quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
If you are using 1.3acres site, I know that has to be wrong, I am quite sure that more than two people have recovered in my state. Especially because I know of one recovered person in a county that has zero recovered listed.

From what I’ve been able to figure out, they report what county public health tells them. If you scroll down to the list of specific cases, they provide a link to where they got the information.

Our little county shows 114 cases, 1 death, and 87 recovered. Los Angeles county shows 9,197 cases, 300 deaths, and 0 recovered. I suspect the problem is with LA county rather than 1point3acres. According to a friend’s coworker who tested positive, on a positive test in our county, you are told to stay home and self-quarantine and someone from county public health calls you *every* day to check in on you. You are not released from quarantine until you have been symptom free for a while. Presumably, since county public health releases you from quarantine they know you recovered and tally you as such. Apparently, LA county doesn’t have the bandwidth.

quote:

Originally posted by leavemebe:
Here is a good video by an MD in Idaho that explains the various tests (eg. RT-PCR, Antibody (IgM and IgG) and there uses. He also highlights the limitations of the PCR test.

He notes that so far 5% if the tested population has antibodies and about 50% never show any symptoms.

Can't figure out how to embed videos.

Ryan Cole, MD, FCAP


__________________________________________

And this is what we should be putting the screws to the retards in Washington on.

This video and other write ups I've read (many posted here) have noted the following....

1) 50%+ of the people tested never show any symptoms (asymptomatic).
2) 70%+ of those who are tested and show symptoms recover with little to no medical assistance.
3) A huge majority of those who die from the virus are 60+ years old (i.e. most vulnerable).

So why are we shut down? Surely the 'experts' and 'intellectuals' in Washington can come up with a plan to get the US economy restarted and moving while protecting a small minority of the population? This has become little more than political at this point. Every additional day we stay shut down the economy moves closer and closer toward recession and people become more angry (and rightfully so). Dem's of course will blame Trump for the pain people suffer as a result of the shutdown. Of course if Trump reopens the economy on any level, Dem's will blame him personally for every person who dies from that point forward. Kinda personifies the old adage about "damned if you do, damned if you don't." It also personifies the bloodlust the Dem's have for reacquiring power in this country and how little they care about any of us. I would make a suggestion as to what should be done with these Dem's, but I'm sure PARA would not view it favorably, so I'll keep it to myself. I truly do not know how we get out of this, but make no mistake, this isn't about the virus or protecting 'anyone' at this point.

Article from The Wall Street Journal.
=============================================

East Europe Controls Spread More Effectively Than West

Across Western Europe, hospitals overflow with people sickened by the new coronavirus and morgues struggle to keep up with the mounting number of dead. In nations to the east, however, infections have largely been kept under control and governments are starting to loosen lockdowns.

The difference is stark. By Sunday, Spain had lost 350 people per million of its population to Covid-19, Italy 322, Belgium 314, France 202 and Britain 145, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Romania, in contrast, had lost 15 per million, the Czech Republic 12, Poland 5 and Slovakia 0.4.

A big reason for the discrepancy: The poorer countries of Central and Eastern Europe, fearing their relatively weak health-care systems would be overwhelmed by the virus, moved more quickly to enact strict social-distancing rules and restrict movement to contain outbreaks.

Their speed and decisiveness, public-health experts say, were critical for these countries, where populations are older and doctors fewer than in the West and where hospitals aren’t as well equipped for a flood of seriously ill patients.

It also helped that the virus was slower to appear in the region, which receives fewer intercontinental travelers than their hard-hit counterparts.

As the new coronavirus spread, Germans celebrated Carnival, Italians flocked to soccer games and Britons packed concert stadiums. In the U.S., spring breakers partied and filled Gulf Coast beaches well into March. Those events later proved to have had a so-called super-spreader effect, disseminating the virus widely.

Britain didn’t go into full lockdown until March 24, after confirming more than 8,000 cases and losing 422 lives. By contrast, the Czech Republic closed its schools and its borders, shutting down a lucrative tourist industry, on March 12, less than two weeks after its first confirmed case and when it had recorded about 100 known infections. Slovakia declared a state of emergency that same day, six days and 21 cases into its own outbreak. The next day, Poland ordered borders, bars, dine-in restaurants and shopping malls to close, after confirming 17 cases over nine days.

