s not what’s happening.

The Covid19 attributed deaths can be divided into two groups: early epidemic states, and late epidemic states. There were 33 early epidemic states where the majority of deaths occurred before June 1, and where the epidemic peaked in April and May. There were 14 late states where the majority of deaths occurred after June 1, and where the peaks were in July and August.

Among the 33 early states, seven states in the northeastern region of the country contributed 71% of the early states deaths: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Michigan.

The majority of the 14 late states were southern coastal states: South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Arkansas. California was the other coastal state where the main epidemic peak occurred after June 1. Nevada and Arizona are contiguous with California and also peaked after June and were included in the coastal group. The three non-coastal states in the 14 late states group only contributed 1.3% of the deaths.

Geographically, the coastal late states group makes up the southern rim of the country: California, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and South Carolina. The obvious suggestion from these data is that the virus spread out as a single shock wave through the northeastern states first, where the largest death toll was mostly in areas of high population density.

There was a dramatic decline in deaths as the viral shock wave pushed through the less populous interior states. Then, as the viral shock wave began penetrating the more southerly, warmer, coastal states about two months later, the deaths began to increase again as the virus hit more densely populated areas.

Briggs also has argued in his Coronavirus Updates that massive public testing has contributed to panic about the virus. Nationally, we are performing about 5 million tests per week.

However, the following two graphs break down the testing data at the state level, and show that the early states epidemic is over, and that the late states epidemic has peaked and is declining. The state level testing data are from the Covid Tracking Project and can be found here.

Testing in the 33 early states is currently at three million tests per week. In July, the absolute number of positives more than doubled from 64,000 per week to 148,000 per week, but the rise in absolute numbers of positive tests had little to no effect on the deaths per week. This indicates that much healthier people were being tested, and that many of the truly vulnerable had already died in April and May.

The percent positive tests and total positives have been declining for the last 3 weeks, and the total deaths are likely to follow this trend. All of this indicates that the Covid19 epidemic in the 33 early states is over.

In the 14 Late States Testing and Deaths figure, total tests per week peaked at 2.5 million, and then began to decline. In contrast to the numbers for the 33 early states, the percent positive and positive tests per week in the late states began to spike at the beginning of June. Percent positives went from 4% to 13%, and absolute positives went from a low of 40,000 per week to 330,000 per week.

After a four week lag relative to the increase in positives, the Covid19 attributed deaths also began to rise in July, which is what you might expect if the positives are in a truly vulnerable population. However, the percent positives, absolute weekly positives, and weekly deaths peaked in July, and now are declining. This is a strong indication that the epidemic is ending in the 14 late states.

To summarize, the Covid19 epidemic was like the shock wave from a bomb that went off in New York. The shock wave spread throughout the country and finally hit the coastal regions where it is now dissipating. The coastal regions were the last densely populated areas to be hit by the viral shock wave, so that’s where the weekly deaths number increased last, and that’s where the epidemic is ending.

If the late states death rate drops to below 1,000 per week in September, the yearly deaths from all causes will be about back to the 11 year projected baseline. It will have been a bad year, but not as bad as the 1968 Hong Kong Flu or the 1957 Asian Flu. No one panicked then, and no one should be panicking now.

Nevertheless, the hysteria and panic over Covid19 has not abated. And you can expect it to get worse. We are at the beginning of flu season. Deaths from all causes will begin to increase, and you can expect all deaths to be conflated with Covid19. Former CDC director Tom Frieden was leading the way when he recently was quoted as saying,

The second wave is a misconception: It’s the omnipresent risk of explosive spread … That’s what we’re facing.

This is ignorant fear mongering of the most vicious kind. As the data show, the virus is not omnipresent and ready to explode everywhere. The virus faces natural barriers, just like all infectious pathogens, and dies out as it crashes into each successive barrier. The virus has hit its final barrier, the oceans, and is dying out there.

For the whole cycle to start over again, the virus will have to find a new susceptible population of elderly, and then attempt to repeat its first exponential expansion. But this time, we know who the most vulnerable are, there will be immunity in the larger population, and we know how to stop the spread. Quarantine the sick. If we act rationally, there is no reason to expect a repeat of this past April.

Nature controls the virus, not the politicians. The ignorant will always be with us, just like the virus. But the virus is not that hard to figure out. Don’t panic. Keep the big picture in mind. Quarantine the sick. Protect the elderly. Let the rest of us free breathing Americans live our lives.

James G. Robertson is a biochemist who resides in Charlottesville, VA.

