Maybe they are testing for the wrong corona virus, one we all have. Or maybe we have already had this corona virus. OR MAYBE THIS IS A SCAM...

For what it’s worth, here’s my take.

From pretty much the beginning of health statistics the two leading killers in the United States are heart disease and Cancer.

Heart disease kills between 13,000-16,000 a week

Cancer kills between 11000-14000 a week

Two weeks ago Covid 19 killed basically 15,000 people. It may have been the leading killer in the United States that week

If we “extrapolate” like the two doctors like to do...if the death rate maintains its rate over 52 weeks it would kill more people than cancer becoming the number 2 killer of people in this country....that old joke, killed more people than cancer? If you use their extrapolation technique than this bug does that this year

(I’m not saying that’s going to happen...I’m just using the “actual data”, the same they have, and their extremely flawed mathematics to get there)


They keep talking about the really bad flu season or 2017-2018. They say it could have killed up to 60,000 over the 52 week period

According to a Johns Hopkins, Covid-10 has killed 52,000 in roughly 7 weeks.

There are roughly 30-35,000 deaths from car accidents. In 52 weeks

This killed 52,000 in 7 weeks.


Seem what I am doing here? I’m taking the exact same data and presenting it in a very different way. For some of them I used their flawed math.

Beyond their flawed mathematics, their insistence that this is the flu was what killed it for me. If you keep spouting “look the flu killed 55,000 people in 2017-2-18...this has killed 51,000...see the flu!” And neglecting to mention that “this has killed 51,000...in pretty much less than a grading period “ then it’s very hard to take you seriously


I liked what a1abdj said: we did what we thought was right based on the data. Now we have new data and we need to change what we are doing based on what we know now


Was this as bad as the initial projections and models?


No, absolutely not. Thankfully.

Is it as minimal as these guys are trying to make out to be? As just a more serious version of the flu?

absolutely not. In fact if you used their flawed extrapolation and simply multiply the number of people killed over the last 2 weeks times 26 it has a chance to challenge cancer and heart disease as the reigning champions


Is it, as it usually is, somewhere in the middle?

Yep. We absolutely need to take what we know and responsibly open, employ, educate, etc....because we absolutely can

Like many here, I've been reading for hundreds of pages. We've agreed to disagree on some interpretations, we've seen the experts disagree. About masks, gloves, how long it lives, or what test or treatment even works. I believe more than anything else we've seen the early worst case scenarios turn and continuously march towards the early best case of a new and nasty flu. Not da'bola, not Andromeda, not zombies.

Been said before - It's not IF we get exposed it's when. Lets get careful with our most vulnerable. The rest of us - get back to living!!

Now that we've bent the curve and see how widespread it's likely become, I see no sense in tracing in heavily affected areas. Stop talking this shit as a condition of opening back up. It's a money grab. (Brand new unaffected areas, eh, OK, but it doesn't matter.)

I'm in strong disagreement in the stay at home orders being slowly lifted - contingent on <50 new cases in the county (PA rules for stage 1) You test enough people you'll find the cases to keep us locked up.

Lastly, Feds need to STOP SPENDING!! We simply cannot equal the damage done without waste or inequity.

My .02

This NYC nurse practitioner has much to say and it has the ring of truth.

https://theconservativetreehou...rk-city/#more-190115

quote:

Originally posted by Kevbo:
For what it’s worth, here’s my take.

....

Is it, as it usually is, somewhere in the middle?

Yep. We absolutely need to take what we know and responsibly open, employ, educate, etc....because we absolutely can

Pretty much my take on this as well. Problem is we don't have all the data needed to make good decision and they are being made on the fly. I sure as hell don't buy the current 60,000 deaths estimate, but I don't think the earlier 2,000,000+ estimates are right either.

I am no doctor or policy expert so I can't say what the best course of action may be, but I can say I wouldn't want to be in the room with those forced to make those decisions, no matter what they are wrong. They are working with incomplete date, and possibly flawed data and expected to be right. Especially with PDJT at the helm, no matter what he does, it will be viewed as killing people or the economy.

Personally, I am going to continue to treat is as an unknown threat, and take all reasonable cautions I can until better data comes in. I do fear we may have wrecked the economy for very little return on lives saved due the the silent nature of it in so many people. The time to lock down may have been before we recognized it was going to be bad.

I am left thinking right now there is nothing we can do, the old; people in poor health; and the unlucky are just going to die. If it happens all at once or spread out over the next year, it will still be the same amount of deaths. The only difference is that under one avenue we wreck the economy in the process, under the other we have a lot of deaths at once and we look like we sacrificed the old/frail/unlucky for our pocket books. It's a catch 22. The logical choice is to not wreck the economy, while at the same time locking down places in danger of having hospital system overrun. On a personal level I am going to do whatever I can to avoid getting this bug.

On a policy level it looks like it might be best to just let it run it's course, but how is PJDT supposed to say that on TV when people are seeing granny and paw paw dying?

