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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Baroque Bloke
Picture of Pipe Smoker
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
It's all about relative risk and the appropriate precautions.

I wear a seat belt when I drive.

I wear a crash helmet when my wife drives.

Smile



Serious about crackers
 
Posts: 9165 | Location: San Diego | Registered: July 26, 2014Reply With QuoteReport This Post
As Extraordinary
as Everyone Else
Picture of smlsig
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Broadside:
quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
You need to take a Statistics class. If a river is 10 miles long and 1” deep everywhere except for a tenth of a mile section where it’s a mile deep, then the river is too dangerous to cross b/c on average it’s 52.8 feet deep. Instead one needs to break down the figures that go into the aggregate data. In addition to mortality, you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.
Finally I’m tired of people saying we have a vaccine for the latter. Only two strains are selected each year for antigen replication/production, which make up the innoculant. It’s not an all-encompassing vaccine by any means and the antigenic decision is a best-guess prediction as to which Flu strain will make its way from China to the U.S.


Yes, I have taken a statistics class (although it was almost 30 years ago). And, yes, I agree that certain groups will be more at risk than others.

However, do you have the information on a breakdown of fatalities due to COVID-19. I've searched and I haven't found anything.

As for a vaccine, there are companies and countries who are working on one right now. But as you point out this takes time.

Yes, I understand that the flu vaccine is a best guess and is not always 100% effective in preventing the strains that eventually make their way into the wild. But sometimes they do work as advertised. Sometimes they guess right. Sometimes they guess wrong.

As for when, if ever, a vaccine for COVID-19 may be available, probably at best six months.


Here is the breakdown of fatalities you asked for...
https://www.worldometers.info/...ge-sex-demographics/

As you can see it predominantly affects older people and those with otherwise compromised immune systems..


------------------
Eddie

Our Founding Fathers were men who understood that the right thing is not necessarily the written thing. -kkina
 
Posts: 6385 | Location: In transit | Registered: February 19, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Eating elephants
one bite at a time
Picture of ffips
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by jimmy123x:
Coronavirus Death rates are about 1 in 50 and that's how it really differs from flu.


Life death rates are 100%. Coronavirus, flu or life ain't no one getting off this rock alive. Wink
 
Posts: 3573 | Location: in the southwest Atlanta metro area | Registered: September 10, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of PowerSurge
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ffips:
quote:
Originally posted by jimmy123x:
Coronavirus Death rates are about 1 in 50 and that's how it really differs from flu.


Life death rates are 100%. Coronavirus, flu or life ain't no one getting off this rock alive. Wink


Yep. And that death rate would be a lot better if China and their shitty healthcare system wasn’t involved.


———————————————
The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1
 
Posts: 3988 | Location: Northeast Georgia | Registered: November 18, 2017Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by rburg:
quote:
Originally posted by 46and2:
It's a good whiskey hoarding Starter Kit.

Why would you hoard bad whiskey?

I wouldn't.

Smile
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by 46and2:
quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
quote:
Originally posted by Dakor:
... you also need to take into consideration infectivity. This is where the Flu blows the Coronavirus out of the water.

You keep claiming that, yet everything else I've read suggests SARS-CoV-2 is much more infectious than influenza. Do you have a cite?

I believe the mistake some are making is comparing R0 between Coronavirus and Influenza, which is listed against a single strain. Unfortunately, the Flu consists of multiple strains in a given season. Very few realize that while the general public is provided vaccination against 2, sometimes 3 strains, another vaccine reserved for critical persons high in the government and U.S. healthcare system may contain the top 10-20 strains that may originate from Asia. In short, one isn't tackling one strain with the Flu... unlike the recent Coronavirus strain, which as far as I've seen hasn't mutated since its crossover. You can bet it will eventually, given it's an RNA virus.

Wait, what?

"Important" people have better / more comprehensive flu vaccines?

Can't say I've ever heard that before.


Just FYI about the SNS (formerly the National Pharmaceutical Stockpile, NPS), and it does get distributed according to specific protocols for specific scenarios (the Pentagon being high on the list depending on the scenario, or public health officials in others, or mass distribution centers). Just as evacuations are planned and exercised for evacuating key leadership from the Capitol on a periodic basis, or having a Designated Survivor. Some animals are more equal than others, but hopefully the right animals. The forest is still a scary place.

Strategic National Stockpile



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H:
Just FYI about the SNS (formerly the National Pharmaceutical Stockpile, NPS), and it does get distributed according to specific protocols for specific scenarios (the Pentagon being high on the list depending on the scenario, or public health officials in others, or mass distribution centers). Just as evacuations are planned and exercised for evacuating key leadership from the Capitol on a periodic basis, or having a Designated Survivor. Some animals are more equal than others, but hopefully the right animals. The forest is still a scary place.

