I know (probably should say knew) three people that died from the flu (complications, actually - very few people die from the flu itself) in the last two years.

The latest one was last month, and they were only 34 years old and seemingly healthy before contracting the flu.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
I know (probably should say knew) three people that died from the flu (complications, actually - very few people die from the flu itself) in the last two years.

The latest one was last month, and they were only 34 years old and seemingly healthy before contracting the flu.

I contracted the Influenza-A strain in 2015 (in my 40s) and I was losing the fight, until they put me on antiviral meds (protease inhibitor) at the hospital. Heart arrhythmia made the medical staff jump into action, after I stupidly waited too long to seek medical care.

The reactions by the public as a whole and by individuals who don’t necessarily come down with it are as much an aspect of the disease as the effects of the disease itself on those who do. Panicked reactions to epidemics are as old as history, and there is simply no way to separate them from the disease. It is futile to wish that it were. I wish the Democrats would stop trying to take my guns away and that I had the body I did 50 years ago.

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo54:

For sure! Just look at the markets today.

And the Democrats are DELIGHTED!

This is my biggest nightmare right now: The Dems get everyone in a sheer panic, the economy crashes and Trump gets all the blame and loses in November to whatever Commie they come up with.

This thing is not good timing for him at all.

Those who would blame Trump for this were never going to vote for him anyway. I'm seriously considering buying tomorrow.

I'm considering it as well. Buy low is the strategy. Hard to tell where the low point will be however. Hard to tell how media driven this "crisis" is. Obviously I would rather it end quickly than make money on the media helping to drive everything down. The reality is there is opportunity during turbulent times. When there is blood on the streets...

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
The mask is not to PROTECT you from GETTING this virus, it's to stop YOU from blasting others with your snot and coughs and giving it to THEM.

That's what "they" say, but you'll notice that every medical worker in every video and photo you see will be wearing one.

So there's a bit of a disconnect between what "they" recommend and what "they" are doing.

In general , there are 2 types of masks available. The loose fitting , cheaper and more comfortable is the one you see most folks wearing. If you look closely , they don't provide any kind of "seal " around the edges. This type , when you inhale , the air enters via the sides of the mask. You are not inhaling filtered air. Therefore , it is not protecting you.
If you also look closely at hospital workers that are actually working with infected patients, you'll see that "they" are wearing a different type of mask. It is tight fitting, hot, and unpleasant to wear. It does seal around the edges ( they test fit each individual). The person wearing it gets all of his air through the filter material of the mask and exhales in a similar fashion. Because they are so tight fitting , they quickly become wet from the moisture you normally exhale . They need to be changed every few hours.
If you see a medical person wearing one of the loose fitting masks , it is only because their hospital has run out of the correct ones and it's the best they can do. Better than nothing.
Please give "they" a break..."They " are the ones that are caring for these folks and running the risk of becoming infected or ( worse yet) taking the virus home and infecting their loved ones.
Would you care for some stranger who was infected with Covid19 ? Sars ? How about Ebola ?? How much would someone have to pay you to wipe up the blood that a stranger just coughed up or puked up ?
Just asking....mike

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
... you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.

You keep claiming that, yet everything else I've read suggests SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious than influenza. Do you have a cite?

Can anyone explain China's freak out ? It's not like they can't afford to lose a million of their unwashed masses. And if 4 out of 5 just get a cold, what is the big deal ?

Finally some promising news.

Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-S...virus-vaccine-619101

Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process and potentially more to enter the marketplace.

Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

“Congratulations to MIGAL [The Galilee Research Institute] on this exciting breakthrough,” Akunis said. “I am confident there will be further rapid progress, enabling us to provide a needed response to the grave global COVID-19 threat,” Akunis said, referring to the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
For the past four years, a team of MIGAL scientists has been developing a vaccine against infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which causes a bronchial disease affecting poultry. The effectiveness of the vaccine has been proven in preclinical trials carried out at the Veterinary Institute.

MIGAL is located in the Galilee.
“Our basic concept was to develop the technology and not specifically a vaccine for this kind or that kind of virus,” said Dr. Chen Katz, MIGAL’s biotechnology group leader. “The scientific framework for the vaccine is based on a new protein expression vector, which forms and secretes a chimeric soluble protein that delivers the viral antigen into mucosal tissues by self-activated endocytosis, causing the body to form antibodies against the virus.”

Endocytosis is a cellular process in which substances are brought into a cell by surrounding the material with cell membrane, forming a vesicle containing the ingested material.

In preclinical trials, the team demonstrated that the oral vaccination induces high levels of specific anti-IBV antibodies, Katz said.
“Let’s call it pure luck,” he said. “We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.”

But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said.

“All we need to do is adjust the system to the new sequence,” he said. “We are in the middle of this process, and hopefully in a few weeks we will have the vaccine in our hands. Yes, in a few weeks, if it all works, we would have a vaccine to prevent coronavirus.”
MIGAL would be responsible for developing the new vaccine, but it would then have to go through a regulatory process, including clinical trials and large-scale production, Katz said.

Akunis said he has instructed his ministry’s director-general to fast-track all approval processes with the goal of bringing the human vaccine to market as quickly as possible.
“Given the urgent global need for a human coronavirus vaccine, we are doing everything we can to accelerate development,” MIGAL CEO David Zigdon said. The vaccine could “achieve safety approval in 90 days,” he said.

It will be an oral vaccine, making it particularly accessible to the general public, Zigdon said.

“We are currently in intensive discussions with potential partners that can help accelerate the in-human trials phase and expedite completion of final-product development and regulatory activities,” he said.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
... you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.

