When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)

Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé

posted

This is their new strategy, to gaslight the country to believe the President was in denial early on which caused this situation today. Pelosi is out there pushing that narrative hard, even though it was her standing shoulder to shoulder in the middle of China town calling the president racist and urging everyone to come mingle intimately with the Wuhan back in late January. CORRECTION: That was late February in fact!

~Alan

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Ignored post by Balzé Halzé posted

Krazeehorse

Member

posted

quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
This is their new strategy, to gaslight the country to believe the President was in denial early on which caused this situation today. Pelosi is out there pushing that narrative hard, even though it was her standing shoulder to shoulder in the middle of China town calling the president racist and urging everyone to come mingle intimately with the Wuhan back in late January.

I expect we may see some of those clips in Trump's ads when we get back to the campaign.

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Ignored post by Krazeehorse posted

Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé

posted

^^^^I said January, but she actually did that in late February. Despicable liars.

~Alan

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God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

Posts: 31138 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012

Ignored post by Balzé Halzé posted

lastmanstanding

Member

posted

quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, the White House keeps issuing larger death estimates each day, so it's apparent I must be missing something in all this. Either that, or these numbers and estimates are false. I don't think it's s surprise to anyone here that most of us don't trust even routine information given to us, much less something of this magnitude.
President Trump is as well informed on the matter as anyone, and he seems to be in harmony with Birx and Fauci. The truth and the real numbers will be known eventually but we're in for a ride until then.

This really is like a war; no one wants it, everyone's lives are turned upside down in the midst of it, and after it's over, nothing and no one is quite the same as before. Some of the change will be for the worse, some for the better, but, whatever the balance, life will be different after this catastrophe and all of us will have a greater appreciation for the fresh air and the company of strangers.

The amount of pressure on Trump is unimaginable right now and is no doubt wearing on him mentally and emotionally like we will never know. We don't know what information and pressures are put on him behind closed doors. He isn't walking a political tight rope he's walking a political razor blade with the dems and the media poking him from down below with lances hoping to knock him off. He can't even give the appearance of disagreeing he's in it with Fauci and Birx now and there's no going back even though he may think otherwise from what he's being told.

"Fixed fortifications are monuments to mans stupidity" - George S. Patton

Posts: 8686 | Location: Minnesota | Registered: June 17, 2007

Ignored post by lastmanstanding posted

bigdeal

Member

posted

quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
quote:
Originally posted by bigdeal:
Really? That's your response?
[remainder elided for the sake of brevity...]

Ok, so your assertion that their projections are "wild-eyed" is not because you have any evidence or expertise, but simply because you believe, or wish to believe, they're wild-eyed.

Just wanted to make certain.

Yet again, for brevity, they can't prove their numbers are any better than anyone else's, but their too goddamn arrogant to admit it. Everyone is guessing. I take issue with their putting 'guesses' out there that do nothing but terrify the population (I deal with a microcosm of this shit every year when hurricane season rolls around). What value is served by telling the people of a particular state that X number of them will be dead by May whatever? For Christ sake, the experts can't even tell us with any degree of accuracy if and/or when its going to rain tomorrow.

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Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter

Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006

Ignored post by bigdeal posted

ensigmatic

Nullus Anxietas
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posted

quote:
Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
[Trump] can't even give the appearance of disagreeing he's in it with Fauci and Birx now and there's no going back even though he may think otherwise from what he's being told.

Sure he can. This is the very kind of thing the media was hammering him about in the last presser I saw. "I'm an optimist" was his response. He lets his experts speak their piece and plays the optimist. "This is gonna suck. Maybe gonna suck big-time. I don't think so, but we'll see. Either way: We'll get through it because we're Americans and that's what we do. And when it's over we'll come back stronger than ever." I think it's a good balance between realistic appraisal and an optimistic leader.

"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher

Posts: 26009 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008

Ignored post by ensigmatic posted

Rightwire

Coin Sniper
Picture of Rightwire

posted

Im going to say it, all of these stats, projections and curves are total B.S., educated guesses at best.

The data is inaccurate at best. You are only testing a small sample of the population and that is random. No one has any idea what the true infection and recovery rate is today as they're only testing the very sick, if tests are available.

The only thing you can accurately determine is the % of tested positive, the % of tested negative, increase/decrease, and % of deaths & recoveries.

