quote:

Originally posted by Sig209:

we need TARGETED efforts

-----------------------------------

That’s like aiming at the sky.

quote:

Originally posted by 6guns:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
If you think this mess is Trump’s fault, absolutely.

I think he's blaming Trump "only" for the shutdown mania.

I don't blame President Trump for anything. I consider the best president we've ever had....in my lifetime anyway. I'm saying the leftists would create this mania again if President Trump were president. Period!

Ah. That was not clear from your initial statement. Thanks for the clarification.

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:

quote:

Your giving stats in hindsight. No one knew at the beginnings of these outbreaks how severe or deadly they would be. The early numbers on swine flu were actually quite alarming.

So bear with me for a moment. No that we DO know how severe and deadly it can be, why are so many people fighting the steps the doctors are telling us that are needed to stop it?

The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

OK my fun meter is pegged.

7 years from retirement and all was looking good.
One in college and the youngest ready to start next year.
529’s were looking like both would get though college without being in debt.

Financially trashed now with no toilet paper.
Worked my butt off scrimping and saving, and now wondering why.

It’s time we put rules in place to keep society going and lock down those of high risk.

quote:

Originally posted by kimber1911:
OK my fun meter is pegged.

7 years from retirement and all was looking good.
One in college and the youngest ready to start next year.
529’s were looking like both would get though college without being in debt.

Financially trashed now with no toilet paper.
Worked my butt off scrimping and saving, and now wondering why.

It’s time we put rules in place to keep society going and lock down those of high risk.

I don't even want to know what my 401k looks like. I took out a loan too, so I still have to pay that back. If my job shuts down and I get laid off and I can't pay the loan off, they'll cash me out for the remaining balance OF WHAT IT'S WORTH TODAY!!!

That means I'll get peanuts since I know my 401k lost a significant amount of its value over the last few weeks. But I'll hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Lesson learned. Never take out a 401k loan....EVER! My job was stable but this took everyone by surprise.

Tony.

No emotion, don't want to debate. 3 dead here so far. Virus is spreading every day. Good news local we had 4 positives today make a full recovery. That's great news. If everyone can hold it together we'll see positive news soon.
^^^
Thank you for posting this. It seems the media does not post the number of recovered with any frequency. I gather you did not get to go to Hawaii. Keep up with the positive attitude.

I seen a segment last evening on a algorithm program that gathers symptom free body temperature from WiFi and Bluetooth thermometers. The program has a very good forecasting reputation for forecasting future influenza hot spots. The forecast map I saw had Florida flashing red and standing out as a future hotspot. This bears repeating this certainly was not a controlled study, but bears watching.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

But in about a year we'll know for sure that in all likelihood, this was a huge over-reaction.

HUGE.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

The CFR doesn't account for the undetected cases, it's true, but it also doesn't account for the people who are still sick.

In the US, right now there are 19,375 reported cases and 256 reported deaths. 256 / 19375 * 100 = 1.32%

However, there are also only 147 reported recoveries. You wouldn't say the recovery rate is 147 / 19,375 * 100 = 0.76%.

Of the confirmed cases in the US for which the patient isn't sick anymore, 256 / (256 + 147 ) * 100 = 63.5% have died and 36.5% have gotten better.

I'm certainly not suggesting that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 63.5%, just that dividing deaths by total cases doesn't tell the whole story. Just as there is uncertainty because some of the total cases will die in the future (raising the mortality rate) there is uncertainty because not all cases are detected (lowering the mortality rate).

The big open question is how many cases are going undetected.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: maladat,

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:

So bear with me for a moment. No that we DO know how severe and deadly it can be, why are so many people fighting the steps the doctors are telling us that are needed to stop it?

Yeah, man. You need to stay off of the 24/7 god awful news.

I mean for chrissakes, why is this garbage being pushed in my notification? The only reason to report this bullshit is to scare people.

^^^^^^
I agree. Ridiculous reporting.

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

But in about a year we'll know for sure that in all likelihood, this was a huge over-reaction.

HUGE.

But not if you look at what happened in Italy. Thousands dead or some such thing. There is no reason to believe that would not happen here, only our numbers would be larger since we're a larger population.

We may never know the numbers from China, but the pictures of the emergency rooms overflowing was not a good scene.

My entire state only has a limited number of those ventilator things. They will be tied up fast.

Don't know if the decisions the politicians are making are right or wrong.

I do know that if this virus disappeared tomorrow the economic damage will already be done.

I can't help but think a lot of people are going to be thinking, great, I survived the virus...............but I have no job, no home, no business, no retirement. The economy will be a shit show for the foreseeable future.

It sucks but life throws disease and death at us all the time. Always has, always will.

But the economic fallout from this is all on the politicians creating these policies.

Strong economy sure was nice while it lasted.............

