quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

President Trump is the one making decisions based on advice from Fauci and others, as we elected him to do.

Did I say anything to the contrary? Read my post again. Obviously President Trump won't keep the economy turned off until the end of next year.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Originally posted by 229DAK:

quote:

Originally posted by tleo205:
Fauci is...just a career political appointee hack.

Not taking any sides here, but he's not a political appointee.

This is a political appointment:
Fauci is a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force established in late January 2020, under President Trump, to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.
The White House Coronavirus Task Force is a United States Department of State task force that "coordinates and oversees the Administration's efforts to monitor, prevent, contain, and mitigate the spread" of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).[1] It was established on January 29, 2020.

The Task Force is chaired by U.S. Vice President Mike Pence.

Being a "member" of this task force does not make it a political appointment. He is employed by the National Institutes of Health as their Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The closest thing would be Dr. Collins (Fauci's boss), the NIH Director and a political appointee.

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
OK, all the fucks have been passed around. Let us now put the fucks away for a bit, shall we?

I love you sometimes.

(no homo)

The exchange and then Para's reply had me dying

(of laughter, Not covid19. To clarify)

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
Just watched her video on Twitter. She is more than pissed. If true and I have no reason to doubt Ms. Owens and she seems very confident in her facts Lamont needs to be strung up and quartered. The parents need to sue him into oblivion. I doubt this will get picked up by the media but knowing Ms. Owens she is going to push this right up Lamont's ass regardless if the media wants to pick it up or not.

And I have no doubt that's not the only death falsely attributed to the Wuhan.

That is much of what she's referring to. I've said this about these celebrity deaths. All the information is they died from "complications of covid 19" nothing else is said. Omission of other related information and facts is just another form of lying. This case it sounds like Lamont purposely introduced covid into it when it never existed. When you can't shape the narrative by omission you have to create the narrative out of thin air. Despicable.

quote:

Politicians are making monumental questionable decisions with questionable data.

This is true, and it appears the media and social media are driving the decisions, influencing politicians with fear such as the continued attacks on FL Governor Desantis for not closing down the state with a SAH order.

He finally caved, although much of our virus problems stem from people with the virus fleeing New York and other hot spots.

I said at the beginning the most dangerous thing wasn't COVID-19, even if it killed a million people, it's no where near as bad for the population as what it will be used for to kill off freedoms, upgrade police and government powers in the future.

The IHME model will get a good test over the next week and the weeks that follow.

I emailed IHME and they sent links to the data points that make up their plots.

IHME has a projected plot of deaths per day for NY (and for all the states).

By summing the projected deaths per day, you can build their projection for total deaths in NY as a function of time.

Right now their mean estimate is 16,261 NY total deaths by 12 May.

Their low estimate is 9722 NY deaths
Their high estimate is 21,006 deaths

The model has a range of possible outcomes and they will adjust their projection as real data comes in. (so the above numbers will likely change)

IHME projects there will be about 8300 NY deaths by 10 April. ( one week away )

with a low estimate for 10 Apr of 6600 NY deaths
and a high estimate for 10 Apr of 9,500 NY deaths

The way models get shaken out is to compare to real data sets. We are entering the phase where data for the U.S. is (unfortunately)coming in.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

President Trump is the one making decisions based on advice from Fauci and others, as we elected him to do.

Did I say anything to the contrary? Read my post again. Obviously President Trump won't keep the economy turned off until the end of next year.

Let that sink in, why? What are you trying to say? If you trust Trump and believe he is ultimately calling the shots what difference does it make what some people say about Fauci letting the economy open back up, or if he was elected or appointed, etc.... Who gives a shit? If he is the smartest guy in the room on thr subject then let him talk. He is an advisor on one specific aspect of the crisis. Of course he is going to say shut it all down as long as it takes, he only views the crisis through the lens of mitigating spread and preventing death. It's up to Trump to balance that advice with the economic and political ramifications. Fauci is in his lane, and not making any final decisions, what's the point in dragging him for not being who he doesn't need to be?

Read an interesting slant on the toilet paper shortage.

The summery is that with all of us at home the toilet paper consumption has gone up an estimated 40% accordingly, the consumption at work has dropped significantly.

Toilet paper has two markets, business and home. You’ve no doubt noticed the difference between toilet paper at home and at work. Commercial toilet paper production can’t just shift over. One example are those huge rolls you encounter in stalls. The paper used is also different.

Supposedly this accounts for much of the toilet paper shortage. We’re using 40% more at home.

