The biggest preventer of spread is the destruction of virus on available fomites. It does little good to wash your hands repeatedly when simply touching a clean looking surface or object renders them vectors again.

I also firmly believe that is why the rate of spread had been so low in the US. Suspected cases have been duly isolated and sterilization protocols are being followed.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
The only way we're going to find out is if it truly gets loose in a civilized country.

Which is why I tell people to watch Italy. In the last 24 hours, case count there has increased by about 100 to currently 322, and deaths by three to ten eleven, both close to a 50 percent rise. As noted, the rather high mortality seems in part because of a spread within hospitals from initially unrecognized cases; for comparison, South Korea has the same number of deaths with thrice the total case count.

To keep tracking this, with 528 confirmed cases and 17 deaths in Italy now, fatality rate has remained remarkably stable (and high) at ca. three percent there. Meanwhile in South Korea, the rate is actually dropping with 1,766 cases and 13 deaths = 0.7 percent. Though comparability may be compromised by information lag; the Johns Hopkins tracker still shows 14 deaths for Italy, but news already report 17. So by now numbers of both Italian cases and South Korean deaths may be higher.

Two distinct clusters in Germany, with the one related to the couple in NRW far more serious. Between the hospital and carnival event they visited and the wife's kindergarden, a total of 400 contact persons have been placed under home quarantine. The BW cluster is smaller, but with a twist. The first cases's girlfriend also brought it back from Italy and passed it on to her father, who happens to be a pathology resident at a local hospital; quarantine measures put a dozen of his colleagues there out of circulation.

Asked the first customer I went to today (car dealer and garage) when greeting whether they were still shaking hands, and he said no, they were preparing. Second customer (real estate agent), the lady greeting me extended her hand before I could ask, which I automatically grabbed. Habits are harder to shake than hands.

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Also: Keep hands away from face. That's harder than it seems. When I started consciously doing that, several influenza outbreaks ago, I regularly caught myself violating that part of the protocol.

Three decades as a dentist have trained me quite well to keep my hands off my face.

Doc H: When you were in dental school, did they show you the movie "If Saliva Were Red"?

It sounds silly, but was actually a pretty darn good illustration of how casual touching of surfaces spreads contamination.

When I started out life as a dentist they didn't have movies . I actually knew Therese Long and the folks responsible for producing it in OSAP, and later made it mandatory viewing for my surgeons and OR staff - I think dentists are actually the best equipped in the medical world to understand community infection control measures, other than IC specialists and epidemiologists (and of course iron-boots Central Sterile nurse managers) - most dentists are responsible for their own sterilization protocols and sterile supply. My dental training was one of the best infection control "residencies" I had. In my stint on the Surgeon General's IG team in the Air Force the dental services had the most wrapped-up processes for IC.

Retired now from everything, but retain a faculty appointment at UNMC, and you may have seen Dr. Mark Siegel on Fox visiting our biocontainment unit. An incredible group of professionals, and some of the best infectious disease specialists and researchers in the world - that's how I know we'll get ahead of this. And COL Cox at USAMRIID has not exactly been twiddling his fingers. A bad bug, but by far not the worst actor on the stage in the world of infectious diseases, and hopefully between the press and the politics we'll see a lowering of the "OMG" factor, and a boost to our capability in the US, both in pharmacology development, treatment and prediction of these emerging threats. We got off lucky this time in my opinion, and in spite of the sturm und drang, and the ongoing angst and likely months of recovery, it could have been worse. A lot worse.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H:
Retired now from everything, but retain a faculty appointment at UNMC, and you may have seen Dr. Mark Siegel on Fox visiting our biocontainment unit. An incredible group of professionals, and some of the best infectious disease specialists and researchers in the world - that's how I know we'll get ahead of this. And COL Cox at USAMRIID has not exactly been twiddling his fingers. A bad bug, but by far not the worst actor on the the stage in the world of infectious diseases, and hopefully between the press and the politics we'll see a lowering of the "OMG" factor, and a boost to our capability in the US, both in pharmacology development, treatment and prediction of these emerging threats. We got off lucky this time in my opinion, and in spite of the sturm und drang, and the ongoing angst and likely months of recovery, it could have been worse. A lot worse.

