Problem is there is no endgame that either side finds tolerable. Putin's demands make Versailles look charitable. And Ukraine wants it's lands and people back. Not any middle ground to even start talking.

As for Czar Vlad the Pooting, he needs to go. Hoping for the Generals and oligarchs to do the dirty work is probably the best case scenario for us, but our strategy shouldn't be based on that. But the more you think about Russia having to buy arms from Iran to fuel it's war on Ukraine shows how desperate Putin is and how bad his industry is.

Now the world knows that Russia’s army is much less capable than it was thought to be. The world, including Vladimir, is wondering about the capability of other branches of Russia’s military.

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:
All you regime-change armchair-Generals here better understand what you are going to get.

It seems to me the "regime-change armchair-Generals" are those wanting to pull support from Ukraine, and let Putin/Russia run over and take possession of a European country. He attempted this early with a drive towards Kyiv, and was thwarted, even routed, back to Belarus.

While I enjoy watching Russian men & material be destroyed by another rightful army, it's time the U.S. withdraws its capital/material support... the U.S. isn't in Europe and those nations should now take care of it.

We need to defend our border by laying waste at the voting booths to the fucking Commies in office.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:

The only way to end this - for everyone's sake - is to finally bury Stalin's ghost for good and for all. We've never seen a better opportunity for doing so than the one Russia and Ukraine have given us now, so it seems incredibly unlikely that we'll see a better opportunity to do so in the future.

Dude

Do you realize what you are wishing for here?

I'm with PASig on this.
Il Cattivo: You do realize that we've been trying to end war "for good and for all" since Cain and Abel? Wasn't World War I the "war to end all wars"?

Hoo, boy.

OK, guys, explain to me how not pushing for an end to the Cold War is supposed to be to our benefit?

This "cold" conflict has absorbed trillions of taxpayer dollars and decades of peole's lives, and it kept going on and on and on because "we don't dare press for an end to it". Why don't we dare press for an end to it? Because we have a long history of wringing our hands, blindly accepting that the world is gonna glow if Russia blows a wet fart, and then insisting that we shouldn't get involved - no matter how directly Russia's machinations have involved us and how awkwardly we've tried to reacting to Russia in the past.

So. Can we finally get past all the simplistic crap about Cain and Abel and Biden Sucks and OMG I Can Imagine A Nuclear War?

And, unless you can actually document corrupt connections between Biden or the New World Order and the current government of Ukraine, would you please stop wasting everyone's time with conspiracy theories about corruption that you can't prove actually exists?

Come to think of it, if you want to raise hell about where the money is going on the basis of a CBS report (a source every one of you has treated with contempt here for years), then lets go back to what McCarthy actually said: there needs to be more accountability, not a cutoff or diminution of aid. The Ukrainian government, incidentally, seems perfectly agreeable to that. There's a solution on the table - we need to get a Republican majority elected in the House.

Even then, what makes you think the 30% number is accurate? We're sending weapons the Ukrainians need, and we can see them using those weapons in any number of news reports, Russian complaints and social media posts by squad-level grunts. Why would the Ukrainians let anyone get away with selling weapons on the black market when they've shown that they're convinced that their survival depends on using those weapons, in volume, right now?

Because you can "imagine" black market sales? There was one Russian propaganda campaign to push that narrative about a month ago. It collapsed because no one believed it, and no one believed it because no one could come up with proof of any substantive black market arms sales - even with the combined resources of Russia's GRU and FSB at hand. So much for wringing your hands over what you imagine to be true.

Has the war attracted foreign fighters? Sure. Do we have reason to believe that those foreign fighters will fight elsewhere? Well, on the Ukrainian side you have two groups. There are Western Europeans and Americans, none of whom have given any indication of a desire to overthrow European or American governments. How many and what kind of weapons did you expect them to sneak home anyway? There are also Georgians, Chechens and Belarussians. The Georgians will be going home to a country where the Russians have seized a major percentage of the country's territory and are essentially holding it hostage. As far as I'm concerned, those Georgians are welcome to take the experience they've developed and any weapons the Ukrainians will let them take and go kill Russians in their own country. The other two groups, the Chechens and Belarussians, are both composed of men who are eager to fight Russia and who will be going home to help their countries overthrow Russian overlordship. If they take weapons with them to use against the Russians, I have no problem with that.