“ Around the world, in countries afflicted with the coronavirus, stores are sold out of toilet paper. There have been shortages in Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. And we all know who to blame: hoarders and panic-buyers.
Well, not so fast.
Story after story explains the toilet paper outages as a sort of fluke of consumer irrationality. Unlike hand sanitizer, N95 masks, or hospital ventilators, they note, toilet paper serves no special function in a pandemic. Toilet paper manufacturers are cranking out the same supply as always. And it’s not like people are using the bathroom more often, right?
U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar summed up the paradox in a March 13 New York Times story: “Toilet paper is not an effective way to prevent getting the coronavirus, but they’re selling out.” The president of a paper manufacturer offered the consensus explanation: “You are not using more of it. You are just filling up your closet with it.”
Faced with this mystifying phenomenon, media outlets have turned to psychologists to explain why people are cramming their shelves with a household good that has nothing to do with the pandemic. Read the coverage and you’ll encounter all sorts of fascinating concepts, from “zero risk bias” to “anticipatory anxiety.” It’s “driven by fear” and a “herd mentality,” the BBC scolded. The libertarian Mises Institute took the opportunity to blame anti-gouging laws. The Atlantic published a short documentary harking back to the great toilet paper scare of 1973, which was driven by misinformation.
Most outlets agreed that the spike in demand would be short-lived, subsiding as soon as the hoarders were satiated.
No doubt there’s been some panic-buying, particularly once photos of empty store shelves began circulating on social media. There have also been a handful of documented cases of true hoarding. But you don’t need to assume that most consumers are greedy or irrational to understand how coronavirus would spur a surge in demand. And you can stop wondering where in the world people are storing all that Quilted Northern.
There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.
If you’re looking for where all the toilet paper went, forget about people’s attics or hall closets. Think instead of all the toilet paper that normally goes to the commercial market — those office buildings, college campuses, Starbucks, and airports that are now either mostly empty or closed. That’s the toilet paper that’s suddenly going unused.
So why can’t we just send that toilet paper to Safeway or CVS? That’s where supply chains and distribution channels come in.
Not only is it not the same product, but it often doesn’t come from the same mills.
Talk to anyone in the industry, and they’ll tell you the toilet paper made for the commercial market is a fundamentally different product from the toilet paper you buy in the store. It comes in huge rolls, too big to fit on most home dispensers. The paper itself is thinner and more utilitarian. It comes individually wrapped and is shipped on huge pallets, rather than in brightly branded packs of six or 12.
“Not only is it not the same product, but it often doesn’t come from the same mills,” added Jim Luke, a professor of economics at Lansing Community College, who once worked as head of planning for a wholesale paper distributor. “So for instance, Procter & Gamble [which owns Charmin] is huge in the retail consumer market. But it doesn’t play in the institutional market at all.”
Georgia-Pacific, which sells to both markets, told me its commercial products also use more recycled fiber, while the retail sheets for its consumer brands Angel Soft and Quilted Northern are typically 100% virgin fiber. Eric Abercrombie, a spokesman for the company, said it has seen demand rise on the retail side, while it expects a decline in the “away-from-home activity” that drives its business-to-business sales.
In theory, some of the mills that make commercial toilet paper could try to redirect some of that supply to the consumer market. People desperate for toilet paper probably wouldn’t turn up their noses at it. But the industry can’t just flip a switch. Shifting to retail channels would require new relationships and contracts between suppliers, distributors, and stores; different formats for packaging and shipping; new trucking routes — all for a bulky product with lean profit margins.
Because toilet paper is high volume but low value, the industry runs on extreme efficiency, with mills built to work at full capacity around the clock even in normal times. That works only because demand is typically so steady. If toilet paper manufacturers spend a bunch of money now to refocus on the retail channel, they’ll face the same problem in reverse once people head back to work again.“
https://marker.medium.com/what...hortage-c812e1358fe0

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

President Trump is the one making decisions based on advice from Fauci and others, as we elected him to do.

Did I say anything to the contrary? Read my post again. Obviously President Trump won't keep the economy turned off until the end of next year.

Let that sink in, why? What are you trying to say?

What I'm saying is that there are a lot of people--a lot of people--who believe that Fauci is the one making the shots or otherwise should be the one making the shots. If Trump even dares goes against the advice of these scientific dictators, he is excoriated from all sides. I think that has clearly had some influence on the President.

^^^ I agree with Alan on this. The President will perceived to be against the "expert".

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
NY Cuomo is taking all ventilators around the state not being used for NYC. They'll be returned when not needed or the hospital / entity compensated for it.

Are there, ah, no cases of COVID in New York outside of New York City?

sdy, thanks for the info on IHME model.

You can look at their state-by-state projections. Interesting how much their model differs from what we are hearing from Gov. Handsome. IHME says California will have enough ICU beds and probably enough ventilators when resource use peaks 4/26.
NY and NJ on the other hand--again, per their model--will be way short.
Those still calling for a nationwide lockdown need to look at the extremely wide variation in state-by-state actual and projected cases and deaths. Most states outside of the Northeast and Midwest where there are large cities will do pretty well, and IMO a national shutdown would only do harm with very little or no gain.

quote:

Originally posted by sjtill:
sdy, thanks for the info on IHME model.

You can look at their state-by-state projections. Interesting how much their model differs from what we are hearing from Gov. Handsome. IHME says California will have enough ICU beds and probably enough ventilators when resource use peaks 4/26.
NY and NJ on the other hand--again, per their model--will be way short.
Those still calling for a nationwide lockdown need to look at the extremely wide variation in state-by-state actual and projected cases and deaths. Most states outside of the Northeast and Midwest where there are large cities will do pretty well, and IMO a national shutdown would only do harm with very little or no gain.

