quote:

part of the problem is figuring out who is in charge

I have to believe that the combination of Israeli Intelligence and local dissidents has provided the location of military sites - - targets of opportunity.

The problem for us is we avoid civilian, non-combatants damage to the extreme, while the Mullahs utilize them as shields. They locate military operations under/around hospitals, schools and apartment buildings, not giving a damn about civilian casualties!

I have no idea how to work around that strategy!

You are correct and that we are not negotiating with the IRGC but rather they’re civilian government or whoever they’ve decided to put in charge of that now

But the larger problem is the civilian government does not appear to have any control or influence over the IRGC which means that there’s no reason to expect them to abide by an agreement for which they’re not really a party

I see no way other than destruction of the power generating systems and transportation corridors.

Without power, missiles cannot fly. Without power, radar won't work.

Without corridors, weapons can't be moved from place to place.

I am grateful for attempts to avoid total chaos in that backward and ill-behaved nation-state, but it is past time to finish this.

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:
From what I have read, part of the problem is figuring out who is in charge. I think we negotiated the ceasefire with one group and the other never agreed to it. Or maybe there are multiple groups, who knows. It's sort of like Iraq now, Saddam was the glue that held it all together and once he was gone, it was a free-for-all. I am not sure what our options are at this point, but a ground invasion is off the table.

Because of the asymmetric nature of the enemy themselves as well as their methods of fighting, I am not "not sure" what our options are... I'd say smoke everything related to military assets and ops. Why the hell is that so difficult ? POTUS has said that was already done, but obviously his hyperbole got ahead of the situation as it has unfolded.

Good lord, we all pretty much knew this would happen, but I guess Trump had bigger plans, and who knows how it will turn out.

Meeting on Tuesday in Doha.

quote:

Originally posted by 4MUL8R:
I see no way other than destruction of the power generating systems and transportation corridors.

This.

I hope they leave the generating stations alone and go after the distribution networks. Bring down a few miles of strategic towers.

Same with oil and gas. We are all going to need the major infrastructure assets. Go after the power.

We are trying to decapitate the military structure and not the people.

^^^^^^
I’ve long thought similarly. And they can’t put women and children as human shields at all points of the power transmission system.

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:
From what I have read, part of the problem is figuring out who is in charge. I think we negotiated the ceasefire with one group and the other never agreed to it. Or maybe there are multiple groups, who knows. It's sort of like Iraq now, Saddam was the glue that held it all together and once he was gone, it was a free-for-all. I am not sure what our options are at this point, but a ground invasion is off the table.

Perhaps consider an alternative explanation, all Iranian "leaders" don't know how to tell the truth, and are lying through their teeth.

"Multiple groups" vying for power maybe, but one is hardly better than another. Power abhors a vacuum, let's hope they will be too busy fighting each other in an effort to gain control of their country than to worry about International complications. So far that hasn't been happening, to a large extent at least, but I'd guess some resolution is coming.

I am sure that Israel is fanning the flames of dissent, but why aren't the Kurds, and Iraqis stepping in to take advantage of this mess? Not to mention the great unwashed Iranian populace? I can only surmise that the mullahs believe they have things more under control than we'd like to think.

quote:

Originally posted by wrightd:
It seems for now Iran's population isn't ready to throw off their government, understandable if the shortages and general pain of living isn't hard enough, or if they just don't want to get shot or hung, so since they're not headed for an inflection point in the near term, we're probably stuck with the current continuation of the old boss, or the new boss that's just like the old boss, either way everyone stays screwed. The real solution may be more like a purge in the biblical sense, but obviously that's not an option at this time, like it was securing full surrender and prosecution of Germany and Japan at the end of WWII.

I can't explain it, but it just feels like the Iranians just aren't up for it, they're just too accustomed to living under a black cloud, and as nasty as it is, it's something they understand and navigate on a daily basis.

You all do realize that Iran had a democratically elected government in 1953 that got the funny idea that their oil was their oil.

But the imperial democracies of UK and US decided that it was not Iran's oil and overthrew said democratically elected government and gave them the Shah instead. Not very democratic at the least.

As far as Iran's current form of governance - again, read 'Going to Tehran' to educate yourselves, before spewing off talking points fed to us for at least 47 years.

We do not care about other's form of governance as long as they bow every morning toward Washington DC.

quote:

Originally posted by 4MUL8R:
I see no way other than destruction of the power generating systems and transportation corridors.

Without power, missiles cannot fly. Without power, radar won't work.

Without corridors, weapons can't be moved from place to place.

I am grateful for attempts to avoid total chaos in that backward and ill-behaved nation-state, but it is past time to finish this.

Yea, let's do it and see where Operation FAFO takes us next.

Iran does not need nukes. Their conventional missile supply in their unique geographic region is good enough.

Perhaps Iran with conventional missiles that the Patriot system, and THAAD system can't stop - only a 2-3 percent hit rate, will take out the sandbox's raw energy sources - 20 pct of the Oil, 30-45 pct of LNG, 30-45 pct of the global fertilizer supply. 30 pct of the Helium and about 40 pct of the sulphur supply.

BTW, Patriot is very good against aircraft and drones, but shit against missiles.

We're off the cliff already, we just do not know how severe the fall will be.

I'm hearing end of July, mid-August at the latest and we are really fucked, unless we get the 10-12 million barrels per day we are short now, flowing, like now. And even then we'll have pain for 6-8 more months, just not a global depression.

China supposedly from my sources has been releasing several million barrels per day to Asia from its vast strategic oil reserves. Plus the several million barrels per day/week we are releasing. But there is a bottom in both of these band aids.