quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:
Why are we surprised by the market’s reaction to this?

Who here said he was surprised?

Ah, well you got me there.
I don’t know that anyone said it, but when someone calls a group of anonymous people who can be expected to act in a certain way based on countless past experiences “ninnies,” that’s the general impression it gives. It would be sort of like my complaining to my wife this morning, “Dam’! It snowed last night.” I would expect her to say or at least think, “Yeah; that’s what it does here in the high mountains in February.”

Well, just because certain people act predictably doesn't mean I can't call them foolish.

What I can't predict now is how long this panic will last. My wishful thinking is not long. So, in a few weeks time, if the market is still free falling, I'll admit that I'm surprised at that. And I'll still call them all ninnies.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, just because certain people act predictably doesn't mean I can't call them foolish.

It's not foolish to react to a disruption in the global supply chain. And, since the Chinese don't appear to have a very good handle on what's going on, it's not foolish to expect further such disruptions.

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
It's not foolish to react to a disruption in the global supply chain. And, since the Chinese don't appear to have a very good handle on what's going on, it's not foolish to expect further such disruptions.

Yeah agreed. As the Chinese heading back to work en masse, expect infections to spike, further disrupting the supply chain of pretty every business in the US.

The stock market runs on two things, greed and fear. There has been a whole lot of optimism baked into the market for some time, and numerous pundits have been warning that we are long overdue for a correction. This is a situation ripe for a panic in the markets. Those who are rushing to sell today may be called dummies by those with stronger hands who held tight and waited for the rebound. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged decline, they might look pretty smart in a couple of months. As I used to semi-jokingly say to folks I worked in tech with in the early 2000s, today is an even better day to buy than yesterday, but I can’t promise tomorrow won’t be better still.

As usual, it helps a lot to be diversified, owning companies that you understand whose business and financials make sense, to have some debt instruments, and enough cash that you don’t have to to sell anything for at least six months, or better yet, a year.

quote:

Originally posted by saigonsmuggler:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
It's not foolish to react to a disruption in the global supply chain. And, since the Chinese don't appear to have a very good handle on what's going on, it's not foolish to expect further such disruptions.

Yeah agreed. As the Chinese heading back to work en masse, expect infections to spike, further disrupting the supply chain of pretty every business in the US.

Beyond which, if the virus lives on fomites for nine days or so, how much products produced in China do you want in your house or around you or your family?

There will be some rational caution and plenty of irrational fear. However, given how forthright and honest the CCP has been about this, it may be difficult to tell where the line between the two is.

Fortune: Covid-19 may be spread by fecal-oral route

Studies are suggesting the virus may be spread by fecal-oral contamination; that might explain why it has spread so quickly in China, and might not spread so quickly in countries with better hygiene. Also may explain transmission within cruise ships.

Watch for India to pick up China's manufacturing slack. The days of $200 big screen tvs may be over soon but this virus is going to drive many USA mfg out of China and back home or to relocate in favorable countries. Short term pain for long term gain.

Non-medical opinion, I think the market tanked because of the upswing of cases in Italy, as if the - I'll use the term "ninnies" too - ninnies-in-charge thought the disease would be exclusively or largely contained in Asia. It won't. As will become apparent in days to come. That doesn't change the prediction of a global sweep of infections, associated deaths in the range of influenza, followed by the disappearance of this particular germ - for the time being - and then: back to normal. As will the market be. Our little Band of Merry Men locally have much the same diversity as the forum and the press (moreso the press), from "OMG we're all gonna die!! Augh, augh!" to "Ima put this stuff on my ham sammich and show you guys!" The reality lies somewhere in between, and I'm an in between realist. My educated gut is, this isn't The Big One. The Big One will come, some day. This isn't it. When it does, if I'm still around, and you see my CUT in a response, you need to go and hide. Far away and very deep. Not now.

quote:

The reality lies somewhere in between, and I'm an in between realist. My educated gut is, this isn't The Big One.

Thanks, Doc. I agree.
But with disruptions in the supply chain (the world does depend on China more than we would like to admit) it may take a while to get back to 'normal'.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, I'm expecting a rebound tomorrow. Maybe dip down again during the week because of the aforementioned ninnies, but then ultimately recover mostly by Friday.

How's that for wishful thinking!

Allen-
I think tomorrow is the deadline for covering puts and calls which will probably exert some downward pressure on the market.
It could be a bumpy ride tomorrow but hopefully Wednesday (barring any new negative news) will hopefully see a partial recovery...

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

The reality lies somewhere in between, and I'm an in between realist. My educated gut is, this isn't The Big One.

Thanks, Doc. I agree.
But with disruptions in the supply chain (the world does depend on China more than we would like to admit) it may take a while to get back to 'normal'.

Most pundits were saying don't expect anything to improve for Q1 now I think they are looking at Q2.

Hopefully as someone mentioned this will drive some to move to India or other Asian nations.

We are traveling to South Eastern EU next week, direct to Heathrow so not worried about the inbound leg but stocking on hand sanitizer (and packing masks / goggles) for return leg.

Not overly concerned as we are going to what would be considered the middle of no where...86KM south of Krakow but we will be in Prague for a bit...still not really concerned.... at this point.

If the EU bursts into flames while we are there....(seriously don't expect this but hey I believe in a good E&E plan....good mental masturbation ) Uzgorod is a a hop skip and jump away and then to my in laws in Kharkiv

Reuters: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS SENDING TO CONGRESS A BUDGET REQUEST FOR $2.5 BILLION TO FIGHT CORONAVIRUS, INCLUDING MORE THAN $1 BILLION FOR VACCINES -WHITE HOUSE

https://twitter.com/Rover829/s.../1232105903781888001

While the market is overreacting to Italy and Iran today, stock prices will drop for companies that are expected to see lower margins (or losses) due to supply chain disruptions.

