Fraud Analyst Finds Average of 2 to 3 Percent Shift for Biden in Counties That Used Dominion

https://www.theepochtimes.com/...reaking-2020-12-15-4

A man who’s made a living developing fraud detection algorithms has discovered a curious phenomenon: Counties that started using Dominion Voting Systems machines have on average moved by 2 to 3 points to the Democrat presidential candidate from the Republican compared to counties that didn’t adopt the machines.

The difference persisted even after he controlled for a number of factors, including county population and various demographic characteristics.

“I recommend we audit the machines,” he concluded.

The man is Ben Turner, who used to be the chief actuary at Texas Mutual Workers’ Compensation Insurance. He now runs Fraud Spotters, a consultancy specializing in detecting insurance fraud.

The Epoch Times replicated his initial analysis using the same data he used and arrived at the same results.

Turner told The Epoch Times that he’s not making any specific allegation against Dominion; he’s simply reporting what he found.

Dominion didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment. The company has for years been criticized over alleged vulnerabilities in its system. It has previously denied that its machines can be used to switch votes from one candidate to another.

Turner reached his conclusion despite being initially incredulous about claims that the Dominion machines affected the election outcome.

While a Republican himself, virtually all of his colleagues and peers are Democrats, he said in a phone call. The outrageousness of the election fraud allegations made him question whether he was on the “wrong team,” he said.

“I don’t know how to process these allegations,” he said in a recent blog post. “They sound so extreme and far-fetched that they are easy to blow off as ridiculous.”

But he also saw some mainstream concerns about election systems security, pointing to an HBO documentary released earlier this year on the topic.

Given his expertise, he decided to look into the claims just to get some clarity for himself.

Eventually, however, he realized he needed to go public.

“I kind of was too afraid to go public because I knew that it won’t help me in terms of, you know, half the population now thinks that I’m a tin-foil-hat person. And I’m aware of that,” he said.

“But I just decided that if nobody can prove me wrong, it’s not fair for me to withhold this information, and that it belongs in the hands of the public.

“If I’ve done something wrong with the analysis, then maybe somebody out there will prove it wrong, and that’s fine with me. I’d rather get to the truth than be right. I felt like if I didn’t publish this, I’m a coward.”

He looked at how, county-by-county, election results changed between the 2008 and 2020 presidential races, measuring whether adoption of Dominion would have any overall effect on the changes. He picked the 2008 election because, at the time, only New York State had widely adopted Dominion, according to data from VerifiedVoting.Org. He excluded New York from the analysis, leaving him 657 counties that have adopted Dominion and 2,388 that have not as of 2020.

He found that Dominion use was associated with a 1.55 percentage point decrease in the Republican vote and a 1.55 percentage point increase in the Democratic vote in the presidential race.

He controlled for the differences in county population, the number of votes cast, urban/rural population split, population growth, international immigration rate, low-education population, high “natural amenity” areas, high “creative class” population, and manufacturing dependency.

Later, he added seven more control factors to the analysis, including race, voter preference, and population. Not only did the “Dominion effect” persist, but the probability of his results being a fluke decreased.

The effect somewhat decreased, to a 2.84-point shift, when he also controlled for age.

The probability that the results occurred by chance or due to some unobserved factor was about 1 in 1,000, the analysis showed.

In his estimation, the results were significant enough to potentially flip elections in at least four states. In Georgia, only about 0.24 percent of votes would need to be shifted from one candidate to the other for the state to flip. In Arizona, only one county—the populous Maricopa County—uses Dominion, but the margin there is so thin that shifting 0.51 percent of Maricopa’s votes could flip the state. In Wisconsin, 2.05 percent of votes in counties using Dominion would need to be shifted; in Nevada, 2.5 percent.

Although his analysis indicated on average about a 3-point “Dominion effect,” it may be higher in some states and lower in others, he said.

“If you believe the Dominion effect is real, it is not hard to believe that this effect would be greater in swing states and could have swung these four states into Biden’s column, putting the electoral college in his favor,” he wrote.

The effect dropped to less than a 2-point blue shift when Georgia was excluded from the analysis.

“I believe this is indicating that Georgia is the strongest case for auditing,” he wrote in an FAQ article that addresses questions about his work.

He showed his findings to about 10 people with statistical expertise, two of whom provided him substantial feedback. Neither could find fault with his analysis, he said, and neither wanted their name associated with it.

