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When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2) Login/Join 
Nullus Anxietas
Picture of ensigmatic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, just because certain people act predictably doesn't mean I can't call them foolish.

It's not foolish to react to a disruption in the global supply chain. And, since the Chinese don't appear to have a very good handle on what's going on, it's not foolish to expect further such disruptions.



"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe
"If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher
 
Posts: 26031 | Location: S.E. Michigan | Registered: January 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
It's not foolish to react to a disruption in the global supply chain. And, since the Chinese don't appear to have a very good handle on what's going on, it's not foolish to expect further such disruptions.

Yeah agreed. As the Chinese heading back to work en masse, expect infections to spike, further disrupting the supply chain of pretty every business in the US.
 
Posts: 1821 | Location: Austin TX | Registered: October 30, 2003Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
posted Hide Post
The stock market runs on two things, greed and fear. There has been a whole lot of optimism baked into the market for some time, and numerous pundits have been warning that we are long overdue for a correction. This is a situation ripe for a panic in the markets. Those who are rushing to sell today may be called dummies by those with stronger hands who held tight and waited for the rebound. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged decline, they might look pretty smart in a couple of months. As I used to semi-jokingly say to folks I worked in tech with in the early 2000s, today is an even better day to buy than yesterday, but I can’t promise tomorrow won’t be better still.

As usual, it helps a lot to be diversified, owning companies that you understand whose business and financials make sense, to have some debt instruments, and enough cash that you don’t have to to sell anything for at least six months, or better yet, a year.
 
Posts: 7216 | Location: Lost, but making time. | Registered: February 23, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Ammoholic
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by saigonsmuggler:
quote:
Originally posted by ensigmatic:
It's not foolish to react to a disruption in the global supply chain. And, since the Chinese don't appear to have a very good handle on what's going on, it's not foolish to expect further such disruptions.

Yeah agreed. As the Chinese heading back to work en masse, expect infections to spike, further disrupting the supply chain of pretty every business in the US.

Beyond which, if the virus lives on fomites for nine days or so, how much products produced in China do you want in your house or around you or your family?

There will be some rational caution and plenty of irrational fear. However, given how forthright and honest the CCP has been about this, it may be difficult to tell where the line between the two is.
 
Posts: 7216 | Location: Lost, but making time. | Registered: February 23, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
goodheart
Picture of sjtill
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Fortune: Covid-19 may be spread by fecal-oral route

Studies are suggesting the virus may be spread by fecal-oral contamination; that might explain why it has spread so quickly in China, and might not spread so quickly in countries with better hygiene. Also may explain transmission within cruise ships.


_________________________
“Remember, remember the fifth of November!"
 
Posts: 18622 | Location: One hop from Paradise | Registered: July 27, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Victim of Life's
Circumstances
Picture of doublesharp
posted Hide Post
Watch for India to pick up China's manufacturing slack. The days of $200 big screen tvs may be over soon but this virus is going to drive many USA mfg out of China and back home or to relocate in favorable countries. Short term pain for long term gain.


________________________
God spelled backwards is dog
 
Posts: 4870 | Location: Sunnyside of Louisville | Registered: July 04, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Something wild
is loose
Picture of Doc H.
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Non-medical opinion, I think the market tanked because of the upswing of cases in Italy, as if the - I'll use the term "ninnies" too - ninnies-in-charge thought the disease would be exclusively or largely contained in Asia. It won't. As will become apparent in days to come. That doesn't change the prediction of a global sweep of infections, associated deaths in the range of influenza, followed by the disappearance of this particular germ - for the time being - and then: back to normal. As will the market be. Our little Band of Merry Men locally have much the same diversity as the forum and the press (moreso the press), from "OMG we're all gonna die!! Augh, augh!" to "Ima put this stuff on my ham sammich and show you guys!" The reality lies somewhere in between, and I'm an in between realist. My educated gut is, this isn't The Big One. The Big One will come, some day. This isn't it. When it does, if I'm still around, and you see my CUT in a response, you need to go and hide. Far away and very deep. Not now.



"And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day"
 
Posts: 2746 | Location: The Shire | Registered: October 22, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lawyers, Guns
and Money
Picture of chellim1
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quote:
The reality lies somewhere in between, and I'm an in between realist. My educated gut is, this isn't The Big One.

Thanks, Doc. I agree.
But with disruptions in the supply chain (the world does depend on China more than we would like to admit) it may take a while to get back to 'normal'.



"Some things are apparent. Where government moves in, community retreats, civil society disintegrates and our ability to control our own destiny atrophies. The result is: families under siege; war in the streets; unapologetic expropriation of property; the precipitous decline of the rule of law; the rapid rise of corruption; the loss of civility and the triumph of deceit. The result is a debased, debauched culture which finds moral depravity entertaining and virtue contemptible."
-- Justice Janice Rogers Brown

"The United States government is the largest criminal enterprise on earth."
-rduckwor
 
Posts: 24868 | Location: St. Louis, MO | Registered: April 03, 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
As Extraordinary
as Everyone Else
Picture of smlsig
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, I'm expecting a rebound tomorrow. Maybe dip down again during the week because of the aforementioned ninnies, but then ultimately recover mostly by Friday.