The fact that you're testing more, and more are positive doesn't mean there is an increase in rate of spread, it only demonstrates you can record and report that data. It doesn't appear to show how many were already presumed and now simply confirmed.

Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys

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Ignored post by Rightwire posted

Black92LX

Raised Hands Surround Us
Three Nails To Protect Us
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posted

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...EJMe2002387?query=RP

quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, the White House keeps issuing larger death estimates each day, so it's apparent I must be missing something in all this. Either that, or these numbers and estimates are false. I don't think it's s surprise to anyone here that most of us don't trust even routine information given to us, much less something of this magnitude.
President Trump is as well informed on the matter as anyone, and he seems to be in harmony with Birx and Fauci. The truth and the real numbers will be known eventually but we're in for a ride until then.

This really is like a war; no one wants it, everyone's lives are turned upside down in the midst of it, and after it's over, nothing and no one is quite the same as before. Some of the change will be for the worse, some for the better, but, whatever the balance, life will be different after this catastrophe and all of us will have a greater appreciation for the fresh air and the company of strangers.

It is weird Fauci says one thing in the briefs with the President. But publishes in the New England Journal of Medicine that it will look just like the mortality rate of the flu.

quote:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

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Ignored post by Black92LX posted

Doc H.

Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.

posted

quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, the White House keeps issuing larger death estimates each day, so it's apparent I must be missing something in all this. Either that, or these numbers and estimates are false. I don't think it's s surprise to anyone here that most of us don't trust even routine information given to us, much less something of this magnitude.
President Trump is as well informed on the matter as anyone, and he seems to be in harmony with Birx and Fauci. The truth and the real numbers will be known eventually but we're in for a ride until then.

This really is like a war; no one wants it, everyone's lives are turned upside down in the midst of it, and after it's over, nothing and no one is quite the same as before. Some of the change will be for the worse, some for the better, but, whatever the balance, life will be different after this catastrophe and all of us will have a greater appreciation for the fresh air and the company of strangers.

And amen to that.

"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"

Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011

Ignored post by Doc H. posted

Prefontaine

Member

posted

quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
POS Jos Scarborough:

“Everybody saw [COVID-19] coming in early January”

really ?

World Health Organization on January 14, 2020: “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China”

In late January, Joe Biden was calling President Trump xenophobic for cutting travel to China

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534...ly-january-you-hack/

No fan of this clown but I see “Chinese Authorities” and I am done as they are liars protecting their own asses. Many people believe they knew much earlier.

What am I doing? I'm talking to an empty telephone

Posts: 13068 | Location: Down South | Registered: January 16, 2010

Ignored post by Prefontaine posted

Krazeehorse

Member

posted

quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
^^^^I said January, but she actually did that in late February. Despicable liars.

If I was one of Joe's handlers my advice would be STFU regarding the pandemic. If Trump gets it mostly right his critics come off looking like asses, I would think even to the never Trumpers.

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Ignored post by Krazeehorse posted

Kevbo

In search of baseball, strippers, and guns

posted

I believe the disconnect there is the infectivity rate

It might have a mortality rate similar to the flu

But if it infects 100 million people that will mean 100,000 dead (at .1%).

quote:
Originally posted by Black92LX:
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, the White House keeps issuing larger death estimates each day, so it's apparent I must be missing something in all this. Either that, or these numbers and estimates are false. I don't think it's s surprise to anyone here that most of us don't trust even routine information given to us, much less something of this magnitude.
President Trump is as well informed on the matter as anyone, and he seems to be in harmony with Birx and Fauci. The truth and the real numbers will be known eventually but we're in for a ride until then.

This really is like a war; no one wants it, everyone's lives are turned upside down in the midst of it, and after it's over, nothing and no one is quite the same as before. Some of the change will be for the worse, some for the better, but, whatever the balance, life will be different after this catastrophe and all of us will have a greater appreciation for the fresh air and the company of strangers.

It is weird Fauci says one thing in the briefs with the President. But publishes in the New England Journal of Medicine that it will look just like the mortality rate of the flu.

quote:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...EJMe2002387?query=RP

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If the meek will inherit the earth, what will happen to us tigers?

Posts: 7796 | Location: Warrenton, VA | Registered: July 09, 2005

Ignored post by Kevbo posted

bigdeal

Member

posted

quote:
Originally posted by trapper189:
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May.

