A thought that came to me over a few cocktails tonight.

Why is it with all these infected people that the news hasn't stuck one of them in front of a camera to show how miserable it is to be afflicted with the dreaded SARS CoV-2?

Why isn't Tom Hanks, his wife, or Trudeau's husband on a Facebook Livestream?

Could it be because they're sitting back in their living room suffering with common cold like symptoms and enjoying the shit show the media is creating?

Seriously though. Does anyone here know someone first hand who is not elderly, or immuno compromised with the virus? Are they "near deaths door" or doing like I do with a cold and kick back with a toddy and relax?

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

"could"

"maybe"

"possibly"

These people are scientists. We don't know enough about coronavirus yet to make really accurate predictions, so when they make estimates, they're going to talk about them as estimates.

Tomorrow every coronavirus on Earth could just suddenly go poof and this could be all over. It's not likely, but it's possible.

Scientists almost never talk in absolutes.

quote:

Originally posted by ubelongoutside:
A thought that came to me over a few cocktails tonight.

Why is it with all these infected people that the news hasn't stuck one of them in front of a camera to show how miserable it is to be afflicted with the dreaded SARS CoV-2?

Why isn't Tom Hanks, his wife, or Trudeau's husband on a Facebook Livestream?

Could it be because they're sitting back in their living room suffering with common cold like symptoms and enjoying the shit show the media is creating?

Seriously though. Does anyone here know someone first hand who is not elderly, or immuno compromised with the virus? Are they "near deaths door" or doing like I do with a cold and kick back with a toddy and relax?

All along, the information from virtually every reputable source has been that most people who get COVID-19 have mild to moderate symptoms and don't require hospitalization. The risk to any one individual person who gets it (except in certain high-risk groups) has never been the primary concern.

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Originally posted by holdem:
We have other friends ... "Well, I am just going to pretend we either did not see that, or that we did not leave the country."

"Friends?" Is that a new way of saying "inconsiderate, self-centered, assholes we know?"

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:
those who work within our hospitals are in for a life altering experience. Pray for them.

Lots of exhaustive overtime. Some if not many will acquire the disease and then die. All trying to help others. Lets all hope they don't need to draft the retirees, like my wife.

What is that supposed to mean?

Everyone has used their toilet paper that they’ve hoarded, but starved to death.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
What is that supposed to mean?

All the toilet paper being bought ...

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Originally posted by rburg:

quote:

Originally posted by r0gue:
those who work within our hospitals are in for a life altering experience. Pray for them.

Lots of exhaustive overtime. Some if not many will acquire the disease and then die. All trying to help others. Lets all hope they don't need to draft the retirees, like my wife.

There were 343 people in NYC who put the good of their statesman ahead of their own. I thank every health care professional doing the same now.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
"could"

"maybe"

"possibly"

These people are scientists. We don't know enough about coronavirus yet to make really accurate predictions, so when they make estimates, they're going to talk about them as estimates.

Tomorrow every coronavirus on Earth could just suddenly go poof and this could be all over. It's not likely, but it's possible.

Scientists almost never talk in absolutes.

And in today's day and age of social media, virtual signaling, and "and abundance of caution", they are 'probably' blowing shit waaaaaay out of proportion, in my scientific opinion.

But like I said, some people (here and elsewhere) love drama, love disaster, and lather themselves up in it. Like that Navy Wife we knew who, whenever there was a fatal accident, would say "oh I thought it was my husband, it could have been my husband, we had dinner with their brothers sisters former roomate who knew them". Of course everyone in the conversation could say that, but she was the one who always did. And guess what, it never happened to her, her husband, or anyone she really knew.

She just really enjoyed the drama, apparently.

And the other flip side is all of the illness mongering means what for these scientists...?

MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY. Now and for the next couple of years.

"You know the Wuhan Virus wasn't that bad, because WE STOPPED IT. Now we need to FUND this type of stuff more in order to be BETTER PREPARED NEXT TIME...."

And from here on out, every Flu Season will get a name, just like every blizzard or Thunderstorm in America...

