quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
This thread is literally starting to become
some variation of the same post over and over again.

Especially since it's so early and the numbers used are almost worthless due to lack of testing.

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:

quote:

Originally posted by PowerSurge:
Why do you keep talking about Italy? The average Italian is 45.4 years old. The Average American is 38.2 years old. That is a HUGE difference. Of course their death rate is going to be higher. And it’s probably higher for pneumonia, regular flu and a bunch of other health problems.

Trying to compare their death rate to ‘possibly’ what could happen here is panic.

Italy has roughly 60 million people. Their largest age bracket is 45 to 55. They may have an older average age, due more to low birth rates than a huge number of older citizens, but we have 70 plus million baby boomers. That is more people 55 and older in the US than the entire population of Italy. It could be that our death rate ends up higher both by number and percentages than Italy based on the number of Americans in this vulnerable age bracket.

22 percent of Italians are 65 or older and their healthcare system is overloaded and has been almost since the Wuhan flu arrived. Comparing younger baby boomers in this country where we have a much better healthcare system is a red herring, especially when you see the death rates from Wuhan flu over the ages of 70. Compare that to the 50-59 age group.

That 22% is roughly 13 million people over 65. The US has almost 16% which is roughly 49 million people over 65. As for Italy's healthcare, they rank 3rd in the world in number of critical care beds per capita behind only Germany and the US. To assume our superior healthcare capacity is enough to treat 4 times the vulnerbale population is a stretch.

You make the false assumption that 4 times the vulnerable population will need treatment. Not to mention we have almost 3 times the critical care beds per 100,000 people.

But, panic.

I love how anyone who has an argument that things could be as bad as other places is in a panic. You sound like a liberal, if you don't like the argument go straight to shaming and name calling.


So to summarize, we have 4 times the vulnerable population and only 3 times the beds. Although we have 3 times times the bed we also have those beds spread across a huge geography with large pockets of disparity in beds to population. Shall we get into our world leading rate of comorbidites such as diabetes and heart disease?


There is a vast expense between panic and denial where most of us reside, you should join us

Btw, I am headed out the door to grab some lunch with my family and attend a high school baseball game with lots of other people..does that sound like panic?

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:
I love how anyone who has an argument that things could be as bad as other places is in a panic. You sound like a liberal, if you don't like the argument go straight to shaming and name calling.

Yeah, that's getting a mite tiring.

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:
There is a vast expense between panic and denial where most of us reside, you should join us

Yup.

It's essentially what we're seeing in the overall political/social climate: If you're not hard on the left or the right, those who are accuse you of being on the side opposite them. "Yer either with us or agin us!"

quote:

Originally posted by TXJIM:
Btw, I am headed out the door to grab some lunch with my family and attend a high school baseball game with lots of other people..does that sound like panic?

Hardly. If neither you nor a loved one falls into one or more of the higher-risk demographics: Carrying-on more-or-less normally, but with a bit more attention to hand-washing, disinfecting, etc. is perfectly reasonable, IMO. My wife and I don't have that luxury, being as she falls into three risk categories, and I'm marginally into two of them. So we're "panicking."

I've had it with this Virus carp. Freaking people are just freaking stupid. More panic buying today. Beaverton costco a 9:30 am opening time was packed in the parking lot and the line up going it. Are they not done yet? WTH?

I've got enough food, after my German deli run today (in and out in 15 minutes - no lines) for oh 12+ weeks and then some. Fresh fruit and veggies, eggs and milk and no Salmon, but I can live without these items for quite a while.

TP is no problem - one costco pack lasts me a year... So I got to the end of the year probably.

This is just insane - well 80 pct of the population needs a lobotomy, although it looks like many have one or two already based on current behaviors.

If this thing had a 50+ pct mortality rate, yea ok, I'd get it, but 2-3 pct, unless your over 60+ and even then if you are in good over all health, you'd make it. If you are in bad health, you're on you way out anyway; Corona 19, Corona X. da Flu, hell OLD AGE is knocking on their door to get in.

Well, play with m radios and then try shooting for the few items I desire but not really need, after 5PM. Worked like a charm 2 weeks ago; in and out in 15 minutes.

Clean the guns, practice in case they come for your food or TP in the next panic......