Pretty cool that the physicians from the biomedicine unit at UNMC are training hospitals all over the country in management and Tx of this virus. My brother-in-law is a physician and graduate of UN Medical School there in Omaha, and rightfully proud of UNMC’s lead role in this country with infectious disease. This facility has filled that role for many years, and many infectious diseases. It gives me a lot of confidence.

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
A friend of mine is a nurse here in Atlanta. Her hospital has its first confirmed case.

Still not on the John Hopkins count/map. Wonder what the lag time there is??

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The hysteria will absolutely cause more pain and suffering than the actual virus.

100%

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
A friend of mine is a nurse here in Atlanta. Her hospital has its first confirmed case.

Still not on the John Hopkins count/map. Wonder what the lag time there is??

I don't see this anywhere I think your nurse friend doesn't have her facts straight

quote:

Originally posted by CCR:

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:

quote:

Originally posted by Shaql:
A friend of mine is a nurse here in Atlanta. Her hospital has its first confirmed case.

Still not on the John Hopkins count/map. Wonder what the lag time there is??

I don't see this anywhere I think your nurse friend doesn't have her facts straight

Seems that way, doesnt it?

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by jsbcody:
Some perspective:

COVID-19: Approximately 2,770 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 26, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Maybe the media is paying attention to the wrong thing.

This is my take on it as well.

The fatality rate of flue is 0.2%. This means that 1 out of every 500 people who contract it die. The fatality rate of COVID-19 is currently estimated at 2% to 4%. Using the optimistic number of 2%, that means that one out of every 50 people who contract it will die.

Add to that the fact that COVID-19 is transitted much easier than flu.

I think we are late to the party. This thread started over a month ago. The current thinking is that the first infection occurred back in mid to late November of last year. The only reason we are seeing this in the press now is that CNN ran out of other things attack Trump on.

Keep in mind that while this was getting started CNN was covering the impeachment started by the Democrats and the first two Democrat primaries.

With that said, mark my words on this. This thing can very easily turn into Trump's Katrina moment. If Trump loses the election in November it will have started his handling of this virus.

A fatality rate of one in 50 people means that everyone in the U.S. will know someone who dies from this. How many people do you know that have died from flu?

quote:

Originally posted by Broadside:

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by jsbcody:
Some perspective:

COVID-19: Approximately 2,770 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 26, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Maybe the media is paying attention to the wrong thing.

This is my take on it as well.

The fatality rate of flue is 0.2%. This means that 1 out of every 500 people who contract it die. The fatality rate of COVID-19 is currently estimated at 2% to 4%. Using the optimistic number of 2%, that means that one out of every 50 people who contract it will die.

Add to that the fact that COVID-19 is transitted much easier than flu.

I think we are late to the party. This thread started over a month ago. The current thinking is that the first infection occurred back in mid to late November or last year. The only reason we are seeing this in the press now is that CNN ran out of other things attack Trump on.

Keep in mind that while this was getting started CNN was covering the impeachment started by the Democrats and the first two Democrat primaries.

With that said, mark my words on this. This thing can very easily turn into Trump's Katrina moment. If Trump loses the election in November it will have started his handling of this virus.

A fatality rate of one in 50 people means that everyone in the U.S. will know someone who dies from this. How many people do you know that have died from flu?

Those are good points but, we have a vaccine for the flu. We will not have a vaccine for COV19 for at least 12 months.

Let’s put some perspective on this...

Most of the people who have died are over 80
Most of the people who have died have had pre-existing conditions that exacerbated their condition
Most of the people who have died lived in third world shit holes.

https://www.worldometers.info/...ge-sex-demographics/

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
Those are good points but, we have a vaccine for the flu. We will not have a vaccine for COV19 for at least 12 months.

