quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
...Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus.

As I understand it, in CV19 terms, time travel to our future-state can be done by looking at China, or Italy. So would we see that in China now if we should expect it here. The difficulty being the variables of how they are iron-fist dealing with the population control, and also the reporting accuracy questions.

To restate what I think I'm hearing you say: If this mutates a tiny bit, it's infectiousness should drop. If that's a correct understanding of your comments, then it is infectious because of its genetic makeup specifically and not simply because it is new to human kind?

Thanks!

When I read this, the first thing that popped into my head was "blankets given to Indians"

Russia is sending a plane filled with medical equipment to the United States to help fight the coronavirus following a phone conversation between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday.


The Russian Embassy Tuesday posted on its social media channels that "Russia may send a plane with medical equipment and protection gear to the United States already on Tuesday," citing the Russian news agency TASS. Reuters later reported that Russian state TV was saying the flight had taken off early Wednesday morning.

This comes after Trump indicated, without much context, that Russia was sending some sort of medical aid in his Monday coronavirus task force briefing.

"And I have to say, we've had great relationships with a lot of countries," Trump said. "China sent us some stuff, which was terrific. Russia sent us a very, very large planeload of things, medical equipment, which was very nice."

The Russian Embassy's Twitter account said Tuesday that in sending the aid to the U.S. as it fights to hold down its coronavirus death toll, which the White House has projected is likely to be between 100,000 and 240,000, Russia would hope for help from the United States should the coronavirus pandemic become more severe within its borders later this year.

"Importantly, when offering assistance to the American colleagues, President Putin is guided by the following consideration: when manufacturers of medical equipment gain momentum they will be able to reciprocate if need be," it said.

A Facebook post by the Russian Embassy said Putin offered the help to Trump during the call.

"Being aware of the serious epidemiological situation in America, the Russian side offered medical equipment and protective gear as assistance," the post quoted Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying.

The Russian foreign ministry posted a video of the plane's contents and its takeoff early Wednesday morning.

A readout of the call between Trump and Putin, which the White House released Monday, did not mention any discussion of Russian medical aid to the United States.

"President Trump and President Putin discussed the latest developments and efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic," the readout read. "The two leaders agreed to work closely together through the G20 to drive the international campaign to defeat the virus and reinvigorate the global economy. The leaders also discussed critical bilateral and global issues. President Trump and President Putin agreed on the importance of stability in global energy markets."

The cooperation between the two countries comes as tensions have been strained between Russia and the U.S. in recent years due to Russia's expansionist tendencies, menacing toward American allies, election interference and more.

The White House did not immediately return a request for comment by Fox News.


https://www.foxnews.com/politi...coronavirus-pandemic

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May.

Florida has not mandated shutdowns ,spring break and senior noncompliance are issues. Regional travel with New Orleans ?

Apparently AL is acting as effectively as usual.

Our daughter who works in an AL hospital started showing symptoms last Th. They tested her then, sent her home. Results back in 72 hours. Nothing yet, her call yesterday was greeted with "sorry, the state labs are behind".

Terrific. Still just nominal symptoms, no significant fever. Sure she'll be fine, but not encouraging if testing is supposed to be ramped up that they are still taking nearly a week.

It wouldn't surprise me if China intentionally sent thousands of people they knew were infected abroad as part of their long-range plan for economic dominance.

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
My buddy who’s a Marine and nurse in PA said that “Shit has Hit the Fan” in his hospital.

He’s a very level headed guy and last night admitted his opinion of the virus changed from “no big deal” to “oh shit.”

My fiancee is as well, and things are very close to "oh shit" at her hospital in the same area. It's worse downtown and getting progressively bad at hospitals farther out of the city, from what I hear.

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
...Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus.

As I understand it, in CV19 terms, time travel to our future-state can be done by looking at China, or Italy. So would we see that in China now if we should expect it here. The difficulty being the variables of how they are iron-fist dealing with the population control, and also the reporting accuracy questions.

