SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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| Something wild is loose  |
I thought the comments were from Dr. Osterholm's projections, which in my opinion are, I'll say, excessive (but based on straight line math), but I stand corrected on the text of the link. Jim's expertise is unquestioned, and he's a great internist (did his ID Fellowship at Walter Reed), and both he and Dr, Brad Britigan in the ID department are among the best in the nation. But I don't think he intended to imply that 480,000 people would die, but that could be worst case if unchecked. It could be everyone on the planet, come to that. But it won't. "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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| Live Slow, Die Whenever  |
So our town (Santa Clarita) had its first positive test of a Covid-19 patient. He traveled from Italy last week and wasnt feeling well- got tested and was placed on in-home quarantine. Most CA public school districts have announced closures for a period of no less that 3 weeks. As soon as the schools in my area announced the closures at around 12:30pm it became a mad dash to the grocery stores. Everyone was well behaved, with no major issues. The big thing people were discussing was not being prepared to feed their kids and themselves at home for the next week or 2, that and the concern of limited supplies during that time. Most folks kids eat school cafeteria food, sometimes even breakfast. I was able to shop for at least a weeks worth for my wife and 2 kids. Shes a teacher so she’ll be home, and I will be busy doing my medic thing.  "I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people and I require the same from them." - John Wayne in "The Shootist" | |||
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| Oh stewardess, I speak jive.  |
During the Rogan interview Osterholm definitely said he thought the total death toll could reach some 400k or so people. I forget the time index. | |||
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| Live Slow, Die Whenever |
We can always count on Norm MacDonald to deliver... "I won't be wronged, I won't be insulted, and I won't be laid a hand on. I don't do these things to other people and I require the same from them." - John Wayne in "The Shootist" | |||
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Only the strong survive |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhoI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk In this video, Dr Campbell talks about the use of Vitamin D3. Dr. Campbell is in UK and has daily updates of the Global spread and containment of the virus. Recommendations by the Life Extension Foundation: https://www.lifeextension.com/...af6212784c39e05d2aef 41 | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
2:04 in he says 480,000 deaths. Fun fact that came up when I searched 480,000 deaths: according to the CDC, cigarette smoking kills more than 480,000 Americans per year. Seems to me, if we banned cigarettes then we could free up enough hospital beds for COVID-19. Also, those are not Olsterholm's projections. He's quoting Lawler's projections and in fact misquotes one when he says 48 million hospitalizations. It's 4.8 million hospitalizations. He did quote 98 million cases and 480,000 deaths correctly. According to This Article, Lawler's estimate was part of an American Hospital Association webinar given on 2/27/20. | |||
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| california tumbles into the sea |
It's not like you're going to easily avoid someone that is contagious. It takes 4 days to get sick after you are exposed. Once you are exposed you are sick and can pass it on with every breath you exhale. I've thought about this and have resigned myself to the fact that either my wife or I will get sick and then both of us will be sick. We both exercise daily (Concept2 Model D rowing machine - bought this for myself and she rows more / longer that I do, every day - something totally unexpected!) and try to eat healthy. Something like this is beyond anyone's control. Why worry? | |||
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| 10mm is The Boom of Doom  |
That's just it. With a little effort you can dramatically reduce your risks. My kids are out of school for spring break, and schools will likely be cancelled or moved online going forward. I have hoarded a zillion cans of Spam and rolls of toilet paper. So we have no need to leave the house again. Ever. God Bless and Protect the Once and Future President, Donald John Trump. | |||
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| Member |
Here is a great article where James Woods bashes Pelosi over her Corona Virus speech https://www.westernjournal.com...mKyBUh6dSgaL2q9K-OBU | |||
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| Member |
Just got off the phone and done looking at emails from someone in the military and their projections are: Assuming it's similar to SARS/MERS- 10 weeks from start to finish. Flu like symptoms/virus- 20 weeks from start to finish. It's going to be a long summer. I'm looking at strange anomalies in places like Chicago, Baltimore and certain residents of those Cities. The fact that they are opportunistic predators. My forecast isn't good. I don't want to seem all "doom and gloom" or "the sky is falling!", but it's going to be really interesting at work this summer! ______________________________________________________________________ "When its time to shoot, shoot. Dont talk!" “What the government is good at is collecting taxes, taking away your freedoms and killing people. It’s not good at much else.” —Author Tom Clancy | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent  |
