quote:

part of the problem is figuring out who is in charge

I have to believe that the combination of Israeli Intelligence and local dissidents has provided the location of military sites - - targets of opportunity.

The problem for us is we avoid civilian, non-combatants damage to the extreme, while the Mullahs utilize them as shields. They locate military operations under/around hospitals, schools and apartment buildings, not giving a damn about civilian casualties!

I have no idea how to work around that strategy!

You are correct and that we are not negotiating with the IRGC but rather they’re civilian government or whoever they’ve decided to put in charge of that now

But the larger problem is the civilian government does not appear to have any control or influence over the IRGC which means that there’s no reason to expect them to abide by an agreement for which they’re not really a party

I see no way other than destruction of the power generating systems and transportation corridors.

Without power, missiles cannot fly. Without power, radar won't work.

Without corridors, weapons can't be moved from place to place.

I am grateful for attempts to avoid total chaos in that backward and ill-behaved nation-state, but it is past time to finish this.

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:
From what I have read, part of the problem is figuring out who is in charge. I think we negotiated the ceasefire with one group and the other never agreed to it. Or maybe there are multiple groups, who knows. It's sort of like Iraq now, Saddam was the glue that held it all together and once he was gone, it was a free-for-all. I am not sure what our options are at this point, but a ground invasion is off the table.

Because of the asymmetric nature of the enemy themselves as well as their methods of fighting, I am not "not sure" what our options are... I'd say smoke everything related to military assets and ops. Why the hell is that so difficult ? POTUS has said that was already done, but obviously his hyperbole got ahead of the situation as it has unfolded.

Good lord, we all pretty much knew this would happen, but I guess Trump had bigger plans, and who knows how it will turn out.

Meeting on Tuesday in Doha.

quote:

Originally posted by 4MUL8R:
I see no way other than destruction of the power generating systems and transportation corridors.

This.

I hope they leave the generating stations alone and go after the distribution networks. Bring down a few miles of strategic towers.

Same with oil and gas. We are all going to need the major infrastructure assets. Go after the power.

We are trying to decapitate the military structure and not the people.

^^^^^^
I’ve long thought similarly. And they can’t put women and children as human shields at all points of the power transmission system.

quote:

Originally posted by AirmanJeff:
From what I have read, part of the problem is figuring out who is in charge. I think we negotiated the ceasefire with one group and the other never agreed to it. Or maybe there are multiple groups, who knows. It's sort of like Iraq now, Saddam was the glue that held it all together and once he was gone, it was a free-for-all. I am not sure what our options are at this point, but a ground invasion is off the table.

Perhaps consider an alternative explanation, all Iranian "leaders" don't know how to tell the truth, and are lying through their teeth.

"Multiple groups" vying for power maybe, but one is hardly better than another. Power abhors a vacuum, let's hope they will be too busy fighting each other in an effort to gain control of their country than to worry about International complications. So far that hasn't been happening, to a large extent at least, but I'd guess some resolution is coming.

I am sure that Israel is fanning the flames of dissent, but why aren't the Kurds, and Iraqis stepping in to take advantage of this mess? Not to mention the great unwashed Iranian populace? I can only surmise that the mullahs believe they have things more under control than we'd like to think.

quote:

Originally posted by wrightd:
It seems for now Iran's population isn't ready to throw off their government, understandable if the shortages and general pain of living isn't hard enough, or if they just don't want to get shot or hung, so since they're not headed for an inflection point in the near term, we're probably stuck with the current continuation of the old boss, or the new boss that's just like the old boss, either way everyone stays screwed. The real solution may be more like a purge in the biblical sense, but obviously that's not an option at this time, like it was securing full surrender and prosecution of Germany and Japan at the end of WWII.

I can't explain it, but it just feels like the Iranians just aren't up for it, they're just too accustomed to living under a black cloud, and as nasty as it is, it's something they understand and navigate on a daily basis.

You all do realize that Iran had a democratically elected government in 1953 that got the funny idea that their oil was their oil.

