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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Member
Picture of erj_pilot
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Bad news for you...I ain't goin' away (this time) and will continue posting updates.

CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Cases and Related Hospitalizations and Deaths from April 2009 - February 13, 2010, By Age Group

2009 H1N1 Mid-Level Range* Estimated Range*
Cases
0-17 years ~19 million ~14 million to ~28 million
18-64 years ~34 million ~24 million to ~50 million
65 years + ~6 million ~4 million to ~8 million
Cases Total ~59 million ~42 million to ~86 million
Hospitalizations
0-17 years ~85,000 ~60,000 to ~125,000
18-64 years ~154,000 ~109,000 to ~226,000
65 years + ~26,000 ~19,000 to ~38,000
Hospitalizations Total ~265,000 ~188,000 to ~389,000

Deaths
0-17 years ~1,250 ~890 to ~1,840
18-64 years ~9,200 ~6,530 to ~13,500
65 years + ~1,550 ~1,100 to ~2,280
Deaths Total ~12,000 ~8,520 to ~17,620

https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/es...pril_February_13.htm



"If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne

"Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24
 
Posts: 11054 | Location: NW Houston | Registered: April 04, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
thin skin can't win
Picture of Georgeair
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quote:
https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/es...pril_February_13.htm


OK. Help me reconcile that link which appears to be earlier estimates with this one that appears to be more finite/final data from just a month later. Serious question.

https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/hosp_deaths_ahdra.htm#4


quote:
How many people have been hospitalized from 2009 H1N1 since April?
From April 2009 to January 30, 2010, states have reported a total of 49,008 flu-related laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations to CDC. However, experts acknowledge that individual reports of 2009 H1N1-associated hospitalizations likely represent an undercount of what is occurring in actuality in the United States. To form a better picture of the actual number of hospitalizations associated with 2009 H1N1 illness in the United States, CDC developed a method to estimate 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.


quote:
How many people have died from 2009 H1N1?
States reported 2,498* flu-related deaths to CDC during April 2009 through January 30, 2010. However, experts acknowledge that individual reports of 2009 H1N1 associated deaths likely represent an undercount of what is actually occurring in the United States. To form a better picture of the actual number of hospitalizations associated with 2009 H1N1 illness in the United States, CDC developed a method to estimate 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths.



You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02

 
Posts: 12350 | Location: Madison, MS | Registered: December 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Picture of erj_pilot
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What you're looking at is hospitalization RATE broken down by age group, i.e., XX many per 1,000 or whatever the data is based on. My numbers are TOTAL hospitalizations. Have some fun...dig into the number! Smile

I'm busy writing a Reserve Rules Contract Guide for our pilot group. So I'm having my own kind of fun...I think.



"If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne

"Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24
 
Posts: 11054 | Location: NW Houston | Registered: April 04, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
12,469 deaths


In a year's period, right?

In just a few months, the US has 10x that amount. I realize we question the accuracy of that number, but surely we agree there have been more than 12k deaths in the US, right?

What am I missing? Honest question. No sarcasm or snarkiness. No victimhood or blame.
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Why the fascination with bird flu?

It was a serious issue for the poultry industry but I don’t recall any real comparative relevance to the current issue.
 
Posts: 481 | Registered: June 24, 2019Reply With QuoteReport This Post
thin skin can't win
Picture of Georgeair
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quote:
What you're looking at is hospitalization RATE broken down by age group, i.e., XX many per 1,000 or whatever the data is based on. My numbers are TOTAL hospitalizations. Have some fun...dig into the number!


Not true. If you look further down that page I linked that included the raw number of 49K, there is a chart showing number per 100K which overall was 22.24.

quote:
How have different age groups been impacted by the pandemic in terms of hospitalization rates in the United States as reported through AHDRA?
Graph A (below) shows the estimated flu hospitalization rate (inclusive of both 2009 H1N1 and seasonal flu) in the United States by age group from April 15 to January 30, 2010. These estimates are based on the 49,008* hospitalizations that were reported to CDC during this time period. The reported hospitalization rate per 100,000** people was highest among children in the 0 to 4 years of age group. The hospitalization rate of children in the 0 to 4 age group with flu illness was 58.76 children per 100,000. The next highest reported hospitalization rate was in the 5 to 24 years of age group, which had a hospitalization rate of 22.64 per 100,000 people. The hospitalization rate for people in the 25 to 49 years of age group was 16.19 per 100,000 people. The hospitalization rate for people 50 to 64 years of age was 22.17 per 100,000 people, and the hospitalization rate for people 65 years and older was lowest at 16.01 per 100,000. The overall hospitalization rate associated with 2009 H1N1 across all age groups was 22.24 per 100,000 people.


By comparison this chart shows the current rate per 100K for COVID-19. I agree this is likely overstated by something from a little to a lot since a lot of "possibles" are in here but that rate is nearly 300/100,000 as of 6-13-20. With a population of 325MM and that .3% rate, that's 975,000 hospitalizations. Just so far.

That's a metric shit-ton more than 49,000 for our it's not a big deal benchmark, right?

Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Preliminary cumulative rates as of Jun 13, 2020



You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02

 
Posts: 12350 | Location: Madison, MS | Registered: December 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Freethinker
Picture of sigfreund
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The continuing references to swine flu (or perhaps bird flu due to confusing the two) and its supposed relevant to this pandemic have finally piqued my interest enough to ask this question.