Oh, need to add Corona beer to my list for today, for the Corona Virus party in 2 weeks. had one last weekend and it was a great success - nobody died or caught it. LOL

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
What I find interesting is that per the sites which break cases down into those considered "serious/critical" (I've gone to Worldometers since the Johns Hopkins map became increasingly laggy), that category is below one percent in the US and Germany - literally just a handful of cases, unlike anywhere else with a four-digit total case count. This is despite the current CFRs being quite different at 2.0 vs. 0.2 percent. I noted earlier that we were lucky here in the initial wave being mostly younger, healthy folks. The US would probably look the same if the virus hadn't hit some nursing homes.

worldofmeters-italy
again, i dont get it. if mild = no hospital and serious/critical = hospital. italy would need 1,500 additional beds available to handle the current and highest number they have seen so far. per capita/ratios etc. i think there are details missing from the italian case i am not aware of where the 1,500 hospital bed capacity for coronavirus is overloading their entire medical system. if they chose to let those 1,500 patients remain in a smaller even lower "per capita" region for containment sake...that is a choice. just like their choice to treat one person and not the other...

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
TXJIM, I also saw the post on pg 121 showing Italian critical care bed figure was #3. However, I also saw a stat in an American Thinker article that showed their socialized medicine had underinvested and were bottom tier in Europe:

quote:

Italy lags other large European countries in provision of acute-care hospital beds, furnishing 2.62 of them per 1,000 residents as of 2016, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In Germany it’s 6.06 and in France and the Netherlands it’s 3.15 and 3 respectively. That year, Italy devoted around $913 per capita to inpatient acute and rehabilitative care, compared with $1,338 in France, $1,506 in Germany, and $1,732 in the U.S.

That article is talking about "acute" care beds, i. e. anything available to treat incoming cases of whatever severity. I don't know where the guy got his data from, because the actual OECD number for Italy is 3.2 per thousand, in France it's 6.0 and in Germany 8.0. However, there are lots of European/Western nations with less - including the US, which has 2.8 per thousand. In general, the author can't get his facts straight to save his own life, much less that of others.

Conversely, the US has the highest number of critical care beds per capita, which are needed to keep people alive with respirators etc. Note that the chart I posted back there lists only select countries, not all of them; I included a couple links below it showing more comprehensive numbers throughout the US, Europe and Asia, but didn't want to post more charts. Here's Europe; Italy is upper middle tier, just above the average.



Asia:

quote:

Originally posted by alteon180e:

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
What I find interesting is that per the sites which break cases down into those considered "serious/critical" (I've gone to Worldometers since the Johns Hopkins map became increasingly laggy), that category is below one percent in the US and Germany - literally just a handful of cases, unlike anywhere else with a four-digit total case count. This is despite the current CFRs being quite different at 2.0 vs. 0.2 percent. I noted earlier that we were lucky here in the initial wave being mostly younger, healthy folks. The US would probably look the same if the virus hadn't hit some nursing homes.

worldofmeters-italy
again, i dont get it. if mild = no hospital and serious/critical = hospital. italy would need 1,500 additional beds available to handle the current and highest number they have seen so far. per capita/ratios etc. i think there are details missing from the italian case i am not aware of where the 1,500 hospital bed capacity for coronavirus is overloading their entire medical system. if they chose to let those 1,500 patients remain in a smaller even lower "per capita" region for containment sake...that is a choice. just like their choice to treat one person and not the other...

Right now, coronavirus cases are highly concentrated in the Lombardy region of northern Italy (which, based on what has been reported, is the wealthiest area of Italy, with the most hospital capacity).

Two issues:

Moving hundreds or thousands of critically ill, contagious patients cross country is a nontrivial task.

Italy has about 5,200 ICU beds across the country ( http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news...-overwhelm-hospitals ). However, that doesn't mean they have 5,200 ICU beds available for COVID-19 patients. At any given time, the majority of ICU beds in any country are in use for patients with other health issues.

