quote:

Originally posted by kkina:

I'm sure you're right. I still think it's interesting that even made-up numbers must follow the rules of mathematics and statistics. Thus my academic interest in such an exercise.

The "surge" is a function of a few things. Increased testing; people from south of the boarder seeking care; people celebrating Memorial day/4th; normal summer travel; people getting fed up with their lives being shut down; people returning to work; mass gatherings in the streets; and the fact the illness is not a dangerous as first thought.

There's nothing unexpected. The fact that hospitals aren't being overwhelmed shows it's likely a very small uptick due to the above, but many cases were previously going undetected, so in reality there may be a 10-20% increase, but not a surge in cases. Again nothing that shouldn't be expected, there is no greater danger than there was last month or the one before.

^^Yes, I was hoping someone would comment on the fundamentals driving the surge.

The great thing about technical analysis is that the numbers don't care why something is happening. That's for a fundamental analyst to investigate. Tech only identifies known patterns associated with behaviors, but doesn't say why it's happening.

It's usually best to have both tools at one's disposal, although most people lean more heavily toward one side or another.

Parousing the internets I don't see anyone else calling an early termination of the surge. So if the numbers hold, maybe you heard it here first. We'll see how the rest of the week goes.

Wake me when we hit 60,800,000 cases...

quote:

Originally posted by kkina:
I still think it's interesting that even made-up numbers must follow the rules of mathematics and statistics. Thus my academic interest in such an exercise.

Manure

However many confirmed cases of covid are identified through testing, there are probably AT LEAST ten times that number of people walking around, who had a mild case of covid & got over it, thinking it was just a cold, or flu.

We're never going to know the true numbers.

https://twitter.com/prageru/st.../1287905496104484871

If what that doctor is saying is correct it's pretty amazing. She hasn't lost any high risk patients.

What she is saying was backed up the other night

quote:

Dr. Harvey Risch, an epidemiology professor at Yale School of Public Health, said on Tuesday that he thinks hydroxychloroquine could save 75,000 to 100,000 lives if the drug is widely used to treat coronavirus.

"There are many doctors that I’ve gotten hostile remarks about saying that all the evidence is bad for it and, in fact, that is not true at all,” Risch told "Ingraham Angle," adding that he believes the drug can be used as a "prophylactic" for front-line workers, as other countries like India have done.

Risch lamented that a "propaganda war" is being waged against the use of the drug for political purposes, not based on "medical facts."

https://www.foxnews.com/media/...raham-yale-professor

quote:

Originally posted by Ironbutt:
However many confirmed cases of covid are identified through testing, there are probably AT LEAST ten times that number of people walking around, who had a mild case of covid & got over it, thinking it was just a cold, or flu.

I believe we saw early numbers supporting that when more widespread available testing was done in CA and other spots. However I think that talking point gets weaker and weaker with the passage of time and more and more testing.

Why? Because while that certainly could have been true back in Jan-Mar/Apr, I don't think someone who thinks they just have the flu and is showing flu-like symptoms isn't going to be tested today. That's no doubt what is driving up the % of positive tests of those tested as well as the overall positive test count.

I'd venture a guess that even the most staunch of the scamdemic town criers amongst us would get tested if they showed serious flu-like symptoms. They should since no matter your view on the inflation of the politics of the pandemic there are treatments available to lessen the duration and severity of the illness. Not taking advantage of that would be silly.

Twitter Locks Trump Jr Account For Posting Press Conference By Pro-Hydroxychloroquine Doctors

https://www.zerohedge.com/poli...ychloroquine-doctors

Twitter locked the account of Donald Trump Jr. for approximately 12 hours, after the president's son posted a viral video of doctors touting Hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19.

The video, which received over 14 million views before it was blacklisted and scrubbed by Facebook, Twitter and YouTube following a complaint by a New York Times employee, featured members of America's Frontline Doctors - a recently formed advocacy group which claims that "American life has fallen casualty to a massive disinformation campaign" against Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) - a decades-old malaria drug used by India and several other countries as part of their front-line treatment of the novel coronavirus, yet which has shown mixed efficacy in studies.

So are we getting our health information from Twitter, FB, and tic tok now?

I'm going to trust a doctor over a guy that plays with computers.

quote:

I'm going to trust a doctor over a guy that plays with computers.

I said the same thing back in early June. It was met with this rant:


"Yeah? Well, how do these trustworthy docs feel about IDIOTIC LEFTIST GOVERNORS AND BUREAUCRATS DESTROYING THE BEST ECONOMY ANYONE DRAWING BREATH RIGHT NOW WILL EVER SEE?

And how do they feel about all the ignorant, gullible sheep who allowed it to happen, and who actually support this absolute insanity?

"Middle ground"??? These America-hating and Trump-hating assholes have destroyed countless lives. Is that supposed to be their function??