Yes, there are also foreign fighters on the other side, including Syrians hired in bulk (but not otherwise notable on the battlefield), and Wagner is growing like an accordion. First, its impossible for anyone outside of the Kremlin to control that. Second, these are the types of guys that act like rabid dogs. Third, this is the best opportunity of making sure they don't survive to go on and do whatever evil it is you fear they'll do.

Many opposed to America's support for Ukraine will reflexively throw up their hands and shriek about a nuclear war that no one has yet had any reason to actually expect - Putin's made dozens of threats and hasn't even moved forces into place to make good on them yet. Many will insist its not our buisness, and then go back to bitching about paying for NATO and wondering how Russia gets away with military flight incursions deep into US airspace and playing the spoiler every time we set diplomatic initiatives in place to secure peace. Many oppose the war in a reflexive response to Biden, although God only knows why anyone would let a moron like Biden drive their thinking.

Filter out the static of what could exist and what you might imagine. Take a long, close look at what's actually there. The amount of BS background noise alone should be enough to show you that its all too easy to be a casualty in an information war.

To those of us calling for the removal of Putin from power how do we know that his replacement would be more agreeable to the aims of the west regarding Ukraine then Russia’s current ruler? The answer is that we don’t know and my guess is that Putin’s replacement would be even more combative against the - in the eyes of the Russians - existential threat the west poses to Russia. Who would we pick? Do we really think that someone less ruthless than Putin would be able to sit on the lid of the boiling ethnic cauldron that makes up the modern Russian state? A short look at history should inform us as to how successful America’s attempts at regime changes have worked.

The other critical issue that we seem to ignore is: why, after all of the verifiable falsehoods that our senior officials in the military, intelligence, the state department, and in politics have told to the American public, why do we believe them now? The same cadre of the intelligence community who knowingly lied to us in writing stating that the Biden laptop was Russian disinformation are now in charge of the US narrative on Ukraine and we believe them?

It seems to me that the US lacks manufacturing surge capacity as we had at the start of WW2. We are way too dependent (as are many other countries) on critical foreign manufactured parts to supply the needs of the military. An escalation in Europe might well expose this dependency.

There needs to be a negotiated settlement to this conflict to secure long-term stability in Europe and, more importantly for our long-term interests. Frankly Biden needs to be politically castrated as he would be seen by the Russians as a bad faith actor (quite rightly). Zelensky needs to be told to shut up and not given a vote. We can force Russia to the table, and threaten the destruction of their economy, by expanding domestic oil production to the point where world oil prices collapse.

Assuming that we as a nation survive this (a probable outcome) we are going to be ones who will be forced to rebuild Ukraine and supply military forces with which to keep a vengeful Russia at bay.

Silent

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
While I enjoy watching Russian men & material be destroyed by another rightful army, it's time the U.S. withdraws its capital/material support... the U.S. isn't in Europe and those nations should now take care of it.

We need to defend our border by laying waste at the voting booths to the fucking Commies in office.

EXACTLY!!! We have enough friggin' problems on our own shores to go snooping up the skirt of another. ERADICATE COMMUNISM FROM THIS COUNTRY FIRST!!!!! Just sayin'.

^^^ Can we not chew gum and walk at the same time? I mean, I know Biden can't, but how about the rest of the country?

quote:

Originally posted by Silent:
It seems to me that the US lacks manufacturing surge capacity as we had at the start of WW2.

We had to gear up manufacturing then and we're gearing up manufacturing now. You can find references in the press to increased production of HIMARs and artillery shells, and an interim increase in production of Stingers while we transition to a different weapon for the Stinger's intended uses.

quote:

There needs to be a negotiated settlement to this conflict to secure long-term stability in Europe and, more importantly for our long-term interests.

Two questions -

- If you don't trust this government to help Ukraine wage this war, why would you trust this government with achieving a peace that actually ends the fighting and the potential conflict between the US and Russia? Remember, every time Russia aggressed without being punched in the nose (see Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine - we're talking multiple incidents going all the way back to 1999), the Russians have engaged in aggression again.

- What, exactly, are the long term interests we are protecting by tolerating Putin's little snits and rampages? All we're accomplishing by doing that is inviting Putin to do exactly the same thing again.

quote:

Assuming that we as a nation survive this (a probable outcome) we are going to be ones who will be forced to rebuild Ukraine and supply military forces with which to keep a vengeful Russia at bay.