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

But in about a year we'll know for sure that in all likelihood, this was a huge over-reaction.

HUGE.

Disagree on the overreaction part. But it will be like discussing '80's economic policies and debated for eternity.

quote:

Originally posted by highroundcount:
Don't know if the decisions the politicians are making are right or wrong.

I do know that if this virus disappeared tomorrow the economic damage will already be done.

I can't help but think a lot of people are going to be thinking, great, I survived the virus...............but I have no job, no home, no business, no retirement. The economy will be a shit show for the foreseeable future.

It sucks but life throws disease and death at us all the time. Always has, always will.

But the economic fallout from this is all on the politicians creating these policies.

Strong economy sure was nice while it lasted.............

I can't help but feel that politicians, being politicians, are (in the words of Rahm Emmanuel) "not letting a crisis go to waste." I actually believe that that some are using this pandemic to further their agenda, which includes abrogating our rights. No one has ever indicated when the end will occur, and what will happen then. I speculate that we've again lost some of freedom, and we won't get it back unless we fight for it.

Today I read the virus genome is a 30,000-letter string that changes at the rate of one letter every 15 days.

quote:

Originally posted by fpuhan:

quote:

Originally posted by highroundcount:
Don't know if the decisions the politicians are making are right or wrong.

I do know that if this virus disappeared tomorrow the economic damage will already be done.

I can't help but think a lot of people are going to be thinking, great, I survived the virus...............but I have no job, no home, no business, no retirement. The economy will be a shit show for the foreseeable future.

It sucks but life throws disease and death at us all the time. Always has, always will.

But the economic fallout from this is all on the politicians creating these policies.

Strong economy sure was nice while it lasted.............

I can't help but feel that politicians, being politicians, are (in the words of Rahm Emmanuel) "not letting a crisis go to waste." I actually believe that that some are using this pandemic to further their agenda, which includes abrogating our rights. No one has ever indicated when the end will occur, and what will happen then. I speculate that we've again lost some of freedom, and we won't get it back unless we fight for it.

Agreed. What I am concerned about this becoming the template for future crises-real or imagined.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:

quote:

Originally posted by TAllen01:

quote:

Your giving stats in hindsight. No one knew at the beginnings of these outbreaks how severe or deadly they would be. The early numbers on swine flu were actually quite alarming.

So bear with me for a moment. No that we DO know how severe and deadly it can be, why are so many people fighting the steps the doctors are telling us that are needed to stop it?

The mortality rate has been steadily declining as testing identifies new cases. We are now under 1.3%. Because many people (more than 80% never show symptoms according to some estimates), the number of cases is likely highly understated, making the mortality rate even lower, although we won't know for certain for some time.

The CFR doesn't account for the undetected cases, it's true, but it also doesn't account for the people who are still sick.

In the US, right now there are 19,375 reported cases and 256 reported deaths. 256 / 19375 * 100 = 1.32%

However, there are also only 147 reported recoveries. You wouldn't say the recovery rate is 147 / 19,375 * 100 = 0.76%.

Of the confirmed cases in the US for which the patient isn't sick anymore, 256 / (256 + 147 ) * 100 = 63.5% have died and 36.5% have gotten better.

I'm certainly not suggesting that the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 63.5%, just that dividing deaths by total cases doesn't tell the whole story. Just as there is uncertainty because some of the total cases will die in the future (raising the mortality rate) there is uncertainty because not all cases are detected (lowering the mortality rate).

The big open question is how many cases are going undetected.

You’re assuming 100% of those who test positive have the disease, which is incorrect. A disease is a set of symptoms, not necessarily whether someone has a pathogen (above a detection limit)... as some will progress and others won’t. Not to be confused with false positives and false negatives, which is about the diagnostic test’s accuracy and precision, respectively.

If one uses a moving average (disease progressors vs non-progressors), it provides you with a reasonable estimate of mortality. 60% are asymptomatic, some of whom will ultimately get the disease and some won’t but the moving average corrects for this. So take 19,375/0.6 = approximate population estimate that currently carries the virus (assuming that asymptomatc people aren’t being tested for no reason), which equals approximately 32,392 individuals. Divide 256 by that figure... and you arrive at 0.8% apparent mortality rate at this time, the same quoted by the WH.

The economy was likely to slow or tank anyway due to no parts from China. Happy we have a "service" economy ?

quote:

Originally posted by Woodman:
Today I read the virus genome is a 30,000-letter string that changes at the rate of one letter every 15 days.

But, do you know what the significance is of that "fact"?

It may change, but that does not mean it is a whole new threat or becoming another strain.

Sort of like a person having children, who have children, who have children, and so forth, and after time, you look at the DNA of a child many generations removed from the first person, and are able to trace back the history, of where the original person was, and that "later child" and determine progress and origin.