quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

You’re assuming 100% of those who test positive have the disease, which is incorrect. A disease is a set of symptoms, not necessarily whether someone has a pathogen (above a detection limit)... as some will progress and others won’t. Not to be confused with false positives and false negatives, which is about the diagnostic test’s accuracy and precision, respectively.

If one uses a moving average (disease progressors vs non-progressors), it provides you with a reasonable estimate of mortality. 60% are asymptomatic, some of whom will ultimately get the disease and some won’t but the moving average corrects for this. So take 19,375/0.6 = approximate population estimate that currently carries the virus (assuming that asymptomatc people aren’t being tested for no reason), which equals approximately 32,392 individuals. Divide 256 by that figure... and you arrive at 0.8% apparent mortality rate at this time, the same quoted by the WH.

As far as I know, the reported numbers are for people who test positive, and I have read a bunch of different places that asymptomatic individuals can still infect others, so I'm not sure why the first distinction matters. Sure, the tests not being perfect is another source of error, too.

Your calculation still doesn't account for the fact that many of the total cases will eventually die, they just haven't yet because they haven't been sick long enough.

I wasn't trying to derive an accurate mortality rate, just point out a couple of significant sources of uncertainty in estimating it from deaths/total cases.

For that matter, your method assumes every single symptomatic case is a confirmed case, which almost certainly isn't true. One study that was published estimated that prior to instituting travel restrictions in China there were 6 undetected cases for every confirmed case.

The article had to do with tracking movement of the virus. Like following fingerprints.

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Originally posted by Opus Dei:

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Originally posted by fpuhan:

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Originally posted by highroundcount:
Don't know if the decisions the politicians are making are right or wrong.

I do know that if this virus disappeared tomorrow the economic damage will already be done.

I can't help but think a lot of people are going to be thinking, great, I survived the virus...............but I have no job, no home, no business, no retirement. The economy will be a shit show for the foreseeable future.

It sucks but life throws disease and death at us all the time. Always has, always will.

But the economic fallout from this is all on the politicians creating these policies.

Strong economy sure was nice while it lasted.............

I can't help but feel that politicians, being politicians, are (in the words of Rahm Emmanuel) "not letting a crisis go to waste." I actually believe that that some are using this pandemic to further their agenda, which includes abrogating our rights. No one has ever indicated when the end will occur, and what will happen then. I speculate that we've again lost some of freedom, and we won't get it back unless we fight for it.

Agreed. What I am concerned about this becoming the template for future crises-real or imagined.

Just take a look at what's happening? Everything going on in Washington and many local governments is a damned leftist wet dream. It's the Green Flu Deal for chrissakes! No one's driving anywhere, no one's flying, people are going to get cash straight from the government, freedoms are disappearing, many private businesses are no doubt going to be shuddered or have to rely on the government for survival...

But yeah, let's keep at it. Insanity.

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Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by Woodman:
Today I read the virus genome is a 30,000-letter string that changes at the rate of one letter every 15 days.

But, do you know what the significance is of that "fact"?

It may change, but that does not mean it is a whole new threat or becoming another strain.

Sort of like a person having children, who have children, who have children, and so forth, and after time, you look at the DNA of a child many generations removed from the first person, and are able to trace back the history, of where the original person was, and that "later child" and determine progress and origin.

First, we & the authors you’re quoting need to understand the conditions under which mutation occurs. I don’t care if it’s a virus, bacteria, your grandmother or a blue whale - natural selection plays a role in determining whether a mutation successfully allows for survival & replication. Some mutations will be self terminating, others will create greater virulence but survival/replication is environmentally influenced. Many mutations will occur in non-coding regions (non-translational as coronaviruses aren’t retroviruses) & this will have no impact on the proteins generated. A huge influence is cell attachment, penetration and (human) immune recognition of potential epitomes, which mutations may or may not influence. One of the reasons the flu has a more substantial presence, is its rate of successful mutation and the resulting success in strain variants.

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Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:

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Your giving stats in hindsight. No one knew at the beginnings of these outbreaks how severe or deadly they would be. The early numbers on swine flu were actually quite alarming.

So bear with me for a moment. No that we DO know how severe and deadly it can be, why are so many people fighting the steps the doctors are telling us that are needed to stop it?

The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

The CFR doesn't account for the undetected cases, it's true, but it also doesn't account for the people who are still sick.