To restate what I think I'm hearing you say: If this mutates a tiny bit, it's infectiousness should drop. If that's a correct understanding of your comments, then it is infectious because of its genetic makeup specifically and not simply because it is new to human kind?

Thanks!

Correct. More and more, SARS-CoV-2 looks like an accident of creation, and we are the unlucky recipients. It appears to be a combination of viruses, from its genome among betacoronaviruses, or a "chimera," with a unique protein shell that is specific for receptors on human cells. So unlike a pathogen that has been lurking in the jungle, waiting for a random opportunity to infect the right host, it is new to the world, and us. Caused by the mega-trillions of changes viruses undergo daily. This one just happened to be bad. Really bad. It's infectivity is actually it's lethality, because in the process of its replication it destroys the host cell. Times a billion. Our own immune systems exacerbate that, but it would be bad just for the rate and number of cells it destroys. And it owes that to its exterior coat, which it came by purely by accident. It's also durable enough, in the virus world, to spread by droplets in the air, or contact from surfaces recently infected.

Another RNA virus, a rhabdovirus, Rabies Lyssavirus, can be transmitted (as far as we know) almost exclusively by the bite of a rabid animal. It is 100% fatal in an infected host - once symptomatic, there is no treatment or cure (one symptomatic survivor to date of which I'm aware). If it had the same transmission as this virus, it would eradicate 80% of humanity - maybe more - within a year. Purely by chance, it has not.

So the "shell" of this "wee virus thingy" - I love the Scots - is both its weapon and its weakness. Randomly acquired, delicate, and very specific. How vulnerable remains to be seen.

I realize this is a drift from the usual “It’s dangerous,” “No, it’s not,” back and forthing here, but in the spirit of not opening a new thread related to the topic, I have a question about N95 and similar masks.

More than one poster here and even an article or two I’ve read elsewhere seem to downplay the value of such masks with an immediate “But they must be fitted” warning whenever they’re mentioned. So: What is involved in fitting such a mask?

I’ve attempted to answer the question myself, and have found a few videos by healthcare professionals and manufacturers of the masks, but I seem to still be missing something. That’s because none of that guidance makes it seem, as I’ve gotten the impression here, that fitting an N95 mask is as complex and difficult as, say, preparing an astronaut’s suit for a spacewalk or suiting up to enter a level 4 biosafety facility. Those videos discuss adjusting the straps and nose piece and ensuring the mask is a close fit to one’s face—none of which seems to be very difficult. Is there something else we should know about the process?

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May.

Florida has not mandated shutdowns ,spring break and senior noncompliance are issues. Regional travel with New Orleans ?

Don't forget NY people fleeing NY for their summer / family homes in FL.

And Orlando / Miami have a lot of same tourist issues as NYC, albeit on a smaller level.

I'll beat the horse one more time. Because these curves are important

After looking at the contours and trying to match confidence intervals, I am wondering if we are looking at 3 diff curves

The diff between the curves is the day that the peak occurs.

Remember - there is an exponential rise at the front that turns into a normal curve that peaks out. If the data keeps rising exponentially longer, that means the peak is higher.

quote:

The diff between the curves is the day that the peak occurs.

It's a range of likely possibilities.
We will only know after it happens.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
I realize this is a drift from the usual “It’s dangerous,” “No, it’s not,” back and forthing here, but in the spirit of not opening a new thread related to the topic, I have a question about N95 and similar masks.

More than one poster here and even an article or two I’ve read elsewhere seems to downplay the value of such masks with an immediate “But they must be fitted” warning whenever they’re mentioned. So: What is involved in fitting such a mask?

I’ve attempted to answer the question myself, and have found a few videos by healthcare professionals and manufacturers of the masks, but I seem to still be missing something. That’s because none of that guidance makes it seem, as I’ve gotten the impression here, that fitting an N95 mask is as complex and difficult as, say, preparing an astronaut’s suit for a spacewalk or getting ready to enter a level 4 biosafety facility. Those videos discuss adjusting the straps and nose piece and ensuring the mask is a close fit to one’s face—none of which seems to be very difficult. Is there something else we should know about the process?