But the imperial democracies of UK and US decided that it was not Iran's oil and overthrew said democratically elected government and gave them the Shah instead. Not very democratic at the least.

As far as Iran's current form of governance - again, read 'Going to Tehran' to educate yourselves, before spewing off talking points fed to us for at least 47 years.

We do not care about other's form of governance as long as they bow every morning toward Washington DC.

quote:

Originally posted by 4MUL8R:
I see no way other than destruction of the power generating systems and transportation corridors.

Without power, missiles cannot fly. Without power, radar won't work.

Without corridors, weapons can't be moved from place to place.

I am grateful for attempts to avoid total chaos in that backward and ill-behaved nation-state, but it is past time to finish this.

Yea, let's do it and see where Operation FAFO takes us next.

Iran does not need nukes. Their conventional missile supply in their unique geographic region is good enough.

Perhaps Iran with conventional missiles that the Patriot system, and THAAD system can't stop - only a 2-3 percent hit rate, will take out the sandbox's raw energy sources - 20 pct of the Oil, 30-45 pct of LNG, 30-45 pct of the global fertilizer supply. 30 pct of the Helium and about 40 pct of the sulphur supply.

BTW, Patriot is very good against aircraft and drones, but shit against missiles.

We're off the cliff already, we just do not know how severe the fall will be.

I'm hearing end of July, mid-August at the latest and we are really fucked, unless we get the 10-12 million barrels per day we are short now, flowing, like now. And even then we'll have pain for 6-8 more months, just not a global depression.

China supposedly from my sources has been releasing several million barrels per day to Asia from its vast strategic oil reserves. Plus the several million barrels per day/week we are releasing. But there is a bottom in both of these band aids.

WSJ

Trump Briefed on All-Out War Options in Iran but Opts to Stick With Talks
The president has told aides that he is fine if negotiations with Tehran blow past an Aug. 18 deadline for a nuclear deal, officials say

WASHINGTON—President Trump has weighed a return to all-out war with Iran, holding multiple conversations in recent days with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine on more strikes, but has decided to stick with diplomatic talks for now, according to U.S. officials familiar with the discussion.

The conversations have centered on whether the U.S. should abandon negotiations and resume full-scale attacks on Iran, the officials said, a move some of them describe as “finishing the job.” While not making a final decision, Trump has told aides he believes another round of full-scale attacks could derail diplomacy and hurt Washington’s chances of ultimately dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump also has told aides that he is fine if negotiations with Tehran blow past an Aug. 18 deadline for a nuclear deal, the officials said, a decision that gives the talks more time to work. Meanwhile, the president said he is currently satisfied with ordering one-off strikes on Iran when it violates the “memorandum of understanding,” which sparked back-and-forth fighting over the weekend that undermined a fragile ceasefire clinched two weeks ago.

https://www.wsj.com/world/midd...lks-98304b5b?mod=mhp

This is the strangest war I've ever known about. Are there any wars in the history that were any stranger than this ? After looking up asymmetric/irregular warfare in the wiki, I imagine there have been some very strange situations like this one.

I wonder if any side in wars past just got sick of the bullshit and just went biblical and turned the enemy into the modern equivalent of a glass parking lot. If not, how bad can things get before something breaks one way or the other ?

If Iran is too big for Israel to take care of themselves, and I've heard that's exactly the case, they what options does Israel have left ? Even if they nuked the capital, the country's radicals would be even more motivated to destroy Israel than they already are, and they're pretty damn well motivated already.

It seems there is no solution anyone is willing to implement, except continued suffering for all sides, including all of Iran's neighbors, Israel, and the the US. If that's the case I guess that's why the topic has mutated into a nagging fly everyone wants to ignore for the time being.

My guess is the Persians are a smaller minority that portrayed, and that most Iranians like living in a hell hole.

It’s cultural. Think of the kind of government the Democrats would set up, if they really got their chance.

