quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
How does something simply burn out with a two week incubation and reinfection possible? This thing was engineered and can even be absorbed through the eyes from what was said on here yesterday. I'm not worried, but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

You state that it was engineered as a fact. Is that your intent, and if so what proof do you have?

It is not that I think that isn’t possible. I trust the CCP as far as I can throw all of them when every single one of them is loaded on enough 747-800s to carry them all, which is not at all. However, while I believe that what you stated as fact may be true, I have seen no proof of that and would curious to see it.
Thanks.

Early on after this got widespread attention some Indian scientists claimed that the virus' genome had a sequence from HIV inserted, but the study was withdrawn. Of course in the nature of sensationalism, the initial misinformation sticks around long after correction. Like in any major epidemic, there's lots of rumors about bioweapons going around (HIV was claimed by some to be a CIA plot against Africans or something), on no more evidence that China's only Level 4 security biolab happens to be in Wuhan. Mind, it wouldn't be the first time a virus escaped from a Chinese lab, but there's no evidence this was designed.

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
Hoehl and colleagues report on 126 persons evacuated to Germany after a stay in Hubei Province. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 virus was found in 2 evacuees despite negative screening before departure. Ten of the 126 passengers were segregated either because of histories of contact with an infected patient, symptoms consistent with infection, or contact with family members thought to have infection. On arrival at a German hospital, all 10 tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. One of the remaining 116 passengers had fever to 38.4ºC and cough but tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, when 114 of the negative-screened patients underwent viral testing, 2 (1.8%) tested positive by RT-PCR and other genetic tests. Both were isolated but remained well 7 days later.

It might be added that by now 14 of the total 16 confirmed German cases have been discharged (a tourist who recently returned from Venetia with a fever is currently being checked out as a possible, but two others who were on a train stopped at the Italian-Austrian border were tested negative). Only one case was reported as severe, the others developed at best some cold symptoms and diarrhoea. The sample is of course very small, but given that it was a generally healthy group of younger to middle age, it's broadly in line with what could be expected based upon Chinese data.

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
You guys expecting a market recovery are in for a wild ride. It’s headed to 20,000 , maybe even 18,000.

When in fear or in doubt, run in circles scream and shout.

quote:

Originally posted by rburg:

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

It'll probably "go away" come spring and warm weather. Just like the seasonal flu. But similarly, it'll be back. I have no idea why except the virus doesn't survive well on surfaces and in warm weather and high humidity.

I have no idea why humidity plays a role. Maybe desert area's should be concerned. Particularly at altitude where its cooler.

The virus is taking off in Singapore which is 80-90 degrees right now.

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
This thing ... can even be absorbed through the eyes ....

Assuming that's true, it's not unique to this disease.

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
How does something simply burn out with a two week incubation and reinfection possible? This thing was engineered and can even be absorbed through the eyes from what was said on here yesterday. I'm not worried, but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

You state that it was engineered as a fact. Is that your intent, and if so what proof do you have?

It is not that I think that isn’t possible. I trust the CCP as far as I can throw all of them when every single one of them is loaded on enough 747-800s to carry them all, which is not at all. However, while I believe that what you stated as fact may be true, I have seen no proof of that and would curious to see it.
Thanks.

From the gene sequencing, it was in fact engineered. By Mother Nature. Over a long period of time.

February 24, 2020

Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in ChinaSummary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

https://jamanetwork.com/journa.../fullarticle/2762130

Box.
Key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)

Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)

Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)

Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)

Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

Age distribution (N = 44 672)

≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)

30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)

20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)

10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)

<10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

Case-fatality rate

2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)

8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

Health care personnel infected

3.8% (1716 of 44 672)

63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)

14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)

5 deaths

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
February 24, 2020

Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in ChinaSummary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

https://jamanetwork.com/journa.../fullarticle/2762130

Box.
Key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)

Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)

Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)

Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)

Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

Age distribution (N = 44 672)

≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)

30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)

20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)

10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)

<10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

Case-fatality rate

2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)

8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

Health care personnel infected

3.8% (1716 of 44 672)

63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)

14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)

5 deaths

This is the most important paragraph in that article with respect to containment efforts:

As of the end of February 18, 2020, China has reported 72 528 confirmed cases (98.9% of the global total) and 1870 deaths (99.8% of the global total). This translates to a current crude CFR of 2.6%. However, the total number of COVID-19 cases is likely higher due to inherent difficulties in identifying and counting mild and asymptomatic cases. Furthermore, the still-insufficient testing capacity for COVID-19 in China means that many suspected and clinically diagnosed cases are not yet counted in the denominator. This uncertainty in the CFR may be reflected by the important difference between the CFR in Hubei (2.9%) compared with outside Hubei (0.4%). Nevertheless, all CFRs still need to be interpreted with caution and more research is required.

