quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:
...
However, if a vaccine is 6 months away, and I happen to live a few miles from the nursing home where 9 people just died, do you really think I should just ignore it? Not take any precautions to keep my wife and kids safe?

Because that's what I'm hearing from some of you guys in ski town , Utah and the red part of Minnesota, who don't live next door to it.

Do you, your wife or kids live in a nursing home? Are any of you over 70 with underlying health conditions?

No, we don't live in a nursing home. But that's irrelevant as 6 death were nursing home patients, the other 3 were not.

Yes to the underlying health conditions, but even if she didn't, I still don't want her catching any flu, let alone this one.

Also, I'm not talking about myself. I'm not doing anything differently than I ever have.

I'm just saying that others, family, neighbors, etc, who decide they're doing shit differently now, aren't being unreasonable.

For those guys who are spouting advice about how no-one should be changing their routines, feel free to give that advice to your own family when it arrives in your neighborhood.

No-one here is saying that the sky is falling. Just saying that getting sick sucks. Why would any reasonable person not adjust their routines to avoid getting sick?

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Originally posted by MNSIG:

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Originally posted by Ken226:

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Originally posted by MNSIG:

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Originally posted by Ken226:If a quarter of the US population catch this every flu season for the next hundred years, a 2% death rate becomes concerning.

Right. No vaccine or treatment in the next F'n century. That's realistic.

Yea, no-one predicted that a vaccine wouldn't happen.

You're the one that brought up a quarter of the population catching it for the next hundred years. One hundred years ago, we had no penicillin, no flu vaccine and people were dying of polio. Things change.

Yea,

Vaccines also exist for all the strains that people catch during flue season. Even with a vaccine, it very likely will still be popping up for a long time. I'm sure a vaccine will help, for those that can get vaccinated.

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:

No-one here is saying that the sky is falling. Just saying that getting sick sucks. Why would any reasonable person not adjust their routines to avoid getting sick?

You should be doing what you would always normally be doing during a flu season. No?

Stay safe man. I get your concern since you live close to "ground zero".

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:
....

I agree. I'm not prepping, I havn't been to Costco in months. I'm not doing anything any different than ever.

But since I live right up the road from this outbreak that has killed 9 people, contrary to the opinions of some guys here from MN and UT, I don't think the people here in Western Washington are being unreasonable if they decide not to go to the movie theater or head down to TMobile stadium to watch a Seahawks game either.

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226: Just saying that getting sick sucks. Why would any reasonable person not adjust their routines to avoid getting sick?

Nothing to adjust. I practice good infection control procedures every day of my life. I wash my hands all the time, use hand sanitizer and am constantly aware of what I touch. As I noted in an earlier post, after 30 years as a dentist, it's as natural as breathing. I don't want to get a cold, flu (I do get a flu shot) or Norovirus. COVID-19 falls in the same category for me.

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:

No-one here is saying that the sky is falling. Just saying that getting sick sucks. Why would any reasonable person not adjust their routines to avoid getting sick?

You should be doing what you would always normally be doing during a flu season. No?

No.

I usually don't do anything at all to avoid getting the flu. I'm fine with getting the flu, because It usually has little effect on me.

But with a Corona virus outbreak nearby, and even though there's almost no chance this shit'll kill me, or my family, I still don't want to catch it. The symptoms suck an order of magnitude worse than the regular flu.


So, I'm going take take whatever precautions I feel like taking.

You feel free to do the same once it arrives there in Ski Town.

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Originally posted by Ken226:The symptoms suck an order of magnitude worse than the regular flu.

You might want to do a bit more reading. That is not true.

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Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
I guess I don't get the prepping mentality here. It doesn't seem like this virus is really going to threaten us with food shortages (i mean, actual shortages, not panic-induced media-hyped runs on Costco). And if it did, a couple of weeks of rice and beans isn't going to make much of a difference.

Can't answer for everyone, but for me I bought supplies. A couple of weeks of long shelf life dehydrated food, plus I bought a little extra stock of things I always have in the house, if I don't need it, great, I have part of my groceries paid for in advance, if I do need it then I'll be really happy I brought it. There really is no downside other that initial outlay for long term stuff. Bought four extra cases of water, guess what I drink water in good and bad times, I eat rice wether it's zika season, flu season, da bola season, etc. I saved a ton of money by buying the rice in bulk and by buying whole cuts of meat and vacuum sealing individual steaks, another win for this guy.

It makes me feel all warm and cozy knowing that I'm prepared for zombie apocalypse or have food if I lose my job. A little self space in my basement is no big deal to me.