I don't know what the typical ICU occupancy rate in Italy is, but for perspective, in 2005 in the United States, the ICU occupancy rate was about 68% (meaning, on average, 68% of ICU beds were in use at any given time). ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5520980/ )

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:
Conversely, the US has the highest number of critical care beds per capita, which are needed to keep people alive with respirators etc. Note that the chart I posted back there lists only select countries, not all of them; I included a couple links below it showing more comprehensive numbers throughout the US, Europe and Asia, but didn't want to post more charts. Here's Europe; Italy is upper middle tier, just above the average.

Thanks for posting additional info and explaining the difference between types of beds.

quote:

Originally posted by tatortodd:
I don't know where the guy got his data from

The article stated that he got his numbers from 2016 data, and you posted more recent data.

Ted Leonsis will still pay Capital One Arena workers despite games canceled due to coronavirus

Caps and a number of other teams are taking a hit to make sure those affected by suspended season can still put bread on the table.

Aaand here we go. City of Berlin bans all public and private congregations of more than 50, effective immediately. Pubs, clubs, gambling halls, betting offices, fairs to be closed. Same for cinemas, theaters, museums, exhibitions and brothels (yup). Restaurants to remain open if tables have a minimum distance of five feet between them.

I'm investing in alcohol and condoms.

From a friend in the healthcare business, you may want to check your inventory of your pain reliever of choice as these may come in short supply.

A satellite hospital of Northwestern Memorial set up a drive thru testing facility late last night, the first facility I’ve seen around here.

Doors slam shut across borderless Europe as coronavirus spreads

Europe’s cherished Schengen network of open internal borders is on the brink of collapse as more and more countries shut their doors in a frantic effort to stave off the coronavirus pandemic, even as experts warn such tactics will delay its spread – but not halt it.

At his daily briefing on the coronavirus emergency on Friday, Luca Zaia, the governor of Italy’s Veneto region, one of Europe’s worst-hit, told reporters that Europe’s borderless zone was “disappearing as we speak”.

“Schengen no longer exists, it will be remembered only in the history books,” Zaia said, pointing to the long lines of traffic stuck at Italy’s northeastern border, where Austrian officials have reintroduced stringent controls.

With Italy reporting the most virus cases and deaths anywhere in the world except China, the pandemic is increasingly wearing on the EU's cherished core principle, which envisions a border-free Europe where citizens can freely live, work and travel.

Austria became the first country to impose drastic curbs on travel from Italy on Wednesday, urgently reinstalling border checkpoints in the exact spots where they had been dismantled back in 1997 when the country joined the Schengen Area.

All travellers seeking to cross the Brennero border from Italy are now required to present health certificates proving they have not contracted the COVID-19 virus – a measure that has slowed traffic on the busy Alpine crossing to a near standstill.

Since then, Slovenia and Switzerland, which also border Italy, have imposed similar curbs. But several other EU nations – including Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Cyprus – have announced restrictions that go far beyond travellers from Italy.

"Most of the cases that have been propagating the coronavirus epidemic in Poland are imported cases," Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters as he announced the closure of his country’s borders with all its neighbours starting at midnight on Saturday.

"We don't want the coronavirus to head our way in droves."

‘Uncharted territory’

The successive border closures came as the World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Friday that Europe had become the pandemic's current “epicenter” after reporting more cases and deaths than the rest of world combined, excluding China.

More than 22,000 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed across Europe, and nearly 1,500 people with the virus have died on the continent – most of them in Italy.

While the virus is spreading across the continent, the rushed actions taken by individual states are highlighting the lack of a coordinated approach to fighting the coronavirus – not least among the European Union’s 27 member states.

The European Commission, the EU's executive body, has recommended coordinated health screenings at the borders as a way to address infections, rather than border closures.

“We’ve seen travel bans and controls being put in place in a number of member states,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Friday. “Certain controls may be justified, but general travel bans are not seen as being the most effective by the World Health Organization. Moreover, they have a strong social and economic impact. They disrupt people’s lives and business across the borders.”

To avoid a patchwork of national policies that are ineffective and cause economic harm, “any measure that is taken must be proportionate" and coordinated with Brussels, she said, suggesting that preliminary checks for signs of infection could be done at the Schengen Area’s borders, both internal and external.

“Member states, especially neighbouring ones, need to work very closely together," Von der Leyen said. "In this way, and it’s the only way, we can make sure that our citizens receive the healthcare that they need immediately, wherever they are.”