“30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)”

Shit. I’m in that age group.

Whether one believes this thing is no more threatening than the average seasonal influenza or going to result in a global pandemic the likes of which haven't been seen since the black plague, basic, precautionary prep would be the prudent thing to do, IMO. "Better to have it and not need it than..."

Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
How does something simply burn out with a two week incubation and reinfection possible? This thing was engineered and can even be absorbed through the eyes from what was said on here yesterday. I'm not worried, but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

You state that it was engineered as a fact. Is that your intent, and if so what proof do you have?

It is not that I think that isn’t possible. I trust the CCP as far as I can throw all of them when every single one of them is loaded on enough 747-800s to carry them all, which is not at all. However, while I believe that what you stated as fact may be true, I have seen no proof of that and would curious to see it.
Thanks.

From the gene sequencing, it was in fact engineered. By Mother Nature. Over a long period of time.

Thanks Doc. Thanks also to BansheeOne. I did see the claim, though didn’t remember op it was from Indian docs, but also remember it being contradicted multiple times.

quote:

Originally posted by arfmel:
“30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)”

Shit. I’m in that age group.

We all are, here on this forum. But while virus do travel over the wires, just not wireless...

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
How does something simply burn out with a two week incubation and reinfection possible? This thing was engineered and can even be absorbed through the eyes from what was said on here yesterday. I'm not worried, but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

You state that it was engineered as a fact. Is that your intent, and if so what proof do you have?

It is not that I think that isn’t possible. I trust the CCP as far as I can throw all of them when every single one of them is loaded on enough 747-800s to carry them all, which is not at all. However, while I believe that what you stated as fact may be true, I have seen no proof of that and would curious to see it.
Thanks.

From the gene sequencing, it was in fact engineered. By Mother Nature. Over a long period of time.

Thanks Doc. Thanks also to BansheeOne. I did see the claim, though didn’t remember op it was from Indian docs, but also remember it being contradicted multiple times.

Yep. Messing with the mutability/infectivity/genetic makeup/molecular construction of a biotoxic organism leaves....fingerprints. Absolutely, the Chinese do it. And the Russians. And some others that have the resources (it's not without risk - Amateur Night is a very bad option in this case). And us - basically to 1) see if it can be done, and 2) so we can recognize it. Just not in this particular - soon likely to be pandemic - epidemic.

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
... the still-insufficient testing capacity for COVID-19 in China means that many suspected and clinically diagnosed cases are not yet counted in the denominator.

Might that not also mean they're not being counted in the numerator? Remember when, in the space of 24 hours, the number of cases reported jumped, what?, an order of magnitude and deaths attributed to the disease likewise?

This is a big part of the problem. Between sheer incompetence and CCP politics, the true nature of this threat can't be determined with any confidence. The only way we're going to find out is if it truly gets loose in a civilized country.

I'd argue the above is also part of the reason the markets are beginning to react the way they are. Wall St. may run on fear and greed, but one thing it definitely does not like is ambiguity. We're seeing a lot of ambiguity.

What we do know about SARS-CoV-2, compared to the typical seasonal influenza, are these things:

• It has an exceptionally long incubation period compared to most common influenza: 2-3 weeks as compared to 2-3 days
  
• It has been found to be highly contagious during the incubation period, whereas common influenza isn't so much
  
• It is believed (?) individuals "cured" of the disease have been found to remain contagious (unknown how long)
  
• It is believed (?) individuals "cured" of the disease can be re-infected
  
• It's killing otherwise healthy individuals in the primes of their lives, whereas most influenza mainly strikes down the very young, the very old, and those with otherwise compromised health
  
• It has been tested to survive on some surfaces for up to nine (9) days--significantly longer than the average flu virus, which average more in the range of hours.
  

Given the above I think it's fairly safe to assume this thing isn't going to be stopped at any borders. So the big question is: Just how mortally dangerous is it? As above: Dunno.

Personally, it's not the mortality I'm concerned about so much as how much disruption it's likely to cause. That is the reason my wife and I are taking some mild "prepper-like" precautions. Just as we did with the "new millennium" thing.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDCs National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/2...-in-us-pandemic.html

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

quote:

Originally posted by Doc H.:
... the still-insufficient testing capacity for COVID-19 in China means that many suspected and clinically diagnosed cases are not yet counted in the denominator.