One might also ask, if this virus does not like hot weather, why aren't our numbers declining (or at least slowing to rise) given the damn temperature has been near 90 degrees for the past couple weeks? I did some yard work on Saturday and the temp gauge at my house showed 92 degrees.

-----------------------------
Guns are awesome because they shoot solid lead freedom. Every man should have several guns. And several dogs, because a man with a cat is a woman. Kurt Schlichter

Posts: 33845 | Location: Orlando, FL | Registered: April 30, 2006

Ignored post by bigdeal posted

Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé

posted

quote:
Originally posted by Black92LX:

It is weird Fauci says one thing in the briefs with the President. But publishes in the New England Journal of Medicine that it will look just like the mortality rate of the flu.

quote:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...EJMe2002387?query=RP

I don't think it's weird at all actually. This is what prognosticators like him do; they hedge their bets. I'll be Frank, I even question the "confirmed" numbers we're being given now. At this point, I don't think it would make a damned bit of difference (as far as the effect of the virus that is) whether we restart the economy now or in 30 days. The effect on the economy however gets more devastating every single day we keep this nonsense going.

~Alan

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NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

Posts: 31138 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012

Ignored post by Balzé Halzé posted

triggertreat

Member

posted

DocH or any one else.Has there been any preliminary reports out of New York on the trial treatments?

I'm alright it's the rest of the world that's all screwed up!

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Ignored post by triggertreat posted

Patriot

Run Silent
Run Deep

Picture of Patriot

posted

quote:
Originally posted by Kevbo:
I believe the disconnect there is the infectivity rate

It might have a mortality rate similar to the flu

But if it infects 100 million people that will mean 100,000 dead (at .1%).

quote:
Originally posted by Black92LX:
quote:
Originally posted by parabellum:
Well, the White House keeps issuing larger death estimates each day, so it's apparent I must be missing something in all this. Either that, or these numbers and estimates are false. I don't think it's s surprise to anyone here that most of us don't trust even routine information given to us, much less something of this magnitude.
President Trump is as well informed on the matter as anyone, and he seems to be in harmony with Birx and Fauci. The truth and the real numbers will be known eventually but we're in for a ride until then.

This really is like a war; no one wants it, everyone's lives are turned upside down in the midst of it, and after it's over, nothing and no one is quite the same as before. Some of the change will be for the worse, some for the better, but, whatever the balance, life will be different after this catastrophe and all of us will have a greater appreciation for the fresh air and the company of strangers.

It is weird Fauci says one thing in the briefs with the President. But publishes in the New England Journal of Medicine that it will look just like the mortality rate of the flu.

quote:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...EJMe2002387?query=RP

That and the speed of transmissions.

Many comments and statistic prognosticators lose sight of this.

Its not the overall amount...or the death rate %. It's how fast all that will occur.

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Ignored post by Patriot posted

Patriot

Run Silent
Run Deep

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posted

quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

I don't think it's weird at all actually. This is what prognosticators like him do; they hedge their bets. I'll be Frank, I even question the "confirmed" numbers we're being given now. At this point, I don't think it would make a damned bit of difference (as far as the effect of the virus that is) whether we restart the economy now or in 30 days. The effect on the economy however gets more devastating every single day we keep this nonsense going.

Hi Frank...

Posts: 7084 | Location: South East, Pa | Registered: July 04, 2002

Ignored post by Patriot posted

sigalert

Be prepared for loud noise and recoil
Picture of sigalert

posted

I’m assuming we’re in for a rough couple of months. We’re not going to know what happened with any certainty for years. All decisions made until then are done in the fog of war. President Trump is doing the best he can with the information at hand. Mistakes will happen. Corrections made.

I’m taking lessons from this. In June when we come back to some normalcy, I’ll be making preparations for when it comes back in the fall/winter.

“Crisis is the rallying cry of the tyrant.” – James Madison

"Keep your fears to yourself, but share your courage with others." - Robert Louis Stevenson

Posts: 3628 | Location: Middle Tennessee | Registered: March 23, 2006

Ignored post by sigalert posted

Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé

posted

^^^ Damn autocorrect

~Alan

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NRA Life Member (Patron)
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Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

Posts: 31138 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012

Ignored post by Balzé Halzé posted