Middle ground?? What a joke"

zip, somehow I do not think you are going to take this thread back through this again. But hey, it is just a guess.

Either you a have a short memory or got some new britches that need broke in. I'd leave it alone if I was you based on the last goround.

Zippy...

This message has been edited. Last edited by: erj_pilot,

quote:

Originally posted by zipriderson:
I said the same thing back in early June. It was met with this rant

That's me you're quoting, and you are playing with fire.

STOP playing the victim. Leave me out of your martyrdom. Fair warning- don't ever again do that. You are about to piss me off royally, and you are about to find out.

You don't like the prevailing opinion here. Well, y' know what? TOUGH SHIT

Your participation in this thread is not required, and if you can't stop with the "poor, abused me" crap, don't post in this thread. This is not the first time I've told you this, but it's certainly the last. I'm sick of your whining.

quote:

I believe we saw early numbers supporting that when more widespread available testing was done in CA and other spots. However I think that talking point gets weaker and weaker with the passage of time and more and more testing.

Why? Because while that certainly could have been true back in Jan-Mar/Apr, I don't think someone who thinks they just have the flu and is showing flu-like symptoms isn't going to be tested today. That's no doubt what is driving up the % of positive tests of those tested as well as the overall positive test count.

I think this your premise is correct but also consider the following from the CDC website:

"As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths." A probable case, again per the CDC, is when a patient presents with "[a]t least two of the following symptoms: fever (measured or subjective), chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, sore throat, new olfactory and taste disorder(s) OR At least one of the following symptoms: cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing OR Severe respiratory illness with at least one of the following: Clinical or radiographic evidence of pneumonia, OR Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) AND No alternative more likely diagnosis."

If you go to the doctor with a fever and a headache, chills and a sore throat, or a cough, and there is no more likely diagnosis, you are counted as positive for COVID without laboratory testing. That impacts the numbers significantly because there are a lot of people (at least down here) who are going to the doctor but not getting tested (because they don't want to wait in line for 4-5 hours and then get the results 12-14 days later).

quote:

Originally posted by erj_pilot:
Skins and Zippy...

Well then explain it to me like I'm really stupid.

If you think it's ok that the interwebz companies get to sensor doctors (and the son of our President) and form the narrative that the American people can hear great.

My point in case you didn't get it was these companies, and further the MSM should not be political actors and instead should provide a platform for people to speak or in the case of MSM objective information or mark things that are editorials as such.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
So are we getting our health information from Twitter, FB, and tic tok now?

I'm going to trust a doctor over a guy that plays with computers.

Twitter, FB, are nothing more than electronic conduits designed to allow people to disseminate information, quickly, effectively, to billions of people, at a reduced cost.

Twitter isn't sending out messages, people are sending messages out on Twitter, doctors, governments, entertainment people, everyday people.

The information one chooses to trust depends on from whom they are getting the information, not the delivery method.

If face to face with a physician is deemed the method someone chooses to accept delivery of information, that's their choice.

The method of accepting information shouldn't be reduced to denigrating others for choosing to get their information via a different medium.

HRK, I know what these services are. They are protected by Sec 230 and are to act like the phone company and allow exchange of ideas, speech, and expression. Instead they are acting as arbiters, allowing only ideas they agree with through, and blocking those that they don't agree with. This flies in the face of sec 230 and needs to stop. Twitter et al should not have the ability to limit the ideas I can see based on their views. Sec 230 needs to be reformed or these players need to act as an open platform for all.

quote:

Twitter, FB, are nothing more than electronic conduits designed to allow people to disseminate information, quickly, effectively, to billions of people, at a reduced cost.

Twitter isn't sending out messages, people are sending messages out on Twitter, doctors, governments, entertainment people, everyday people.

The information one chooses to trust depends on from whom they are getting the information, not the delivery method.

Except that information is getting censored or blocked by what you call "electronic conduits".
They are more than mere "conduits" when they decide what information can and cannot be transmitted or viewed.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:
Well then explain it to me like I'm really stupid.

If you think it's ok that the interwebz companies get to sensor doctors (and the son of our President) and form the narrative that the American people can hear great.

My point in case you didn't get it was these companies, and further the MSM should not be political actors and instead should provide a platform for people to speak or in the case of MSM objective information or mark things that are editorials as such.

OK...you get the point. Your identity will summarily be removed from my post. I totally missed the sarcasm in your post that was castigating Twatter, Fakebook, et. al.

One point that might be getting convoluted is that (unfortunately) these platforms are now a permanent conduit to the spread of information. They are (again, unfortunately) a necessary evil for the world in which we now live. To discount them as a means of information works against "us". My interpretation of your post was that medical information has no business being disseminated on these platforms. Confusion on my part and I apologize.

My sincere apologies overall! I beg forgiveness...