SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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Member |
^^^^^ There has to be a model that shows what happens on the "other side" of the bell curve after the number of cases reach critical mass. It WOULD be interesting to see the rate of infection for the Swine Flu over that year. I fully realize the daily rate wasn't a "flat rate" and increased over time, but then eventually began a decline. "If you’re a leader, you lead the way. Not just on the easy ones; you take the tough ones too…” – MAJ Richard D. Winters (1918-2011), E Company, 2nd Battalion, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 101st Airborne "Woe to those who call evil good, and good evil... Therefore, as tongues of fire lick up straw and as dry grass sinks down in the flames, so their roots will decay and their flowers blow away like dust; for they have rejected the law of the Lord Almighty and spurned the word of the Holy One of Israel." - Isaiah 5:20,24 | |||
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Lost |
Looks like the 2020 Summer Olympics, supposed to take place in Tokyo, are being postponed. Olympic games have been cancelled completely in the past, but never rescheduled. Will probably be moved to 2021. c|net | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
Florida Man uses logic and reason: "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday that he wants to avoid imposing a statewide lockdown like many other states have done, saying he still believes targeting the counties hardest hit by the coronavirus for the most extreme measures is the preferable path. DeSantis said about a third of Florida’s 67 counties have no confirmed cases and another third have few, so he doesn’t yet see the need to impose a near shutdown on their businesses that have been imposed in large counties such as Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach where the disease has spread into the community. Most of the counties with few or no infections are smaller ones along the state’s northern borders or surrounding Lake Okeechobee.." LINK And, I don't have a link yet, Edit: People coming to Florida from New York are being ordered to self-quarantine. On a side note, my county is closing boat ramps at 5pm tomorrow. Morons. We had three cases, 1 recovered, 2 current. | |||
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Member |
But are they actually new cases, or just ones that have been discovered after testing. After all, the new ones had it yesterday, and the day before, it's just that now they are confirmed. Maybe it's a distinction without a difference. | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
Yeah, it's a distinction without a difference. You get it whenever you get it and no one knows... until you're tested and then it becomes a new case. Obviously, it's not counted until it's verified. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Still finding my way |
There's most likely 500,000 people here with the beer flu already and maybe that many times 2 that had it without even knowing and recovered and went back to work. Hell, I had a nasty chest cold a few weeks back that kept me home for two days. Nobody I had contact with got sick. The way they're reporting the test results as "new cases" is very misleading and the low info voters out there believe that means new transmission or that transmissions are accelerating. But then again...wtf do I know. | |||
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| Member |
but the importance is it will show the disease to be 'much less bad' than the hysteria indicates previously -- only highly symptomatic / really sick people were getting tested so naturally the CFR was higher with that population with widespread testing -- we will find a LOT more cases -- but a LOT more lightly / mild / asymptomatic people. that will cause the CFR to drop dramatically and hopefully cancel out this mass closure mantra containing this virus should be targeted and strategic at this point not 'broad brush' creating a Depression in 2020 is not an acceptable response for a virus with a fatality rate so low and which really is most dangerous to a specific subset of patients (basically 65-ish and older) ------------------------------------ Proverbs 27:17 - As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another. | |||
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| Go ahead punk, make my day |
That would be a good course of action to take, in my opinion. | |||
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Member |
Great graphic.
There certainly is. First, there's what we are trying to do now - slow the spread by reducing the number of exposures to infected people. Right now, the estimated "reproduction rate" - the number of people each infected person infects, on average - is estimated to be around 2.5. So a really rough first order model is that when the number of infected people is "small" compared to the total population is that the nth "generation" of sick people has 2.5^n people in it. All the "slow the spread" stuff is to try to make the 2.5 number smaller. If it is exactly 1, the number of sick people stays constant, if it goes below 1, the number of sick people starts to drop. If it is smaller but still over 1, the number of sick people still grows exponentially, but more slowly ) maybe slowly enough not to overwhelm all the hospitals. The other way to reduce that value is by "herd immunity." Let's say we get to a point where 2/3 of the population is immune, either from having already gotten sick and gotten better, or from having gotten a not-yet-developed vaccine. At that point, what happens if we go back to all the same social behaviors that resulted in the 2.5 reproduction factor when a small number of people were sick? Well, on average, an infected person will still expose 2.5 people in a way that would have transmitted the infection before - but 2/3 of those people are now immune and don't get sick again. The reproduction rate now is 2.5 * 1/3 = 0.83 and the spread of the disease dies out. This is what happens with the flu each year. About 40% of the US gets vaccinated, some people have retained some degree of immunity from previous years, and once something like 10% of the population has gotten the year's flu and become immune, enough people are immune that the spread stops. | |||
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Member |