It’s pointed out over and over here that it’s legitimate to ask how many of the reported COVID-19 deaths were really due to that disease and not coincidental to what might have really killed its victims. So, I’ll ask the same about other flu deaths: How many of them were correlation, not causation? What were the criteria and diagnostic measures that were used to confirm that everyone who was deemed to have died from H1N1 actually died from that disease? Because its figures haven’t been subjected to critical analyses for the socio/political reasons we’re seeing with this disease, can we trust the claims associated with it any more than what’s being claimed about COVID-19?

What do the SIGforum disease authorities say?




6.4/93.6

“Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.”
— Plato
 
Posts: 47365 | Location: 10,150 Feet Above Sea Level in Colorado | Registered: April 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:
quote:
12,469 deaths


In a year's period, right?

In just a few months, the US has 10x that amount. I realize we question the accuracy of that number, but surely we agree there have been more than 12k deaths in the US, right?

What am I missing? Honest question. No sarcasm or snarkiness. No victimhood or blame.


What you're missing is that a huge majority of those people killed by the chinese virus were already aged well above the average life expectancy in the US. More people over the age of 90 have died than people under the age of 50. That's an insane statistic.

Compare that to H1N1 in which 80% of the deaths were people UNDER the age of 65.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

"Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle
 
Posts: 30297 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Peace through
superior firepower
Picture of parabellum
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quote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:
No sarcasm or snarkiness. No victimhood or blame.
Cut it out. Stop behaving this way. Just speak your piece and leave that snarky shit out of it, and buddy, I'm not saying this stuff to you again. Not another word about it. I mean it.
 
Posts: 107260 | Registered: January 20, 2000Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
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quote:
What you're missing is that a huge majority of those people killed by the Chinese virus were already aged well above the average life expectancy in the US. More people over the age of 90 have died than people under the age of 50. That's an insane statistic.

Yes... that's true. It hits old people hard. It hits people with asthma or diabetes hard.
But still, dead is dead. Even if they didn't have a long life expectancy anyway.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 23945 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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There's another factor that doesn't get much attention, but those of us with kids may know it - secondhand exposure.

Twice now, my 7 year old has been with someone who turned out to have been exposed to a positive case. It put us in a difficult situation.

He's enrolled in various summer camps. Having been exposed, do we send him, or keep him quarantined for several days or more until we know he is symptom free, and the person he had been with tests negative? I surely would want to know that other parents are not sending their kids to camp who have been exposed, even if second hand.

I don't that is panic. I think it's cautious, and responsible. It's also a drag, because my kid was home all day for several days while I and my wife are trying to work.

There is a balance between practical and cautious, and it has nothing to do with politicians, the media, or the numbers. It's about not getting sick, while at the same time getting on with life as we need to. We can't hole up as we did months ago, but we certainly are not going to act as if there is a not a bug out there that can disrupt our lives, makes us sick, or worse.
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
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quote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:

I don't that is panic. I think it's cautious, and responsible. It's also a drag, because my kid was home all day for several days while I and my wife are trying to work.



No, that is indeed panic. You're going to quarantine your 7 year old? This is illogical, irrational behavior. To do what you're describing would lead down a never ending rabbit hole. How do you imagine you're going to prevent your child from being exposed to this virus when he's going to summer camps?


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

"Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle
 
Posts: 30297 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
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Your kid has been exposed to what?

If your kid shows symptoms, then keep him home.

If your kid does not show symptoms, then send him to camp.

That was difficult. I could put it in a flow chart if that would help. Smile
 
Posts: 10823 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
If your kid does not show symptoms, then send him to camp.


That's how it spreads.
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
How do you imagine you're going to prevent your child from being exposed to this virus when he's going to summer camps?


You can't, but that's the point. If we all do what we can to limit exposure, then we have a better chance.
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
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Then keep your kid home.... forever...?
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
Then keep your kid home.... forever...?


I didn't say that. He's going to camp(s). He's going to school. He plays with friends.

I simply said it's tough when he's exposed to someone who may be infected. I think it's responsible to keep him home in that circumstance until we know he is not infected, either by letting time pass, or knowing the person he was exposed to is healthy.

That is very different than saying I'm going to quarantine him and keep him from any other human contact. Re-read what I wrote.
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:
quote:
If your kid does not show symptoms, then send him to camp.


That's how it spreads.


If a tree falls in the forest, but there is no one there to hear it, does it make a sound?
 
Posts: 10823 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by zipriderson:
I simply said it's tough when he's exposed to someone who may be infected. I think it's responsible to keep him home in that circumstance until we know he is not infected, either by letting time pass, or knowing the person he was exposed to is healthy.

That is very different than saying I'm going to quarantine him and keep him from any other human contact. Re-read what I wrote.


What's the plan if someone at camp later tests positive? How about a kid at school in the fall (near certainty)? Fourteen days quarantine for every potential exposure?
 
Posts: 8944 | Location: The Red part of Minnesota | Registered: October 06, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Fourteen days quarantine for every potential exposure?


To quote myself - "There is a balance between practical and cautious"

What I certainly am not going to do is pretend there is no risk. It seems that is what many here are advocating. Just go about life as if there is no concern, and let the chips fall where they may.
 
Posts: 5906 | Location: Denver, CO | Registered: September 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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