Or we could help Ukraine recover its oil, gas and coal fields in the east, secure their thousands of acres of already-profitable farmland and support them in their efforts to get compensation from Russia. A durable peace (as in, Putin's been battered so badly that he'll be forced to give up his imperial gamesmanship for a while) will throw open the door massive private investment from North America and the rest of Europe - especially those parts of Europe with a vested interest in having a stable, honest and competent provider of oil and gas. There's no reason to think that we're going to have to put together a Marshall Plan for Ukraine or that the Euros (with Ukraine being on fast track for EU membership) won't participate in helping Ukraine rebuild.

Cattivo, you make some very good points.

I’d say that we had to adjust what manufacturing plants made during WW2 as opposed to the apparent need of today to build manufacturing capacity. And, while solvable, one wonders where the skilled labor force would come from. For sure “things are in the pipeline” but the domestic manufacture of chips and semi-conductors seems to be a few years off. Though to be fair, I’m not terribly concerned about China successfully invading Taiwan (chip manufacturing). Given the mission, I’m led to believe that our below sea surface capability would be able to prevent the successful egress of a tug boat from any CCP harbor; and I would imagine China knows this.

You are correct I don’t trust this current administration. Thus the reason to politically castrate Biden. Therein sits my inability to trust virtually anything said by our political and intelligence community leadership. Which includes the murky statements made regarding goals and objectives in Ukraine. Frankly, I’d be agreeable to a third party to coordinate the negotiations.

The long-term interests: restore a focus to the existential domestic threats facing this nation; Trade deficits, private and government debt, national demographic trends, and drugs (at the current rate of drug overdose deaths, we will loose 1 million Americans every decade).

We survived the invasion of Georgia,. At the time we were involved in a stupendous waste of lives and treasure in Afghanistan, so it’s difficult to see what we could have done different. Our inability to react to the invasion of Georgia might be connected to our foreign affairs folly of “nation building.”

I don’t stay up worrying about Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons. But Putin gets to sleep soundly every night knowing that we won’t use the most productive weapon at our disposal; energy production. While Obama exaggerated the situation he once stated that Russia was a gas station with an army. We need to remove the credibility of Russia’s energy threats. But simply cutting off supplies without a viable alternative is foolish beyond belief. We’ve not done this (energy production as a weapon) since the Reagan years and while it’s doubtful that Saudi Arabia would help this time (Biden again); however, we have the domestic resources and the productive genius in our energy sector to flood the market with energy. But we are led by an administration engaged in a theatre act of seizing the yachts of Russian oil barons rather than decapitating their ability to generate future income a thing that would actually create tangible internal pressure against the expansionists in the Russian government. In short, expanding energy production provides the largest stick with the fewest downsides.

As you mentioned for sure Ukraine has tremendous natural resources along with some of the most deep and fertile soil in the world. Corruption seems to stand in the way of Ukraine’s ability to take full advantage of these resources (of course the same thing could be said about us ). The solution to the issues of corruption and infrastructure development should be left in the hands of the Ukrainian people.

What I fear, should we continue to steer on the present heading, is that we will be left with is an unsolvable mess with the loss of tens of thousands of lives. This seems to have been the result of our many other foreign military interventions. In my view, this is what we should have learned.

Silent

quote:

Originally posted by Silent:
manufacture of chips and semi-conductors seems to be a few years off.

I agree that Red China doesn't have quite the horses yet to take Taiwan if we wish to prevent it. I'd also add that Japan is actually looking to rearm, which should give Xi even more to think about should he contemplate telling his military to invade Taiwan.

Having said that, we do have an existing, ongoing and effective source of chips in Taiwan - as long as we ensure Taiwan remains free. Neither Russia nor Red China can say the same.

quote:

You are correct I don’t trust this current administration. Thus the reason to politically castrate Biden. Therein sits my inability to trust virtually anything said by our political and intelligence community leadership. Which includes the murky statements made regarding goals and objectives in Ukraine. Frankly, I’d be agreeable to a third party to coordinate the negotiations.

This raises a few points.

- If you're simply reacting to Biden - even if your sole desire is to oppose him and eventually see him kicked out of the White House - then you are, for all effects and purposes, letting Biden do your thinking for you. How? You're letting him decide what your priorities are, you're letting him decide what sides there are to the question, and you're letting him decide which of those sides he's chosen you are on.

