SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)Go | New | Find | Notify | Tools | Reply | |
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Amen to that. I could not care less what that fool has to say about anything. He proved to be just another swamp rat. | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
If you think Florida's new case numbers are exciting now, just wait until August and September when 16% of the population that currently only represents 4% of overall cases goes back to school. The 0-14 age group has been isolated since March 13th when 2 weeks of spring break were declared and subsequently, in person classes were canceled until summer break. I have 3 kids in that age range and I can't wait for them to go back to school and be with kids there own age. Being with them 24/7 for the last 3 1/2 months is interesting. | |||
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My elderly neighbor is planning a large family vacation to Florida this summer. This is a guy whose last three planned vacations have been canceled by either hurricanes or pandemic. Myrtle Beach 2018,2019 cancelled and Italy 2020 cancelled. | |||
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It cuts both ways. Yes, the virus may be unfairly singled out as the “cause” of death for one already weakened by other health issues. Blaming the virus can overly simplify a complex, tragic situation that was faced by that lost person. By the same token, the shutdown can be overly blamed as the “cause” for the failure of a financially-weak business or person. If the business or person didn’t have sufficient liquidity to sustain a long downward cycle, why should I care if that “herd” gets trimmed of its weaker members? My comment might be offensive, but please understand that it is no different than your own. We each are guilty of choosing a particular herd to hide in. And we each chose what we want to fear. | |||
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Agreed. Pray it is not my family or friends, but have said it since the beginning...even the experts...this will go thru everyone at some point, the goal of all this was to slow not stop so as not to overwhelm the hospitals/medical care. We bought the time needed, time to move on while taking reasonable measures we individually determine are needed. “Forigive your enemy, but remember the bastard’s name.” -Scottish proverb | |||
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I was watching the Last Kingdom last night and thought of what we are experiencing now. "The sickness" befell a certain region of England that could have provided a strategic advantage to one army. The army avoided the area entirely in fear - only to be slaughtered outright a few days later. | |||
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thin skin can't win |
Gov. Abbott Suspends Elective Surgeries in Four Texas Counties, Including Dallas County I'd expect to see this in more locations over coming days/weeks. For those skeptical that it's all just more testing but folks just skating by with no symptoms, etc. the numbers in TX seem to dispel that wishful thinking for that market at least. Assuming you don't think they are just made up which I realize some of you will insist on. COVID-19 hospitalizations on June 1 was 1784, yesterday was 4389. Obviously those metro areas have a lot of capacity, but Abbott hasn't seemed as prone to overreacting as some of the other You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02 | |||
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| Gracie Allen is my personal savior! |
Abbot and Fauci have both said they expect that if there's any surge, it'll happen this week and next week. Abbot is still insisting that public schools open this fall on schedule. | |||
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"TMC" is the "Texas Medical Center," the giant hospital complex in Houston. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Medical_Center They have been publishing their bed usage and projected bed usage. Here is the graph through yesterday. https://www.tmc.edu/coronaviru...ed-occupancy-growth/  | |||
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[Yaaawwwwnn] Wake me up when we hit over 166,000 cases PER DAY. Until then, this is all flatulence despite how HARD some of you are trying to convince...  Why didn't this country go through ANY OF THIS SHIT in 2009/2010 when 60,800,000 cases of Swine Flu ravaged through this country like a Hitler blitzkrieg on Poland? Why??? Source CDC..."From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus." https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandem...9-h1n1-pandemic.html That's ON AVERAGE 166,575 cases PER DAY!! Y'all don't think there was a fear of "overwhelming the healthcare system" then??? I have asked that question a number of times in this thread and in other boards and conversations; it has been met with bullshit answers EVERY. TIME. I got shouted down a couple of months ago when I brought this up. No longer. From this point forward, I will continue to post this question as the need arises. COVID-19 as of 24-JUN 2020: Total Tests - 30,110,061 Total Cases - 2,874,748 Infection Rate of tested - 9.55% Infection Rate of U.S. - 0.876% 2009/2010 H1N1: Infection Rate of U.S. - 19.66% * I could not find numbers to substantiate an estimated Infection Rate of H1N1 So NOW some of you may start to understand exactly WHY I post the "EVERYBODY PANIC" gif when we start talking numbers. "If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne "Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24 | |||
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Oh God, the monster-sized chart and graph ‘projections’ are back. Now I’m REALLY convinced we’re all gonna actually die.  ——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1 | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
So H1N1 was a big deal, but this is not? It resulted in 12,469 deaths, over a one year period? We've now had 10X that many deaths in 3 months...
