quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
No doctor, but anything over 1% CFR with the rates of infection don't add up to a rosey picture.

Oh, we know you'll tell us all about it...

Maybe if you start online courses, you'll be a MD by the time we are all 'allowed' to leave our homes.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/mal...g-stay-at-home-order

Sounds ludicrous...Im thinking if he had complied initially he wouldn't have gotten arrested but still...Kalifornistan.

Does CA not have an exception for solitary health-related exercise? Are they arresting people for running, biking, or going for walks?

There is not enough credible information available anywhere to form a reasonable opinion on this whole Wuhan mess. Anything from the media is suspect, they are a bunch of clickbait whores. Anything from the politicians or beuracrats is just as likely to be bullshit. Social media, including this little corner of it just repeats the same contradictory information and provides a place for ignorant fucks like us to feel like our opinion matters.

Now for my opinion that is based on what little if any credible information and is held by me, an ignorant fuck. Unless you are willing to live like an absolute hermit you have to figure the chances are good that you will get the Rona. The chances of an effective vaccine or cure in the next 12 months is slim. If you where lucky and got it early there was ICU room for you if you needed it, now not so much, so if you get it bad you are pretty much already on your own (unless the media is lying about all the ventilators being in use). The whole flatten the curve only works as long as the critical cases requiring Care are less than the availible capacity, after that point anyone that needs critical care is waiting for a patient who is getting that care now to die or recover, or for additional capacity to be generated. I see social distancing as the new social norm. We either develop better habits and get back to a more normal operation (and accept the sickness and death), or we allow our civil liberties to be further trampled and watch our way of life crumble (all the while still facing the sickness and death). If we allow our liberty to be taken over the slim chance of an early death, we did not deserve the liberty in the first place.

I've seen reports of the death rate on ventilator patients that vary from 25 to 75 %.

And that even those that survive ventilator frequently have lung damage.

But it would be good to get a number that represents the big picture

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
I find it interesting that two pages back f2 posted about a possible vaccine breakthrough from Pitt School of Medicine. It could be delivered through the skin on a small patch therefore making it easy to produce and distribute. No one cared to comment on it.

The scientists at Pitt were ahead of the curve because they had been studying previous coronavirus outbreaks so they were already on the ground running when this one came along. Sure it's not going to be available tomorrow or next week but none the less some damn good news.

But no one apparently wants to bother commenting on it and let the thought that maybe the sun is rising instead of setting creep into their mind. Nope lets just keep crunching numbers and projections, graphs and charts that are just bad, bad ,bad and worse.

People are saying this is war. War is as much if not more psychological than it is anything else.
And if this is war we've lost the psychological battle 300 plus pages ago in this thread.

There are faces we have never seen on the news and names we have never heard of that are going to come forward with a solution to this that will allow us to get back to some semblance of a normal life. The truth is out there.

There are dozens of groups, if not hundreds, around the world working on vaccines. There are news stories constantly about why this one or that one is especially promising.

Here's one from late February about an Israeli group that thought they could adapt their avian coronavirus vaccine research to this disease and have a vaccine ready in weeks.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/...coronavirus-vaccine/

That group is hoping to start human testing by June 1.

A vaccine will be developed eventually. Sooner rather than later, I hope. But until a vaccine is actually in human trials, articles like this are pretty much fluff. Even then, there's no guarantee that any given vaccine will actually prove effective and safe in human trials.

Article from The Wall Street Journal science section.
====================================================

“Coronavirus Seems to Be Infecting and Killing More Men Than Women”

More infected men than women seem to be dying from the new coronavirus, according to data from countries hit by the pandemic, but an incomplete data set is clouding scientists’ ability to understand why.

The pattern underscores the role that sex—and the associated social norms and behaviors—plays as an indicator of risk and response to infection and disease.

“There are profound sex differences in immune systems, and this pandemic is revealing them once again,” said Marcia Stefanick, a professor of medicine at the Stanford Prevention Research Center, part of Stanford University School of Medicine. “What is biology versus what are our social norms and gender behaviors confounds our ability to understand what’s going on.”

In Italy, men comprised about 70% of the deaths from Covid-19—the illness caused by the new coronavirus—as of March 26, according to the country’s National Health Institute (ISS).

Men are also more likely to be infected by the virus, especially if they are older with underlying health conditions, scientists say. In China, several studies show men comprised more than half the infected patients since the first cases appeared in December.

Past transnational outbreaks of illnesses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2012 also posed double the risk of death for men compared with women, studies showed.

Men across the globe are now considered three times more at risk of dying in a hospital from Covid-19, according to a meta-analysis done by researchers at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine. The study, published by medRxiv—a site for non-peer reviewed papers—breaks down data published between Jan. 1 and March 3 on 4,789 patients.