If you're going to base that decision on the model, it's important to recognize that the IHME model is based on the entire country taking aggressive social distancing measures that continue through the entire modeled period (currently, until August 4).

Presumably, without social distancing measures in effect, many more people would become infected.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

quote:

Does your model show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing through the end of the modeled period (August 4, 2020). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates.

Fauci's job is to advise....not make policy decisions yet Fauci seems to be in fact, the one running things and not the President. Trump needs to muzzle him and make it clear that he, and not Fauci will be the one to decide on easing restrictions and when. It is abundantly clear that this can not drag out the way Fauci seems to clearly want.

quote:

Originally posted by V-Tail:
I noticed a distinct change in attitude on the road yesterday (April 2, 2020).

Up until then, most drivers in this area had been courteous, more so than normal.

Yesterday, in light traffic, many drivers started exhibiting "fuck you" behavior, driving as fast as twice the posted speed limit (70 mph, estimated, in a 35 mph zone), moving to the right shoulder to pass multiple vehicles and then cutting back into line, etc. Interestingly, most of these jerks were driving fairly new, expensive vehicles.

No police presence noticed on the roads.

I hope that we are not going to see a significant increase in traffic injuries -- just what we do NOT need right now, to increase the load on ambulance services and hospitals.

vtail, I posted about this days ago (maybe a week), yeah it's going on so be prepared when you drive. The herd mind is easily panicked. I'd like to know where the fuck they are going so fast. I mean are you speeding like hell to get your sandwich making supplies at the grocery store? Here light hits green and they are full throttle, pedal to the floor. Highways people are driving way faster than normal and they don't have the skill set to do so. Also people on phones while driving is way worse than normal. Yesterday, a guy was driving a concrete truck, big fucking truck. Swerving so he could get the latest update. Another person was in a lifted bro'd out F150 with wheels/tires that were stuck out as wide as the lane itself. Guy was all over that phone and drifting lanes, right next to me. Watch your 6. As this goes on and the bird sized brains can't deal, they'll act out. And be careful giving corrections (honking your horn) as they will likely retaliate. Switch lanes, slow down, exit.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Civil liberties just right out the window.

Meanwhile in Delaware, governor Carney is now giving troopers the authority to pull over out-of-state drivers for the simple crime of just having a non-Delaware tag.

_____________________________________

The I-95 runs through Delaware State. Is the Governor closing the I-95 to interstate traffic?

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

President Trump is the one making decisions based on advice from Fauci and others, as we elected him to do.

Did I say anything to the contrary? Read my post again. Obviously President Trump won't keep the economy turned off until the end of next year.

Let that sink in, why? What are you trying to say?

What I'm saying is that there are a lot of people--a lot of people--who believe that Fauci is the one making the shots or otherwise should be the one making the shots. If Trump even dares goes against the advice of these scientific dictators, he is excoriated from all sides. I think that has clearly had some influence on the President.

And that is different from every other day of his Presidency how, exactly? He has been excoriated from both sides of the isle for everything from eating fried chicken with a fork to being the devil himself. It would not make a bit of difference if he discovered the vaccine himself in the Whitehouse basement and gave it to the world for free. He would still be excoriated by the media, the dems and the RINOs as he has been every single day since before his inauguration. He soldiers on, doing his job and thumbing his nose at all those assholes both Den and RINO.

All he has had is those of us who support him. Questioning his judgement, and that of his advisors, in the most important issue of his Presidency is no different than those dems and RINOs. If he wanted Fauci muzzled, he would muzzle him. He clearly wants Fauci out front with the worst case info or he would not be out there, period. Have some freaking faith.

quote:

Originally posted by Cassandra:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Civil liberties just right out the window.

Meanwhile in Delaware, governor Carney is now giving troopers the authority to pull over out-of-state drivers for the simple crime of just having a non-Delaware tag.

_____________________________________

The I-95 runs through Delaware State. Is the Governor closing the I-95 to interstate traffic?

No. The interstate is exempt from his order

Southwest flew 56 planes on Monday that did not have a single passenger on them.

https://www.bizjournals.com/da...ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

What does it cost to fly a 737 on a 1,500 mile route? I cannot even begin to imagine the amount of money they must be losing.

quote:

Originally posted by V-Tail:
I noticed a distinct change in attitude on the road yesterday (April 2, 2020).

Yesterday, in light traffic, many drivers started exhibiting "fuck you" behavior, driving as fast as twice the posted speed limit (70 mph, estimated, in a 35 mph zone), moving to the right shoulder to pass multiple vehicles and then cutting back into line, etc. Interestingly, most of these jerks were driving fairly new, expensive vehicles.

No police presence noticed on the roads.

One of the main stories I saw the news this morning was Lt. Kim Montes of the FHP addressing this issue and stating how the troopers would be out and they would be writing tickets.