SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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Wait, what? |
There is validity to his statement, even if a little alarmist sounding. If you haven't noticed, the epidemic is having a global effect already. The stock market is dropping, supply lines are shrinking (just read a story where a large shipment of N95 masks from China has been recalled halfway across the Pacific) and stopping altogether. Someone posted a pic of the mask shelf already empty here in the relatively untouched United States. Fresh outbreaks with too many fatalities to have had it be the result of anything but an entrenched occurrence that was just now revealed. That means the spread is further along then realized. Even if the average mortality stays as low as it SEEMS in developed western countries, its still bad at 100X that of seasonal flu. Which globally equates to hundreds of millions. Early in this thread it was posited that I was really getting worked up over this thing when there were hundreds of reported cases and a handful of deaths. A month later, we are sitting at @80,000 cases with over 2600 deaths. IF everyone (cough cough China) is being honest. Even now I'm not ready to panic, but IF this gets going in western nations at a pace we cannot keep up with, the global economy will get wrecked. This is never a good scenario no matter what the emergency is. “Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown | |||
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Step by step walk the thousand mile road |
Don't forget the beer, blow, dope, and hookers. Nice is overrated "It's every freedom-loving individual's duty to lie to the government." Airsoftguy, June 29, 2018 | |||
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Member |
Much ado about nothing. Less than 2% afflicted will die. Mortality rates are higher for the flu. The media has to give us something to be frightened about. I'm more worried about Bernie and Bloomie. You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you're not capable of great violence, you're not peaceful, you're harmless. NRA Benefactor/Patriot Member | |||
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| Non-Miscreant |
Does beer and things like that keep well? How about hookers, do you expect to store them in the cool dark basement? I don't understand. All this time I expected beer to go bad after a couple of weeks. Brown liquor seems to keep its flavor better. And I thought hookers were a single use product. Use once and dispose. Probably high upkeep as well. Given the number of interactions with others, probably low hygene as well, they'll be gonners in the first round. After they die they would tend to stink, too. We already know that ammunition retains its properties well. Can anyone tell us how the dopers and such will handle the lack of availability?  Will we need ammo to run them off?Maybe its good the democraps are the only ones holding rallies, but Trump may be breaking the quarantine by holding his own. We are already voting for him, so stop burning fossil fuels flying near infected places. Stay home and laugh with the rest of us at the clowns who won't even discuss the calamity. We're all gonna die. Unhappy ammo seeker | |||
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| Wait, what? |
“Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown | |||
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| Wait, what? |
Not accurate. Covid1-19 disease has a mortality rate 10-20x higher than seasonal flu. Flu is .01 %; Coronavirus is somewhere around 1-2% from existing data. It is possible it is so high because China let it get way out of control, so hopefully totals will moderate. https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...tml%3foutputType=amp “Remember to get vaccinated or a vaccinated person might get sick from a virus they got vaccinated against because you’re not vaccinated.” - author unknown | |||
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| Member |
My take on this is this is that US will not see a high death rate but the bigger problem maybe if people start to panic. If people start avoiding public places, it will start to effect the economy greatly. The economy is like a dominos, once it starts it will run its course. | |||
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Member |
[/QUOTE]Don't forget the beer, blow, dope, and hookers.[/QUOTE] I made sure to add extra beer to my prep list. | |||
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| Member |
I have read the same thing from several sources. The Corona virus is far more lethal than the regular seasonal flu. Also, as of today at 1:00 pm the DOW is off by over 1000 points, all due to the corona virus. More bad news. | |||
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| Member |
Coronavirus: Iran death toll reportedly hits 50 as Kuwait, Bahrain, Afghanistan, Iraq announce first cases A report from Iran’s semi-official ILNA news agency said on Monday 50 people had died from the Covid-19 disease in the city of Qom Kuwait, Bahrain Afghanistan, and Iraq also confirmed their first novel coronavirus cases, health ministries in the three countries announced https://www.scmp.com/news/worl...st-coronavirus-cases Elsewhere in the region, Kuwait, Bahrain, Afghanistan and Iraq also confirmed their first cases. Kuwait reported three infections and Bahrain one, adding all had come from Iran. _________________________ "Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." Mark Twain | |||
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| Peace through superior firepower  |
Well, everyone is getting what they wanted- a big frenzy. How ya likn' it? How's that stock market doing with all this fun, huh? Thank the news media and thank all the other fear-mongers, be they groups or individuals. What this will come down to is that the panic over this bug will be more harmful to society than the bug itself. | |||
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| Victim of Life's Circumstances  |
I just bought more Walgreen's stock at $49.50. ________________________ God spelled backwards is dog | |||