Might that not also mean they're not being counted in the numerator? Remember when, in the space of 24 hours, the number of cases reported jumped, what?, an order of magnitude and deaths attributed to the disease likewise?

This is a big part of the problem. Between sheer incompetence and CCP politics, the true nature of this threat can't be determined with any confidence. The only way we're going to find out is if it truly gets loose in a civilized country.

I'd argue the above is also part of the reason the markets are beginning to react the way they are. Wall St. may run on fear and greed, but one thing it definitely does not like is ambiguity. We're seeing a lot of ambiguity.

What we do know about SARS-CoV-2, compared to the typical seasonal influenza, are these things:

• It has an exceptionally long incubation period compared to most common influenza: 2-3 weeks as compared to 2-3 days
  
• It has been found to be highly contagious during the incubation period, whereas common influenza isn't so much
  
• It is believed (?) individuals "cured" of the disease have been found to remain contagious (unknown how long)
  
• It is believed (?) individuals "cured" of the disease can be re-infected
  
• It's killing otherwise healthy individuals in the primes of their lives, whereas most influenza mainly strikes down the very young, the very old, and those with otherwise compromised health
  
• It has been tested to survive on some surfaces for up to nine (9) days--significantly longer than the average flu virus, which average more in the range of hours.
  

Given the above I think it's fairly safe to assume this thing isn't going to be stopped at any borders. So the big question is: Just how mortally dangerous is it? As above: Dunno.

Personally, it's not the mortality I'm concerned about so much as how much disruption it's likely to cause. That is the reason my wife and I are taking some mild "prepper-like" precautions. Just as we did with the "new millennium" thing.

All good points, and very possibly - even likely - deaths are under reported. But more through incompetence than intent, which is indeed a concern as JAMA describes. First, there's no benefit - at this point - to under report deaths. Not even in China. Second, there's an order of difference in not reporting a case of the sniffles (which will get you and your family locked up with the unwashed masses), and, well, a dead body in the bedroom. So likely exposures are vastly more under reported than deaths. As a guess.

But you're correct - at this point, no one actually can verify the true data, except to say that the CFR in parts of the world other than China, seems to be in the range of 0.1 to 0.5, very age and locality specific. I'll use the example of the US again, with over 50 cases confirmed and a CFR of zero. This just demonstrates how the data can be skewed - during the SARS outbreak, 8 cases were confirmed in the US, none of whom died, for a CFR of zero as well, which it certainly wasn't globally (at around 10%).

So time will tell, but the CFR globally and realistically for this virus in almost every place but China may well be far below initial global estimates based on incorporating the Chinese data - which represents over 95% of the reported cases. But even with a CFR at the rate of influenza, the global economy will take a substantial hit, not forgetting that influenza is still with us, still in play for months, and will this year likely produce close to a million deaths and still strain healthcare resources while this new epidemic races alongside it. The only reason there aren't 10, or 20 million deaths - as a guess - from influenza, is because there's a vaccine. There isn't for this virus. There's no good news in anything about this new virus, even in the rosiest scenario, but it's not shaping up to be the new plague described by some news media. And there's plenty to be alarmed about even if it's just "the new flu."

So what's to stop Iran, China, NK,.... from loading a half dozen infected people on a plane and send them into the US and put them on subways, busses, malls... purposely?

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:

It's killing otherwise healthy individuals in the primes of their lives, whereas most influenza mainly strikes down the very young, the very old, and those with otherwise compromised health

As a probably coincidental—but who knows for sure—similarity between COVID-19 and the so-called “Spanish flu” of a century ago, that disease also killed young, healthy adults at an unexpected rate. Some authorities believe that that was due to the fact that older people had been exposed to an earlier flu epidemic that may have given them some resistance to the one in 1919-20.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
The only way we're going to find out is if it truly gets loose in a civilized country.

Which is why I tell people to watch Italy. In the last 24 hours, case count there has increased by about 100 to currently 322, and deaths by three to ten eleven, both close to a 50 percent rise. As noted, the rather high mortality seems in part because of a spread within hospitals from initially unrecognized cases; for comparison, South Korea has the same number of deaths with thrice the total case count.

But the general thinking over here is that there are probably already numerous unrecognized infections across Europe, and Italy is just prominent because they started testing lots of people. Germany has now begun testing samples from people seeing their doctors over respiratory sickness via the national Influenza tracking program (i. e., from about 100 general practitioners across the country), and I expect some cases to show up with no clearly established chain of infection.

Southern Italy has locked down due to the spread of the virus.

Shelves are getting bare in Lombardy region of Italy.



Its getting everywhere.