In the US, right now there are 19,375 reported cases and 256 reported deaths. 256 / 19375 * 100 = 1.32%

However, there are also only 147 reported recoveries. You wouldn't say the recovery rate is 147 / 19,375 * 100 = 0.76%.

Of the confirmed cases in the US for which the patient isn't sick anymore, 256 / (256 + 147 ) * 100 = 63.5% have died and 36.5% have gotten better.

I'm certainly not suggesting that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 63.5%, just that dividing deaths by total cases doesn't tell the whole story. Just as there is uncertainty because some of the total cases will die in the future (raising the mortality rate) there is uncertainty because not all cases are detected (lowering the mortality rate).

The big open question is how many cases are going undetected.

You’re assuming 100% of those who test positive have the disease, which is incorrect. A disease is a set of symptoms, not necessarily whether someone has a pathogen (above a detection limit)... as some will progress and others won’t. Not to be confused with false positives and false negatives, which is about the diagnostic test’s accuracy and precision, respectively.

If one uses a moving average (disease progressors vs non-progressors), it provides you with a reasonable estimate of mortality. 60% are asymptomatic, some of whom will ultimately get the disease and some won’t but the moving average corrects for this. So take 19,375/0.6 = approximate population estimate that currently carries the virus (assuming that asymptomatc people aren’t being tested for no reason), which equals approximately 32,392 individuals. Divide 256 by that figure... and you arrive at 0.8% apparent mortality rate at this time, the same quoted by the WH.

As far as I know, the reported numbers are for people who test positive, and I have read a bunch of different places that asymptomatic individuals can still infect others, so I'm not sure why the first distinction matters. Sure, the tests not being perfect is another source of error, too.

Your calculation still doesn't account for the fact that many of the total cases will eventually die, they just haven't yet because they haven't been sick long enough.

I wasn't trying to derive an accurate mortality rate, just point out a couple of significant sources of uncertainty in estimating it from deaths/total cases.

For that matter, your method assumes every single symptomatic case is a confirmed case, which almost certainly isn't true. One study that was published estimated that prior to instituting travel restrictions in China there were 6 undetected cases for every confirmed case.

You didn’t understand what I was saying then b/c no one has a crystal ball and estimating progression is how clinical stats are performed for infectious diseases. Trusting any data from China at this point is foolhardy.

Watching CNN the evening. They show a clip of Governor Cuomo speaking about putting New York on lockdown. He says, "If everything we have done saves only one life, it will have all been worth it."

I have heard some dumb stuff on TV over the last week. That quote is not only the dumbest thing I have heard on TV over the last week, it might be one of the dumbest things I have heard in my 47 years on this earth.

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

Just take a look at what's happening? Everything going on in Washington and many local governments is a damned leftist wet dream. It's the Green Flu Deal for chrissakes! No one's driving anywhere, no one's flying, people are going to get cash straight from the government, freedoms are disappearing, many private businesses are no doubt going to be shuddered or have to rely on the government for survival...

But yeah, let's keep at it. Insanity.

So let's ignore it because it is a leftist wet dream?

On the flip side, I do like how the fed is pressuring the states to react and not wait for POTUS to step in.

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Originally posted by 6guns:

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:

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Originally posted by PowerSurge:
If you think this mess is Trump’s fault, absolutely.

I think he's blaming Trump "only" for the shutdown mania.

I don't blame President Trump for anything. I consider the best president we've ever had....in my lifetime anyway. I'm saying the leftists would create this mania again if President Trump were president. Period!

Yep. 6guns has always been a voice of reason.

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Originally posted by holdem:
Watching CNN the evening. They show a clip of Governor Cuomo speaking about putting New York on lockdown. He says, "If everything we have done saves only one life, it will have all been worth it."

I have heard some dumb stuff on TV over the last week. That quote is not only the dumbest thing I have heard on TV over the last week, it might be one of the dumbest things I have heard in my 47 years on this earth.

Yeah, it's fucking ludicrous.

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Originally posted by holdem:
Watching CNN the evening. They show a clip of Governor Cuomo speaking about putting New York on lockdown. He says, "If everything we have done saves only one life, it will have all been worth it."

I have heard some dumb stuff on TV over the last week. That quote is not only the dumbest thing I have heard on TV over the last week, it might be one of the dumbest things I have heard in my 47 years on this earth.

I have been railing for years about what a dim bulb this fool is. I swear this all seems like posturing for a run in 2024. He has always been about the headline. I have posted many examples.

quote:

Originally posted by was0311:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

Just take a look at what's happening? Everything going on in Washington and many local governments is a damned leftist wet dream. It's the Green Flu Deal for chrissakes! No one's driving anywhere, no one's flying, people are going to get cash straight from the government, freedoms are disappearing, many private businesses are no doubt going to be shuddered or have to rely on the government for survival...