“We were sure our hospitals were not able to withstand the situation,” said Czech Health Minister Adam Vojtěch. “We had to react.”

The day Prague went into lockdown, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told citizens they could continue attending Mass sporting events. Two days earlier, President Trump said, “We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

In many Western countries, policy makers hesitated to impose curbs, out of concern for the economic fallout and because they feared their populations wouldn’t adhere to social-distancing rules for a prolonged period. British government behavioral studies made public last month found that people were unlikely to obey lockdown rules for weeks. The U.K. has been under heavy restrictions since March 23, with no plans announced to lift them.

Countries that went into lockdowns earlier are now moving to restart at least some public life. Health authorities expect the cases to swell again, potentially compelling another round of restrictions.

By Bojan Pancevski in Berlin and Drew Hinshaw in Warsaw, Poland.

LINK

I have not seen a level of paranoia this high since 9/11. That scares me because of the changes we will have.

If we are smart, we will realize we have to rely less on China for our economy and that they are our enemy, not our ally.

Orlando needs to learn to rely less on the tourist dollar as a lot of people are hurting here.

NYU scientists: Largest U.S. study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest factor in New York’s hospitalizations

Doctors at NYU Langone Health center conducted the largest study so far of U.S. hospital admissions for COVID-19, focused on New York City. They found obesity, along with age, was the biggest deciding factor in hospital admissions, which may suggest the role of hyper-inflammatory reactions that can happen in those with the disease.




https://www.zdnet.com/article/...york-critical-cases/

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
NYU scientists: Largest U.S. study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest factor in New York’s hospitalizations

Doctors at NYU Langone Health center conducted the largest study so far of U.S. hospital admissions for COVID-19, focused on New York City. They found obesity, along with age, was the biggest deciding factor in hospital admissions, which may suggest the role of hyper-inflammatory reactions that can happen in those with the disease.

That might also explain why the West is having a harder time with this than Eastern Europe. Maybe.

After all, the West is chock full of...er, prosperous looking individuals, particularly men.

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:
NYU scientists: Largest U.S. study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest factor in New York’s hospitalizations

I wonder what the response from the "Fat shaming" crowd is going to be.

Come to find out - it isn't healthy to be obese. Who would have thunk it?

Dr. Peter Attia podcast

#106 – Amesh Adalja, M.D.: Comparing COVID-19 to past pandemics, preparing for the future, and reasons for optimism 4-13-20

woops.

Why did early models over predict infections and deaths by order of millions? [18:30]

- Some of the earliest predictions from models suggested 200+ million people would get infected and 2-4 million Americans would die

- Those seems to now look like wild over predictions

What contributed to this?

- The models have many assumptions

- Each small adjustment in the assumptions can make a huge impact on the end number

⇒ One example, hospitalization rate

- Hospitalization rate was probably overstated

- There clearly is a severity bias in who gets tested… which leads to a number like 15 to 20% getting admitted to the hospital

- Amesh says the real hospitalization rate is probably closer to 5%

[They were] using the wrong denominator, I think, to come up with what their case fatality ratios are, what their ICU bed needs would be, and what their mechanical ventilation needs would be.

What went wrong with testing and how could we have utilized it more effectively? [25:15]

-The CDC put out guidance that was too restrictive as to who could get tested

Originally that was...

- Only people that had traveled to China in the last 14 days

- Had to have lower respiratory tract symptoms or pneumonia

- We weren’t testing mild cases and we weren’t testing people that hadn’t come from China

A better way to do this would have been...

- This is a respiratory virus and as many overlapping symptoms with common colds and flus

- you should think about this in your patients and we are going to allow testing to be done if you have certain risk factors for this

- And they shouldn’t just be restricted to you having severe disease or having traveled to China

- “That would have changed the way that the general public and clinicians would have thought about this.”

