quote:

Originally posted by mark123:
The wife's brother is getting married for the fifth time. We got cajoled into attending. We got some non-refundable hotel reservations. She got a text today that the wedding and reception are cancelled due to the state mandating no gatherings of more than 20 people.

Maybe they will give you a voucher for a future stay in light of the current scare. Hell, they may be closed and unable to fulfill their end of the deal.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, hello, SIGforum 2021. this is yours truly in 2020, saying that most of this was unnecessary, and that's the saddest part of all.

^^^^. Hahaha.

No one is safe!

We (I) just got ordered to shelter in place for 3 weeks.

Six SF Bay Area Counties are ordered to shelter in place effective @ 12:00 tonight.

I live in Alameda County.

" Did you have a point?"

That is the point

12 Mar 2020 1,714 confirmed cases in U.S.

16 Mar 2020 4,570 confirmed cases in U.S.


2.7 x increase in 4 days

The question no one can answer yet - will the number of infections keep growing at a factor of 2 to 3 every 4 days ?

Or will it level off.

A key data point to watch is the "New cases" in the ipoint3acres plot. Today it dipped slightly (and did not increase).

edit

Unfortunately the above statement was incorrect. More data was updated. There was no "dip"



The next 2 weeks will probably tell us a lot.

If the new cases per day drop, more people recover, then the number of existing cases may peak out.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: sdy,

My wife just got temporarily laid off today. She runs a Starbucks inside a corporate office. It’s not an actual Starbucks but managed by AVI Foodsystems who actually employs my wife. Because the corporate bigwigs decide to have all employees work from home nobody buying coffee, go figure.

quote:

A key data point to watch is the "New cases" in the ipoint3acres plot. Today it dipped slightly (and did not increase).

The next 2 weeks will probably tell us a lot.

Are you sure they are done reporting all of today's "New cases"?
Yesterday's "New cases" were 800, and "cumulative cases" were 3804, which was a 21% increase.
ETA: Today's "New cases" are now 848 and it could still go higher...
But I agree: The next 2 weeks will probably tell us a lot.

And, as a result, he never learned how to properly use the three seashells.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
If the new cases per day drop, more people recover, then the number of existing cases may peak out.

Yeah, but the argument is going to be to keep everything locked down anyway (beg pardon - "sheltered in place") for a while to make sure the virus has a solid chance to die out as much as possible. A certain amount of patience is going to be required when the yo-yos in charge decide to do something like ask the entire SF Bay Area to stay home for a while.

Iowa House and Senate just agreed to waive making up lost days because of closures. I’ve got to figure out what my online lessons will be, but this is our Spring Break week, so not too worried.

Introduced the twins (12 years old) to the John Wick films...survival skills, ya know. Son asked if he could finally play “Call of Duty” - heck yes, why it...we played for several hours. Daughter has been baking.

Heck, I even tried yoga with my wife...gotta work on that flexibility...

I still have not found a decent explanation for the very different reactions between the Wuhan Virus and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 which infected 60MM and killed 12,000 in the US.

It doesn't make sense to me. There must be a reason.

On a lighter note, that presser where President Trump dropped the letter from Google is brutally hilarious.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
I still have not found a decent explanation for the very different reactions between the Wuhan Virus and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 which infected 60MM and killed 12,000 in the US.

It doesn't make sense to me. There must be a reason.

Zero was President. The media didn’t freak out. The sheeple didn’t get scared.

That was the difference.

https://www.ksl.com/article/46...ng-covid-19-outbreak

And Mittens Romney shows his true colors want to give all Americans a $1000.

Colorado just closed all dine-in establishments and bars, gyms, casinos, and theatres, for 30 days.

https://www.kktv.com/content/n...35251.html??????????

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
I still have not found a decent explanation for the very different reactions between the Wuhan Virus and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 which infected 60MM and killed 12,000 in the US.

It doesn't make sense to me. There must be a reason.

The reason is right there in your post. H1N1 killed about 12,000 people out of the estimated 60 million in the US that caught it.

1. COVID-19 appears to spread faster than the flu (H1N1 is a flu virus).

2. There are about 180,000 known cases of COVID-19. About 80,000 of them are people who got sick and got better. About 7,000 of them got sick and died. The rest are still sick.

There are certainly a lot of people who have gotten it and gotten better that we don't know about, which make things better than those numbers would indicate, but we don't know how much better.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
I still have not found a decent explanation for the very different reactions between the Wuhan Virus and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 which infected 60MM and killed 12,000 in the US.

It doesn't make sense to me. There must be a reason.

The reason is right there in your post. H1N1 killed about 12,000 people out of the estimated 60 million in the US that caught it.

1. COVID-19 appears to spread faster than the flu (H1N1 is a flu virus).

2. There are about 180,000 known cases of COVID-19. About 80,000 of them are people who got sick and got better. About 7,000 of them got sick and died. The rest are still sick.

There are certainly a lot of people who have gotten it and gotten better that we don't know about, which make things better than those numbers would indicate, but we don't know how much better.

He made the exact post on page 139 and got similar answers....this thread has turned into groundhog day.

My wife is a RN at one of the level 1 trauma hospitals in Oregon. She said everyone is on edge. She said it's creepy quiet right now. All elective surgeries have been cancelled. They're clearing up rooms for an expected wave of cases. Like has been stated before, it's like the city of Miami bracing for a CAT-5 hurricane that's supposed to make landfall the next day.

So far they only have one patient who is positive but are waiting on a bunch of pending tests for both inpatients and outpatients.

I'll let you all know what the tone is on the floor as I hear it from her.

Tony.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
I still have not found a decent explanation for the very different reactions between the Wuhan Virus and the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 which infected 60MM and killed 12,000 in the US.

It doesn't make sense to me. There must be a reason.

The reason is right there in your post. H1N1 killed about 12,000 people out of the estimated 60 million in the US that caught it.

1. COVID-19 appears to spread faster than the flu (H1N1 is a flu virus).

2. There are about 180,000 known cases of COVID-19. About 80,000 of them are people who got sick and got better. About 7,000 of them got sick and died. The rest are still sick.

There are certainly a lot of people who have gotten it and gotten better that we don't know about, which make things better than those numbers would indicate, but we don't know how much better.

At this point in the H1N1 pandemic, the mortality rate was thought to be similar to what we are seeing now with the Covid-19. It's not until the testing regime is in place and the full extent of the infection rate is determined that . the true mortality rate can be determined. They didn't know a few months into it that the mortality rate would end up being .02%. A few months in, they were looking at a mortality rate of 3%. You can't look at it in hindsight and say there was no reason to overreact. I suspect that when this crisis is all over, the mortality rate will end up being significantly lower than what it is currently.
Also, H1N1 affected people of all ages, whereas Covid-19 seems to overwhelmingly affect the elderly.

I'm not saying the reaction to Covid-19 is or isn't warranted. I just don't get why we weren't panicked over H1N1.