You’d have to kill off most of them, to get out of it, and it would be an ongoing war.

We’re either going to have to take the straits ourselves - not sure why we haven’t. And be Constantinople, fighting off constant attacks, or just kill them all, or seize the oil infrastructure, and put all revenues in a “trust fund”, while they sort out the Persian vs Iran thing, with us probably really screwing up on who we provide weapons and training to.

Seizing the oil, and giving the Kurds a state, would at least be logical.

Honestly, I think that part of the world would understand a more powerful nation seizing a resource and taking it.

They’re going to need 40 years under law giver, to stop being slaves. And lawgivers are not nice people.

quote:

You’d have to kill off most of them, to get out of it, and it would be an ongoing war.

We’re either going to have to take the straits ourselves - not sure why we haven’t. And be Constantinople, fighting off constant attacks, or just kill them all, or seize the oil infrastructure, and put all revenues in a “trust fund”, while they sort out the Persian vs Iran thing, with us probably really screwing up on who we provide weapons and training to.

I think that's the kind of thing we want to avoid. We elected DJT to keep us out of these never-ending, forever wars in the middle east.

The goal here was limited: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon: Strike their nuclear capability.

Jmho, President Trump is playing a longer game now than at the beginning. His initial optimism of a quick Iranian capitulation was proven unjustified. The Islamist zealotry turned out to be bottomless.

But the real issue of global oil disruption demanded that something had to change or there would be very serious economic and political problems. Winning the midterm elections is also critical.

So Trump pushed for a negotiated settlement, but the goals remain firm of no nukes, and a freely open Strait of Hormuz. Iran can prove themselves worthy of a permanent peace, or not.

It is a smart strategy by Trump.

If Iran fails to join the civilized world, the military can quickly take out enough leadership and infrastructure to neuter Iran. I think the timeline is after the midterms, unless Iran does something horrendous. In that case the response will be swift and overwhelming.

Domestic politics, i.e. anti-American leftist activism, and the global economy made it impossible to continue a limited military campaign.

quote:

Originally posted by Fly-Sig:

Domestic politics, i.e. anti-American leftist activism, and the global economy made it impossible to continue a limited military campaign.

Iran is playing for time knowing that eventually the Dems will be back in power and that they will have a friend in a weak, leftist Democrat America.
Hopefully they are defanged before that can ever happen.

quote:

This is the strangest war I've ever known about. Are there any wars in the history that were any stranger than this ?

"Football War" between Honduras and El Salvador, 1969 Although their problems went deeper, the immediate trigger was a lost soccer game.
Anglo-Zanzibar War, 1896, lasted ~38 minutes

quote:

This is the strangest war I've ever known about. Are there any wars in the history that were any stranger than this ? After looking up asymmetric/irregular warfare in the wiki, I imagine there have been some very strange situations like this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_War_(1859)
The Pig War was a confrontation in 1859 between the United States and the United Kingdom over the British–U.S. border in the San Juan Islands, between Vancouver Island (present-day Canada) and the Washington Territory (present-day State of Washington). The Pig War, so called because it was triggered by the shooting of a pig, is also called the Pig Episode, the Pig and Potato War, the San Juan Boundary Dispute, and the Northwestern Boundary Dispute. Despite being referred to as a "war", there were no human casualties on either side.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Jenkins%27_Ear

The War of Jenkins' Ear[a] was fought between Great Britain and Spain from 1739 to 1748. Most of the fighting took place in New Granada and the Caribbean Sea, with major operations over by 1742. It is considered a related conflict of the 1740 to 1748 War of the Austrian Succession.

The name derives from Robert Jenkins, a British sea captain whose ear was allegedly severed in April 1731 by Spanish coast guards searching his ship for contraband. In 1738, opposition politicians in the British Parliament used the incident to incite support for a war against Spain.[2]

quote:

Originally posted by wrightd:
This is the strangest war I've ever known about. Are there any wars in the history that were any stranger than this ?

Why yes, the Emu war of 1932.