SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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Nullus Anxietas |
Which is 5,000 times less than the current estimates, and...
That works out to a CFR of 2.4% to 3.7% and...
2.9%. All about three orders of magnitude higher than your 0.0004% Do you have an explanation for this inconsistency? "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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| Moderator |
The Astros are hoping! __________________ "Owning a handgun doesn't make you armed any more than owning a guitar makes you a musician." -Jeff Cooper | |||
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| Go ahead punk, make my day |
You mean the 2017 World Champion Astros***  Asterisked for LIFE!!! | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money  |
The remainder of Spring Training just cancelled. My nephew was supposed to pitch tonight, but the team bus was turned back to Sarasota. "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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Sigforum K9 handler |
Because the infection rate is higher than reported, but people aren’t dying. Local medical are speculating that the virus has been here for months. (I know, speculation is a one way street here). A for instance- the Commonwealth of KY is only testing people in “high risk” groups. Presently, as of 5:10 PM EST yesterday, only 8 confirmed cases of 65 tests ran state wide. With no plans of wide spread testing being available until mid April. Even if you have the virus and go to a local hospital, you’re going to be treated for a viral infection, and released. | |||
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paradox in a box |
Corona virus likely killed at low temp like SARS (56 Celsius). But I don’t think it’s correct to say a dryer would kill any microbe. Dry heat is not as effective as moist heat. Microbial Sterilization at 121 degrees Celsius is only under moist heat and pressure. Bacterial spores can survive dry heat for a long time. This isn’t really about the corona virus but it can be useful to know. These go to eleven. | |||
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| Member |
I ordered two last night. My wife mocked me then went to Target with my daughter... where she saw with her own eyes a completely empty aisle where the TP once was stocked. My street cred went way up Ammo for the zombies, bidets for the tushies | |||
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Get Off My Lawn |
 We may have a general idea of deaths, the numerator, but have NO idea of the actual real cases, the denominator. Especially in places like China. This is why "death rates" and percentages are meaningless. "I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965 | |||
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| Member |
^^Along with the dryer, a good detergent with a non-chlorine bleach should help with laundry concerns. Was out picking up a few items used in the past week of my stash; no Lysol spray and one guy with six months supply of toilet paper, but little panic noted otherwise. Now if Austria is hit hard, and Glock production stops...then I'll freak!  | |||
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Funny Man |
When you dry a load of laundry doesn't it start and stay moist until the heat eventually dries the clothes. If you have ever interrupted a cycle you know it's very hot and steamy in a dryer through much of the cycle. ______________________________ “I'd like to know why well-educated idiots keep apologizing for lazy and complaining people who think the world owes them a living.” ― John Wayne | |||
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Lost |
Hmmm, I've seen it quoted numerous places that half an hour at the dryer's highest heat setting is the magic number. Here for instance. | |||
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| Lawyers, Guns and Money |
March 12, 2020 Since When Are Viruses Racist? By Brian C. Joondeph In the identity politics world of the progressive left, everything is racist. Using the pseudo-concept of intersectionality, all grievance groups overlap, except the groups of white, male, Christian, and heterosexual. The intersectionality of those four groups represents the ultimate in racism and bigotry, the scourge of civilization. In this mindset, it makes perfect sense for inanimate objects to be labeled as racist. For example, a “black hole” is now considered by some to be a racist term. Perhaps we should use “singularity,” since it’s so much easier for the average person to understand. Cold weather, air, dogs, solar eclipses, and farmers markets are also considered racist to the woke progressives. So, it’s no surprise that something so small that it cannot be seen with an ordinary microscope is also said to be racist. I speak of a virus, the “Wuhan virus,” to be specific. Or the “Chinese Coronavirus” to use another term. This virus is busy causing not a mass epidemic, but mass hysteria, leading people to empty store shelves of toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Also known as COVID-19, the Wuhan virus, like so many of its predecessors, is named based on where it was first identified, in this case, Wuhan, China. In an intellectually functional society, claiming a virus name is racist would be nonsensical. But in America, where thoughtful discussion is replaced by cliched outrage and common sense has been relegated to history books, the name “Wuhan virus” has become the latest trigger for the left. One of our congressional thought leaders, Rep. Ilhan Omar, tweeted out an accusation of racism after Rep. Kevin McCarthy referred to the virus as “Chinese Coronavirus.” Isn’t that where the virus originated? It’s not the Swedish or Bolivian Coronavirus. Rep. Omar had no similar outrage when a New York Times editorial writer called it the “Trumpvirus.” President Trump didn’t create the virus and it didn’t originate from one of his properties, but instead came from China. What’s wrong with calling it what it is? Speaking of the New York Times, they piled on as well, complaining that conservatives calling it the Wuhan virus is not only racist, but also xenophobic. How long until someone adds homophobic or sexist to the criticism?  Predictably CNN joined the chorus claiming “racism and xenophobia.” Salon was close behind with their caterwauling, “the racist art of naming a virus.” Viruses are tiny inanimate objects, consisting of a few strands of DNA or RNA, surrounded by a protein coat, measuring around 100 nanometers in size. They don’t wear white robes or march for “viral supremacy.” They infect individuals of all races, colors, sexes, religions, and national origin. Viruses don’t care where you were born. They aren’t concerned over what bathroom you prefer to use. Viruses don’t give a whit about your political party membership or whether you believe the earth is flat. Virus are among the least racist objects in our world. Yet in the left’s wokeness, virus names are racist. How have past viruses and similar infectious diseases been named? The Spanish flu of 1918-20 did not originate in Spain, but was first reported by Spain as they were neutral in World War I. But the name stuck and wasn’t considered racist. Rubella, also known as German measles, is a viral infection first described by a German physician in 1740, thus the name. Angela Merkel is a woke