Put it this way, you carry a gun daily? What do you think the odds are you are going to have to shoot someone? Makes me happy my wife won't set foot out the door unarmed.

It gives me great comfort to know if I need to self quarantine, I'm going to do it with a handle of liquor and a nicely cooked ribeye. Or maybe it skips right over my area (25mi west of DC, 3 miles from a major international airport) and I still get a mixed drink and a steak.

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Originally posted by MNSIG:

You might want to do a bit more reading. That is not true.

More reading, as opposed to first hand info from people who have had it? This has been floating around for a month up here.

You do whatever you please, based on the info you have. I'll do the same.

Well, there’s officially a shortage of medical supplies. I can’t get fancy bandages for burn patients anymore. That sucks.

That’s just one example of vital medical supplies in short stock right now.

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Originally posted by ergoproxy:
100 Proof! That should be strong enough to disinfect the grocery cart handles with while having a swig.

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, of course one should take certain precautions.

.....

Never waste good liquor on disinfecting external things. Use cheap or junk booze for that. Look to see what the bums are drinking (done by looking at discarded empties). Like so many things, barrel proof is even better! For those who say they don't "water" their booze, I'm mostly thinking they let the distillery do that for them.

OK, I've got a small stash or grain (Everclear) that's for emergency use. I'll use up the end of my Clorox wipes first. And I'd guess gasoline will also disinfect pretty good. No one has mentioned it yet. Things have got to get pretty bad before I'll use good booze for that.

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Originally posted by Ken226:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

You should be doing what you would always normally be doing during a flu season. No?

No.

I usually don't do anything at all to avoid getting the flu. I'm fine with getting the flu, because It usually has little effect on me.

But with a Corona virus outbreak nearby, and even though there's almost no chance this shit'll kill me, or my family, I still don't want to catch it. The symptoms suck an order of magnitude worse than the regular flu.


So, I'm going take take whatever precautions I feel like taking.

You feel free to do the same once it arrives there in Ski Town.

This post is a bit confusing to me. Or perhaps I should say contradictory. By flu, are you referring to the common cold? Because flu symptoms are apparently very similar to COVID-19.

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

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Originally posted by Ken226:

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

You should be doing what you would always normally be doing during a flu season. No?

No.

I usually don't do anything at all to avoid getting the flu. I'm fine with getting the flu, because It usually has little effect on me.

But with a Corona virus outbreak nearby, and even though there's almost no chance this shit'll kill me, or my family, I still don't want to catch it. The symptoms suck an order of magnitude worse than the regular flu.


So, I'm going take take whatever precautions I feel like taking.

You feel free to do the same once it arrives there in Ski Town.

This post is a bit confusing to me. Or perhaps I should say contradictory. By flu, are you referring to the common cold? Because flu symptoms are apparently very similar to COVID-19.

Contradictory? Because I said the flu usually has little effect on me, but later said I don't want to catch Covid19 due to the symptoms?

The flu -usually- has little effect. Covid19 isn't influenza, it'll almost certainly have an effect.

By "flu", I'm referring to any of the typical influenza strains endemic to the population, and seasonally vaccinated against. Such as influenza A and B.

I usually am unable to go out of my way to avoid these, because my job requires me to be close proximity to large numbers of traveling people from all over the world. I typically catch it before flue season has even started. I call in sick untill the symptoms, if any, go away, then go back to work and catch another version.

After 17 years of this, I tend to not get very sick from the normal strains anymore, so I don't do much to avoid the regular flu. When I'm rotated down to the SW Border, I'm exposed to several dozen people per day who have it, but either don't catch it or don't get any symptoms. Though last year I caught some kind of Guatemalan respiratory thing, working in El Paso, that tore me up good.

Right now, the state of WA is expecting the number of infected to double every week, with about 500 believed to likely currently be infected in northern King and Snohomish counties.

Having been sicker than a dog for the last couple weeks with a nasty viral sinus infection, I am perhaps a little more gunshy than I’d normally be. That said, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to have enough stock on the things that we normally use to be able to avoid going shopping for a few weeks if things get nasty around here. We tend to buy in quantity anyway, and when we need something get enough of it so we won’t need more for a month or two. This is more looking at everything instead of just what is low or what is on sale now. YMMV.

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Originally posted by midwest guy:

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Originally posted by StorminNormin:

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Originally posted by asonie:
While I’m always an advocate of taking reasonable precautions against disaster, do people really believe that this is a lights out/water supply failure-level event? Of course it’s good to have some water stashed but does anybody really believe the tap is going to run dry because of this???