The Epoch Times spoke to one of the two, who ran a slightly different statistical model on the same data arriving at nearly the same results. The expert concluded Turner’s model was “reasonable,” given the limitations of the data.

After he went public, more people contacted Turner with further questions, suggesting, for example, more extensive controls.

Ultimately, he ran the analysis with about 100 controls. The effect was reduced to about a 2-point shift toward Biden. He said that at this point, the statistical model started to suffer from “multicollinearity,” meaning many of the control factors were overlapping, which caused the model to provide less reliable results for any single variable, including the “Dominion effect.”

“Once we start to overfit the model, it gets complicated to decipher, and it would take some time to sort out the issues, and even then, it may become a matter of opinion,” he said via email.

He said the results would be safer to report as a range.

“I would say the national average effect appears to be somewhere between 1.0% and 1.6%,” he wrote.

Turner used prior election data from MIT Election Data Science Lab, current election data from Politico, Dominion adoption data from VerifiedVoting.Org, and demographic data from the Department of Agriculture.

The data isn’t robust enough to narrow the analysis down to any particular state, he said.

The findings aren’t enough on their own to “win a court case,” he said. A statistical analysis, no matter how sophisticated, can be wrong. But he argued the four states should allow Republicans to audit the machines.

If this was a suspected insurance fraud case, the results would warrant a probe, he said.

“If this were an insurance company operation, we would have all these investigators investigating the people that we thought were behind the fraud.”

The Epoch Times asked Walter Mebane, statistics professor and election fraud expert at the University of Michigan, to review Turner’s findings. He declined.

“Sorry, but I have no time for this,” he said in an email. “The assumptions that everything is the same over time except the machines are ridiculous.”

While Turner didn’t control for more specific demographic changes over time, such as by age and income, he did control for overall population change.

A researcher associated with The Epoch Times reached out to two statistics professors at two U.S. universities who both found Turner’s methodology sound, but neither agreed to have their name published.

Dominion has been under fire for years over alleged vulnerabilities in its system. A recent forensic audit in one Michigan county concluded the system is “intentionally and purposefully designed with inherent errors to create systemic fraud and influence election results.”

A former military intelligence analyst alleged in a sworn affidavit that the Dominion software was accessed by agents of malicious actors, such as China and Iran, to monitor and manipulate the 2020 election.

The Epoch Times recently produced a documentary delving into Dominion’s complex ownership structure.

The company has denied that its software can be used to switch votes from one candidate to another or that it has foreign government ties.

One county election supervisor in Georgia demonstrated that the Dominion software allows changing votes through its “adjudication” feature.

A Georgia state election official said the adjudication creates a log through which it can be traced who made any changes to a ballot.

Turner called on Biden, local election officials, and Dominion to consider that so many people are already convinced fraud occurred.

“Future President Joe Biden: Do you want a significant portion of the population to believe your presidency was only won through Dominion voting systems?” he wrote.

“Dominion Corporation: Do you want a significant portion of the population to distrust you and demand that your machines are not used?”

“Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin election officials: Do you want a significant portion of your constituents to believe you are part of a conspiracy?”

The only solution now is transparency, he said.

“Do we want another four years where one side of the political divide continually argues that the election was not valid? Will that help our society?”

quote:

Originally posted by lastmanstanding:
...

As long as Trump has not conceded there is a possibility there is something going on that will shock and surprise everyone and the rabbit will be pulled from the hat. Not much is surprising anymore.

True, and hope you're right.

But short of being able to say something 'We audited and found 5M votes stolen from us and given to the other side...the corrected results are Trump 270+...arrests are pending...' getting over/past the scheme currently being played is going to be exceptionally difficult if not impossible. It would be optimistic if all the blatant media censorship wasn't occurring.

They've already been salivating at the idea of physically escorting/removing PDJT from the WH...that would be 100X better to them than their phony BS impeachment...

But right now just seems like as long as overwhelming evidence can be simply ignored we're just rearranging chairs on the Titanic.

$.02 worth,
Boss

Vote Machine Company Threatens Legal Action Against Conservative Media

Demands retractions from Fox News, Newsmax, OAN for spreading “disinformation”

Voting Machine company Smartmatic has delivered legal notices to three conservative news networks, demanding retractions of claims that the company was involved in rigging the election in favour of Joe Biden.

According to reports, Smartmatic has issued legal notices to Fox News, OAN and Newsmax, accusing the networks of a “campaign [that] was designed to defame Smartmatic and undermine a legitimately conducted elections.”

