quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
Although this may seem like sarcasm, it really isn’t.

I keep reading about all the people who die from seasonal flu, not to mention everything else that kills us but which don’t generate the sorts of concerns and draconian measures that this virus has. Those comparisons are of course valid, so why do we care about a death rate that may be higher, but is still part of the human condition?

So if we determine the death rate for Corona isn't much higher than our normal flu then can we just flip a switch and open everything up? If 15000 deaths are acceptable for flu and 370000 for auto accidents what is the number we are ok with for this new disease?

Those that over-react, enforce one-size-fits-all mandates become incapable of solving problems, only maintaining the current misery.

So we have to be strong enough and brave enough for commerce to flow. If we aren’t then stay out of the way of healthy, low-risk people taking real risks necessary to keep the lights on, the sewers functioning and the food supply from collapsing.

Celebrate that guy behind the meat counter or restocking the shelves. Because the life he saves may be yours and vice versa.

Yes, some people will make the wrong choice, but most won’t. Stop using them as straw men to grind your political axe. Old habits die hard but guess what? You’re not an old dog.

We’re moving into that dangerous area of zero tolerance which implies maximum costs for marginal net benefits.

Striking the necessary balance to keep our communities alive is how we best fight back against this threat — the government overreach or the virus itself.

Top down order separates us from our greatest strength, our ability to try new things, solve new problems and turn what is into what will be.

It means keeping your opinions tempered, your humility high and finding ways to solve real problems that alleviate current and potential suffering.

It means realizing you don’t have all the answers, and pretending like you do is literally a matter of life and death.

The economy isn’t some big aggregate thing. That’s the fundamental flaw of all dominant economic thinking, these concepts of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. They don’t exist. They aren’t real.

We talk about them like they are but they aren’t. They are pale and unfocused reflection of trillions of small decisions taken by billions of people everyday.

And no matter how much you try to model reality by looking at the big numbers, the reality is that you only see things through the densest of fog, near blind and full of hubris.

This is the central flaw in all forms of central planning, the lack of specific knowledge to come up with the right policy decisions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...-now-world-gets-real

quote:

Originally posted by holdem:
... They show a clip of Governor Cuomo speaking about putting New York on lockdown. He says, "If everything we have done saves only one life, it will have all been worth it."

REALLY! So you'll lock motor vehicles out of Manhattan to save the lives of bicyclists and pedestrians?

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

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Originally posted by Opus Dei:

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Originally posted by fpuhan:

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Originally posted by highroundcount:
Don't know if the decisions the politicians are making are right or wrong.

I do know that if this virus disappeared tomorrow the economic damage will already be done.

I can't help but think a lot of people are going to be thinking, great, I survived the virus...............but I have no job, no home, no business, no retirement. The economy will be a shit show for the foreseeable future.

It sucks but life throws disease and death at us all the time. Always has, always will.

But the economic fallout from this is all on the politicians creating these policies.

Strong economy sure was nice while it lasted.............

I can't help but feel that politicians, being politicians, are (in the words of Rahm Emmanuel) "not letting a crisis go to waste." I actually believe that that some are using this pandemic to further their agenda, which includes abrogating our rights. No one has ever indicated when the end will occur, and what will happen then. I speculate that we've again lost some of freedom, and we won't get it back unless we fight for it.

Agreed. What I am concerned about this becoming the template for future crises-real or imagined.

Just take a look at what's happening? Everything going on in Washington and many local governments is a damned leftist wet dream. It's the Green Flu Deal for chrissakes! No one's driving anywhere, no one's flying, people are going to get cash straight from the government, freedoms are disappearing, many private businesses are no doubt going to be shuddered or have to rely on the government for survival...

But yeah, let's keep at it. Insanity.

I agree with everything here! You all took the words out of my mouth.

I agree w sigfreund's post. We can't / won't stay in wide spread lock down for weeks and weeks.

Americans won't tolerate it.
The economy and businesses will be destroyed by am extensive "stay home" policy for a long period of time.
Too many people will quickly run out of money w no income.

I am focusing a lot of my attention on NY City.

It looks like the first instance of our medical care capacity being significantly over whelmed could be in NY City.

The difference with coronavirus as compared to previous flu epidemics is that large numbers of patients will need hospital and respirator support to survive. And that special care is likely to be needed in a short time span of several weeks because the disease is spreading so fast.

Triage in this epidemic will trigger some major issues in our health care policy. In war time, triage can be based on treating those most likely to survive. Most people understand the logic of that.

NY City has an illegal population of about 600,000. What happens if older U.S. citizens are denied treatment because of their age, while treatment is provided to illegals ?