I agree. From things I have read, the flu is more of a threat and has a higher mortality rate than Coronavirus. On average the flu kills half a million people world-wide each year, or 2% mortality rate. I did the math on the number today of people known to be infected with Coronavirus and to have died and the mortality rate is .45%. Of course the Coronavirus is not as established yet as the flu, but I just don’t thing it is a super threat as being reacted to. I went to stores today for errands and noticed gloves, masks, Tylenol, Advil, cold medicine, and hand cleaner are either totally wiped out or almost wiped out. If the flu really is deadlier, than people should be panic buying at the start of flu season.

With all due respect I haven’t seen those mortality rates you are presenting. Maybe you would source the information that is giving you those mortality rates.

I was doing my own calculation and apparently made a big mistake somehow so I stand corrected. Looking at the stats as of yesterday, the mortality rate of Coronavirus was 3.4% so it is indeed more deadly than the flu. I am sorry for the mistake and I appreciate people getting me to look at it again.

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Originally posted by StorminNormin:

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Originally posted by midwest guy:

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Originally posted by StorminNormin:

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Originally posted by asonie:
While I’m always an advocate of taking reasonable precautions against disaster, do people really believe that this is a lights out/water supply failure-level event? Of course it’s good to have some water stashed but does anybody really believe the tap is going to run dry because of this???

I agree. From things I have read, the flu is more of a threat and has a higher mortality rate than Coronavirus. On average the flu kills half a million people world-wide each year, or 2% mortality rate. I did the math on the number today of people known to be infected with Coronavirus and to have died and the mortality rate is .45%. Of course the Coronavirus is not as established yet as the flu, but I just don’t thing it is a super threat as being reacted to. I went to stores today for errands and noticed gloves, masks, Tylenol, Advil, cold medicine, and hand cleaner are either totally wiped out or almost wiped out. If the flu really is deadlier, than people should be panic buying at the start of flu season.

With all due respect I haven’t seen those mortality rates you are presenting. Maybe you would source the information that is giving you those mortality rates.

I was doing my own calculation and apparently made a big mistake somehow so I stand corrected. Looking at the stats as of yesterday, the mortality rate of Coronavirus was 3.4% so it is indeed more deadly than the flu. I am sorry for the mistake and I appreciate people getting me to look at it again.

Just to put it in perspective and assuming those numbers hold true, assume that everyone in the world becomes infected. That means 265,200,000 will die as a result of the virus. 265M is a lot of people.

'Tis a wide brush you paint with. Somehow calculating a worldwide average from sketchy at best numbers. You wouldn't expect the same mortality here in America as you would in some 3rd world shithole with no medical care for miles (or kilometers). Nor would you expect similar mortality in a place with clean air as you would in one that is very polluted.

The same would hold true if you live in a city with multiple hospitals and clinics or out in the sticks without care for miles. And many of us don't like even going to the doctor. But some of us live with health professionals. That could cut either way. A problem we do have is our forced attendance in government schools. Maybe we should call them incubators.

Too many variables in all this. So drink straight barrel strength bourbon. Might not kill the bugs, but you'll feel better. And unlike medicines, the more you drink the better you'll feel.

quote:

Originally posted by rburg:
'Tis a wide brush you paint with. Somehow calculating a worldwide average from sketchy at best numbers. You wouldn't expect the same mortality here in America as you would in some 3rd world shithole with no medical care for miles (or kilometers). Nor would you expect similar mortality in a place with clean air as you would in one that is very polluted.

The same would hold true if you live in a city with multiple hospitals and clinics or out in the sticks without care for miles. And many of us don't like even going to the doctor. But some of us live with health professionals. That could cut either way. A problem we do have is our forced attendance in government schools. Maybe we should call them incubators.

Too many variables in all this. So drink straight barrel strength bourbon. Might not kill the bugs, but you'll feel better. And unlike medicines, the more you drink the better you'll feel.

Oh I'm not really using sketchy numbers but instead the actual numbers that currently exist.

I expect fewer people will die in the US and much more than 3.4% in China, India, N. Korea, S. America or similar places. That's why it's the average, subject to being changed.

My prep is nothing more than doing what I already do: washing hands, using Purel based stuff out in public, eating well and getting good sleep.

My BIL was advised today that one of his students and their family is in self quarantine.

Students family went to Young Israel of New Rochelle where one man tested positive.

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Originally posted by Ken226:
Though last year I caught some kind of Guatemalan respiratory thing, working in El Paso, that tore me up good.

I'm very curious to hear more about this.

This COVID-19 isn't the only coronavirus out there. Perhaps you caught another variation.