- I can't begin to argue with your distrust of Biden and the current weasels who've denominated themselves the Powers That Be In The USA. I can't see how there's any question that you're right in calling what Uncah Ho and Co. consider their goals and objectives "murky". The solution is to focus on Ukraine's stated goals and objectives, since Ukraine's going to have to sign off on any decisions about the war that get made.

- A third party makes sense in abstract, but what can a third party do to (1) force the parties to come to an agreement without simply telling Ukraine to take what Russia's willing to "give" until the next time Russia invades Ukraine, or (2) enforce any such agreement if Russia decides to ignore or "reimagine" the terms they agreed to - just as they have with the Minsk Accords?

quote:

The long-term interests: restore a focus to the existential domestic threats facing this nation; Trade deficits, private and government debt, national demographic trends, and drugs (at the current rate of drug overdose deaths, we will loose 1 million Americans every decade).

None of those things requires that we drop support for Ukraine. All of those things require that we win majorities in both houses of Congress in this fall's elections and beat the Dems so soundly in 2024 that they can't steal the next Presidency.

Incidentally, if anyone thinks that a Ukrainian victory over Russia will somehow redound to the Dems' benefit politically, I'd love to know how. No one believes that Biden is responsible for Ukraine's success, and no one is ignoring the inflation, the crime rate or the rest of America's problems just because they're distracted by Ukraine or believe that only the Dems will support Ukraine. The truth is that you just don't hear most conservatives in the US opposing our support for Ukraine, and that's for two reasons - (1) we can walk and chew gun at the same time, and (2) conservatives have always been the first Americans to stand up and oppose Russian imperialism.

quote:

We survived the invasion of Georgia.

Yes, but the theory is one of "death by a thousand cuts". First there's a small incursion in Georgia, then another one in Ukraine, then one in Moldova, then a couple more in Ukraine, none of which seem important enough for the U.S. to react to in any substantive way. At the end of the process, though, we're just getting started when the Russians (or Chinese - remember all those Pacific "islands") are almost finished and there's no point in trying to reverse what's almost happened. The other side is relying on our ignoring a bunch of small steps that eventually add up to a major shift in international geopolitics and embolden Russia (and China) to pursue even bigger efforts to expand their borders and their arbitrary control over others. We don't have to 'nation build' - we just have to create circumstances where other nations can build themselves without undue foreign interference.

quote:

I don’t stay up worrying about Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons. But Putin gets to sleep soundly every night knowing that we won’t use the most productive weapon at our disposal; energy production.

Well, now wait a minute. Reagan was President in the days before directional drilling in the US, before new oil fields were opened up to the West from Turkey to northern Iraq, and before massive natural gas fields were discovered off of the coasts of Israel and Turkey. Cutting off Russian supply (which, estimates run, was never more than 13% to 30% of US consumption) is something we and Europe can now do because alternative supplies do in fact exist. The US is shipping liquified natural gas to Europe even as we speak (post?).

Yes, of course, Uncah Ho is getting in the way of oil production here in the USA. Well, that's a problem that we have to solve here at home with our votes, by monitoring elections, and by effectively opposing Dem electoral shenanigans. Whether or not we can do that has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not we provide weapons and intelligence to Ukraine.

quote:

As you mentioned for sure Ukraine has tremendous natural resources along with some of the most deep and fertile soil in the world. Corruption seems to stand in the way of Ukraine’s ability to take full advantage of these resources (of course the same thing could be said about us ). The solution to the issues of corruption and infrastructure development should be left in the hands of the Ukrainian people.

Well, they elected a government in 2019 that was a reaction to, and a rejection of, corrupt oligarchy. They are now trying to weed out the corrupt in their own government while simultaneously waging a defensive war against Russia. We all saw how tough it was for Trump to try to drain the swamp; the Ukrainians are going to have to be given a chance to make it work.

quote:

What I fear, should we continue to steer on the present heading, is that we will be left with is an unsolvable mess with the loss of tens of thousands of lives. This seems to have been the result of our many other foreign military interventions. In my view, this is what we should have learned.

Then surely the path of wisdom is to look at what's the same and what's different. We're not sending troops overseas who are trying to support the diplomats while the diplomats try to cobble together a functional government out of a bunch of factions that they have no familiarity with or (real) influence over. Ukraine has a functional government with genuine popular support. Nor are we trying to do this (even in practice) all by ourselves. We're sending intelligence, weapons and money along with Canada, most of Europe, Japan and others while letting the Ukrainians fight their own war.