Here is a good explanation of Fit Testing.

TL;DR Different sizes, shapes, and brands of protection don't work effectively on all faces. Fit testing ensures that the type you use actually works for you.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
Is there something else we should know about the process?

If we told you, then we'd have to kill you.

No masks for you.

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
I'll beat the horse one more time. Because these curves are important

After looking at the contours and trying to match confidence intervals, I am wondering if we are looking at 3 diff curves

The diff between the curves is the day that the peak occurs.

Remember - there is an exponential rise at the front that turns into a normal curve that peaks out. If the data keeps rising exponentially longer, that means the peak is higher.

In the Project management world we would call the three curves most optimistic, most pessimistic and most likely. A formula called a PERT analysis is used to predict the outcome of the three death per day values for planning purposes.

MP = 4526, MO = 1523, ML = 2607. Pert outcome = (MO+MLx4+MP)/6 = 2746 deaths per day

Pert analysis is often used when doing risk planning. we will see on or about April 15.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
...Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus.

As I understand it, in CV19 terms, time travel to our future-state can be done by looking at China, or Italy. So would we see that in China now if we should expect it here. The difficulty being the variables of how they are iron-fist dealing with the population control, and also the reporting accuracy questions.

To restate what I think I'm hearing you say: If this mutates a tiny bit, it's infectiousness should drop. If that's a correct understanding of your comments, then it is infectious because of its genetic makeup specifically and not simply because it is new to human kind?

Thanks!

Correct. More and more, SARS-CoV-2 looks like an accident of creation, and we are the unlucky recipients. It appears to be a combination of viruses, from its genome among betacoronaviruses, or a "chimera," with a unique protein shell that is specific for receptors on human cells. So unlike a pathogen that has been lurking in the jungle, waiting for a random opportunity to infect the right host, it is new to the world, and us. Caused by the mega-trillions of changes viruses undergo daily. This one just happened to be bad. Really bad. It's infectivity is actually it's lethality, because in the process of its replication it destroys the host cell. Times a billion. Our own immune systems exacerbate that, but it would be bad just for the rate and number of cells it destroys. And it owes that to its exterior coat, which it came by purely by accident. It's also durable enough, in the virus world, to spread by droplets in the air, or contact from surfaces recently infected.

Another RNA virus, a rhabdovirus, Rabies Lyssavirus, can be transmitted (as far as we know) almost exclusively by the bite of a rabid animal. It is 100% fatal in an infected host - once symptomatic, there is no treatment or cure (one symptomatic survivor to date of which I'm aware). If it had the same transmission as this virus, it would eradicate 80% of humanity - maybe more - within a year. Purely by chance, it has not.

So the "shell" of this "wee virus thingy" - I love the Scots - is both its weapon and its weakness. Randomly acquired, delicate, and very specific. How vulnerable remains to be seen.

Love your sharing of knowledge Doc. Would a 10mm penetrate its shell?

quote:

Originally posted by Oat_Action_Man:

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
My buddy who’s a Marine and nurse in PA said that “Shit has Hit the Fan” in his hospital.

He’s a very level headed guy and last night admitted his opinion of the virus changed from “no big deal” to “oh shit.”

My fiancee is as well, and things are very close to "oh shit" at her hospital in the same area. It's worse downtown and getting progressively bad at hospitals farther out of the city, from what I hear.

Good luck to her and you as well. He has 4 kids, two with asthma that he’s worried about. Interesting to me that 2 weeks ago he said this is all bullshit, now his view has shifted.

In other news, my 63 year old friend with asthma that tested positive and was in isolation and receiving treatment has been discharged this morning. I’ll give him a call and update you all on his experience later. He was originally very afraid because his blood type is A and that was supposedly a bad thing for his outcome.

Crazy how my other super healthy and younger buddy was on a respirator for 2 weeks, almost died, and now has 30% reduced lung function.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
..... I have a question about N95 and similar masks.