My wife uses a grocery app , shop from the app set a pick up time ,they load into your car . She informs me tonight that the next order we pick up will sit in the garage for 9 days . My brother in law the MD told her COVID can live on surface for 9 days. I think I’m going into stage 3 of Kubler Ross.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
You want some numbers? I can make up some numbers for you. We got any kind of numbers you want.

You want a toe, Dude? I can get you a toe, believe me.

quote:

Originally posted by midwest guy:
My wife uses a grocery app , shop from the app set a pick up time ,they load into your car . She informs me tonight that the next order we pick up will sit in the garage for 9 days . My brother in law the MD told her COVID can live on surface for 9 days. I think I’m going into stage 3 of Kubler Ross.

A more recent study suggests only 3 days. The 9 days came from assuming it is similar to SARS & MERS viruses, but now we're finding different.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by Veeper:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
Ok, how is it that you have stats that the CDC has not made public?

Go back and look at my post again. They are in the news article I linked.

So the NYT is making numbers public that aren't public from a source they probably can't cite, except to probably say that the source is familiar with the matter. Like.... I'm familiar with that matter.

And then quote a University of Nebraska Medical Center infectious disease expert whose projection (also before beginning containment/mitigation efforts, I think) was 480,000 deaths in the US, a projection he felt was conservative.

That would be a University of Minnesota infectious disease expert. I know they're both flyover country....

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
"You know the Wuhan Virus wasn't that bad, because WE STOPPED IT. Now we need to FUND this type of stuff more in order to be BETTER PREPARED NEXT TIME...."

If you're in a car wreck and you don't die, how do you know your seatbelt did anything?

If there's a flood but your house stays dry, how do you know all those sandbags you ringed your house with did anything?

You haven't offered any actual evidence of anything. Your only response to evidence that there might actually be a problem here has been condescension, personal attacks, and mischaracterizing a calm discussion of statistics and mathematical models as hysteria.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by Veeper:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
Ok, how is it that you have stats that the CDC has not made public?

Go back and look at my post again. They are in the news article I linked.

So the NYT is making numbers public that aren't public from a source they probably can't cite, except to probably say that the source is familiar with the matter. Like.... I'm familiar with that matter.

And then quote a University of Nebraska Medical Center infectious disease expert whose projection (also before beginning containment/mitigation efforts, I think) was 480,000 deaths in the US, a projection he felt was conservative.

That would be a University of Minnesota infectious disease expert. I know they're both flyover country....

The article I linked describes the individual in question as "Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases specialist and public health expert at the University of Nebraska Medical Center."

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
If you're in a car wreck and you don't die, how do you know your seatbelt did anything?

The diagonal bruise across my torso. Been there.

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:
"You know the Wuhan Virus wasn't that bad, because WE STOPPED IT. Now we need to FUND this type of stuff more in order to be BETTER PREPARED NEXT TIME...."

If you're in a car wreck and you don't die, how do you know your seatbelt did anything?

If there's a flood but your house stays dry, how do you know all those sandbags you ringed your house with did anything?

You haven't offered any actual evidence of anything. Your only response to evidence that there might actually be a problem here has been condescension, personal attacks, and mischaracterizing a calm discussion of statistics and mathematical models as hysteria.

Well, you've got all the numbers but in about 2-3 months, we'll know how it all shakes out.

My prediction? No worse than the regular flu. More people will have died from traffic accidents when this is all over, even with seatbelts and airbags.

Hospitals won't be overloaded.

People won't be dead in the streets.

Lots of people will have clean rear ends, but some people won't.

Of course I haven't scoured the internet and listened to every expert. I've looked at some data and think 'wow, people are making a lot out of this'.

And I'm a numbers guy (Math), but I see wild exaggeration and worse case scenarios billed as the leading headline. Number can lie just like the people bending them.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
If you're in a car wreck and you don't die, how do you know your seatbelt did anything?

The diagonal bruise across my torso. Been there.

Interestingly, the only bad car wreck I have been in, I WASN'T wearing a seatbelt. As a stupid kid driving stupidly fast on a dirt road on private property I rolled a Suburban (hard - one full counterclockwise rotation plus another quarter turn, coming to rest lying on the driver's side) and walked away with only a small bruise on one shin. I guess my guardian angel was on duty that day.

Since then I have always worn a seatbelt.