You keep claiming that, yet everything else I've read suggests SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious than influenza. Do you have a cite?

Do you know where Flu originates? If so, how many people have the Flu globally???

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
... you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.

You keep claiming that, yet everything else I've read suggests SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious than influenza. Do you have a cite?

Do you know where Flu originates? If so, how many people have the Flu globally???

I watched Dr. Mark Seigel on Fox not an hour ago say the coronavirus is probably more contagious.

edit: I watched the video and he said probably.

13:50 in the video...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYiQqRNXWsk

what or where is everyone buying mask from, I have a NBC grade mask from USMC but any suggestions on on line cheap mask ?

quote:

Originally posted by golddot:
what or where is everyone buying mask from, I have a NBC grade mask from USMC but any suggestions on on line cheap mask ?

I think the N95 masks are what you want. You might still find a few at Lowes or Home Depot. Maybe.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
You need to take a Statistics class. If a river is 10 miles long and 1” deep everywhere except for a tenth of a mile section where it’s a mile deep, then the river is too dangerous to cross b/c on average it’s 52.8 feet deep. Instead one needs to break down the figures that go into the aggregate data. In addition to mortality, you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.
Finally I’m tired of people saying we have a vaccine for the latter. Only two strains are selected each year for antigen replication/production, which make up the innoculant. It’s not an all-encompassing vaccine by any means and the antigenic decision is a best-guess prediction as to which Flu strain will make its way from China to the U.S.

Yes, I have taken a statistics class (although it was almost 30 years ago). And, yes, I agree that certain groups will be more at risk than others.

However, do you have the information on a breakdown of fatalities due to COVID-19. I've searched and I haven't found anything.

As for a vaccine, there are companies and countries who are working on one right now. But as you point out this takes time.

Yes, I understand that the flu vaccine is a best guess and is not always 100% effective in preventing the strains that eventually make their way into the wild. But sometimes they do work as advertised. Sometimes they guess right. Sometimes they guess wrong.

As for when, if ever, a vaccine for COVID-19 may be available, probably at best six months.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
Do you know where Flu originates? If so, how many people have the Flu globally???

My understanding:

There are two types of flu virus, avian (birds) and swine (pigs). Of the two, avian is much more common.

The flu originates in migratory birds in Asian (think China). It jumps species to domestic birds and then jumps species to humans. From there it spreads around the world.

Because the pattern is pretty well established, infectious disease doctors can guess which strains will be prevalent in flu season and manufacture vaccines to help prevent flu. But since the flu virus mutates the flu vaccine may not be effective when the flu season arrives.

From what I have been reading so far, they have not seen much mutation in the COVID-19 virus. So there is a good chance that they may be able to produce a vaccine for it that will be effective. But that vaccine is at least six months away if not longer.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
... you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.

You keep claiming that, yet everything else I've read suggests SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious than influenza. Do you have a cite?

I believe the mistake some are making is comparing R0 between Coronavirus and Influenza, which is listed against a single strain. Unfortunately, the Flu consists of multiple strains in a given season. Very few realize that while the general public is provided vaccination against 2, sometimes 3 strains, another vaccine reserved for critical persons high in the government and U.S. healthcare system may contain the top 10-20 strains that may originate from Asia. In short, one isn't tackling one strain with the Flu... unlike the recent Coronavirus strain, which as far as I've seen hasn't mutated since its crossover. You can bet it will eventually, given it's an RNA virus.

quote:

Originally posted by Broadside:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
Do you know where Flu originates? If so, how many people have the Flu globally???

My understanding:

There are two types of flu virus, avian (birds) and swine (pigs). Of the two, avian is much more common.

The flu originates in migratory birds in Asian (think China). It jumps species to domestic birds and then jumps species to humans. From there it spreads around the world.

Because the pattern is pretty well established, infectious disease doctors can guess which strains will be prevalent in flu season and manufacture vaccines to help prevent flu. But since the flu virus mutates the flu vaccine may not be effective when the flu season arrives.

From what I have been reading so far, they have not seen much mutation in the COVID-19 virus. So there is a good chance that they may be able to produce a vaccine for it that will be effective. But that vaccine is at least six months away if not longer.

Due to pigs close proximity to people in China and they're immune systems are very similar to ours (pigs are model systems for pre-clinical development of immune therapies for a reason), swine Flu trends towards greater infectivity.

If by Infectious Disease doctors you mean the WHO, then yes, that agency's personnel spend the prior year in China investigating the rate of infection and structure of newly emerging influenza strains to make a recommendation to government agencies as to potential threats. Gov't health authorities and the CDC contract out manufacturing to multiple vaccine manufacturers to generate antigenic material for the strains they believe are the greatest concern. Vaccine manufacturing often requires CHO (Chinese Hamster Ovary) bioprocessing, which takes 4-6 months on average to qualify for CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing & Control) purposes to the FDA's satisfaction. It's then the safety and efficacy studies can begin... but manufacturing and studies can be accelerated or dropped altogether if the situation so warrants.

quote:

Originally posted by oldbill123:
Can anyone explain China's freak out ? It's not like they can't afford to lose a million of their unwashed masses. And if 4 out of 5 just get a cold, what is the big deal ?

The other "1" can end up in a hospital.

I don't think it is 1 out of 5. I think it is 1 out of 20. But when you are talking a billion people, 1 out of 20 is a lot of people in hospitals.

The question is how quickly and what percent of the population will become infected. If you can delay the spread, then you don't have as many people in the hospital all at once and you can manage it.

Dakor, why isn't the general public given the vaccination with 10-20 strains in it?

What if it like, never leaves your body? Like ya know mannn, you’re sick forever. That would suck.