With the caveat that I'm no expert, fitment of n95 and similar masks really isn't too complex. If it fits your face properly so there are no gaps, you're good. Facial hair causes a problem obviously.

This is just in regard to n95 type cloth or paper type masks. If using the cartridge based respirator type masks the fitment is very similar to gas masks. Adjust for a good seal and close off vents to check for suction and back pressure.

Something good to keep in mind is that at this point the experts don't seem to be too worried about aerosol transmission. The real benefit of a paper/cloth mask is to help protect you from droplets sneezed or coughed onto you and to protect others from your droplets. Also to keep your hands off your nose or mouth. Perfect airtight seal on paper/cloth masks doesn't exist imho.

BTW, good call on wearing the glasses you mentioned earlier in this thread. An N95 isn't gonna help much if someone sneezes into your eyes.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
...Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus.

As I understand it, in CV19 terms, time travel to our future-state can be done by looking at China, or Italy. So would we see that in China now if we should expect it here. The difficulty being the variables of how they are iron-fist dealing with the population control, and also the reporting accuracy questions.

To restate what I think I'm hearing you say: If this mutates a tiny bit, it's infectiousness should drop. If that's a correct understanding of your comments, then it is infectious because of its genetic makeup specifically and not simply because it is new to human kind?

Thanks!

Correct. More and more, SARS-CoV-2 looks like an accident of creation, and we are the unlucky recipients. It appears to be a combination of viruses, from its genome among betacoronaviruses, or a "chimera," with a unique protein shell that is specific for receptors on human cells. So unlike a pathogen that has been lurking in the jungle, waiting for a random opportunity to infect the right host, it is new to the world, and us. Caused by the mega-trillions of changes viruses undergo daily. This one just happened to be bad. Really bad. It's infectivity is actually it's lethality, because in the process of its replication it destroys the host cell. Times a billion. Our own immune systems exacerbate that, but it would be bad just for the rate and number of cells it destroys. And it owes that to its exterior coat, which it came by purely by accident. It's also durable enough, in the virus world, to spread by droplets in the air, or contact from surfaces recently infected.

Another RNA virus, a rhabdovirus, Rabies Lyssavirus, can be transmitted (as far as we know) almost exclusively by the bite of a rabid animal. It is 100% fatal in an infected host - once symptomatic, there is no treatment or cure (one symptomatic survivor to date of which I'm aware). If it had the same transmission as this virus, it would eradicate 80% of humanity - maybe more - within a year. Purely by chance, it has not.

So the "shell" of this "wee virus thingy" - I love the Scots - is both its weapon and its weakness. Randomly acquired, delicate, and very specific. How vulnerable remains to be seen.

Thanks Doc.

Chimera vs. Bellerophon

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:

In other news, my 63 year old friend with asthma that tested positive and was in isolation and receiving treatment has been discharged this morning. I’ll give him a call and update you all on his experience later. He was originally very afraid because his blood type is A and that was supposedly a bad thing for his outcome.

Crazy how my other super healthy and younger buddy was on a respirator for 2 weeks, almost died, and now has 30% reduced lung function.

Sounds like any other illness. What kills me may not kill you, and vice versa. Age may help survival rate but there are young people that die every day from various illnesses.

My neighbor's test just came back positive (a week later.) She showed no symptoms but was tested due to her job (nurse.)

quote:

AUSTIN, Texas — At least 28 University of Texas at Austin students tested positive for coronavirus after returning from a spring break trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Austin Public Health announced Tuesday.

Those students traveled on a chartered flight from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on March 14 and returned March 19, according to an airport official. There were at least 70 students on the outbound flight, and most of them returned on the chartered flight.

But some returned on commercial flights, Austin Public Health said.

The spring break trip, which cost students around $2,000 each, was organized by a Nevada-based company called JusCollege.

Unbelievably irresponsible actions on the part of both the students and, maybe especially, the travel company who planned the trip.

KVUE news story