How's that for wishful thinking!


Allen-
I think tomorrow is the deadline for covering puts and calls which will probably exert some downward pressure on the market.
It could be a bumpy ride tomorrow but hopefully Wednesday (barring any new negative news) will hopefully see a partial recovery...


------------------
Eddie

Our Founding Fathers were men who understood that the right thing is not necessarily the written thing. -kkina
 
Posts: 6532 | Location: In transit | Registered: February 19, 2013Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Telecom Ronin
Picture of dewhorse
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by chellim1:
quote:
The reality lies somewhere in between, and I'm an in between realist. My educated gut is, this isn't The Big One.

Thanks, Doc. I agree.
But with disruptions in the supply chain (the world does depend on China more than we would like to admit) it may take a while to get back to 'normal'.


Most pundits were saying don't expect anything to improve for Q1 now I think they are looking at Q2.

Hopefully as someone mentioned this will drive some to move to India or other Asian nations.

We are traveling to South Eastern EU next week, direct to Heathrow so not worried about the inbound leg but stocking on hand sanitizer (and packing masks / goggles) for return leg.

Not overly concerned as we are going to what would be considered the middle of no where...86KM south of Krakow but we will be in Prague for a bit...still not really concerned.... at this point.

If the EU bursts into flames while we are there....(seriously don't expect this but hey I believe in a good E&E plan....good mental masturbation Wink ) Uzgorod is a a hop skip and jump away and then to my in laws in Kharkiv
 
Posts: 8301 | Location: Back in NE TX ....to stay | Registered: February 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
Picture of Killer
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Reuters: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS SENDING TO CONGRESS A BUDGET REQUEST FOR $2.5 BILLION TO FIGHT CORONAVIRUS, INCLUDING MORE THAN $1 BILLION FOR VACCINES -WHITE HOUSE

https://twitter.com/Rover829/s.../1232105903781888001
 
Posts: 346 | Location: Central Illinois | Registered: December 10, 2015Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Left-Handed,
NOT Left-Winged!
posted Hide Post
While the market is overreacting to Italy and Iran today, stock prices will drop for companies that are expected to see lower margins (or losses) due to supply chain disruptions.

And the disruptions are coming soon. It's only a month since the shutdown of Wuhan, and ships are still arriving with Chinese goods (esp. materials and components) for a little longer. Ocean freight is about 5-6 weeks from China to US, and the warnings about missed shipments stared about three weeks ago. Along with the warnings came assertions of force majeure, or "not responsible due to an act of God". I was in Brazil last week and our plant there is already seeing some effects.

Given the popularity of tourism in Italy I can see how the virus may have gotten there.

But what about Iran? It just pops up there and no one knows why or how? Faster spread and deadlier due to poor infrastructure, lack of medical care, and gov't incompetence/lies.

Heard the fill-in on Mark Levin's radio show make an interesting point. The death rate is the number of dead divided by the total infected that are dead or fully recovered. It's not total dead divided by total infected because the data is not mature yet. And of course, we really don't know how many infected (or dead) there are except in countries where we can trust the data...
 
Posts: 5034 | Location: Indiana | Registered: December 28, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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https://www.jwatch.org/na50961...sars-cov-2-infection

February 21, 2020
Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Stephen G. Baum, MD reviewing Zou L et al. N Engl J Med 2020 Feb 19 Hoehl S et al. N Engl J Med 2020 Feb 18

Two studies, one on the viral load of the novel 2019 coronavirus in upper respiratory secretions and another, the carriage of this virus by returning travelers from China, shed light on contagion of this virus.

The emergence of a novel SARS-like coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Hubei Province, China, and its rapid spread through many countries of Asia and elsewhere, have been labeled as an international emergency. The massive attempts at quarantine have had some salutary effects on the spread of this serious respiratory disease the virus causes, but much about the factors controlling contagion has yet to be discovered. Now, two brief reports that bear on communicability of this virus have been published.

Zou and colleagues measured SARS-CoV-2 viral load in 18 persons in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China (9 men and 9 women; median age, 59 years), including 4 secondary cases, one of whom was asymptomatic but was a close contact of a patient. Infection was confirmed in all patients by positive reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR). Of 14 primary cases, all had fever (>37.3ºC) and 13 had radiographic evidence of pneumonia. Multiple nasal and throat swabs were obtained from each subject, and viral load was calculated as the inverse of cycles necessary to detect virus. Nasal viral loads were higher than those in the throat, corelated with onset of symptoms, were highest in the first 10 to 12 days of illness, and were about as high in the asymptomatic patient as in the symptomatic patients.

