quote:

Originally posted by Patriot:
So if you get a virus, but die of a heart attack that was brought on by weakness from the virus, they "may" list the virus as the cause even though the heart attack got you.

'Or', more likely, if you die of a heart attack and tested positive for Covid they'll simply follow the government's mandate that you died of Covid (see Birx comments). I've reached the point where I truly believe we are being lied to and scammed, whether by accident due to the volume and ever changing nature of the data, or by people who have so completely screwed up in calling and reacting this bug that they're looking for cover and any means of CYA they can find at this point. Regardless which it is, I'm totally over it.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
comments about the death predictions from IHME

while the mean predictions for total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been decreasing, the means have stayed within the band of former predictions

1 Apr 93,765 mean w range 41,399 to 177,381

5 Apr 81,766 mean w range 49,431 to 136,401

8 Apr 60,415 mean w range 31,224 to 126,703

Some of the input parameters have estimated means that change as more real data comes in and associated variances that force a range of predicted values.

We can be glad the high estimates are coming down and not going up.

Interestingly, the 90,000+ estimate was actually a brief bump, for a few days before that the estimate was in the low 80s.

And it's also still worth pointing out that the IHME estimate isn't "how many people die this year," it's "how many people die through August, assuming everyone stays inside and we get this completely under control."

The next member in this thread to tell another member to get fucked gets a 30 day suspension. I've asked you guys several times, and now I'm telling you- cut it out or you're going to lose your voice in this thread for a month.

Stay on topic. Discuss this matter politely. Disagree politely, and acknowledge the fact that some of you are just going to have to agree to disagree. Telling another member to fuck off does not make you right.

On a brighter note, here's a "classical interlude" from Renee Fleming and Evgeny Kissin:



Link to original video: https://youtu.be/MoFQ92rZT3o

Meet the former NYT reporter who is challenging the coronavirus narrative

As daily life across America is upended by the coronavirus crisis -- with mass business closures plunging the economy into freefall -- one former New York Times reporter is sounding the alarm about what he believes are flawed models dictating the aggressive strategy.

Alex Berenson has been analyzing the data on the crisis on a daily basis for weeks and has come to the conclusion that the strategy of shutting down entire sectors of the economy is based on modeling that doesn’t line up with the realities of the virus.

"The response we have taken has caused enormous societal devastation, I don't think that's too strong a word," he told Fox News in an interview Thursday.

Berenson is a former reporter who worked for the Times from 1999 to 2010 primarily covering the pharmaceutical industry. He recently came to prominence again with a book, “Tell Your Children The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness, and Violence,” which challenged prevailing narratives on marijuana.

'The response we have taken has caused enormous societal devastation.'

— Alex Berenson
In the face of a broadening consensus on both the left and the libertarian right that sees marijuana as mostly healthy and even a positive in some circumstances, Berenson argued that the evidence instead shows a link between the drug and serious mental illness and an epidemic of violence.

Now he’s turned to challenging the narratives on the response to the coronavirus. What Berenson is promoting isn’t coronavirus denialism, or conspiracy theories about plots to curb liberties. Instead what Berenson is claiming is simple: the models guiding the response were wrong and that it is becoming clearer by the day.

"In February I was worried about the virus. By mid-March I was more scared about the economy. But now I’m starting to get genuinely nervous," he tweeted this week. "This isn’t complicated. The models don’t work. The hospitals are empty. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?"

Hospitals, of course, are not empty in places like hard-hit New York City, and tales are widespread of overburdened doctors and emergency rooms. Berenson acknowledged as much in the interview Thursday.

Concerns that this virus is significantly more contagious and deadly than any ordinary flu strain are what's driving the current government approach, in America and around the world. Perhaps due in part to more testing, America reports the highest number of cases in the world right now, with more than 430,000 cases and nearly 15,000 deaths. Symptoms vary widely, with some patients reporting only minor discomfort yet others dealing with crushing physical pain and struggling to breathe, forced to go on ventilators.

But Berenson is taking a broader look. He initially challenged the model put forward by the Imperial College in London, when one of the authors of the models appeared to significantly walk back projections that the U.K. would see 500,000 people killed by the disease to closer to 20,000 -- although the author later said that the 500,000 prediction was without social distancing measures, and 20,000 was with them in place. That model is being used to advise the U.K. government on its strategy for the virus.