Read more: https://www.americanthinker.co...g.html#ixzz6Wz1qqcxE

quote:

Originally posted by RichardC:
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-p...are-shocking-n870757

"The 80th Annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally took place from August 7-16 in South Dakota. Attendance at the rally was slightly down, at 462,000, a 7.5% decrease from 2019. No doubt COVID-19 fears played a part in the attendance reduction. Perhaps those with pre-existing health conditions declined to attend."

"The City of Sturgis conducted mass COVID testing for its citizens after welcoming hundreds of thousands of visitors for the 80th annual Motorcycle Rally. Now, the city is announcing the results.

A total of 650 people took advantage of the free testing, with 26 people testing positive for COVID-19.

All of them were asymptomatic at the time of testing.

It is unlikely there will be new positive tests related to the rally. It would also be highly unusual for symptoms to appear at this stage. The city waited 12 days before publishing the results and the most common point for symptoms to appear is between days four and five after infection.

In total, it appears, as of August 28, 12 days after the rally, a total of 196 positive tests were linked to rally attendance:

STURGIS: Reported COVID-19 cases linked to the South Dakota motorcycle rally is 196, by my latest count this AM. Tracking continues. Tally:
SD: 88
MN: 35
ND: 21
Colo.: 20+
Wyo.: 10
Neb.: 7
Mont.: 6
NH: 6
Wisc.: 2
Wash: 1
Sources below:

— jayfug (@jayfug) August 28, 2020 "

"We should be more than thrilled with these numbers given it was a gathering of nearly a half a million people with little social distancing and a lot of close-contact extracurriculars. The City of Sturgis offered screening tests for asymptomatic people. If a PCR test can detect viral particles for up to 90 days, there is no guarantee that the individuals who tested positive were exposed at the rally, especially if they never developed symptoms."

Big news on the radio this morning. OMG! 300 positive cases out of 400k. OMG! Super spreaders! OMG! Bikers didn't social distance OMG! One attendee dead from MN. OMG!

quote:

Originally posted by braillediver:
This was enlightening. Especially the part where the community is attacking her because of what happened.

quote:

Salon owner joins Tucker, pushes back on Pelosi’s claim she was ‘set-up’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7lRKAtD4xE

Well, she really had no choice but to claim she was the 'victim' in all this. Her position, based on facts, is indefensible. She could never come out and say "Yeah, I knew the salons were closed, but I'm special and deserve special treatment above and beyond that afforded to you mere peons." She also couldn't plead ignorance - how could she say she didn't know the salons were closed, and admit that she has no clue what's going on in her district, with the people she is supposed to represent? She could have admitted her error and apologized, but that would have required humility and character; which, as we all know, she simply does not possess.

I don't see why she just didn't pay for a 'house call' - she is so arrogant she likely never expected to be called out for this.

So, she went on the offensive. It was really her only option. But, enough Kool-Aid drinkers will believe her and vote her back into office.

I do cherish the backlash, though. FoxNews.com this morning had this as its major headline.

A whole 300 (Sturgis)?

quote:

But, enough Kool-Aid drinkers will believe her and vote her back into office.

In the primary, Nancy Pelosi (D) got 74% of the vote.
The closest to Nancy was Shahid Buttar (D) also a Dem, with 13% of the vote.
The Republican, John Dennis (R) only managed to get 7.7% of the vote.

California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election.
So, yes, enough Kool-Aid drinkers will vote her back into office, whether or not they believe her. They just don't care.

quote:

Originally posted by jigray3:
My freshman daughter has Just gotten caught in The Great College COVID Bait and Switch of 2020. 5 days of classes with an undergrad enrollment of 23k students and 528 positive cases means they’re coming home. 2.39%. I predicted they wait about 2 weeks, but nope, not even going to pretend they possess any shame. Administration claims they’ll revisit the situation on 9/25 to come back on 10/5. Only a sucker would buy that one. Oh, and they haven’t made a decision yet about any refunds. Just one of many to come.

My freshman son was one of very few from his small high school graduating class to actually go to college. Most of the kids’ choices wimped out, some at the last minute, some months before the start of classes. A lot of the kids are taking gap years rather than do online BS. So far Montana State is hanging in there, but they are pointing to other schools that have shut down and asking the kids to be very careful. We’ll see how it goes...

quote:

Originally posted by Pipe Smoker:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
<snip>
That price is not sustainable.
<snip>
/QUOTE]

You might be right. Or not…

I’m betting he’s right, I’m just not foolish enough to suggest I have any idea what the timing will be. I suspect Trillions have been lost betting against “sure loser”* companies that did eventual fall apart, just not before the puts expired. This is not to suggest Zoom is a loser, by all accounts they seem to be doing wonderfully, the market is just (currently) ridiculously overvaluing them. Sooner or later they’ll have to increase profits somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 times (100,000%) or the price will have to fall. Which do you think is more likely?

quote:

Originally posted by Hound Dog:
Well, she really had no choice but to claim she was the 'victim' in all this.