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| SIGforum's Berlin Correspondent  |
Italy is very interesting. Before last Friday, they had three cases in two separate regions with no apparent link, and it's still unclear how it got there; one of the initial cases had been visited by a guy who had been to China, but the latter subsequently tested negative. Five days later - bam, 220-plus cases, seven deaths. The comparatively high fatality rate seems in part explained by one case bringing it to a hospital unrecognized, where it hit a population ripe with pre-existing conditions; the last two deaths were a cancer patient and an octogenarian admitted earlier with a heart attack. Iran is a black hole where it seems to have been only recognized when people started dying of it. The ratio of 60 known cases to twelve deaths is way out of proportion to anywhere else; even accounting for local lack of medical standards, the case count should be at least five times higher. And that's before we come to the suspected factor of three to ten in undetected cases elsewhere. And the Johns Hopkins tracking map seems to have folded under the demand. | |||
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| An investment in knowledge pays the best interest |
Nice summary Doc. To add to your synopsis, as an RNA virus, Coronavirus integration won't occur and latency isn't an issue. I'm highly skeptical of reinfection claims given the asymptomatic period brings into question when infection might actually occur. Like Para indicated, the worst part of this disease will be the hysteria it's kicking off and the market's reaction. Influenza appears far worse where infectivity is concerned (even if off by a factor of 10), greatly magnifying its low mortality rate vs. Covid-19. | |||
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| Something wild is loose  |
To be fair, this is the mortality rate in China as you point out. The calculated CFR by region varies considerably, and in the US is currently zero. That's a very small "n" (currently 35 infected, most asymptomatic), but the population of China is almost 1.5B, with the highest population density in the world, mostly concentrated in major cities, like the virus. The virus was first reported in December 2019, but was very likely in the population prior to that, just not concentrated. And the consequences of self-reporting or being diagnosed with COVID-19 are severe in mainland China, so the reported 77K+ "infected" cases is almost certainly low - very low. How low we don't know, but even a million is not unreasonable given the contact time and population density, which lowers the CFR considerably. This is not to say that SARS-CoV-2 is not a bad actor or incapable of causing a severe global pandemic - it is very possibly more transmissible than influenza B - but in the final tally it is likely, from what we currently know, to be no more deadly in an epidemiological sense with its genomic makeup and history (and that's certainly enough). It could get worse - viruses mutate at an alarming rate - but statistically it is likely to play out as a severe influenza pandemic. Likely nothing to match the Spanish Lady in 1918 (yet, and that had - and has - a combined mortality rate of around 2%), but at least close to a bad year for the flu. To which not many people, normally, pay much attention, although they should.This message has been edited. Last edited by: Doc H., "And gentlemen in England now abed, shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's Day" | |||
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Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
What s bunch of ninnies in the stock market. For chrissakes. ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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Nullus Anxietas |
This was bound to happen. By all accounts, even discounting the "news" media's propensity to hype things beyond all reason, SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 appears to be pretty wicked. Coupled with that is the fact it's impact so far has been primarily upon low-wage regions to which American manufacturers have (unwisely, IMO) outsourced nearly all production in the name of profit margin. Yup, our retirement account took a big hit today. I don't like it, but, having expected this shoe to drop, feeling it was almost inevitable, I'm not freaking out. I hope those of you who've been inclined to invest aggressively had the foresight to have shifted yourselves to a more conservative portfolio already. Not predicting, mind you, but I won't be surprised if this gets worse before it gets better. "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system,,,, but too early to shoot the bastards." -- Claire Wolfe "If we let things terrify us, life will not be worth living." -- Seneca the Younger, Roman Stoic philosopher | |||
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| Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
Well, I'm expecting a rebound tomorrow. Maybe dip down again during the week because of the aforementioned ninnies, but then ultimately recover mostly by Friday. How's that for wishful thinking! ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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| Freethinker |
I don’t follow the stock market very closely, but I seem to recall large swings due to things that were far less important to the economy than the shutdown of major suppliers in China due to the disease. Why are we surprised by the market’s reaction to this? ► 6.4/93.6 | |||
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| Tinker Sailor Soldier Pie |
Who here said he was surprised? ~Alan Acta Non Verba NRA Life Member (Patron) God, Family, Guns, Country Men will fight and die to protect women... because women protect everything else. ~Andrew Klavan | |||
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SIGforum.com Main Page The Lounge When will the coronavirus arrive in the US? (Disease: COVID-19; Virus: SARS-CoV-2)
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