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Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)Go | New | Find | Notify | Tools | Reply | |
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 (Obviously, this is not real, either.) | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
UC Tells Students "Do Not" Say "Chinese Virus" (And "Do Not Allow" Others To Say It Either) The Council of Chief Diversity Officers at the University of California released a “guidance document” to announce “supportive positive and inclusive campus climates during the COVID-19 crisis.” The list begins by telling students to “reject racism, sexism, xenophobia and all hateful or intolerant speech, both in person and online,” and to “Be an ‘up-stander,’ and discourage others from engaging in such behavior.” “Do not use terms such as ‘Chinese Virus’ or other terms which cast either intentional or unintentional projections of hatred toward Asian communities, and do not allow the use of these terms by others,” the university tells students and faculty, insisting that all members of the campus community refer to the virus as only “COVID-19” OR “coronavirus” in all “oral and written communications.” https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...others-say-it-either "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
I legitimately call it the Wuhan or Wuhan Virus whenever the subject comes up. I noticed most here have even taken to falling into the media, WHO, and chinese propaganda of calling it Covid or Covid-19. I'll continue to call it the Wuhan. ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
Are you sure the dotted line isn't just an average or midpoint line? It reminds me of the line in the 3 and 5 day hurricane path projections. People focus one the line, but it means nothing. The path of the hurricane could be anywhere within the circles and the line just represents the midpoint. | |||
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| Member |
I have watched enough Alaska State Troopers to know that alcohol is second only to firearms on the list of an Alaskan's daily necessities. | |||
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| Go ahead punk, make my day |
Followed closely in 3rd with porn. | |||
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| Member |
The way this type of model is usually presented, the line is the exact estimate produced by the model, and the shaded area is the 95% confidence or uncertainty interval (based on error estimation, the range of values they calculate has a 95% probability of containing the true outcome). They don't explicitly describe the charts that way anywhere that I can find, but they do describe some of the results that way:
From http://www.healthdata.org/rese...ator-days-and-deaths | |||
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| Member |
I think our response to this gift from China needs to be much more significant in nature - waiting around for them to do this again does not seem like a solid strategy. | |||
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| wishing we were congress |
It is definitely not just the average of the min and max. Try a few points and you can see that. I am not pretending to be an expert on this model. I tried to understand the derivation of the math, but didn't get too far. In general though where data has a lot of uncertainty it is common to report a "best estimate" and then values at the extremes for min and max. Perhaps each data point has a standard deviation estimate and that factors into generating the dotted line. long winded answer - but I don't know how they generated the dotted line xxxxxxxxx I just saw maladat's post above. I think he is probably right xxxxxxxxxxxxxx tatortodd - your post on the previous page very accurately captured my feelings | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
^Thank you. And thank you maladat for your response. It makes more sense to me now. | |||
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| 10mm is The Boom of Doom  |
COVID Voice Detector https://cvd.lti.cmu.edu/cvd/login I tried it and I think I am low probability. The result display is a bit lacking. I suspect that it would be most useful in tracking changes in a persons voice. So for example, I test this morning and have low probability, but in three days my probability goes up, and then in three days up again. That may be more telling. I'm sure the FDA will require them to add screening criteria to stop most people from taking it and a 7 day wait for results. That seems to be their modus operandi. Enjoy it while you can. Coronavirus Detected By Voice? Carnegie Mellon Researchers Develop App To ‘Listen’ For Signs Of COVID-19 March 31, 2020 at 2:20 pmFiled Under:Carnegie Mellon University, CMU, Coronavirus, Coronavirus App, Coronavirus In Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.co...ronavirus-voice-app/ PITTSBURGH (KDKA) — Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University say they have created an app that can determine whether you might have COVID-19, just by analyzing your voice. The team of CMU researchers in Pittsburgh say the app is just in its beginning stages, and has not been approved by the FDA or CDC. “I’ve seen a lot of competition for the cheapest, fastest diagnosis you can have,” said Benjamin Striner, a Carnegie Mellon graduate student who worked on the project, in an interview with Futurism. “And there are some pretty good ones that are actually really cheap and pretty accurate, but nothing’s ever going to be as cheap and as easy as speaking into a phone.” You can use the COVID Voice Detector now to analyze your voice for signs of infection, but researchers it shouldn’t be solely used as a substitute for a medical test or examination. Carnegie Mellon professor Bhiksha Raj, who also worked on the project, told Futurism, “we have it out there to let people know how it currently performs, but the primary objective of our effort/website at this point of time is to collect large numbers of voice recordings that we could use to refine the algorithm into something we — and the medical community — are confident about.” The team believes the app could be a valuable tool in tracking the spread of the virus, especially as they collect more data. “If the app is to be put out as a public service, it, and our results, will have to be verified by medical professionals, and attested by an agency such as the CDC,” Raj added. “Until that happens, it’s still very much an experimental and untrustworthy system.” Researchers conclude that it’s unlikely the app will ever be as accurate as a lab test. The app works like this: if you have a smartphone or a computer with a microphone, users are prompted to cough several times and record a number of vowel sounds, as well as reciting the alphabet. Then it provides a score, expressed as a download-style progress bar, representing how likely the algorithm believes it is that the user has COVID-19. To use the COVID Voice Detector app, click here. God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump. | |||
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| It's not you, it's me.  |
My buddy who’s a Marine and nurse in PA said that “Shit has Hit the Fan” in his hospital. He’s a very level headed guy and last night admitted his opinion of the virus changed from “no big deal” to “oh shit.” | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
I'm no fan of Whitmer, but, if you read the referenced article, it does indeed look like it was a miscommunication. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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| Something wild is loose  |
You're very welcome, and glad to share. There are lots of things about this virus that are unique, and in my opinion accidents of natural mutation. Its protein coat is what allows it to be so infective, the product of one gene in its makeup. That single gene is what allowed it to cross species and infect humans, very successfully. It's more likely, also my opinion, that the coding for that protein (which was just random to begin with) is more likely in subsequent random changes - happening all the time in its replication - to change its ability to connect with a human cell. And more importantly,without making the virion less viable - it just wouldn't "know" it was less infective, and would then be more successful in living in the animal population from whence it came. Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus. "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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Optimistic Cynic |
You mean like April 1 comes the day after 3/31? | |||
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| Run Silent Run Deep  |
So Just read that we had 1000 deaths compared from yesterday (ARTICLE HERE) . So that tracks pretty well with this projection they gave...time will tell if it holds.  _____________________________ Pledge allegiance or pack your bag! The problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher Spread my work ethic, not my wealth | |||
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Lost |
As Maladat explained, the shaded areas are confidence intervals... | |||
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Void Where Prohibited |
That's assuming the lying commies would let us know they had something like that. "If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May. | |||
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| 10mm is The Boom of Doom |
Nuke 'em from orbit. It's the only way to be sure. God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump. | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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