Hoehl and colleagues report on 126 persons evacuated to Germany after a stay in Hubei Province. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 virus was found in 2 evacuees despite negative screening before departure. Ten of the 126 passengers were segregated either because of histories of contact with an infected patient, symptoms consistent with infection, or contact with family members thought to have infection. On arrival at a German hospital, all 10 tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. One of the remaining 116 passengers had fever to 38.4ºC and cough but tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, when 114 of the negative-screened patients underwent viral testing, 2 (1.8%) tested positive by RT-PCR and other genetic tests. Both were isolated but remained well 7 days later.

Comment

We still have a lot to learn about this virus and the disease it causes, COVID-19. These two studies provide some valuable (and cautionary) information. Current clinical screening does not pick up 100% of infected people. Virus, probably in infectious amounts, is present in minimally symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Although 14 days may encompass the vast majority of incubation periods, virus is present at least a few days after that in some people. All of these findings are typical of those in many other viral infections. Viral load correlates with symptom onset in those with symptoms and peaks earlier than the previously identified SARS coronavirus. These findings, if replicated, indicate that we have not mastered all of the precautionary measures that may be necessary to contain this epidemic and prevent a pandemic.


_________________________
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it."
Mark Twain
 
Posts: 13476 | Registered: January 17, 2011Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Member
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The problem today is media hype, viewer stats and money. The constant cry of "Wulf', be it da virus, da Climate change, da Ruskies meddling in our elections, onward ad nauseam, will do us in one of these times when it's real and no one cares to pay attention any longer.

Until I see help wanted ads for 'Bring out your Dead' collection squads, paying at least minimum wage, I'm just gonna sit back and wait until the adverts for such jobs.

If it gets bad enough, then President Trump, like President Ryan, will just impose a travel ban until da virus burns itself out.


-.-. --.- -.-. --.- -.-. --.- -.-. --.-
It only stands to reason that where there's sacrifice, there's someone collecting the sacrificial offerings. Where there's service, there is someone being served. The man who speaks to you of sacrifice is speaking of slaves and masters, and intends to be the master.

Ayn Rand


"He gains votes ever and anew by taking money from everybody and giving it to a few, while explaining that every penny was extracted from the few to be giving to the many."

Ogden Nash from his poem - The Politician
 
Posts: 1690 | Registered: July 14, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
That rug really tied
the room together.
Picture of bubbatime
posted Hide Post
You guys expecting a market recovery are in for a wild ride. It’s headed to 20,000 , maybe even 18,000.


______________________________________________________
Often times a very small man can cast a very large shadow
 
Posts: 6714 | Location: Floriduh | Registered: October 16, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Lighten up and laugh
Picture of Ackks
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by icom706:
The problem today is media hype, viewer stats and money. The constant cry of "Wulf', be it da virus, da Climate change, da Ruskies meddling in our elections, onward ad nauseam, will do us in one of these times when it's real and no one cares to pay attention any longer.

Until I see help wanted ads for 'Bring out your Dead' collection squads, paying at least minimum wage, I'm just gonna sit back and wait until the adverts for such jobs.

If it gets bad enough, then President Trump, like President Ryan, will just impose a travel ban until da virus burns itself out.


How does something simply burn out with a two week incubation and reinfection possible? This thing was engineered and can even be absorbed through the eyes from what was said on here yesterday. I'm not worried, but I can't see it going away anytime soon.
 
Posts: 7934 | Registered: September 29, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Non-Miscreant
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Ackks:
but I can't see it going away anytime soon.


It'll probably "go away" come spring and warm weather. Just like the seasonal flu. But similarly, it'll be back. I have no idea why except the virus doesn't survive well on surfaces and in warm weather and high humidity.

I have no idea why humidity plays a role. Maybe desert area's should be concerned. Particularly at altitude where its cooler.


Unhappy ammo seeker
 
Posts: 18394 | Location: Kentucky, USA | Registered: February 25, 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Victim of Life's
Circumstances
Picture of doublesharp
posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by bubbatime:
You guys expecting a market recovery are in for a wild ride. It’s headed to 20,000 , maybe even 18,000.


This may be the real deal. I've been active in the mkt since the 60s and pride myself on nerve. Buying dividend aristocrats at 52 week low has worked well since foresver. I didn't sell a thing in 08/09 and nibbled buying. Modified dogs of dow is me. This time may be different but I'm spread out and can handle some downside. Old and debt free. I start taking it real serious when stocks that don't miss/cut dividends start. Interesting times.


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God spelled backwards is dog
 
Posts: 4870 | Location: Sunnyside of Louisville | Registered: July 04, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
In search of baseball, strippers, and guns
posted Hide Post
This only slightly meant tongue in cheek but


I hope you get your blood pressure checked regularly. Just reading your posts raises mine, I can’t imagine what it does to yours



quote:
Originally posted by bubbatime:
You guys expecting a market recovery are in for a wild ride. It’s headed to 20,000 , maybe even 18,000.


——————————————————

If the meek will inherit the earth, what will happen to us tigers?
 
Posts: 7796 | Location: Warrenton, VA | Registered: July 09, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
Oh stewardess,
I speak jive.
Picture of 46and2
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Big Grin
 
Posts: 25613 | Registered: March 12, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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