But yeah, let's keep at it. Insanity.

So let's ignore it because it is a leftist wet dream?

I never said we should simply ignore the virus.

On the flip side, I do like how the fed is pressuring the states to react and not wait for POTUS to step in.

Under the circumstances, Trump has been handling things well.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

As far as I know, the reported numbers are for people who test positive, and I have read a bunch of different places that asymptomatic individuals can still infect others, so I'm not sure why the first distinction matters. Sure, the tests not being perfect is another source of error, too.

Your calculation still doesn't account for the fact that many of the total cases will eventually die, they just haven't yet because they haven't been sick long enough.

I wasn't trying to derive an accurate mortality rate, just point out a couple of significant sources of uncertainty in estimating it from deaths/total cases.

For that matter, your method assumes every single symptomatic case is a confirmed case, which almost certainly isn't true. One study that was published estimated that prior to instituting travel restrictions in China there were 6 undetected cases for every confirmed case.

The Dr. during press briefing said that the positive test results on tests performed so far was 10%, so that means 90% of symptomatic people have some other respiratory illness or were tested due to exposure (but I don't think we are testing asymptomatic people yet).

Best we can do is either wait to see what final CFR is or look to those countries that had earlier and less contained approaches and see what their numbers trend towards.

Not a single one of knows how bad this thing is, but I suspect it's on the pretty damn bad side of the scale. Either way it's a barely educated guess.

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Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

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Originally posted by holdem:
Watching CNN the evening. They show a clip of Governor Cuomo speaking about putting New York on lockdown. He says, "If everything we have done saves only one life, it will have all been worth it."

I have heard some dumb stuff on TV over the last week. That quote is not only the dumbest thing I have heard on TV over the last week, it might be one of the dumbest things I have heard in my 47 years on this earth.

Yeah, it's fucking ludicrous.

Ruining millions of people's lives, or maybe 10's of millions is worth saving just one life. People are going to die in other ways from this lockdown, are their lives not worth something?

WTF!?!!?

I'm in the flatten the curve camp, but damn if we wrecked the economy over saving 5 or 10,000 lives I can't say it was worth it, and I'd include myself if I got the short straw on that bet.

Please stop with the nested quotes. Totally unncessary- and it annoys the admin.

Just quote the part you're addressing.

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I'm in the flatten the curve camp, but damn if we wrecked the economy over saving 5 or 10,000 lives I can't say it was worth it, and I'd include myself if I got the short straw on that bet.

Same here. Much of the containment is necessary.
However, much of the rest is over-reaction. Especially further depleting our future economy for temporary stimulus.
We can hunker down for 6-7 weeks and get past this.

"Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate."

L.A. County gives up on containing COVID-19, tells doctors to skip testing of some patients
https://ktla.com/news/local-ne...ng-of-some-patients/

The nation’s second-largest municipal health system has told its staff that it is essentially abandoning hope of containing the coronavirus outbreak and instructed doctors not to bother testing symptomatic patients if a positive result won’t change how they would be treated.

The guidance, sent by the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services to its doctors on Thursday, was prompted by a crush of patients and shortage of tests, and could make it difficult to ever know precisely how many people in L.A. County contracted the virus.

The department “is shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality,” according to the letter. Doctors should test symptomatic patients only when “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The guidance sets in writing what has been a reality all along. The shortage of tests nationwide has meant that many patients suspected of having COVID-19 have not had the diagnosis confirmed by a laboratory.

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Originally posted by DaBigBR:
"Everything we do after a pandemic will seem inadequate."

But only if the pandemic turns out as bad as the worst that is feared. If, however, it doesn’t turn out that bad (and because measures were taken to prevent its turning out that bad), then everything that was done will labeled as an hysterical overreaction. The Ebola epidemic was/is a perfect example of that. In Africa it was a terrible scourge whose effects can hardly be imagined. In the U.S., however, where it was relatively easy to prevent its spread, it’s a subject of juvenile jokes to this day.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
Please stop with the nested quotes. Totally unncessary- and it annoys the admin.

Just quote the part you're addressing.

Sorry. Will do.

If anyone's looking for good news...
I would say that it appears that the number of new cases in Washington State seems to be starting to level off.
That's where this all got started in the US.