And the disruptions are coming soon. It's only a month since the shutdown of Wuhan, and ships are still arriving with Chinese goods (esp. materials and components) for a little longer. Ocean freight is about 5-6 weeks from China to US, and the warnings about missed shipments stared about three weeks ago. Along with the warnings came assertions of force majeure, or "not responsible due to an act of God". I was in Brazil last week and our plant there is already seeing some effects.

Given the popularity of tourism in Italy I can see how the virus may have gotten there.

But what about Iran? It just pops up there and no one knows why or how? Faster spread and deadlier due to poor infrastructure, lack of medical care, and gov't incompetence/lies.

Heard the fill-in on Mark Levin's radio show make an interesting point. The death rate is the number of dead divided by the total infected that are dead or fully recovered. It's not total dead divided by total infected because the data is not mature yet. And of course, we really don't know how many infected (or dead) there are except in countries where we can trust the data...

https://www.jwatch.org/na50961...sars-cov-2-infection

February 21, 2020
Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Stephen G. Baum, MD reviewing Zou L et al. N Engl J Med 2020 Feb 19 Hoehl S et al. N Engl J Med 2020 Feb 18

Two studies, one on the viral load of the novel 2019 coronavirus in upper respiratory secretions and another, the carriage of this virus by returning travelers from China, shed light on contagion of this virus.

The emergence of a novel SARS-like coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Hubei Province, China, and its rapid spread through many countries of Asia and elsewhere, have been labeled as an international emergency. The massive attempts at quarantine have had some salutary effects on the spread of this serious respiratory disease the virus causes, but much about the factors controlling contagion has yet to be discovered. Now, two brief reports that bear on communicability of this virus have been published.

Zou and colleagues measured SARS-CoV-2 viral load in 18 persons in Zhuhai, Guangdong, China (9 men and 9 women; median age, 59 years), including 4 secondary cases, one of whom was asymptomatic but was a close contact of a patient. Infection was confirmed in all patients by positive reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR). Of 14 primary cases, all had fever (>37.3ºC) and 13 had radiographic evidence of pneumonia. Multiple nasal and throat swabs were obtained from each subject, and viral load was calculated as the inverse of cycles necessary to detect virus. Nasal viral loads were higher than those in the throat, corelated with onset of symptoms, were highest in the first 10 to 12 days of illness, and were about as high in the asymptomatic patient as in the symptomatic patients.

Hoehl and colleagues report on 126 persons evacuated to Germany after a stay in Hubei Province. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 virus was found in 2 evacuees despite negative screening before departure. Ten of the 126 passengers were segregated either because of histories of contact with an infected patient, symptoms consistent with infection, or contact with family members thought to have infection. On arrival at a German hospital, all 10 tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. One of the remaining 116 passengers had fever to 38.4ºC and cough but tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, when 114 of the negative-screened patients underwent viral testing, 2 (1.8%) tested positive by RT-PCR and other genetic tests. Both were isolated but remained well 7 days later.

Comment

We still have a lot to learn about this virus and the disease it causes, COVID-19. These two studies provide some valuable (and cautionary) information. Current clinical screening does not pick up 100% of infected people. Virus, probably in infectious amounts, is present in minimally symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Although 14 days may encompass the vast majority of incubation periods, virus is present at least a few days after that in some people. All of these findings are typical of those in many other viral infections. Viral load correlates with symptom onset in those with symptoms and peaks earlier than the previously identified SARS coronavirus. These findings, if replicated, indicate that we have not mastered all of the precautionary measures that may be necessary to contain this epidemic and prevent a pandemic.

The problem today is media hype, viewer stats and money. The constant cry of "Wulf', be it da virus, da Climate change, da Ruskies meddling in our elections, onward ad nauseam, will do us in one of these times when it's real and no one cares to pay attention any longer.

Until I see help wanted ads for 'Bring out your Dead' collection squads, paying at least minimum wage, I'm just gonna sit back and wait until the adverts for such jobs.

If it gets bad enough, then President Trump, like President Ryan, will just impose a travel ban until da virus burns itself out.

You guys expecting a market recovery are in for a wild ride. It’s headed to 20,000 , maybe even 18,000.

quote:

Originally posted by icom706:
The problem today is media hype, viewer stats and money. The constant cry of "Wulf', be it da virus, da Climate change, da Ruskies meddling in our elections, onward ad nauseam, will do us in one of these times when it's real and no one cares to pay attention any longer.

Until I see help wanted ads for 'Bring out your Dead' collection squads, paying at least minimum wage, I'm just gonna sit back and wait until the adverts for such jobs.

If it gets bad enough, then President Trump, like President Ryan, will just impose a travel ban until da virus burns itself out.

How does something simply burn out with a two week incubation and reinfection possible? This thing was engineered and can even be absorbed through the eyes from what was said on here yesterday. I'm not worried, but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

quote:

Originally posted by Ackks:
but I can't see it going away anytime soon.

It'll probably "go away" come spring and warm weather. Just like the seasonal flu. But similarly, it'll be back. I have no idea why except the virus doesn't survive well on surfaces and in warm weather and high humidity.

I have no idea why humidity plays a role. Maybe desert area's should be concerned. Particularly at altitude where its cooler.

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
You guys expecting a market recovery are in for a wild ride. It’s headed to 20,000 , maybe even 18,000.

This may be the real deal. I've been active in the mkt since the 60s and pride myself on nerve. Buying dividend aristocrats at 52 week low has worked well since foresver. I didn't sell a thing in 08/09 and nibbled buying. Modified dogs of dow is me. This time may be different but I'm spread out and can handle some downside. Old and debt free. I start taking it real serious when stocks that don't miss/cut dividends start. Interesting times.