One reason may be that social behaviors likely to increase chances of infection and death from the virus—such as smoking and alcohol consumption—are associated more with men. This could explain why they tend to suffer more than women from conditions such as lung cancer and heart attacks, according to a 2016 study published in the journal JAMA.

In Italy, more than 7 million smokers are men, while 4.5 million are women, according to ISS. In China, the prevalence of smoking among men is 10 times higher than among women, experts say.

What’s more, scientists say the prevalence of the receptor that helps the new coronavirus enter human cells is higher in smokers, which might explain why more men are taking a blow from a disease that largely affects the respiratory system.

“The thing is, more studies need to be done around the world,” said Sara Haddadi, co-author of the preprint in medRxiv and a clinical-research coordinator in the division of pulmonary and critical care at the University of Miami.

Countries differ widely in their health-care capacities and responses, which affects the number of people tested as well as cases and deaths detected and reported. The U.S. has the most confirmed cases world-wide, yet isn’t releasing data broken down by sex. This, experts say, is hurting the medical community’s chances of protecting those most vulnerable to the disease.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention didn’t comment.

Gender distribution in the workplace also plays a role. Some scientists in Wuhan, China, speculated the virus’s prevalence in men could be tied to their dominance in the labor trades, which likely brought them closer to the local market where the pathogen is thought to have jumped from one unidentified species to people.

Women also have more robust immune systems, Dr. Stefanick said, adding that they react better to vaccinations and can clear infections more easily than men.

Part of the reason being is that through pregnancy, women’s bodies have learned to attack invaders such as bacteria, viruses—and sperm. For nine months, a woman carries foreign DNA in her body and must protect it to produce life. “Evolution has been working this way for a long time, and it isn’t just in women, this is true of animals as well,” Dr. Stefanick said.

Sex chromosomes play a part, too, she said. Men have a pair comprising X and Y, while women have two X’s. The X, which has about 900 genes—many related to immune function—is about three times as large as the Y chromosome. “So females have double the doses” of those genes that can support their immune system, Dr. Stefanick said.

Researchers say the Covid-19 disparity raises questions about possible gender-related reactions to different treatments and the potential need for more aggressive treatment in men. Such would include earlier intubation and mechanical ventilation, though researchers say more data is needed to understand why.

LINK

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
I find it interesting that two pages back f2 posted about a possible vaccine breakthrough from Pitt School of Medicine. It could be delivered through the skin on a small patch therefore making it easy to produce and distribute. No one cared to comment on it.

The scientists at Pitt were ahead of the curve because they had been studying previous coronavirus outbreaks so they were already on the ground running when this one came along. Sure it's not going to be available tomorrow or next week but none the less some damn good news.

But no one apparently wants to bother commenting on it and let the thought that maybe the sun is rising instead of setting creep into their mind. Nope lets just keep crunching numbers and projections, graphs and charts that are just bad, bad ,bad and worse.

People are saying this is war. War is as much if not more psychological than it is anything else.
And if this is war we've lost the psychological battle 300 plus pages ago in this thread.

There are faces we have never seen on the news and names we have never heard of that are going to come forward with a solution to this that will allow us to get back to some semblance of a normal life. The truth is out there.

Thanks for that, U of Pitt has been a leader in gene therapy for several years. I’m hoping a vaccine will be readily available by late fall, but the more likely remedy will be an antiviral.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo Jones:
Are they arresting people for running, biking, or going for walks?

As I’ve mentioned before, people need to be aware of what the actual orders in their jurisdiction say. In Colorado the statewide order permits “outdoor” activities such as the ones you mention. Local jurisdictions, however, are also permitted to issue more restrictive rules. I have no idea what the rules might be there, but it’s quite possible that what that man was doing was prohibited—not for any good reason I can think of, but then that’s true of many California rules and laws.

But this incident should also clarify the beliefs of the people who think that there are no laws backing up such health orders and that they can be ignored with impunity.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
I find it interesting that two pages back f2 posted about a possible vaccine breakthrough from Pitt School of Medicine. It could be delivered through the skin on a small patch therefore making it easy to produce and distribute. No one cared to comment on it.

The scientists at Pitt were ahead of the curve because they had been studying previous coronavirus outbreaks so they were already on the ground running when this one came along. Sure it's not going to be available tomorrow or next week but none the less some damn good news.

But no one apparently wants to bother commenting on it and let the thought that maybe the sun is rising instead of setting creep into their mind. Nope lets just keep crunching numbers and projections, graphs and charts that are just bad, bad ,bad and worse.

People are saying this is war. War is as much if not more psychological than it is anything else.
And if this is war we've lost the psychological battle 300 plus pages ago in this thread.

There are faces we have never seen on the news and names we have never heard of that are going to come forward with a solution to this that will allow us to get back to some semblance of a normal life. The truth is out there.

