SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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This Space for Rent |
^^^ same thing here at our Sams Club. For the business opening, there were about 200 people waiting to get in when we got there and about another 200 showed up after us. No paper product, milk, eggs, meat, rice. It’s crazy. We are just topping off ‘just in’ We will never know world peace, until three people can simultaneously look each other straight in the eye Liberals are like pussycats and Twitter is Trump's laser pointer to keep them busy while he takes care of business - Rey HRH. | |||
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Baroque Bloke |
Decimated: Reduced by 10%. “kill one in every ten of (a group of soldiers or others) as a punishment for the whole group.” Serious about crackers | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
But Rhino, You don't understand, something must be done! We just can't stand around taking this sitting down. Think of the politicians. When the press asks "what are you doing?", how foolish would a politician look by respondong "nothing."? We can't have our politicians being paid to do nothing, can we? Especially when people will die if they do nothing. I know, I know, people would have died anyway, but then the remaining people would blame the politicians for doing nothing. Of course, I realize that even when the politicians do something people will blame politicians for either not doing enough, or doing to much and saying they should have done nothing at all. But at least the politicians can say, "look, people were dying, and we had to do something." | |||
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Sigforum K9 handler |
That is likely the best summary I have read on this. | |||
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| Oh stewardess, I speak jive.  |
Something something chillrens. | |||
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Fortified with Sleestak |
Something something dark side. I have the heart of a lion.......and a lifetime ban from the Toronto Zoo.- Unknown | |||
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| Get my pies outta the oven!  |
Now you’re just being silly. Everyone uses that term to mean “devastated” or “wiped out” now and has been for a very long time. | |||
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| Something wild is loose  |
In my opinion the primary value of rapid testing is that within a few weeks (hopefully) we'll have a - reasonably - valid "n" for a given population of actual infections, from which we can extrapolate a - reasonably - valid CFR. And then get back to a rational conversation about this particular pandemic nationally. Because I agree with Jim Lawler and Osterholm about one thing - this is the second or third blast (globally - there have been more site-specific) on the early warning siren that we should now start paying really, really close attention to. We may not get another warning. "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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| Go ahead punk, make my day |
Yeah, I'm not Rush fan but he puts some rounds on target here with this whole 'crisis'. https://www.realclearpolitics....00_hospitalized.html RUSH LIMBAUGH: I’m always interested in people’s reaction to this program. I think I have a lot of empathy, and I think one of the reasons why the relationship you and I have is good is ’cause I know how you hear this show. That, I think, is a key ingredient. It’s called empathy. I know how you hear it. So when I check emails and get questions from people, usually I’m not surprised, and I’m not surprised that I got beaucoup number of questions: “Rush, you don’t sound panicked over any of this. The last two days, you don’t sound panicked, and yet everybody’s panicked. I’m panicked,” people say in their email. “I’m scared to death. I mean, I’ve looked, the stock market was pulling up to 30,000. Now it’s down to 21,000. The Democrat Party, every move they’re making is designed to grow government, make government bigger, and you don’t seem alarmed.” Folks, panic is… I don’t know. I’m not panicked. I am ticked off like you cannot believe, and I am really having a conversation with myself about how far to go in explaining why I’m mad, ’cause I’m mad about the politics of this. For example, let me give you some statistics. How many of you even remember the swine flu 2009, 2010? I don’t remember it. I mean, I remember we had it. But I don’t remember any panic about it. I don’t remember a thing about the swine flu. I went back and looked at the stats and I was stunned. Are you ready for this? The swine flu outbreak in this country in 2009 and 2010, 60 million Americans were infected. Do you remember that? Sixty million were infected. Dr. Siegel, one of the Fox doctors was on TV explaining this last night. He was not my primary source for it, but he ended up confirming it. Sixty million people were infected. Do you know how many people were hospitalized in 2009-2010 with the swine flu? Three hundred thousand were hospitalized. So 60 million people infected, 300,000 hospitalized. And nobody even remembers it. And why? Well, because we had a different president. We had a Democrat president by the name of Barack Obama, and the news then was how wonderfully well Obama was handling it, how expertly well Obama was dealing with it. There wasn’t any media panic. The Republican Party did not politicize it at all. They made not one single effort that anybody can find or remember to try to make political hay out of it. It was treated as a health issue from top to bottom. Sixty million Americans infected, 300,000 hospitalized. I don’t know what the death toll was. The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu. And then we also had Ebola. And I do remember a little bit more about Ebola, and once again, the Drive-By Media was praising the skills and the composure and the brilliance of Barack Obama in dealing with it. And I remember being kind of ticked off about that because there wasn’t anything anybody can do about Ebola. Ebola is like any of these other viruses. There’s nothing we can do to contain them. See, the reason I’m not panicked is I don’t have enough emotion left for panic ’cause I’m too mad. I’m too ticked off at this. We’re watching the U.S. economy be wrecked here. There’s some people enjoying it. And it makes me mad. There’s some people’s lives here that are being seriously damaged over this. And you know what’s gonna happen? It’s gonna end. We are going to overcome it. It’s going to fizzle out like all of these do. How did we ever survive 60 million infected with the swine flu? But we did to the point that hardly anybody remembers it. And that’s just 10 years ago, 300,000 hospitalized. So we overcame it. We overcame Ebola. This is gonna end, it’s gonna pass. And I’ll tell you what else is gonna happen. Because of the actions President Trump has taken, like this travel ban from Europe, that has really put the Democrats in a dicey position. There’s some real positives if you want to find ’em here, and I, of course, have, and I’ll share them with you in a minute. The point is we’re gonna rebound from this, and when we do, you had better get