We also had a scarcity of testing and reagents and nasal swabs

AND it was all compounded by bureaucratic hiccups such as the CDC test having to go through FDA emergency use authorization before it could be distributed to the US

Should there be different policies and restrictions for places like New York City compared to less populated and less affected places across the US? [30:15]

Amesh definitely thinks we should be implementing different strategies across the country

There are places that can start to think about

- lessening restrictions

- Less social distancing

- Opening up more businesses

- Opening up schools

Definitely need to start considering opening up medical centers for non-COVID patients: “In places where they’re not inundated because you’re going to get other health consequences that are not captured by the models which are really measurable and will pay for down the road.”

Looking at the active case curves, countries seem to fall broadly into one of four categories now:

- Those that have really brought numbers of current infections down. This includes South Korea of course, but also Austria which is on a definite descending trajectory.

- Those who look like they're about to achieve the same like Germany and Switzerland, though the trend is too recent to be definite.

- Those making their way back out of the disaster zone like Spain and Italy, where the curves of active cases are at least flattening due to a definite descending trend of new infections.

- Those with numbers of active cases still increasing, though the daily numbers of new infections are leveling off or even decreasing. This includes France, the UK and US, which is lucky to have a much lower fatality rate (if also still rising) and higher treatment capacities than the first two. Incidentally, as the Swiss seem to have gotten somewhat of a handle on things, the US is my newest watchcase.

Over here, the restrictions agreed between the federal and state governments (with some variations among the latter) three weeks ago are set to expire next Sunday. So far people have widely pulled along, and there is still popular majority support. At the same time however there is also increasing restlessness, particularly among the younger; cellphone data shows that after a sharp drop in mobility, it's now starting to pick up again, probably not least due to the nice warmer weather.

It has been beautiful on the Easter weekend, and when I went over to the place of my brother #2 yesterday for handover of the gifts my mother sent him, the parks were regularly busy even though playgrounds were blocked off. On his block with mostly young families, everybody was outside playing with the kids, the normal family visits obviously cancelled. People kept their distance queuing at the icecream shop, but otherwise that was rather illusory.

The German National Academy of Sciences just published 19 pages of suggestions how to proceed for the governments when they deliberate at the end of this week, based upon health, economic, legal and psychological considerations. They stress masks and testing; smartphone tracking apps to be used on a voluntary basis (some pols want to make them mandatory).

Schools to reopen as quickly as possible, but with limited classes and class sizes, starting with the higher grades of elementary schools, where kids can be expected to wear facemasks rather carefully. Senior high schools and universities to stay on remote learning the longest. Daycare to remain on skeleton services until summer recess.

If everybody carries a mask to wear when social distancing isn't realistic, shops, restaurants and public offices could be reopened, though work from home should continue as much as possible and segregated shifts be increased. Public transport might be used more again with alternate seat rows blocked. Public events to be re-permitted by degrees, theaters before rock concerts.

Tax breaks to stimulate an economic rebound, including abolition of the "solidarity contribution" introduced to pay for the rebuilding of East Germany for everybody including top income (currently planned only for the lower 90 percent of taxpayers). Otherwise don't change too much: no relaxing of environmental regulations as some have demanded, but no common European "Corona bonds" either. Let's see how much of those recommendations we'll see taken up how quickly.

quote:

Originally posted by f2:
Dr. Peter Attia podcast
Should there be different policies and restrictions for places like New York City compared to less populated and less affected places across the US?

One of the things that strikes me most forcefully and commonly in discussions here and elsewhere is how many people have extremely parochial and naïve views of the world. I am constantly reminded of the quotation from Caesar and Cleopatra by George Bernard Shaw, “Caesar: Pardon him, Theodotus. He is a barbarian and thinks the customs of his tribe and island are the laws of nature.”

If we live and work in one small place or are like the mayor of a city who has responsibility for something like that, then we can assume that things are going to be pretty much the same throughout the area. But people who have responsibility for the entire nation or even a state should have broader visions and understanding that not everything is the same everywhere. One first responder noted that the comments by Colorado’s governor about his lockdown order indicated that he was evidently thinking only about the Denver metropolitan area. Travel even a relatively few miles away, though, and the population density and the goods and services available change dramatically.