Ok, flame away, but I'm just gonna say it. This whole thing in the way its being advertised and handled is bullshit. Throw up fences and protections around nursing homes and hospitals, quarantine people at home with immune deficiencies, recommend everyone else wash their hands and try not to cough on each other, and lets get everyone else back to work and some sense of normalcy. The South Koreans did it right and they managed to deal with this bug without shutting down the entire country and crippling their economy. Will some people here continue to get sick with this approach? Sure. But the recovery rate is high and symptoms mild for the majority of people, so let's protect those at risk, stop the nonsense, hit this thing head on, and move forward. Oh, and turn your damn TV's off for a while and stop feeding the BS brigade. ----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money |
You're right... and that's probably about what will happen after a couple of weeks shut down. “WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” as Trump said in a late night tweet. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Member |
That's a really good question. Here are my thoughts. I believe COVID-19 is dangerous. I believe people will die. However, the mortality rate is .7%, as stated by Dr. Birx, standing next to President Trump. This is not the 60-65% fatality rate for something like Ebola. Also, people are not bleeding out of their eyes and orfices like they would be with Ebola. I also do not personally know anyone who has been affected by COVID-19. And by affected, I mean anyone that even has it, let alone became seriously ill or died. How many of us on SigForum can say we know someone affected by COVID-19? I could however list dozens (maybe hundreds) of people I know already being affected by the economic impacts. Friends and colleagues that have already been laid off. Or will be laid off soon. People that are worried about how to pay their mortgage, how to keep their families afloat. I was speaking with my sister earlier about the economic impacts and she had the best analogy I have heard. She said our economy is currently like a speeding, out of control freight train. The wheels are starting to lift off the tracks. We are about ready to derail. And if we do not get control immediately, and we do derail, getting the economy going again will be just as hard as it would be to fix the tracks, fix the train, put it back on the tracks and get it back up to speed. It's not that I am completely dismissive of COVID-19. It's that I feel the reaction has caused damage to our economy that is too great. | |||
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| Member |
You do realize all of that is pure speculation by people who are essentially guessing. We haven't even begun to collect and analyze enough data on this bug to even begin to produce anything approaching accurate, fact based, estimates. As has been pointed to throughout this thread, government agencies have been spectacularly wrong on virtually every disease they've weighed in on, so I'm not about to listen to their BS this time around, especially at this point in the "pandemic". And all of this bending or flattening the curve means absolutely nothing without a 'working' vaccine, which we won't have for months (at the earliest). At some point the government will either allow the economy to reopen and people to return to some sense of normalcy, or the country will collapse on itself because things cannot be put on hold indefinitely. ----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter | |||
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| Member |
South Korea has been doing extreme social distancing, aggressively pursues exposure tracking, and has done a TON of testing. On a per-capita basis, South Korea has done 20 times as much testing as we have.  We can certainly catch up on testing rates, but they used tons of testing early on to keep their numbers of infections relatively low. | |||
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| Still finding my way |
We have a little over 500 confirmed cases and 7 total deaths here in CO. More people die each month from dildo accidents (I'm speculating) How many small businesses will be bankrupted over this? | |||
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| Just for the hell of it  |
We can do more tests and making them easier to do will help but right now, last I heard, we are around 1 positive out of ten. Will that person that insisted they be tested today want to be tested again next week when they think they have it again. _____________________________________ Because in the end, you won’t remember the time you spent working in the office or mowing your lawn. Climb that goddamn mountain. Jack Kerouac | |||
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| Gracie Allen is my personal savior! |
Damn, for a second I thought there was a story there. | |||
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| Member |
Again, I don't think the point is how many people have it, but rather, how to protect those most at risk of this or any other virus. From everything I've read, the recovery rate for this virus is very high for all but those with preexisting health conditions. As such, let's protect those at substantial risk, and get everyone else back to work and some sense of normalcy, instead of continuing to follow the lead of the people we would have utter contempt for the majority of the time. ----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
Damn right. The main problem is letting medical experts dictate policy right now. We should be listening to them and using their advices to formulate good policy, but in no way should our leaders be allowing these experts to dictate policy. Experts by definition know their particular fields in depth. However, they rarely think beyond their expertise and the consequences of ignoring everything else. Politicians (which of course are our nation's leaders) have a responsibility to consider all aspects that go into their decisions that can affect millions of lives. Currently we are not doing that; we are sacrificing all for one goal that was put forth by the experts. For 15 days? Ok, I'm in. After all, what choice do I have at this point? Beyond that though, it's time our leaders start doing their damn jobs. I'll say it again, please, God, free us from the dictatorship of public health experts. ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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| Member |
But Balze, these health 'experts' are little different than the climate change 'experts' we belittle and laugh at most of the time. There is 'zero' common sense in play right now with the current policies. Just rampant terror and knee jerk reactions all of which are doing nothing but stoking fear and killing our economy. ----------------------------- Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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