There are dozens of groups, if not hundreds, around the world working on vaccines. There are news stories constantly about why this one or that one is especially promising.

Here's one from late February about an Israeli group that thought they could adapt their avian coronavirus vaccine research to this disease and have a vaccine ready in weeks.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/28/...coronavirus-vaccine/

That group is hoping to start human testing by June 1.

A vaccine will be developed eventually. Sooner rather than later, I hope. But until a vaccine is actually in human trials, articles like this are pretty much fluff. Even then, there's no guarantee that any given vaccine will actually prove effective and safe in human trials.

Nice to always get a contrary opinion from you. Thanks for the positive attitude! And this has been said before...

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

More infected men than women seem to be dying from the new coronavirus, according to data from countries hit by the pandemic, but an incomplete data set is clouding scientists’ ability to understand why.

The pattern underscores the role that sex—and the associated social norms and behaviors—plays as an indicator of risk and response to infection and disease.

Many more liberals males now identify as female so that they decrease their risk

Are reported cases taking over a week for CDC to show in their data or am I missing something? The CDC data link shows 213K as of today (cumulative, so that includes people that have recovered). But the bell curve near the bottom of the page shows number of reported cases drastically dropping. It does note that not all cases would have been reported. But are they that far behind or is the curve lowering?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...YkOjevOMRI8WuKYnZsuE

The first info I saw was out of China they were seeing the same phenomenon, attributed to higher % of men smoke, relative to women, like at least two-fold.

Interested to see the stats incorporate this data.

quote:

Originally posted by zipriderson:

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

More infected men than women seem to be dying from the new coronavirus, according to data from countries hit by the pandemic, but an incomplete data set is clouding scientists’ ability to understand why.

The pattern underscores the role that sex—and the associated social norms and behaviors—plays as an indicator of risk and response to infection and disease.

Many more liberals males now identify as female so that they decrease their risk

Regarding new vaccines, what are the dangers? Aside from being ineffective and the potential side effects all vaccines share?

And take these all with a grain of salt/assumption that the number of cases reported is in line with the actual number of cases.

I read an article that said that the death rate in Italy was artificially high as the number reported cases was possibly 1/10 the actual #.

That being said, if you look at the # of deaths per million people in a particular country, I think thats a very telling number.

USA: 20 deaths / million

Spain and Italy: 234 & 230 deaths per million people in the country

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

quote:

Originally posted by ugeesta:
6,059/245,175 = .0247 = 2.47% Need to multiply the .0247 by 100 to get the % rate

quote:

Originally posted by mutedblade:
Can someone help me with some math?

The latest COVID tracker is saying 6,059 deaths in the US

Out of 245,175 confirmed cases.

So if you do 6,059 / 245,175 I am coming up with a death rate of .0247. Let's go ahead and round that up to .025%. 1/40th of a percent. That's not even close to 2-5% that I see some of you guys using. Am I missing something or is my math just not adding up?

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
Are reported cases taking over a week for CDC to show in their data or am I missing something? The CDC data link shows 213K as of today (cumulative, so that includes people that have recovered). But the bell curve near the bottom of the page shows number of reported cases drastically dropping. It does note that not all cases would have been reported. But are they that far behind or is the curve lowering?

I'd say it's a reflection of asymptomatic infection that will show up in a week. Once the area to the left of the exclusion bar at the top starts to drop, we're in a better place.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:
Are reported cases taking over a week for CDC to show in their data or am I missing something? The CDC data link shows 213K as of today (cumulative, so that includes people that have recovered). But the bell curve near the bottom of the page shows number of reported cases drastically dropping. It does note that not all cases would have been reported. But are they that far behind or is the curve lowering?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...YkOjevOMRI8WuKYnZsuE

Testing is taking upwards of a week from the time the specimen is collected, to the time the lab is able to process it and report the results. There are only 25 laboratories (aside from Government ones) that are capable of doing the testing, since it has to be done by molecular testing. A good friend of mine and customer of over 10 years owns one of them that is doing the testing for 7 states, they can only do 1500 tests per day.

Arresting a guy for paddle boarding while turning real criminals loose. This shit is getting old in hurry.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimbo Jones:
And take these all with a grain of salt/assumption that the number of cases reported is in line with the actual number of cases.

That's the thing for me- I cannot trust the numbers being given us.

quote:

Originally posted by SIG228:
Arresting a guy for paddle boarding while turning real criminals loose. This shit is getting old in hurry.

I'd argue he wasn't arrested for paddle boarding. He was arrested for ignoring a police order. Had he complied with the lifeguard, or with the police when they arrived, it may have been different. He decided to stay out in the water for over 30 mins, forcing the police to send a boat to retrieve him.

The details shape the story a bit more ..

quote:

Originally posted by zipriderson:

The details shape the story a bit more ..

Not really.