EU politician, but I haven’t heard her complain that German measles is racist or xenophobic. The Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976 near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo and was appropriately named after where it was found. A hemorrhagic fever virus similar to Ebola named Marburg was first recognized in 1967 in of all places, Marburg, Germany. MERS is the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, first reported in Saudi Arabia. When discovered in 2012 during the Obama administration, I don’t recall cries of racism or Islamophobia because the virus was identified with the Middle East, where it first appeared. The bubonic plague, technically a bacterial, not a viral, infection from the 14th century was called “black death” because black spots formed on the skin of those infected. Imagine if Don Lemon or Al Sharpton were alive then and how they would howl over the name “black death.” Swine flu, also known as H1N1, from 2009, was so named because people who caught it had direct contact with pigs. The animal rights groups were not offended at the time or hollering about “speciesism” over the use of the term “swine.” What would they say about “bird flu” or “chickenpox”? Smallpox is another horrific virus called “small” to distinguish it from syphilis, or the “great pox.” How long until short people cry “heightism” and claim the name “small” is discriminatory? Remember the Zika virus? This was discovered in 1947 in the Zika Forest in Uganda and named accordingly. Lyme disease, not a virus but instead a bacterial infection passed on through tick bites, was first recognized in 1975 after a number of children developed arthritis. Where were these children living at the time? Lyme, Connecticut, hence the name Lyme disease. Let’s continue. West Nile virus was first isolated in a woman in the West Nile district of Uganda in 1937 and was named as such. Rift Valley fever is a viral infection affecting humans and animals. It was first identified in 1931 as a sheep epidemic on a farm in the Rift Valley in Kenya, hence the name. Then there is Rocky Mountain spotted fever, not a virus, but like Lyme disease, a tickborne disease first recognized in 1986 in the Snake River Valley of Idaho -- which just so happens to be in the Rocky Mountains. Colorodans are sufficiently woke to have selected Bernie Sanders in the Democrat primary, but none are complaining about this infectious disease being named after their home in the Rocky Mountains. Many diseases and infections are named after who discovered them or where they were discovered. It’s as simple as that. Wuhan virus originated in Wuhan, not Tokyo, not Bangkok. To claim the name is racist is silly. Big media is pushing the story that, “Republicans face backlash over racist labeling of coronavirus.” But the reality is that this current viral outbreak started in Wuhan, China. The left deserves the backlash over shaming the country over politically correct nonsense. Calling it the Wuhan virus is accurate and scientifically appropriate, but certainly not racist. Read more: https://www.americanthinker.co...t.html#ixzz6GVB63xZy "Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible." -- Justice Janice Rogers Brown "The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth." -rduckwor | |||
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| Nullus Anxietas |
Wait... what? Previously the complaint was we couldn't trust anything reported out of China, now we can trust what's reported out of China, but not the others?
Yes, speculating. As opposed to hard numbers of those known to be infected and known deaths. Even then: Let us assume only one-in-ten infected are recorded for the stats I cited: That's still a CFR of 0.24% to 0.37% - 600 to 925 times that in Doc H's post. Still a significant discrepancy. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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Coin Sniper |
USA Hockey cancelled all events including States and Nationals. ACHA hockey cancelled the National Tournament. NHL just postponed the season. I talked to a nurse today who advised this is highly contagious. Breathing exhaled air from an infected person can transmit it. Any contact with that with air that then contacts eyes, nose, mouth can transmit the virus. Pronoun: His Royal Highness and benevolent Majesty of all he surveys 343 - Never Forget Its better to be Pavlov's dog than Schrodinger's cat There are three types of mistakes; Those you learn from, those you suffer from, and those you don't survive. | |||
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Member |
I've posted before in the flu vaccination threads that there have been many studies done that have shown that increased flu vaccination rates in school children reduce the rate of flu infection in the entire population, even demographic groups that have little direct contact with children. The reason is pretty obvious. Schools are a huge vector for spread of disease, and reducing the number of infections in the school doesn't just reduce exposures for the school children, it reduces exposures for EVERYONE ELSE, too, because there are fewer sick people in the overall population to be exposed to. Fewer sick school kids get fewer other people sick, and the fewer other sick people get fewer other, other people sick, and so on. | |||
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| wishing we were congress |
VDH on coronavirus https://townhall.com/columnist...-is-upon-us-n2564545 The Great Coronavirus War Is Upon Us conclusion: The battle is upon us. But if we stay calm and rational, we can easily defeat the enemy, whose reputation is likely far scarier than its reality. | |||
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| Sigforum K9 handler |
I think I know why you don’t see anyone here panicking. Until you realize the “hard numbers” are false, you’ll continue to act this way. 34 more times likely. | |||
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| Member |
If the CFR is 0.0004%, and 827 people have died in Italy, then the number of cases in Italy must be about: 827 / (0.0004 / 100) = 206,750,000 The entire population of Italy is about 60 million, so that would require every single person in Italy having been infected almost three and a half times. | |||
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| Peace through superior firepower  |
You guys are giving me a headache. | |||
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| Nullus Anxietas |
Now I'm confused. My argument of a few posts back was nobody here was panicking. I've argued that several times. So what point are you trying to make with this statement?
On what evidence do you base your assertion that the hard numbers are false? Because I can point you to the results of several analyses conducted by people who actually know something about epidemiology and statistical analysis to suggest they're not. Or is it simply that you're willing to accept China's numbers because they agree with your assumptions, but not the numbers of WHO and the CDC because they don't? Because it sure looks like that's what you're doing. And what do you mean by "act this way?" Citing evidence for my positions rather than arguing from vague assumptions? Shame on me!
Sorry, boss  I'll stop if you want."America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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