“That was March 22 or 23, and ever since then I’ve been paying incredibly close attention to the modeling and trying to figure out whether it lines up with what we’re seeing in reality -- and the answer is it hasn’t lined up at all," he said.

Recently he’s been focusing on discrepancies within the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model. That model has come under renewed scrutiny as it has revised its metrics multiple times. It once predicted more than 90,000 deaths by August but recently issued a new estimate that has the figure closer to 60,000. Government officials say it's a model that's moving with what the country is doing.

"We believe that our health care delivery system in the United States is quite extraordinary," Dr. Deborah Birx said at a White House press briefing on Wednesday. "I know many of you are watching the Act Now model and the IHME model— and they have consistently decreased the number, the mortality from over almost 90,000 or 86,000, down to 81,000 and now down to 61,000. That is modeled on what America is doing. That’s what’s happening."

Dr. Anthony Fauci said that the indicators are that social distancing efforts are working: "Because remember, what you do with data will always outstrip a model. You redo your models, depending upon your data, and our data is telling us that mitigation is working."

But Berenson argues that those models have social distancing and other measures baked into them. As for further proof, he says that outside of places like New York there has not been a national health crisis that was predicted -- nor are there signs that the level of lockdown in various states has made a difference.

“Aside from New York, nationally there’s been no health system crisis. In fact, to be truly correct there has been a health system crisis, but the crisis is that the hospitals are empty,” he said. “This is true in Florida where the lockdown was late, this is true in South Carolina where the lockdown was early, it's true in Oklahoma where there is no statewide lockdown. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between the lockdown and whether or not the epidemic has spread wide and fast.”

He has also argued, in lengthy Twitter threads, that the drop in cases seen in various states has come before lockdowns would have had an impact -- since it takes a few weeks for social distancing measures to take effect due to the window between infection and symptoms.

Berenson blames the models for a response that has effectively shut down large sectors of the economy and is causing significant financial harm to Americans. On Thursday it was announced that the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits swelled to 6.6 million last week, surging for the third consecutive week. Congress has sought to alleviate the pain by boosting those jobless benefits.

His is a view that has seen some sympathy from President Trump, who has spoken about the "cure being worse than the problem" and has indicated that he is keen to end the strict measures as soon as is possible -- saying Wednesday he wants to re-open the economy with a "big bang."

Berenson says the correct response in the initial days of the crisis would not have been to do nothing, but instead to adopt a more measured and targeted approach.

“There was incredible pressure to do something ... so these lockdowns all cascaded, every governor tried to outdo the next. And no one stopped and said ‘OK what about Japan, they don't seem to have a terrible epidemic, they wear masks, maybe we should wear masks,” he said.

He said other measures such as protecting individuals particularly at risk, and even things such as banning large gatherings such as concerts and sporting events could have been appropriate. But now he fears it may be too late for officials to say they overreacted.

“Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now -- the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'” he says.

Berenson is not a known partisan. His Twitter feed and other works contain few references to specific politicians, and there’s no indication that he’s in this to bash or defend Trump or either political party. But he noted that, like with his conclusions on marijuana, there has been a distinct lack of interest from the left.

“I went to Yale and I worked for the New York Times, the people on the left hold themselves out as being science-driven, as being smarter, they think they're smarter but they won’t look at facts that won’t meet their narratives,” he said.

He voiced frustration that these arguments have been ignored by a lot of mainstream outlets.

“That is frustrating for me ... but everyone needs to hear this counterargument, whether or not it's right, you need to hear it because the damage we are doing to ourselves right now is so enormous.”

Adam Shaw is a reporter covering U.S. and European politics for Fox News.. He can be reached here.

https://www.foxnews.com/politi...oronavirus-narrative

Boris Johnson improving

I have no doubt that this news will depress the ever-lovin' shit out of European leftists.

quote:

Originally posted by pulicords:
...
Let's get real people! Most of us have medical issues that range from very minor and/or temporary to serious and chronic, but not immediately life threatening. This virus can kill those without any underlying illness and does so frequently, but the fact that those with other medical issues does not diminish the fact that COVID-19 killed them. It shouldn't be a political issue and I don't believe most MDs consider it one. The MDs I'm personally friends with sure don't look at it politically and when the treat patients or report deaths, they do what they've always done: Recognized and reported as their training and best judgment dictated according to the specifics of the case.