That is a good point as well.

Now to give the other side of the story, four out of five people who contract this will have nothing more than a cold.

However, 5%, that is one in 20, will need to be hospitalized.

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The hysteria will absolutely cause more pain and suffering than the actual virus.

100%

For sure! Just look at the markets today.

Jim

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo54:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The hysteria will absolutely cause more pain and suffering than the actual virus.

100%

For sure! Just look at the markets today.

Jim

It's really a damned shame.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo54:

For sure! Just look at the markets today.

And the Democrats are DELIGHTED!

This is my biggest nightmare right now: The Dems get everyone in a sheer panic, the economy crashes and Trump gets all the blame and loses in November to whatever Commie they come up with.

This thing is not good timing for him at all.

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo54:

For sure! Just look at the markets today.

And the Democrats are DELIGHTED!

This is my biggest nightmare right now: The Dems get everyone in a sheer panic, the economy crashes and Trump gets all the blame and loses in November to whatever Commie they come up with.

This thing is not good timing for him at all.

Those who would blame Trump for this were never going to vote for him anyway. I'm seriously considering buying tomorrow.

quote:

Originally posted by Broadside:

quote:

Originally posted by jljones:

quote:

Originally posted by jsbcody:
Some perspective:

COVID-19: Approximately 2,770 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 26, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Maybe the media is paying attention to the wrong thing.

This is my take on it as well.

The fatality rate of flue is 0.2%. This means that 1 out of every 500 people who contract it die. The fatality rate of COVID-19 is currently estimated at 2% to 4%. Using the optimistic number of 2%, that means that one out of every 50 people who contract it will die.

Add to that the fact that COVID-19 is transitted much easier than flu.

I think we are late to the party. This thread started over a month ago. The current thinking is that the first infection occurred back in mid to late November of last year. The only reason we are seeing this in the press now is that CNN ran out of other things attack Trump on.

Keep in mind that while this was getting started CNN was covering the impeachment started by the Democrats and the first two Democrat primaries.

With that said, mark my words on this. This thing can very easily turn into Trump's Katrina moment. If Trump loses the election in November it will have started his handling of this virus.

A fatality rate of one in 50 people means that everyone in the U.S. will know someone who dies from this. How many people do you know that have died from flu?

You need to take a Statistics class. If a river is 10 miles long and 1” deep everywhere except for a tenth of a mile section where it’s a mile deep, then the river is too dangerous to cross b/c on average it’s 52.8 feet deep. Instead one needs to break down the figures that go into the aggregate data. In addition to mortality, you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.
Finally I’m tired of people saying we have a vaccine for the latter. Only two strains are selected each year for antigen replication/production, which make up the innoculant. It’s not an all-encompassing vaccine by any means and the antigenic decision is a best-guess prediction as to which Flu strain will make its way from China to the U.S.

I know (probably should say knew) three people that died from the flu (complications, actually - very few people die from the flu itself) in the last two years.

The latest one was last month, and they were only 34 years old and seemingly healthy before contracting the flu.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
I know (probably should say knew) three people that died from the flu (complications, actually - very few people die from the flu itself) in the last two years.

The latest one was last month, and they were only 34 years old and seemingly healthy before contracting the flu.

I contracted the Influenza-A strain in 2015 (in my 40s) and I was losing the fight, until they put me on antiviral meds (protease inhibitor) at the hospital. Heart arrhythmia made the medical staff jump into action, after I stupidly waited too long to seek medical care.

The reactions by the public as a whole and by individuals who don’t necessarily come down with it are as much an aspect of the disease as the effects of the disease itself on those who do. Panicked reactions to epidemics are as old as history, and there is simply no way to separate them from the disease. It is futile to wish that it were. I wish the Democrats would stop trying to take my guns away and that I had the body I did 50 years ago.