ready and hold on tight, because this market’s gonna rebound. The people who are selling right now and getting out of it are panicking, and they don’t want to be selling. Everybody’s doing this from a very defensive posture and point of view. And it’s adding… Like we get news that Tom Hanks and his wife have coronavirus. “Oh, no, it’s all going (mewling)! It’s over. Oh, my…” And then his kid — his kid, Chet — goes on TV, tries to calm everybody. “They’re fine. They’re in Australia. They’re fine. They’re not suffering at all. Everything’s fine!” It doesn’t matter. They’ve got it. Anyway, this is gonna end, and this market is gonna rebound like you can’t believe because the people who have been selling off want to get back in it. And we are taking economic procedures right now that are going to serve to further reignite the economy when all this passes. And when we get back into the growth trajectory, some of the proposals the president’s making regarding payroll taxes, Small Business Administration loans, even a tax holiday? You just wait until people have no more emotion left to be panicked and get tired of this and want to go a different direction. And that day is gonna happen. The day’s gonna come where people are gonna wake and say, “I’m tired of living this way. I’m fed up with being panicked every day. I’m fed up,” and then — because of the actions the president’s taken — we’re not gonna have that many brand-new infections. By shutting off this travel from Europe… As I said, this has really put the Democrats in a bad position ’cause they love the European Union. They love it, and the very fact that travel from their beloved European Union has been shut down… But let… If they come out and oppose this, then they’re essentially coming out for open borders. This is actually… If you want to look at it politically, it’s a good move from that standpoint. But I’m not panicking ’cause I’m too mad about this. This is… I don’t know. (sigh) It’s… I know some of you are saying, “Rush, easy for you to say.” It isn’t easy for me to say, folks. Nobody’s immune from what’s happening here. I mean, you go back and you look at these swine flu numbers and you ask, “What was different? (chuckles) What was different was we had a Democrat in the White House and so the media didn’t want to be critical of the government. The media wanted to be promoting him. They wanted to be positive. They wanted to promote the brilliance of Barack Obama, the brilliant management skills, the temperament, the crease in his slacks, the intelligence and all that. Now we’ve got just exact opposite. | |||
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| Go ahead punk, make my day |
For. Da. Chirrrins.  | |||
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| wishing we were congress |
There is a lot of useful data in the JHU data at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/op...40299423467b48e9ecf6 I am going to start plotting the data for selected states The data is for 4 types: Confirmed cases Deaths Recovered Existing It looks like "confirmed" means the total number ever confirmed. So that number will always rise and never decrease After a person is confirmed, then 3 things can happen: death, recover, still be sick (existing) so #confirmed = #deaths + #recovered + #existing What is expected is that the #existing will rise for a number of weeks (months ?), peak, and then start to decline. A fraction of the "existing" will need hospital care. Hopefully that fraction is small. If the "existing" can be held down, hospitals will have enough capacity to handle those that need care. Plotting the data over time will show how this plays out. selected states:  | |||
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| Sigforum K9 handler |
Something something something complete | |||
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| Go ahead punk, make my day |
Something Something thirty-four something something | |||
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Get Off My Lawn |
 "I’m not going to read Time Magazine, I’m not going to read Newsweek, I’m not going to read any of these magazines; I mean, because they have too much to lose by printing the truth"- Bob Dylan, 1965 | |||
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| I kneel for my God, and I stand for my flag |
Overstocked? | |||
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Alea iacta est |
SDY, it’s already being done for you: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en The “lol” thread | |||
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| Something wild is loose |
A simple data set that will eventually be exactly what is used in the final analysis - good setup. It also demonstrates the false equivalence of using early and incomplete data for universal projections. The highest CFR is over 6% - mostly from a single site consisting of highly vulnerable patients: excluding that site, the CFR for the general population (all over age 70 except for one) was around 2%. The state with second highest number of confirmed cases had a CFR of 0% (as of now 0.2% with one 82 y/o death). Four of the states listed - almost 50% - have a CFR of 0%. It's early. "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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| Alea iacta est |
I forgot to mention, went to Costco yesterday to get my new glasses... No toilet paper or paper towels. One of the associates said they had ten pallets in the morning, employees were passing out one pack to each member, and they were sold out in 15 minutes. There was a full pallet of Clorox bleach. Plenty of meat and canned goods. I did my regular shopping and added ONE case of bleach for good measure. So in 2020, when the millennials are wetting their feet as preppers for a virus outbreak, they buy all the TP, but ignore the food and the bleach. Rocket Surgeons  The “lol” thread | |||
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Only the strong survive |
The key is a strong immune system. I feel sorry for the old people with some setting in an ALF and not getting any exercise. There is so much we do not know about this virus. Will it die out or will we go through this again next year. I hope they find out if it was man made or not. Even Vitamin C is sold out at some places: https://search.mercola.com/results.aspx?q=vitamin%20c 41 | |||
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Member |
The perils of small sample sizes and population estimates of questionable accuracy. The sample sizes are actually even smaller than they seem. One of the articles from Italy said that even among the highest-risk groups, non-survivors were surviving a week or two in the hospital (i.e., the people who die are taking a week or two to die). That means, for example, that someone who got sick five days ago and got tested two days ago but will end up dying is reflected in the current number of confirmed cases, but probably hasn't died yet. (Of course, someone who got sick five days ago and isn't going to die hasn't died yet, either.) There's still a lot of uncertainty in the data on coronavirus in the US and will be for a while. | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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