This is a fundamental issue that has been almost completely ignored in the discussion of "health care is a right" for all. There are many instances where our ability to provide care is limited. How to allocate the limited resources is a very difficult challenge.

Thomas Sowell said it very well:

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.”

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
Thomas Sowell said it very well:

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity ...

A few more excellent T.S. quotes:

Socialism in general has a record of failure so blatant that only an intellectual could ignore or evade it.

It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance.

Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good.

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Originally posted by r0gue:

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Originally posted by benny6:... If my job shuts down and I get laid off and I can't pay the loan off, they'll cash me out for the remaining balance OF WHAT IT'S WORTH TODAY!!!

If that happens, often you can maintain the account in their plan or rollover into an IRA. Just buy the same funds and you'll be back in (this scary market) at the same price.

Yup. Just because you leave a job, it doesn't necessarily mean you have to clear out of your 401K plan there. I retired 2-1/2 years ago and just in January rolled the remainder of my 401K over into our retirement account. (Luckily, rolled it over into cash while the market was still hot, and left it there.)

https://townhall.com/columnist...navirus-war-n2565338

Pat Buchanan’s column for the week on this. The last few paragraphs seem to be what will be the reaction by the public. And then when the American citizenry starts to ignore the “orders”, what will the politicians do?

“A prediction: The longer the orders to shelter in place and self-isolate remain in force, the greater the probability they will begin to be ignored and people will take the risks to end their isolation and be with friends.

Will Americans suffer in social isolation, inside their own homes for months, while a state-induced Great Depression washes over the land?

My guess is that many will rebel.”

My sister in law is a RN in a medium size hospital in Florida. They have numerous suspected patients. Of course, no testing because the govt dropped the ball, so suspected at this time. They are using fans and duct tape to sorta create negative pressure rooms.

As of today they have completely ran out face mask and protective gowns. They have gloves. That's it. A medium size hospital, in America, on March 21st, very early in this pandemic, and they have already ran out of protective gear for their staff.

My sister in law is completely fed up. She told us that she is resigning her position today, at the end of her shift.

One part time, as needed PRN nurse friend of my sister in law said she wasn't coming back to work a few days ago. The hospital offered her $2000 per 12 hour shift in pay to come back! She came back.

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Originally posted by sdy:
I agree w sigfreund's post. We can't / won't stay in wide spread lock down for weeks and weeks.

I don't believe it was ever meant to be "for weeks and weeks." My guess is it was meant to be for a couple weeks and then see where we are. I base that guess on the fact that the longest time SARS-CoV-2 lives on any surface is alleged to be 14 days. Same for its max incubation period.

So if the measures taken are effective, we should start seeing a reduction in new cases reported in about another week. If that obtains, I can see incrementally opening things back up, while keeping a close eye on infection rate.

That's the way I'd do it, anyway.

Yes I believe you are right. They DO want people to get infected and get this shit behind us, but they dont want everybody to get infected at the same time. So honestly these slow down measures will probably be with us for a very long time. This could realistically go on for 6 months, 9 months, or more.

In WW2, the Japanese kicked the shit out of us in the pacific for the first year or so. Until American manufacturing could come online. Once the War machine was fully tooled up and kicking out massive amounts of war supplies, then the tide had turned. With Ford and Tesla and 3M and others coming online to ramp up manufacturing, its only a matter of time.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by sdy:
I agree w sigfreund's post. We can't / won't stay in wide spread lock down for weeks and weeks.

I don't believe it was ever meant to be "for weeks and weeks." My guess is it was meant to be for a couple weeks and then see where we are. I base that guess on the fact that the longest time SARS-CoV-2 lives on any surface is alleged to be 14 days. Same for its max incubation period.

So if the measures taken are effective, we should start seeing a reduction in new cases reported in about another week. If that obtains, I can see incrementally opening things back up, while keeping a close eye on infection rate.

That's the way I'd do it, anyway.

The problem is that without either an aggressive testing and exposure tracking program like Singapore or South Korea or an effective vaccine, the spread will just ramp right back up.

Either you'd be stuck with repeatedly shutting everything down to let the numbers drop, over and over, which might be more destructive than just keeping things shut down, or you just let it go, in which case you might as well never have shut things down in the first place.

Read a stat on the CDC website last night that claimed that of the 2.4 million Americans that die annually, 6.8% of those deaths are attributed directly to lower respiratory infections and another 4.8% are attributed to chronic pulmonary disease.

That's 1:9 every year since tracking of this stat began in 1980.

Just some perspective here.