The company is said to have accused Fox News of having “embarked on a disinformation campaign against Smartmatic,” by allowing Trump lawyers Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell to make claims of vote fraud.

“Over the course of the campaign, Fox News published and republished dozens of false and misleading statements regarding Smartmatic,” the notice is said to read.

The legal notice also reportedly claims there is “no evidence or credible source to support” the vote rigging claims, and that anyone “would have easily discovered the falsity of the statements and implications being made about Smartmatic by performing even a modicum of investigation.”

The legal notice is also said to have specifically named Fox News hosts Lou Dobbs, Jesse Watters, and Maria Bartiromo, and indicates that Smartmatic could pursue legal action against them personally:

“Smartmatic demands a full and complete retraction of all false and defamatory statements reports published by Fox News. This retraction must be done with the same intensity and level of coverage that you used to defame the company in the first place,” the legal notice also reportedly states.

“This campaign is an attack on election systems and election workers in an effort to depress confidence in future elections and potentially counter the will of the voters, not just here, but in democracies around the world,” Smartmatic chief executive Antonio Mugica said in a statement.

At time of writing, only Newsmax has responded to the allegations, issuing a statement that notes “As any major media outlet, we provide a forum for public concerns and discussion. In the past we have welcomed Smartmatic and its representatives to counter such claims they believe to be inaccurate and will continue to do so.”

https://summit.news/2020/12/15...-conservative-media/

Maria Bartiromo should just say "Come on my show!"

Dominion : We will sue

Conservative attorneys : Discovery will be fun

Dominion : Bleep. Never mind.

Ironic how the democrats used hearsay of biased witnesses in their attempt to impeach the President and in the Justice Kavanaugh hearings, but deny all the evidence of compromised election machines, fraudulent ballots, late balloting, mis-dated ballots, dead voters, underage voters, unbiased eye witnesses...

^^^^^

And they so often screamed about "putting an asterisk by his Presidency."

Seems JB ought to be the one with the asterisk.

Joe Biden in 2007

video at link

https://twitter.com/i/status/1338923147215638528

Joe Biden 2007:


"How are you gonna keep it from us being able to be in a position where you can manipulate the machines, manipulate the records?... I think we should pass a federal law mandating that the same machines with paper trails be mandatory for every federal election"

WTF
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

quote:

Originally posted by skyline009:
WTF
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ushome/index.html

That fucking snake.

Bless his heart...

He doesn't know it yet I guess.

The party is dead and he will probably loose his speakership in January (who really believes the senate can stop Biden if he is installed with Romney, Collins and Murkowski?).

He is going to have to spend at least 4 years in the minority at a minimum, unless some health problems arise or he decides to retire.

Even if he sticks around, the party will be decimated in 2 years.

Not too surprised but prefer to await better sources than the anti-Trump Daily Mail.

Mcconell is such a scumbag, like the majority of these RINOS, when Trump gets back for his next term he will make many very sorry.

quote:

Originally posted by bozman:
Bless his heart...

He doesn't know it yet I guess.

The party is dead ...

Yup. Dead party walkin'.

quote:

Originally posted by bozman:
Even if he sticks around, the party will be decimated in 2 years.

I'm thinkin' the mid-terms are gonna be a rout. There's a lot of dissatisfaction with the GOP right now.

A Michigan Rep. claimed he was leaving the GOP over many members' support for claims of election fraud. Right. You're deserting a sinking ship, asshole.

What Mitch does not appear to realize is that, without the MAGA voter, the Republican Party is dead. MAGA is not a flash in the pan like the Tea Party. It is a movement that, if it can successfully couple America First with a solid moral foundation will sweep across this nation like a righteous storm. I pity the fool that stands in its way.

I don’t believe that Trump is finished - quit does not appear to be a word with which he is familiar. However, should he not take the oath he will most certainly not wander off into the night. The questions that each of us must answer: will we rally to the cause? Will we stand for freedom? Does the ideal of individual liberty strike a chord at the depths of our being?

Silent

https://www.worldtribune.com/r...fter-trump-election/


by WorldTribune Staff, April 24, 2018



Report: McConnell’s sister-in-law named to Bank of China board 10 days after Trump election
“In a panic” following the election victory of Donald Trump, China appointed the sister-in-law of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to the Bank of China’s board of directors, the author of a new book on the monetizing of political influence said.
Angela Chao was named to the Bank of China’s board of directors just 10 days after Trump’s victory, said Peter Schweizer, author of “Secret Empires: How the American Political Class Hides Corruption and Enriches Family and Friends”.