I agree with Jesse Kelly.


https://twitter.com/JesseKelly.../1301269290658783237

So Nancy, ignorance of the law is now a valid defense?

quote:

Originally posted by Krazeehorse:
So Nancy, ignorance of the law is now a valid defense?

What law? If you didn't get the memo, Dem politicians like Nancy are not required to adhere to laws meant to control the serfs.

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:
And she is fighting back, saying the salon "set her up"- and demanding an apology

I assume she will immediately call the House back to DC to pass legislation making it illegal for LE to "set up" drug sales, prostitution stings, terrorism plots, etc and free anyone convicted under those circumstances as long as they "take responsibility" for falling for it.

quote:

Originally posted by Krazeehorse:
So Nancy, ignorance of the law is now a valid defense?

It ought to be. See:

Ignorantia Facti Excusat

Especially today when there are something like 10,000 laws on the books. It's crazy as hell to expect to hold people accountable for things they weren't even aware of. It's a terrible defect in our system, flatly terrible, with no easy fix.

There should be far fewer laws, a knowable number. And education should be required. We really need a complete reset, from the Constitution forward, in so so many areas of law and society. Too much nonsense, too much confusion, too much inane variation and lack of consistency. It's dumb.

But it's what we've got... let's not celebrate the dumb parts, eh...

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:

quote:

Originally posted by oddball:
And she is fighting back, saying the salon "set her up"- and demanding an apology

I assume she will immediately call the House back to DC to pass legislation making it illegal for LE to "set up" drug sales, prostitution stings, terrorism plots, etc and free anyone convicted under those circumstances as long as they "take responsibility" for falling for it.

Sounds familiar.

Woman who died in February gets letter saying she’s positive for COVID-19

Hmmmm.

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (NEXSTAR) — Family members of a woman who died seven months ago say they received a letter this week claiming their loved one tested positive for COVID-19.

What’s even more confusing is Sandra Whittington passed away in February before COVID-19 had been detected in Tennessee. She died in hospice care of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, according to WATN-TV.

“I’m just having a hard time understanding how they can say someone has COVID-19 when they are not even alive,” her son Troy Whittington said in an interview with WATN.

Whittingham said the notice from the local health department said his mother was tested on June 20 and that test came back positive.

New CDC report shows 94% of COVID-19 deaths in US had contributing conditions
“On her death certificate, it was stated she died, what the cause of death was, and it was not COVID-19. It was COPD,” Whittington said in the interview.

The Shelby County Health Department has since apologized for the error.

Even with the apology, Whittington can’t help but question why it took two months for results of the alleged June 20 test to be sent out.

“We’re talking two months later,” he said to WATN. “She needs to be quarantined for 10, well we’ve got 60 days from the time of the test to get the letter out to her, which is unacceptable.”

LINK: https://wgntv.com/news/coronav...sitive-for-covid-19/

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:

quote:

Originally posted by Krazeehorse:
So Nancy, ignorance of the law is now a valid defense?

It ought to be. See:

Ignorantia Facti Excusat

Especially today when there are something like 10,000 laws on the books. It's crazy as hell to expect to hold people accountable for things they weren't even aware of. It's a terrible defect in our system, flatly terrible, with no easy fix.

There should be far fewer laws, a knowable number. And education should be required. We really need a complete reset, from the Constitution forward, in so so many areas of law and society. Too much nonsense, too much confusion, too much inane variation and lack of consistency. It's dumb.

But it's what we've got... let's not celebrate the dumb parts, eh...

Nope. Then any moron can claim ignorance and get off.

You are absolutely right about too many laws though. I wish we could implement the “No new laws with out identifying and removing a minimum of fifteen existing laws for each new law. No omnibus laws. A new law does one thing, and is clearly written so anyone reading at a tenth grade level can read and understand it. For the purposes of counting laws to be removed, one vote is one law. An omnibus law that currently does 347 things counts as one law removed when it is removed, not 347.” Yeah, 347 would be a better number than fifteen, but we gotta start somewhere.

More Tennessee fun and games.

I don't quite know what to think of this, honest mistake or the state is padding the numbers.

Daughter in law tested 2 or 3 days ago and both the state and her local county health departments called with the results this AM.

County says she is Negative.
State says she is Positive.

She only took one test...

They both insist they are correct and say they will send her proof/the results.

She got tested because her son had a short hospital stay for something unrelated and got a mandatory test, was Positive, and was instructed to in home quarantine. Neither has symptoms.