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The problem is that without either an aggressive testing and exposure tracking program like Singapore or South Korea or an effective vaccine, the spread will just ramp right back up.

Of course it will increase once drastic measures are reduced. But, hopefully, it buys time for hospitals to prepare so doctors and nurses don't all quit as illustrated by bubbatime on the previous page:

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My sister in law is completely fed up. She told us that she is resigning her position today, at the end of her shift.

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Originally posted by maladat:
The problem is that without either an aggressive testing and exposure tracking program like Singapore or South Korea or an effective vaccine, the spread will just ramp right back up.

Testing is getting better, if Trump & Co. are to be believed.

Also, don't forget effective treatment of infected individuals will also have an impact. If any one of the things being looked into atm are indeed effective, we won't have to worry so much about healthcare system overload, even if infection rates do ramp back up.

I believe that may be the other part of the reason for the "breather": To give the medical community time to find mitigating treatments.

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
The problem is that without either an aggressive testing and exposure tracking program like Singapore or South Korea or an effective vaccine, the spread will just ramp right back up.

Testing is getting better, if Trump & Co. are to be believed.

Also, don't forget effective treatment of infected individuals will also have an impact. If any one of the things being looked into atm are indeed effective, we won't have to worry so much about healthcare system overload, even if infection rates do ramp back up.

I believe that may be the other part of the reason for the "breather": To give the medical community time to find mitigating treatments.

That's a good point, and hopefully some of the ongoing trials will produce effective treatments in a shorter timeframe than it is likely to take to develop vaccines, which would certainly improve the picture.

While some of the initial results are promising, and deserving of cautious optimism, all of those results are very preliminary. I know we've all seen "new miracle drug promises cure for XXXXXX" articles that don't amount to anything.

It does help a lot that many of those trials are for drugs that are already in use for other things, so we at least have an idea of their safety, side effects, drug interactions, etc.

March 21, 2020
Panic buying and hoarding – it’s not about the virus!

It seems that nearly every community, especially those that surround our big cities, has been plagued by panic-buying amidst the mass hysteria the media has whipped up around the Wuhan flu.

People are frantically buying toilet paper, for example, as though the companies which produce such items are about to be shuttered. They are not, but people are stocking up anyway. Are they all fearful of catching this flu? Maybe some of them are, which is why we are seeing face masks on people in lines to get into grocery stores. But the shelves are full by morning, thanks to the truckers who deliver the goods and the employees who work through the night to stock them.

But by afternoon, they are stripped bare – meat, produce, milk and eggs, all gone. It all seems so desperate until, as in New York, California, Illinois, and Connecticut, the governors of those states have shut their states down! They’ve ordered all sit-down restaurants closed and all other non-essential businesses closed. Many of these establishments cannot survive even two weeks without customers. They’ve put millions of their own citizens out of work with a snap of their fingers. They’ve ordered people to “shelter in place,” to stay home, cloistered away from all other human contact but close family.

Now all this planning and hoarding seems very smart. Each of these states have Democrat governors. These are the states with the most homelessness and the most ridiculous policies with regard to crime and the people who commit them; they are kind to criminals and thus cruel to their law-abiding citizens. Shutting everything down is just one more example of their inner authoritarianism.

Where else are we seeing long lines? At gun stores. For at least a week now, there have been long lines at every gun store in California. Why? Probably because these states are releasing felons from prisons in the name of the virus and announcing that they would not be arresting anyone who commits a non-violent crime. San Francisco has been operating on this premise for a long time now which is why their citizens suffer car break-ins by the minute. Many of those suffering from Covid-19 in that city are homeless - drug addicts and the mentally ill with a host of other health conditions. So it stands to reason that people who have never before thought they needed a means of defense at home believe they may need a weapon now. Not so dumb and not at all deranged. They are citizens who know their rights and do not trust those governing their states.

https://www.americanthinker.co...bout_the_virus_.html

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Each of these states have Democrat governors.

One of the leading instigators of shutting down the state and all the hysteria is Ohio's Republican Governor Dewine....

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Ohio's Republican Governor Dewine....

Authoritarianism does cross party lines... But it's more prevalent in the Dem states mentioned in the article.

Happy 2 months anniversary. I hope the medical machinery can catch up in time before the cases present larger numbers. Let's hope we reduced the R0 to at least less than 2 in the last couple weeks. Next week will (if not already) prove just how valuable all of our healthcare workers and everyone who supports them are. I'm not asking mail carriers to do anything other than support this effort. My Amazon shopping can take a break for a while.

The frog is just now realizing things are heating up a little