Kevbo, I think you are conflating testing positive for COVID 19 and it killing you. Just as they said, thousands of people died that were positive with FLU, but the flu isn't what killed them, their lifestyle and genetics did them in. I would wager that if every single person that dies was tested for the flu it would explain what they were hinting at in the video, that it's nothing more than a padding of numbers. I get that people are scared but the lack of reasoning I am seeing is disturbing and ultimately self defeating. My 91 year old grandmother was diagnosed with hypertension 2 years ago. Recently, she has developed an issue where she retains fluid and has falling/fainting spells but flat out refuses to get treatment because she's afraid of catching the Wu Flu if she goes to the ER. How many thousands of people are doing the same? Enough to shut down entire wings of hospitals because there aren't enough patients coming in to get treatment.

To reiterate the Doc's points in the video, let me put it another way....ALL GUN DEATHS are harped on by the leftist gun controllers right? But we know that most of those deaths are suicides and therefore shouldn't be looked at when calculating data that impacts everyone's civil liberties. It's all agenda driven and putting a hash mark in 1 column is easy to do when there are no repercussions for being wrong.

deBlasio wants 7 Billion from the federal govt to make NY City "whole"

https://theconservativetreehou...bailout/#more-190105

The Kung Flu death rate in the US is .00016134% (54,856 deaths against a population of 340,000,000) and that’s with the known lied about death numbers.

Food for thought.

^^ off by a factor of 100, but still a very good point.

quote:

Originally posted by Kevbo:
For what it’s worth, here’s my take.

From pretty much the beginning of health statistics the two leading killers in the United States are heart disease and Cancer.

Heart disease kills between 13,000-16,000 a week

Cancer kills between 11000-14000 a week

Two weeks ago Covid 19 killed basically 15,000 people. It may have been the leading killer in the United States that week

The problem is those Wuhan virus "confirmed death" numbers are false and greatly inflated.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
^^ off by a factor of 100, but still a very good point.

How so?

Comment about the doctor video on previous page

They said "20% of the NY state population are positive"

Why is that so misleading?

Cuomo reported that NY did a survey of about 3,000 people across regions and found 13.9% had antibodies indicating they had been infected with the coronavirus.

Cuomo extrapolated that to say nearly 14% of New Yorkers have been infected with COVID-19.

meaning the virus already may have afflicted as many as 2.7 million state residents.

https://www.newsday.com/news/h...-new-york-1.44047680

xxxxxxxxxxxxx


So Cuomo said 14% and the doctors in the video said 20%. Both numbers are in the same ballpark

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
^^ off by a factor of 100, but still a very good point.

How so?

I got schooled too, forgot to multiply by 100 to figure out percentage of a whole. No biggie, still a ridiculously low number

Found this

Very refreshing
No spin
Just data

The big problem I see with all the comparisons being made with cancer, heart disease, car accidents, obesity, etc. is that none of those are contagious. You're not going to get heart disease by being in close proximity with someone who does.

quote:

Originally posted by mutedblade:
I got schooled too, forgot to multiply by 100 to figure out percentage of a whole. No biggie, still a ridiculously low number

340,000,000 times .00016134 = 54,855.6 deaths. What am I missing?

Edit: Forget it. I just remembered it’s .016 percent. Been out of school too long.

Some of them most likely are

And there are likely deaths, especially early, not appropriately classified

The point is you have zero proof the Johns Hopkins numbers are inflated. So that’s what I go off of. There’s is the best gauge and what we can base the discussion upon, not conjecture and speculation.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Kevbo:
For what it’s worth, here’s my take.

From pretty much the beginning of health statistics the two leading killers in the United States are heart disease and Cancer.

Heart disease kills between 13,000-16,000 a week

Cancer kills between 11000-14000 a week

Two weeks ago Covid 19 killed basically 15,000 people. It may have been the leading killer in the United States that week

The problem is those Wuhan virus "confirmed death" numbers are false and greatly inflated.

What are the numbers for other killers over that time period?


Fortunately it’s not like 5% of the population dies every 7 weeks

Over a 7 week period heart disease will kill 50,000-75,000 people. The leading killer in the United States

So over the relevant period Covid-19 is challenging heart disease for the leading killer of Americans

How many people do you think die in this country normally over that period of time?

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by mutedblade:
I got schooled too, forgot to multiply by 100 to figure out percentage of a whole. No biggie, still a ridiculously low number

340,000,000 times .00016134 = 54,855.6 deaths. What am I missing?

Edit: Forget it. I just remembered it’s .016 percent. Been out of school too long.

quote:

Originally posted by Kevbo:
Some of them most likely are

And there are likely deaths, especially early, not appropriately classified

The point is you have zero proof the Johns Hopkins numbers are inflated.

Yes we do. In New York they even admitted adding deaths that they simply assumed were covid. In Pennsylvania the governor just happened to be caught adding fake deaths to the rolls. Even Dr. Birx said that they were being extremely liberal in how they were counting deaths.

The numbers are unquestionably inflated.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
deBlasio wants 7 Billion from the federal govt to make NY City "whole"

https://theconservativetreehou...bailout/#more-190105

That's fucking ludicrous. If we are going to play that game I want all my lost income AND my lost money from my 401-k PLUS interest. At the very least I want some of whatever he's smoking.