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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Member
Picture of maladat
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Georgeair:
I’m sure they’ll be all over web today for our amusement. Could we please not do that?




(Obviously, this is not real, either.)
 
Posts: 6320 | Location: CA | Registered: January 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
posted Hide Post
UC Tells Students "Do Not" Say "Chinese Virus" (And "Do Not Allow" Others To Say It Either)

The Council of Chief Diversity Officers at the University of California released a “guidance document” to announce “supportive positive and inclusive campus climates during the COVID-19 crisis.”

The list begins by telling students to “reject racism, sexism, xenophobia and all hateful or intolerant speech, both in person and online,” and to “Be an ‘up-stander,’ and discourage others from engaging in such behavior.”

“Do not use terms such as ‘Chinese Virus’ or other terms which cast either intentional or unintentional projections of hatred toward Asian communities, and do not allow the use of these terms by others,” the university tells students and faculty, insisting that all members of the campus community refer to the virus as only “COVID-19” OR “coronavirus” in all “oral and written communications.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...others-say-it-either



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 24868 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie
Picture of Balzé Halzé
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I legitimately call it the Wuhan or Wuhan Virus whenever the subject comes up. I noticed most here have even taken to falling into the media, WHO, and chinese propaganda of calling it Covid or Covid-19.

I'll continue to call it the Wuhan.


~Alan

Acta Non Verba
NRA Life Member (Patron)
God, Family, Guns, Country

Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan

 
Posts: 31166 | Location: Elv. 7,000 feet, Utah | Registered: October 29, 2012Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:

The dotted line is "best estimate".




Are you sure the dotted line isn't just an average or midpoint line?

It reminds me of the line in the 3 and 5 day hurricane path projections. People focus one the line, but it means nothing. The path of the hurricane could be anywhere within the circles and the line just represents the midpoint.
 
Posts: 11995 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by 2000Z-71:
quote:

I'm glad Alaska decided that liquor stores were essential. There's no way we could handle Anchorage going into withdrawal with everything else we're dealing with in the ER.


I have watched enough Alaska State Troopers to know that alcohol is second only to firearms on the list of an Alaskan's daily necessities.
 
Posts: 2690 | Location: Baltimore | Registered: October 22, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Go ahead punk, make my day
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by AirmanJeff:
I have watched enough Alaska State Troopers to know that alcohol is second only to firearms on the list of an Alaskan's daily necessities.
Followed closely in 3rd with porn.
 
Posts: 45798 | Registered: July 12, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of maladat
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by trapper189:
Are you sure the dotted line isn't just an average or midpoint line?

It reminds me of the line in the 3 and 5 day hurricane path projections. People focus one the line, but it means nothing. The path of the hurricane could be anywhere within the circles and the line just represents the midpoint.


The way this type of model is usually presented, the line is the exact estimate produced by the model, and the shaded area is the 95% confidence or uncertainty interval (based on error estimation, the range of values they calculate has a 95% probability of containing the true outcome).

They don't explicitly describe the charts that way anywhere that I can find, but they do describe some of the results that way:

quote:
Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.


From http://www.healthdata.org/rese...ator-days-and-deaths
 
Posts: 6320 | Location: CA | Registered: January 24, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
imagine how society would crumble if the next one China releases has a much higher kill rate.

That depends. If it's more deadly, it'll be more deadly in China first which means we're more likely to get a more dramatic heads-up and therefore more likely to institute more aggressive measures earlier.
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
My theory and opinion only, and I'm lonesome among associates.

It's still nice to get an educated sense of what may be happening.


I think our response to this gift from China needs to be much more significant in nature - waiting around for them to do this again does not seem like a solid strategy.
 
Posts: 4979 | Registered: April 20, 2010Reply With QuoteReport This Post
wishing we
were congress
posted Hide Post
quote:
Are you sure the dotted line isn't just an average or midpoint line?


It is definitely not just the average of the min and max. Try a few points and you can see that.

I am not pretending to be an expert on this model. I tried to understand the derivation of the math, but didn't get too far.