But Von der Leyen’s commission, along with other EU institutions, has a very limited role to play in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. It polices the Schengen Area's rules, but individual countries are responsible for their own health and public safety policies.

In a sign of the EU’s limited power, the Danish government also announced late Friday that it was closing all of its borders – land, sea and air – to travellers. Denmark consulted with neighbouring countries prior to the announcement but not with EU officials.

"We are in uncharted territory," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a news conference as he announced the travel ban. "I know that the overall list of measures is very extreme and will be seen as very extreme, but I am convinced that it's worth it." 

‘Foreign disease’

In many ways, the coronavirus pandemic has exacerbated divisions that first came to the fore in 2015, when eastern and central European states closed their borders to migrants and thwarted EU efforts to implement migrant quotas across the bloc.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose country has also banned travel from Italy, has made an explicit link between the two crises.

"We are fighting a two-front war: one front is called migration, and the other one belongs to the coronavirus – there is a logical connection between the two, as both spread with movement," Orban told Hungarian media on Friday.

"Our experience is that foreigners brought in the disease, and that it is spreading among foreigners," he added, in remarks that mirrored US President Donald Trump’s description of the coronavirus as a “foreign disease”.

Trump’s decision on Wednesday to slap a 30-day travel ban on people coming from the Schengen Area has stunned and angered EU officials, who were not consulted prior to the move.

“Instead of tending to the problems of his country, and to a virus that knows no borders, he thinks that he can fight it like people that have a different citizenship than American,” said German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz.

Though it has stepped up monitoring travellers for signs of infection, Germany has so far refused to close its borders. Spain and Italy have also opted to keep borders open, even as they place their own populations under lockdown.

“This virus cares not for borders, be they internal or external,” said Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday as he said his country planned to declare a nationwide state of emergency.

‘Turn off the source’

French President Emmanuel Macron has also been critical of EU members that have unilaterally closed their borders, calling such moves counter-productive and pleading instead for coordination across the bloc. He has stressed the importance of scientific evidence, rather than ideology or political expediency, in guiding the world’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

But just as governments are divided over how to tackle the novel virus, so is the scientific community.

In justifying Trump’s travel ban, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top official on infectious diseases at the US National Institute of Health, noted that 70 percent of new infections could be traced to Europe.

“It was pretty compelling that we needed to turn off the source from that region,” he told a congressional panel on Thursday.

Internal blockades have proved their effectiveness in China, where the virus first originated, said Sterghios Moschos, a virologist at Northumbria University in the UK. Appearing on the FRANCE 24 Debate show, Moschos noted that the blockade of Hubei province “stopped in its tracks the transmission intensity”, thereby sparing other parts of the country.

Other medical experts are doubtful that the Chinese model would prove useful now that the disease has spread across the globe and is being passed through so-called community transmission – among people who haven't travelled overseas.

Dr. Bruce Aylward, who led a World Health Organization team in China as the COVID-19 disease was surging last month, said countries might gain in the short term by limiting travel, but that overall “it doesn't help to restrict movement".

Margaret Harris, a WHO spokesperson and medical doctor currently involved in the virus response, echoed the concerns about the false comfort of closing borders as a delaying tactic.

“You divert a lot of resources when you are focused on closing borders, rather than focusing on protecting your health workers, preparing your health systems and enhancing your disease surveillance,” she told The Intercept.

Even Britain, which was initially exempt from Trump's travel ban, has expressed scepticism about its effectiveness.

"With regard to flight bans, we are always guided by the science as we make our decisions here," Finance Minister Rishi Sunak told BBC radio on Friday.

He added: "The advice we are getting is that there isn't evidence that interventions like closing borders or travel bans are going to have a material effect on the spread of the infection."

https://www.france24.com/en/20...-coronavirus-spreads

The headline's a bit hyperbolic, but still: I would not have expected this development. I'm surprised Brussels isn't going ballistic--given how invested they are to open borders to the flood of migrants from further south.

It’s almost like they need a wall, or something.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Doors slam shut across borderless Europe as coronavirus spreads

[/url]

We were in Prague last week...totally normal, now visiting friends in Zakopane Poland. Yesterday Slovakia closed it's border and Czech republic is limiting entry.