As a stark demonstration of my own naivety, I used to believe that most people who made it to the upper tiers of political authority must be at least of a little higher than average perception and intelligence. I no longer believe that.

The powers that be in Osceola County, FL (just south of Orlando) have decreed that as of today, people must wear face coverings in public.

Failure to comply can be punished by a five hundred dollar fine or sixty days in jail.

I wonder whether they practice "social distancing" in jail.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
As a stark demonstration of my own naivety, I used to believe that most people who made it to the upper tiers of political authority must be at least of a little higher than average perception and intelligence. I no longer believe that.

No, they aren't, but they believe they are. That's part of what makes them such a pox on society.

story on Bing this morning abut how George 'stuffingenvelopes' Stephanopolous has tested 'positive'

gee, thats a real shame...

almost makes me feel bad for the virus

Even though I think it deserves a thread of it's own I will post it here but I digress.

Anyone else's fed-up-O-meter starting to peg up yet?

For me tired of the "social distancing" bullshit.
At least Lowes and HD are open but the Plexiglas barriers, the "wait here" squares painted everywhere and every idiot wearing masks is now beyond just laughable.
Can't do anything, can't go anywhere, can't make any money.
AND
It's time for my investment portfolio to get back to normal where it was.
It's time to end it!

Mine's been in the 'red' for a while now...

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:
Even though I think it deserves a thread of it's own I will post it here but I digress.

Anyone else's fed-up-O-meter starting to peg up yet?

For me tired of the "social distancing" bullshit.
At least Lowes and HD are open but the Plexiglas barriers, the "wait here" squares painted everywhere and every idiot wearing masks is now beyond just laughable.
Can't do anything, can't go anywhere, can't make any money.
AND
It's time for my investment portfolio to get back to normal where it was.
It's time to end it!

Wife was saying she wondered how long it would be to get back to normal and this was basically my response, "when folks get tired of being told to stay home, not go to church, no work, no play, then comes government and police overstretching their boundary then the revolt will start."

I'm not talking pitch forks, flames and firearms, but the influx of complaints to the government officials is what its going to take, overwhelming phone calls, because media wants this to continue and social media influences politicians who are afraid of it..

Or everyone will just start ignoring it and go back to work, basically telling governments to fuck off, we're done...

200 cops, a million people, numbers don't favor the county council of anytown

I've been fed up since the beginning of March.

quote:

Originally posted by smschulz:
Even though I think it deserves a thread of it's own I will post it here but I digress.

Anyone else's fed-up-O-meter starting to peg up yet?

For me tired of the "social distancing" bullshit.

Yes, but not for that reason. I get the social distancing thing. And, to me, it makes sense as a precaution. What's beginning to wear on me is our governor shutting-down everything she deems "non-essential," even to the point of prohibiting stores from selling things that are not on the "essential" list, even though they may sell things that are.

Here's where it gets really stupid: Private landscaping and lawn businesses are prohibited from operating. Yet landscape supply companies are still open--still classified as "essential." Why? Because they supply to governmental operations. So governmental lawn and landscaping crews can operate, but private companies can not?

Never mind shutting down all the lawn and garden centers may devastate many such businesses and the small, independent farmers that supply them. Products such as annuals need to get in the ground soon, or they can throw them away.

There are other equally-nonsensical things of a similar nature. That's the stuff that's beginning to wear on my patience.

Told my wife "Soon I think we're going to need to go for a walk, holding hands. Just to provoke some busy-body into calling the cops on us for not observing ``social distancing.``. I can see the conversation, now: "Wait. We're not allowed to hold the hand of the person with whom we sleep?!?!"

Only thing that stops me is I figure the cops have enough on their plates w/o me messin' with 'em.

I'm not seeing any exponential growth in case discovered here in Florida:



Other graphs seem to show hospitalizations on a statewide level trending downward for the last week and also the hot spots of Miami-Dade, Browsed, Palm Beach and Orange counties as well. The Projected death toll total continues downward as well and is now umder 4,000.