Chao and McConnell’s father-in-law, James Chao, also sit on the board of the China State Shipbuilding Corporation which is the largest defense contractor in China.

“So when [Donald Trump] gets elected in 2016, China is in a panic. So one of the things that happens is, they appoint, really, the first American, or only the second foreigner to the Bank of China,” Schweizer said on the April 23 edition of SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Tonight.

“Now, the Bank of China is government-run, government-controlled, is sort of the backbone of the Chinese government’s economic diplomacy around the world. Ten days after Donald Trump is elected, they put Elaine Chao’s sister – Mitch McConnell’s sister-in-law – on the board of directors of the fourth largest bank in the world, which is run by the Chinese communist government. It’s a shocking development, and, again, unprecedented in American history that you would have senior political leaders have immediate family members that are sitting on the board of foreign government-owned businesses.”

Schweizer noted: “So Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, his wife Elaine Chao, who’s the transportation secretary in the Trump administration, her family has deep economic and financial ties to the Chinese government itself. They are in the shipping business, and they own something called the Foremost Group, and really, in 1993, Mitch McConnell, as a senator, travels to China with his father-in-law, James Chao, as guests of the China State Shipbuilding Corporation.”



McConnell, Kentucky Republican, “has benefited because a few years ago, James Chao gave Mitch McConnell a gift between five and twenty-five million dollars that more than quadrupled his net worth overnight,” Schweizer said. “So this is not just about Elaine Chao’s family getting wealthy. That wealth has now trickled into Mitch McConnell’s pocket, as well, and it’s a huge problem because if you chart the positions that Sen. McConnell has taken on China over the last 20 years, guess what? Shock of all shocks, he has become increasingly soft as it relates to China, and I think it is directly related to the fact that he knows his family’s financial future is tied to the good graces and good faith of the Chinese communist government.

It’s pretty obvious at this point that all the big R and little r rinos want to go back to the status quo and the parties they’ve been missing out on the last four years. Totally disgusting, disappointing, and demoralizing. Fuck any of them ever again for a donation or a vote.

McConnell is a career politician, he's corrupt just like all the rest of them. It's likely he'll lose his position as majority speaker but even that isn't as important as him getting comfortably back into the uni party. I want every politician to have a noose around their neck and the longer they've been on the job the slower they strangle.

quote:

Originally posted by HuskySig:
It’s pretty obvious at this point that all the big R and little r rinos want to go back to the status quo and the parties they’ve been missing out on the last four years. Totally disgusting, disappointing, and demoralizing. Fuck any of them ever again for a donation or a vote.

Praying that President Trump can stay with us. As for the US Government, all criminal and garbage. We no longer have them. History.

"They Tell Us We Are Weak. But When Shall We Be Stronger?"

"There is no longer any room for hope. If we wish to be free -- if we mean to preserve inviolate those inestimable privileges for which we have been so long contending -- if we mean not basely to abandon the noble struggle in which we have been so long engaged, and which we have pledged ourselves never to abandon until the glorious object of our contest shall be obtained--we must fight! I repeat it, sir, we must fight! An appeal to arms and to the God of hosts is all that is left us!

“They tell us, sir, that we are weak; unable to cope with so formidable an adversary. But when shall we be stronger? Will it be the next week, or the next year? Will it be when we are totally disarmed, and when a guard shall be stationed in every house? Shall we gather strength by irresolution and inaction? Shall we acquire the means of effectual resistance by lying supinely on our backs and hugging the delusive phantom of hope, until our enemies shall have bound us hand and foot?

“Sir, we are not weak if we make a proper use of those means which the God of nature hath placed in our power. The millions of people, armed in the holy cause of liberty, and in such a country as that which we possess, are invincible by any force which our enemy can send against us. Besides, sir, we shall not fight our battles alone. There is a just God who presides over the destinies of nations, and who will raise up friends to fight our battles for us.

“The battle, sir, is not to the strong alone; it is to the vigilant, the active, the brave. Besides, sir, we have no election. If we were base enough to desire it, it is now too late to retire from the contest. There is no retreat but in submission and slavery! Our chains are forged! Their clanking may be heard on the plains of Boston! The war is inevitable--and let it come! I repeat it, sir, let it come." --Patrick Henry