In general though where data has a lot of uncertainty it is common to report a "best estimate" and then values at the extremes for min and max. Perhaps each data point has a standard deviation estimate and that factors into generating the dotted line.

long winded answer - but I don't know how they generated the dotted line

xxxxxxxxx

I just saw maladat's post above. I think he is probably right

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

tatortodd - your post on the previous page very accurately captured my feelings
 
Posts: 19759 | Registered: July 21, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
posted Hide Post
^Thank you. And thank you maladat for your response. It makes more sense to me now.
 
Posts: 11995 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
10mm is The
Boom of Doom
Picture of Fenris
posted Hide Post
COVID Voice Detector
https://cvd.lti.cmu.edu/cvd/login
I tried it and I think I am low probability. The result display is a bit lacking.
I suspect that it would be most useful in tracking changes in a persons voice. So for example, I test this morning and have low probability, but in three days my probability goes up, and then in three days up again. That may be more telling.

I'm sure the FDA will require them to add screening criteria to stop most people from taking it and a 7 day wait for results. That seems to be their modus operandi.

Enjoy it while you can.

Coronavirus Detected By Voice? Carnegie Mellon Researchers Develop App To ‘Listen’ For Signs Of COVID-19
March 31, 2020 at 2:20 pmFiled Under:Carnegie Mellon University, CMU, Coronavirus, Coronavirus App, Coronavirus In Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.co...ronavirus-voice-app/

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) — Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University say they have created an app that can determine whether you might have COVID-19, just by analyzing your voice.

The team of CMU researchers in Pittsburgh say the app is just in its beginning stages, and has not been approved by the FDA or CDC.

“I’ve seen a lot of competition for the cheapest, fastest diagnosis you can have,” said Benjamin Striner, a Carnegie Mellon graduate student who worked on the project, in an interview with Futurism. “And there are some pretty good ones that are actually really cheap and pretty accurate, but nothing’s ever going to be as cheap and as easy as speaking into a phone.”

You can use the COVID Voice Detector now to analyze your voice for signs of infection, but researchers it shouldn’t be solely used as a substitute for a medical test or examination.

Carnegie Mellon professor Bhiksha Raj, who also worked on the project, told Futurism, “we have it out there to let people know how it currently performs, but the primary objective of our effort/website at this point of time is to collect large numbers of voice recordings that we could use to refine the algorithm into something we — and the medical community — are confident about.”

The team believes the app could be a valuable tool in tracking the spread of the virus, especially as they collect more data.

“If the app is to be put out as a public service, it, and our results, will have to be verified by medical professionals, and attested by an agency such as the CDC,” Raj added. “Until that happens, it’s still very much an experimental and untrustworthy system.”

Researchers conclude that it’s unlikely the app will ever be as accurate as a lab test.

The app works like this: if you have a smartphone or a computer with a microphone, users are prompted to cough several times and record a number of vowel sounds, as well as reciting the alphabet. Then it provides a score, expressed as a download-style progress bar, representing how likely the algorithm believes it is that the user has COVID-19.

To use the COVID Voice Detector app, click here.




God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump.
 
Posts: 17610 | Location: Northern Virginia | Registered: November 08, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
It's not you,
it's me.
Picture of RAMIUS
posted Hide Post
My buddy who’s a Marine and nurse in PA said that “Shit has Hit the Fan” in his hospital.

He’s a very level headed guy and last night admitted his opinion of the virus changed from “no big deal” to “oh shit.”
 
Posts: 7016 | Location: Right outside Philly | Registered: September 08, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by sdy:
Remember Mich Gov Whitmer threatening doctors who prescribed hydroxychloroquine ?

Whitmer has now sent a ltr to the federal govt asking for hydroxyxchloroquine to help coronavirus patients.

It was all a "miscommunication".

https://www.metrotimes.com/new...uine-and-chloroquine

I'm no fan of Whitmer, but, if you read the referenced article, it does indeed look like it was a miscommunication.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26031 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by slosig:

ETA:

quote:
Original posted by Doc H.:
... [ snip ] ...
Hence may be unstable, and one of its 15 genes could lose its surface protein code, or have its effectiveness significantly reduced in being able to lock onto human cell receptors after millions of generations. Hence may diverge in the next wave to something less transmissible, or lethal. My theory and opinion only, and I'm lonesome among associates. But we'll know in a few weeks, one way or another.