Puli, you are wasting your breath, it's settled science. Anyone who dies with coranavirus was seconds away from death anyways, the fact that they died while infected with a deadly disease has nothing to do with their death. The young healthy people that are dying are actually not even healthy, they were on deaths doorstep already their doctors were just to stupid to figure it out.

The Illuminati has conspired with doctors across the country and world to cover it all up. It's actually the media and Democratic party sneaking in and snuffing the people out with their pillows.

Excellent news about Boris.

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:
Just when you thought this thread couldn't get any Wilder.....

Back around page 200 I got my ass handed to me when I called Dr. Fauci deep state. Here is some more evidence that you can deny.

https://theconservativetreehou...hite-house-briefing/

FTA:

Dr. Anthony Fauci did it again. The first time Fauci was noted signaling to his allies in media was when he signaled to ABC’s Jonathan Karl after an antagonistic exchange with President Trump at a task force briefing [SEE HERE].

Today, another briefing, and CNN’s Jim Acosta had a similar antagonistic exchange with President Trump. Once again Dr. Fauci hangs back to give Acosta a similar signal. Subtle like a brick through a window. WATCH:

It’s weird. Dr. Fauci doesn’t make his little signals to any other media in the briefings other than those who seem to be purposefully antagonistic to the efforts of the administration?

That great news!

And I hope there is a lot of data published when the dust settles with the contributing co-morbidities/ complications of the COVID-19 patients that didnt survive, along with age, gender, lifestyle issues...etc.

These data would go a long way toward calming people during future outbreaks, and allowing the highest risk to protect themselves.

Also needed is data on how many people were exposed and have antibodies to the virus but never got sick. It could turn out that the true "death rate" is much lower than currently estimated. How many people get exposed to the flu but dont get sick? A whole lot, as many have acquired immunity over the years through past exposure. This is a novel virus so no one has been able to acquire immunity.

I think (hope) that once these data come out the whole "sky is falling" house of cards will come tumbling down, and in a few years COVID-19 will treated like just be another seasonal flu-like illness.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Boris Johnson improving

I have no doubt that this news will depress the ever-lovin' shit out of European leftists.

quote:

Originally posted by doublesharp:
Back around page 200 I got my ass handed to me when I called Dr. Fauci deep state. Here is some more evidence that you can deny.

Stow that attitude. We don't need it.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:


Puli, you are wasting your breath, it's settled science. Anyone who dies with coranavirus was seconds away from death anyways, the fact that they died while infected with a deadly disease has nothing to do with their death. The young healthy people that are dying are actually not even healthy, they were on deaths doorstep already their doctors were just to stupid to figure it out.

The Illuminati has conspired with doctors across the country and world to cover it all up. It's actually the media and Democratic party sneaking in and snuffing the people out with their pillows.

The fact is, 39 people dead in Oregon, with a median age of 79.5 years old. Put that in your know-it-all pipe and smoke it!

This thread is pretty entertaining. I don't think a consensus is going to be possible as long as our broken media is hell bent on promoting hysteria.

quote:

The fact is, 39 people dead in Oregon, with a median age of 79.5 years old. Put that in your know-it-all pipe and smoke it!

Excellent argument, I'm swayed. I wasn't even taking to you.

Have a wonderful day.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

quote:

The fact is, 39 people dead in Oregon, with a median age of 79.5 years old. Put that in your know-it-all pipe and smoke it!

Excellent argument, I'm swayed. I wasn't even taking to you.

Have a wonderful day.

Lol, but your argument is let's keep everyone locked down because "young healthy" people are dying, which is simply not fact in a lot of places. And in your mind, anyone who questions it is a conspiracy theorist.

quote:

Originally posted by bdylan:
This thread is pretty entertaining. I don't think a consensus is going to be possible as long as our broken media is hell bent on promoting hysteria.

Breaking News!

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
Governor of Minnesota extended the stay at home order three more days to May 4th.

This is exactly what I'm afraid of—some idiot governor like this starts extending the end date and one by one all the rest of the idiots will follow suit. Pritzker just said that he doesn't see any large events taking place until at least a vaccine is found.

Got this from USAA today. Nice to see them helping out where they can.