SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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| Savor the limelight |
I hope it's not too much of a thread drift, but it doesn't really require its own thread: those in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, how are the public K-12 schools going to make up the weeks lost? Are they tacking the extra weeks onto the end of the year? We had planned to go to Cedar Point before Memorial Day, but our kids' school is tacking an extra week on at the end. Normally, the crowds are light because the schools there are still in session. | |||
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Member |
Why do you keep talking about Italy? The average Italian is 45.4 years old. The Average American is 38.2 years old. That is a HUGE difference. Of course their death rate is going to be higher. And it’s probably higher for pneumonia, regular flu and a bunch of other health problems. Trying to compare their death rate to ‘possibly’ what could happen here is panic. ——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1 | |||
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Void Where Prohibited |
I don't know about those states, but yesterday CT decided to legally allow the school year to be shortened. "If Gun Control worked, Chicago would look like Mayberry, not Thunderdome" - Cam Edwards | |||
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Ammoholic |
I stopped in at Food Lion everyone had carts full of water and TP. I guess there is some recipes out there for making TP soup or something? No meat or chicken left in the store but I didn't actually see anyone buying meat. I saw one Hispanic fellow in line next to mine he had three bags of flour and some other food items, no TP. I said you get it. He replied yeah these people are nuts, this can feed my family for a long time and has a long shelf life if we don't have to live off it. The rest of his cart was canned goods and beans, stuff his family always uses. Jesse Sic Semper Tyrannis | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
Ha, I hadn't thought about that possibility. We aren't changing our reservations just yet, becaise we have no idea if the Florida Department of Education will add another week or more to spring break. Collier County schools just came off spring break and announced they would be back in school on Monday despite the FDOE's mandate. I was impressed that they were taking a stand, but then they caved. | |||
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Funny Man |
Italy has roughly 60 million people. Their largest age bracket is 45 to 55. They may have an older average age, due more to low birth rates than a huge number of older citizens, but we have 70 plus million baby boomers. That is more people 55 and older in the US than the entire population of Italy. It could be that our death rate ends up higher both by number and percentages than Italy based on the number of Americans in this vulnerable age bracket. ______________________________ “I'd like to know why well-educated idiots keep apologizing for lazy and complaining people who think the world owes them a living.” ― John Wayne | |||
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Member |
We got my dad to bring us some supplies. Their grocery stores haven't been picked clear yet. Huge bag of flour, yeast, a few loaves of bread, eggs & milk. Our closest store (HEB) has altered their hours to 8-8 instead of 6-11, I'm assuming to give time to restock. The Enemy's gate is down. | |||
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| Eye on the Silver Lining |
Just curious - I got a 2% death rate when I did the simple math on this chart a few posts above... and there are no extenuating factors such as age, health, sex to qualify these numbers.. I know it’s all very fluid, but it’s certainly necessary to take it with a grain of salt. __________________________ "Trust, but verify." | |||
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Member |
Read my post again. I didn't compare death rates to Italy. The ONLY information I used from Italy is that their very old, high-risk patients that die are taking a week or two to die. I didn't even make an argument about whether I think the rates in the quoted data are high or low, just that there isn't enough data to form a solid conclusion yet. | |||
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| Savor the limelight |
Wouldn't a higher population of old people lead to lower birth rates? My county in Florida is the oldest in the country by population. 34% are over 65 and 55% are over 50. We also have one of the lowest birth rates of any county in the country. In fact, all 3 of my children were born in a different county due to lack of prenatal care and ObGyns here. | |||
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| Mired in the Fog of Lucidity |
Here's a home remedy....FWIW.  Hopefully the stores aren't sold out of cow urine!https://www.foxnews.com/world/...ow-urine-coronavirus | |||
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| Member |
22 percent of Italians are 65 or older and their healthcare system is overloaded and has been almost since the Wuhan flu arrived. Comparing younger baby boomers in this country where we have a much better healthcare system is a red herring, especially when you see the death rates from Wuhan flu over the ages of 70. Compare that to the 50-59 age group. ——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1 | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
Conversely: We have one of the unhealthiest populations on the planet, whereas Italy rates as one of the healthiest. In fact: For a while, Italy was rated as the healthiest country in the world. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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| It's not you, it's me.  |
This thread is literally starting to become some variation of the same post over and over again. | |||
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| Member |
PUBLIX supermarkets are closing all of their stores at 8PM now also. They cited so their employees could do additional cleaning each night as the reason. | |||
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| Funny Man |
That 22% is roughly 13 million people over 65. The US has almost 16% which is roughly 49 million people over 65. As for Italy's healthcare, they rank 3rd in the world in number of critical care beds per capita behind only Germany and the US. To assume our superior healthcare capacity is enough to treat 4 times the vulnerbale population is a stretch. ______________________________ “I'd like to know why well-educated idiots keep apologizing for lazy and complaining people who think the world owes them a living.” ― John Wayne | |||
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| Member |
You make the false assumption that 4 times the vulnerable population will need treatment. Not to mention we have almost 3 times the critical care beds per 100,000 people. But, panic. ——————————————— The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God. Psalm 14:1 | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent  |
What I find interesting is that per the sites which break cases down into those considered "serious/critical" (I've gone to Worldometers since the Johns Hopkins map became increasingly laggy), that category is below one percent in the US and Germany - literally just a handful of cases, unlike anywhere else with a four-digit total case count. This is despite the current CFRs being quite different at 2.0 vs. 0.2 percent. I noted earlier that we were lucky here in the initial wave being mostly younger, healthy folks. The US would probably look the same if the virus hadn't hit some nursing homes. | |||
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Drill Here, Drill Now |
TXJIM, I also saw the post on pg 121 showing Italian critical care bed figure was #3. However, I also saw a stat in an American Thinker article that showed their socialized medicine had underinvested and were bottom tier in Europe:
Ego is the anesthesia that deadens the pain of stupidity DISCLAIMER: These are the author's own personal views and do not represent the views of the author's employer. | |||
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Member |
I think your assessment is spot on and I agree 100%. I think we also have some other things going for us, primarily how spread apart we are geographically outside of our major cities. I also wonder, and this is pure speculation, whether this virus or a slightly mutated version of it isn’t quite as new as everyone thought and perhaps there is some degree of herd immunity? Perhaps this virus has also mutated somewhat to be less virulent? I do think that if the first major target of Covid-19 wasn’t a nursing home that our death numbers would be considerably lower and the degree of panic would also be less. “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.” | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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