Well, we essentially cancelled Easter for the family. Berlin will probably close down all public venues and reduce public transport on Tuesday to at least 20 April to mitigate local spread. We're running emergency operations at the office from Monday, with only one person per room coming in, the rest working from home or field sales only, as far as there will still be appointments. I'm standing in for our office manager who has a public one-and-a-half-hour commute and will leave next month anyway, while I'm cycling to work. We had planned for her to work me in over a six-week period, but now two and remote support will have to do. To back up what somebody said about distribution of intensive care beds, when it comes to national per capitas, the US and Germany are heads and shoulders over most other OECD countries. But you also need to consider regional availability (note that the second chart is from 2007).  https://www.forbes.com/sites/n...-capita-infographic/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4351597/ https://link.springer.com/arti...07/s00134-012-2627-8 https://www.researchgate.net/p...ountries_and_Regions  | |||
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| Member |
Well, I'm halfway around the world in Kosovo so I guess my family will have to survive the Z (TP?) apocalypse on their own. At least they have plenty of food... I'm not following it as closely as y'all..but how in the world could the US have 480K deaths!!!   when it wasn't nearly that bad in China where it originated, where there are over a billion people crammed next to each other with zero sanitation, and almost no hospital beds per capita? I get we can't trust #s out of China but if 480k could die in the US shouldn't China lose millions then? They can't cover up millions...Which conspiracy video explains why the US will have millions of infected and hundreds of thousands of deaths when China is already over the hump and on the decline without experiencing that outcome? “People have to really suffer before they can risk doing what they love.” –Chuck Palahnuik Be harder to kill: https://preparefit.ck.page | |||
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Seeker of Clarity |
I doubt it will come to asking back retired clinical staff. They would be the most at risk. Regardless, if it's a slow burn, capacities will hold, or be close to holding. If it's a powder keg, the extraordinary volume surge will vastly outpace capacity, and thus will end quickly. With terrible outcomes for those not served.  | |||
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| Seeker of Clarity |
I guess when it comes down to it, nobody knows of course. The sense I've picked up is that China had the (tyrannical) ability to "drop the boot" on the infected in a way that (seems to have) stopped the spread. Though it may seem extreme actions are being taken in the U.S., in fact, we're slowly taking actions. One day, it's no huge conference, the next the colleges close, later basketball and hockey, then k-12. But people are still swirling through grocery stores. Restaurants. I assume movie theaters. We've not stopped the spread at all. Day by day, hour by hour, it is spreading. We will hopefully slow it. | |||
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Member |
China has taken extreme measures to stop/slow the spread of coronavirus. They are in essentially total lockdown. One report I saw said that in some areas they had put speakers out in the streets that announced when people were allowed to leave their homes. I don't recall exactly, but I think for a while people were let out three times a week, and then at some point they announced no one was allowed to leave their homes at all for a week or two. The 480k deaths in the US number was from before we started doing anything meaningful to stop/slow the spread and was based on the assumption that everyone just went about their business and nothing changed. We are doing stuff now, but not on the same scale as China. | |||
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Step by step walk the thousand mile road |
I heard a gem in Styxhexenhammer666's daily corona virus update. "Under capitalism you occasionally get bread lines; under communism you occasionally get bread." A perfect sound bite. Nice is overrated "It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government." Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018 | |||
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Member |
Kinda like the old smoking/non-smoking sections in restaurants back in the day. _____________________ Be careful what you tolerate. You are teaching people how to treat you. | |||
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Festina Lente |
This is where we’d be with single-payer govt healthcare. We may be there anyhow, if the curve stays exponential... An article published by the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (translated here by Yascha Mounk) warns that "It may be necessary to establish criteria of access to intensive care not just on the basis of clinical appropriateness but inspired by the most consensual criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources." The report goes on to recommend rationing care to certain populations. Read more: https://www.americanthinker.co...o.html#ixzz6GfMvBwIp NRA Life Member - "Fear God and Dreadnaught" | |||
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Semper Fi - 1775 |
Apple stores are closing for 2 weeks. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...avirus-pandemic.html Pressure’s on, Best Buy! ___________________________ All it takes...is all you got. ____________________________ For those who have fought for it, Freedom has a flavor the protected will never know ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ | |||
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| Member |
You get there with unconstrained extrapolation of a limited data set. The same method that brought us global warming. Many of the predictions tell you how bad it COULD get, not necessarily what is expected to happen. | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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