Thank you for your continued sharing of knowledge and reason. Dumb question: If it is possible the virus can change becoming less transmissible or less lethal, is it also possible that it could become more transmissible or more lethal?

I’m hoping the answer is a flat ”No.” or at least “Theoretically, yes it is possible, but it improbable and much less likely than it becoming less dangerous.” but I have no clue, so I thought I’d ask. Thanks again!


You're very welcome, and glad to share. There are lots of things about this virus that are unique, and in my opinion accidents of natural mutation. Its protein coat is what allows it to be so infective, the product of one gene in its makeup. That single gene is what allowed it to cross species and infect humans, very successfully. It's more likely, also my opinion, that the coding for that protein (which was just random to begin with) is more likely in subsequent random changes - happening all the time in its replication - to change its ability to connect with a human cell. And more importantly,without making the virion less viable - it just wouldn't "know" it was less infective, and would then be more successful in living in the animal population from whence it came. Likely will take several weeks to see an effect, but the visible data would be a dramatic dropoff of infections, and fewer hospitalizations for those who are infected. As noted in the briefings, everything we seeing in the news or from data has a lag - deaths tomorrow will be from infections last week, so almost certainly more bad news for the next month. But I really believe this may turn the corner as a result of this really integral structure of the virus.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Optimistic Cynic
Picture of architect
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
quote:
I wish I had seen this earlier and was able to post before stores closed for the evening.

Yeah, sometimes timing is everything.
You mean like April 1 comes the day after 3/31?
 
Posts: 6934 | Location: NoVA | Registered: July 22, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Run Silent
Run Deep

Picture of Patriot
posted Hide Post
So Just read that we had 1000 deaths compared from yesterday (ARTICLE HERE) . So that tracks pretty well with this projection they gave...time will tell if it holds.





_____________________________
Pledge allegiance or pack your bag!
The problem with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. - Margaret Thatcher
Spread my work ethic, not my wealth
 
Posts: 7102 | Location: South East, Pa | Registered: July 04, 2002Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lost
Picture of kkina
posted Hide Post
As Maladat explained, the shaded areas are confidence intervals...




ACCU-STRUT FOR MINI-14
"First, Eyes."
 
Posts: 17221 | Location: SF Bay Area | Registered: December 11, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Void Where Prohibited
Picture of WaterburyBob
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Graniteguy:
quote:
Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
quote:
Originally posted by Fenris:
imagine how society would crumble if the next one China releases has a much higher kill rate.

That depends. If it's more deadly, it'll be more deadly in China first which means we're more likely to get a more dramatic heads-up and therefore more likely to institute more aggressive measures earlier.
quote:
Originally posted by Doc H.:
My theory and opinion only, and I'm lonesome among associates.

It's still nice to get an educated sense of what may be happening.


I think our response to this gift from China needs to be much more significant in nature - waiting around for them to do this again does not seem like a solid strategy.

That's assuming the lying commies would let us know they had something like that.



"If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards
 
Posts: 16723 | Location: Under the Boot of Tyranny in Connectistan | Registered: February 02, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Savor the limelight
posted Hide Post
Looking at the IHME projections for Florida, New York, and Michigan, one thing that strikes me as odd is both New York and Michigan are done 1 month from today while Florida is done 3 months from today. Why the prolonged projection in Florida? My dad might be right to keep his plan to go to Michigan in May.
 
Posts: 11995 | Location: SWFL | Registered: October 10, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
10mm is The
Boom of Doom
Picture of Fenris
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
quote:
Originally posted by Graniteguy:
I think our response to this gift from China needs to be much more significant in nature - waiting around for them to do this again does not seem like a solid strategy.

That's assuming the lying commies would let us know they had something like that.

Nuke 'em from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.




God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump.
 
Posts: 17610 | Location: Northern Virginia | Registered: November 08, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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