Incidentally, take a look at the results of the Ukrainians' willingness to fight their own war - Russia has retreated from northern Ukraine, is evacuating Crimea, has lost thousands of square miles in central and eastern Ukraine and seems to be well on its way to being kicked out of Kherson in south central Ukraine.

In other words, no troops, just results.

quote:

Originally posted by Il Cattivo:
OK, guys, explain to me how not pushing for an end to the Cold War is supposed to be to our benefit?

This "cold" conflict has absorbed trillions of taxpayer dollars and decades of peole's lives, and it kept going on and on and on because "we don't dare press for an end to it". Why don't we dare press for an end to it? Because we have a long history of wringing our hands, blindly accepting that the world is gonna glow if Russia blows a wet fart, and then insisting that we shouldn't get involved - no matter how directly Russia's machinations have involved us and how awkwardly we've tried to reacting to Russia in the past.

Now I was a teenager in the 80s, but there were certainly people pushing for an end to the Cold War, and through strength rather than surrender. Of course every self-declared sane mind accused Reagan and his European allies of being warmongers driving the world into nuclear annihilation for countering Soviet SS-20 IRBMs with Pershing II and GLCM, SDI, talking of Evil Empires, "we begin bombing in five minutes" and "tear down this Wall", supplying weapons to the Mujaheddin, supporting Solidarnośc in Poland, and generally challenging the Soviets at every turn on both what they considered their home turf and where they tried to expand to. In fact some protest posters from then would only need some minor rework to rhyme with "'24".

quote:

What, exactly, are the long term interests we are protecting by tolerating Putin's little snits and rampages?

What, exactly, are the long term interests we are protecting in Ukrainian corruption?
Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden? Mitch McConnell?

quote:

I agree that Red China doesn't have quite the horses yet to take Taiwan if we wish to prevent it. I'd also add that Japan is actually looking to rearm, which should give Xi even more to think about should he contemplate telling his military to invade Taiwan.

We have far more interest in protecting Taiwan than we do Ukraine. But yes, Japan should and must rearm.

The thing is China has noticed how the world turned on Russia for invading Ukraine. And they are calculating the what if's on any response to their invasion of Taiwan. China losing access to western markets and financial institutions would hurt them a lot more than any military option we send their way. So yes, helping Ukraine is doing a lot more than just helping a democratically elected government stand up to a Communist tyrant.

And Japan is re-arming. Their Izumo class destroyers are an interesting design choice. For a destroyer.. Between Russia occupying Japanese Islands in their north, and China saber rattling towards their islands in their south, they know their self defense forces are going to be needed more than ever.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

What, exactly, are the long term interests we are protecting by tolerating Putin's little snits and rampages?

What, exactly, are the long term interests we are protecting in Ukrainian corruption?

Can you show us that we're actually "protecting Ukrainian corruption"?

Our interest lies in blunting Russian expansionism, hostility and the subversion of ourselves and our allies. It's particularly in our interest to do so where, as here, we can do so very effectively without being in a face-to-face confrontation that can be expected to automatically lead to a direct, all-out nuclear war. To take off on what IrishWind said, our interest also lies in making Red China think twice (or three times, or a million times) before launching a war to retake Taiwan, and that interest is served by showing Xi that we'll stand up to Putin. This, in turn, is necessary because we've been so passive in the past.

The simplistic answer is that "WE" have no input or control over what is happening. I doubt Biden's administration does either. Just doing what they are told.
Freedom is an myth we were taught.

Jesus

Ease up there, Eeyore.

quote:

Our interest lies in blunting Russian expansionism, hostility and the subversion of ourselves and our allies. It's particularly in our interest to do so where, as here, we can do so very effectively without being in a face-to-face confrontation that can be expected to automatically lead to a direct, all-out nuclear war. To take off on what IrishWind said, our interest also lies in making Red China think twice (or three times, or a million times) before launching a war to retake Taiwan, and that interest is served by showing Xi that we'll stand up to Putin. This, in turn, is necessary because we've been so passive in the past.

This!!!!!!!!

Russian Defense Ministry officially blamed British Navy for planning, provisioning, and executing Nordstream sabotage.

Skynews

Hindustani Times