Strategic National Stockpile

Every bit of that, except special/better vaccines, is normal and reasonable.

That only some get the best medicine is, well, something else entirely.

Thanks for the explanation.
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Res ipsa loquitur
Picture of BB61
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So I’m finishing my basement and went looking at paint yesterday. Wow! Not a freaking mask anywhere. Come on people, your little dust mask isn’t going to stop a virus but it will stop pain droplets/mist for me. Fortunately, I’m 2-3 weeks out so I’m hoping things will have calmed down by then. But still. Mad


__________________________

 
Posts: 12514 | Registered: October 13, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Israeli who recovered in Japan develops coronavirus again in Israel

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking...rus-in-Israel-619215

Shimon Dahan returned from quarantine in Japan after having having been presumed to be "recovered", following his infection with the virus on the Princess Diamond cruise ship and subsequent quarantine in Tokyo.

The man flew home to Israel after he was released from quarantine in Japan and is the third to be diagnosed as having the virus of the passengers who were brought back to Israel from the Princess Diamond.
Dahan's sister, Rachel Biton, was the first to be released from quarantine in Japan and sent home to Israel on Tuesday after recovering from the virus.

A spokesperson for the family says they are not currently responding to the issue, as they are still waiting to receive answers to the many questions that came as a result of the report.
"If there is anything to say about the matter, you will be notified after the Sabbath."

Dahan flew home to Israel on two commercial flights, both with Turkish Airlines: flight TK53 from Tokyo via Istanbul, and flight TK784 from Istanbul to Tel Aviv, which landed in Israel at 08:55.
All passengers who were on either of the two aforementioned flight must enter a home quarantine immediately for the next 14 days and report to the Israeli Ministry of Health.

After being diagnosed, Dahan was transferred to be quarantined at Sheba Medical Center, along with the remaining healthy Princess Diamond passengers.

Later on Friday, two Israeli men from northern Israel were diagnosed with coronavirus after returning from separate trips to Italy, according to the Israeli Ministry of Health, making them the sixth and seventh Israeli citizens to be infected so far.

The sixth Israeli to be diagnosed is in his forties, and lives in Kibbutz Kabri. After returning from Italy on February 22 he was tested and was found not to have the disease.


_________________________
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it."
Mark Twain
 
Posts: 12842 | Registered: January 17, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by wcb6092:
Israeli who recovered in Japan develops coronavirus again in Israel



Or in other words, he probably never actually recovered.

I don't believe a damned thing the media is reporting about this virus. Not a damned thing.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

"Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light is winning." ~Rust Cohle
 
Posts: 30589 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
quote:
Originally posted by wcb6092:
Israeli who recovered in Japan develops coronavirus again in Israel



Or in other words, he probably never actually recovered.

I don't believe a damned thing the media is reporting about this virus. Not a damned thing.


Japan is holding people who tested positive until they receive 2 negative test results.


Tri-Cities woman to be released from hospital in Japan after 2 negative virus tests; preparing to fly home

https://www.wjhl.com/news/loca...eparing-to-fly-home/


_________________________
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it."
Mark Twain
 
Posts: 12842 | Registered: January 17, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Exceptional Circumstances
Picture of dave7378
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, everyone is getting what they wanted- a big frenzy. How ya likn' it? How's that stock market doing with all this fun, huh?

Thank the news media and thank all the other fear-mongers, be they groups or individuals.

What this will come down to is that the panic over this bug will be more harmful to society than the bug itself.


Fuckin media is trying to wreck the economy, and doing a good job in the short term. Try as they might to alter the next election while padding their advertising dollars by banking on fear. Despicable bastards.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
 
Posts: 5924 | Location: Hampton Bays, NY | Registered: October 14, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
posted Hide Post
Yeah, it looks like the media is going into full retard, chicken little mode now.
I think part of it is they're trying to use it as a weapon against Trump's reelection.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 16574 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Collecting dust.
 
Posts: 4143 | Location: Middle Tennessee | Registered: February 07, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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CDC Fixes COVID-19 Test Snafu; Symptoms Vary in Hospitalized Cases

https://www.medpagetoday.com/i...isease/covid19/85156

CDC officials said Friday that they had solved problems with COVID-19 coronavirus testing kits for state and local public health departments, which had plagued the agency over the last couple weeks: use only two components, and ignore the problematic one.

With the third reagent reportedly causing inconclusive test results, CDC said the test kits can now be used with only the first two components, which are appropriately sensitive and specific to detect COVID-19 cases, Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on a call with reporters.