I Fart In Your General Direction! "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| thin skin can't win |
Even better than that, you apparently intend to copy and repost the exact same body of text every time? What a dick move. So help my stupid ass out with an answer to a question I'm unable to find in your post since Swine Flu seems to be our benchmark. What was the hospitalization rate of that disease? As I recall it was pretty low, under 100,000 in a year period or so. If I use some bold text, funny pics and keep reposting the same thing will it help with clarifying why that is a stat that actually matters more than infection rate, testing number, positive cases, etc.? Look, I don't think we're all gonna die, or that we need to shut down the economy again ever for anything after this experience. I just think the potential strain on the healthcare system is a legit concern. Not just in DFW, but little places like Jackson that has a couple hospitals at or near full capacity now. The sort of capacity that has patients holding in the ER for a day or more for a room. That sounds like an actual issue doesn't it? You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02 | |||
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Bad news for you...I ain't goin' away (this time) and will continue posting updates. CDC Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Cases and Related Hospitalizations and Deaths from April 2009 - February 13, 2010, By Age Group 2009 H1N1 Mid-Level Range* Estimated Range* Cases 0-17 years ~19 million ~14 million to ~28 million 18-64 years ~34 million ~24 million to ~50 million 65 years + ~6 million ~4 million to ~8 million Cases Total ~59 million ~42 million to ~86 million Hospitalizations 0-17 years ~85,000 ~60,000 to ~125,000 18-64 years ~154,000 ~109,000 to ~226,000 65 years + ~26,000 ~19,000 to ~38,000 Hospitalizations Total ~265,000 ~188,000 to ~389,000 Deaths 0-17 years ~1,250 ~890 to ~1,840 18-64 years ~9,200 ~6,530 to ~13,500 65 years + ~1,550 ~1,100 to ~2,280 Deaths Total ~12,000 ~8,520 to ~17,620 https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/es...pril_February_13.htm "If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne "Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24 | |||
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| thin skin can't win |
OK. Help me reconcile that link which appears to be earlier estimates with this one that appears to be more finite/final data from just a month later. Serious question. https://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/hosp_deaths_ahdra.htm#4
You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02 | |||
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What you're looking at is hospitalization RATE broken down by age group, i.e., XX many per 1,000 or whatever the data is based on. My numbers are TOTAL hospitalizations. Have some fun...dig into the number!  I'm busy writing a Reserve Rules Contract Guide for our pilot group. So I'm having my own kind of fun...I think. "If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne "Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24 | |||
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| Banned |
In a year's period, right? In just a few months, the US has 10x that amount. I realize we question the accuracy of that number, but surely we agree there have been more than 12k deaths in the US, right? What am I missing? Honest question. No sarcasm or snarkiness. No victimhood or blame. | |||
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Why the fascination with bird flu? It was a serious issue for the poultry industry but I don’t recall any real comparative relevance to the current issue. | |||
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| thin skin can't win |
Not true. If you look further down that page I linked that included the raw number of 49K, there is a chart showing number per 100K which overall was 22.24.
By comparison this chart shows the current rate per 100K for COVID-19. I agree this is likely overstated by something from a little to a lot since a lot of "possibles" are in here but that rate is nearly 300/100,000 as of 6-13-20. With a population of 325MM and that .3% rate, that's 975,000 hospitalizations. Just so far. That's a metric shit-ton more than 49,000 for our it's not a big deal benchmark, right? Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19-Associated Hospitalizations Preliminary cumulative rates as of Jun 13, 2020 You only have integrity once. - imprezaguy02 | |||
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| Freethinker |
The continuing references to swine flu (or perhaps bird flu due to confusing the two) and its supposed relevant to this pandemic have finally piqued my interest enough to ask this question. It’s pointed out over and over here that it’s legitimate to ask how many of the reported COVID-19 deaths were really due to that disease and not coincidental to what might have really killed its victims. So, I’ll ask the same about other flu deaths: How many of them were correlation, not causation? What were the criteria and diagnostic measures that were used to confirm that everyone who was deemed to have died from H1N1 actually died from that disease? Because its figures haven’t been subjected to critical analyses for the socio/political reasons we’re seeing with this disease, can we trust the claims associated with it any more than what’s being claimed about COVID-19? What do the SIGforum disease authorities say? ► 6.4/93.6 ___________ “We are Americans …. Together we have resisted the trap of appeasement, cynicism, and isolation that gives temptation to tyrants.” — George H. W. Bush | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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