Ukraine is closing tomorrow so we had to rush to find bus tickets for my inlaws so they could beat the deadline.

Not sure if we can get back to Prague we reserved a flight out of Krakow thru Amsterdam...but that flight is canceled.

Now we are hearing we should be able to enter Czech so in the AM we are going to try and if turned away we head to Krakow to reschedule with BA or wait for Delta.

Or we just say " screw it and do spring time in the mountains"

As a side note....if you like skiing or the mountains I cannot recommend Zakopane enough....beautiful and amazing food and people.

Remember when all the demokrats laughed when the President said Mexico would pay for the wall?

quote:

Mexico is considering closing its border to stop Americans bringing coronavirus into its country as US case count passes 2,000

For once, the conversation over closing the US-Mexico border is being driven b Mexican health officials who say they are considering shutting out Americans to keep coronavirus out of their country.

There are currently more than 2,000 cases of the virus in the US and it is spreading rapidly. Forty-three people have died from it.

By contrast in Mexico, there have only been 16 confirmed cases and no deaths.

At a press conference on Friday, health minister Hugo Lopez-Gatell said: 'Mexico wouldn't bring the virus to the United States, rather the United States would bring it here.

'The possible flow of coronavirus would come from the north to the south.

'If it were technically necessary, we would consider mechanisms of restriction or stronger surveillance,' he said.

Health minister Hugo Lopez-Gatell said: 'Mexico wouldn't bring the virus to the United States, rather the United States would
There are now 1,930 cases of coronavirus in the US and 42 people have died

Trump has said little on the subject of coronavirus in Mexico.

Unlike several Latin American countries, Mexico has yet to take measures such as closing schools or banning entry to people coming from places with high numbers of coronavirus cases.

However, the private Tecnologico de Monterrey university said on Thursday it would suspend academic and classes from next week until further notice, while Mexico's National Autonomous University (UNAM) said it would tighten preventative measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

On Friday, Trump tweeted: 'To this point, and because we have had a very strong border policy, we have had 40 deaths related to CoronaVirus.

'If we had weak or open borders, that number would be many times higher!'

Both he and Vice President Mike Pence have blamed the spread of the virus first on China, then on Europe which they now believe is the 'epicenter' of the outbreak.

Trump has suspended all travel from Europe to the US on Friday night at midnight.

On Thursday, he said Americans who were overseas would be tested before they got on their planes and that they would not be allowed to board them if they tested positive for the virus.

Mike Pence said earlier in the day that any American would be able to come back 'regardless' of their condition.

He said they would be funneled through one of 13 airports once they landed back in the US and that they would be screened.

There have however been mixed reports on the extent to which people are being screened, questioned and tested when they arrive back in the US.

Some say they have been able to saunter through customs and have only been asked if they have flu symptoms.

The president will answer questions at the 3 p.m. presser as the House prepares to vote on a coronavirus package, the stock market tries to recover from its worst day since the 1987 economic recession, and schools across the country have closed out of fears of spreading the virus.

He will likely be peppered with questions about his health, whether he should be tested, and why he hasn't into voluntary self-quarantine, despite CDC guidelines describing someone in his situation as 'medium risk' for infection.

The president announced the press conference after reports out of Brazil said the Bolsonaro tested positive for coronavirus. One of the major newspapers in Rio de Janeiro, Journal O Dia, noted The Guardian's Tom Phillips, reported the news of Bolsonaro's positive test.

Bolsonaro, 64, was checked for the disease after his aide Fabio Wajngarten tested positive for it.

But a second test that came back on Friday showed the president tested negative, according to a statement on Bolsonaro's official Facebook page, which is adding to the questions and confusion.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...ead-coronavirus.html

Pretty incredible action by the PM.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
The headline's a bit hyperbolic, but still: I would not have expected this development. I'm surprised Brussels isn't going ballistic--given how invested they are to open borders to the flood of migrants from further south.

What would they do about it?

quote:

Originally posted by lkdr1989:
Remember when all the demokrats laughed when the President said Mexico would pay for the wall?

[QUOTE]
Mexico is considering closing its border to stop Americans bringing coronavirus into its country as US case count passes 2,000