States that are "able to validate only two components can test only those two using revised instructions. The third component can be excluded from testing," she said.

CDC officials added the FDA agrees with this approach, and has given "discretionary authority to proceed" with this new protocol with only two components. Orders can now be placed for this new two-component test, though all testing will still be sent to CDC for confirmation.

Messonnier previously said 12 state and local public health departments have the ability to test for COVID-19 coronavirus. The agency's goal is that "every state and local health department" has that ability by the end of next week, she said.

Ideally, this would allow states to report their own numbers of cases, though Messonnier said they are still working through "procedures ... with states and the FDA in terms of confirmatory testing."

"It's possible there might be a presumptive positive [test] awaiting confirmation, but state and local health departments can still take action," Messonnier said.

While CDC works to get out these new testing kits, work on COVID-19 coronavirus surveillance continues. Messonnier noted that next week, the first six influenza surveillance sites should begin testing for COVID-19, with the hope to "rapidly move from six to all 50 states," she said.

Messonnier also briefly discussed the 15th U.S. case of COVID-19, stating that "according to CDC records," the hospital asked for the patient to be tested on Feb. 23, not Feb. 19, as other media had reported. She added that the public health investigation into this case continues, with the goal of determining whether the patient contracted the virus through community spread or through contact with a returning traveler.

Most of an 1,100-patient cohort hospitalized in China for COVID-19 did not initially have fever, and many had no radiologic abnormalities, reported Nan-shan Zhong, MD, and colleagues in the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for COVID-19.

About 6% of patients were admitted to an intensive care unit, required mechanical ventilation, or died, the authors wrote in a paper published online Friday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

They examined data from about 1,100 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in 552 hospitals in 30 Chinese provinces through Jan. 29. Patients' median age was 47, and 42% were women. Just under one-quarter had a preexisting condition, such as hypertension or COPD.

Most patients were classified as having non-severe disease, and the authors noted those with severe disease were older than the non-severe patients by a median of 7 years.

Overall, about 5% were admitted to the ICU, 2.3% required mechanical ventilation, and 1.4% died. Cough was the most common symptom, with over two-thirds presenting with cough upon admission. Interestingly, only about 40% presented with fever, though nearly all developed fever while hospitalized. The authors also noted that about 16% of patients developed "severe illness" after admission to the hospital.

Over 80% of patients had lymphocytopenia present at admission, and most had elevated levels of C-reactive protein.

Researchers reported a median incubation period of 4 days. While ground-glass opacity was the most common finding on chest CT imaging, they added that in 18% of non-severe cases, no radiographic or CT abnormality was found.

Around 60% of patients received intravenous antibiotics, while about 35% received oseltamivir therapy. About 40% of patients required oxygen therapy.

Patients stayed in the hospital for a median of 12 days, during which time most received a diagnosis of pneumonia.

Researchers noted limitations to the data, such as incomplete documentation of exposure history and laboratory testing, which varied by hospital, and that the incubation period could only be estimated in 291 patients with documented information. Also, it was restricted to patients admitted to hospitals and therefore shed no light on characteristics or prevalence of less severe disease for which patients received outpatient care or none at all.


_________________________
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it."
Mark Twain
 
Posts: 12842 | Registered: January 17, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of erj_pilot
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
Yeah, it looks like the media is going into full retard, chicken little mode now.
I think part of it is they're trying to use it as a weapon against Trump's reelection.
Winner! Winner!




"If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne

"Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24
 
Posts: 11066 | Location: NW Houston | Registered: April 04, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Alienator
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Well boys, my family and I are still alive and healthy, lol. It's been 20 days since we got back from Taiwan through LA and Dulles.



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Psalm 118:24 "This is the day which the Lord hath made; we will rejoice and be glad in it"
 
Posts: 7106 | Location: NC | Registered: March 16, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ignored facts
still exist
posted Hide Post
Virus is in Oregon. One case so far. School employee. Most affluent district in the state.

(Please no political comments regarding Oregon).


----------------------
Let's Go Brandon!
 
Posts: 11008 | Location: 45 miles from the Pacific Ocean | Registered: February 28, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Res ipsa loquitur
Picture of BB61
posted Hide Post
^^^^^
You just think that. In actuality, you all are new cast members for TWD. Wink


__________________________

 
Posts: 12514 | Registered: October 13, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lost
Picture of kkina
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by radioman:
Virus is in Oregon. One case so far. School employee. Most affluent district in the state.

(Please no political comments regarding Oregon).

Most significantly it is a community-spread case. We have the second such case in the Bay Area.



ACCU-STRUT FOR MINI-14
"First, Eyes."
 
Posts: 16498 | Location: SF Bay Area | Registered: December 11, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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