I wonder if China only counted the ones who died in hospitals, I'd imagine that'd be the case.

quote:

Originally posted by RAMIUS:
I wonder if China only counted the ones who died in hospitals, I'd imagine that'd be the case.

They probably only counted the ones they couldn't hide readily.

Yes, the flu, car accidents and many other things kill more people than has died from the Corona virus so far.

Obviously the concern isn't over the current number of infections and deaths. The concern is over the future possibilities.

If a quarter of the US population catch this every flu season for the next hundred years, a 2% death rate becomes concerning.

Hmmmm... I think that is in the definition of "panic" somewhere.

From dictionary.com

noun
sudden uncontrollable fear or anxiety, often causing wildly unthinking behavior.

I'm sure somewhere, people are panicking. But altering ones daily routine to mitigate risk doesn't necessarily meet the above definition.

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:

I'm sure somewhere, people are panicking. But altering ones daily routine to mitigate risk doesn't necessarily meet the above definition.

There is absolutely no good reason that people should be altering their daily routines. This media driven hysteria is shameful.

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:If a quarter of the US population catch this every flu season for the next hundred years, a 2% death rate becomes concerning.

Right. No vaccine or treatment in the next F'n century. That's realistic.

quote:

Originally posted by Georgeair:
2-packs of hand sanitizer from 3rd party on AMZN for $120.

At first I balked at the price. But hey, it is a 2-pack. Only 1 left. Need to act fast.

quote:

Originally posted by Skins2881:

This is something I also don't understand. Should be deaths/resolved cases, not deaths/infected. If it were months from now deaths/infected would be fine, but for those who have yet to die/recover, why are they being counted?

It has been decades since my last epidemiology course but as I recall this is the approach that we were instructed to use early in any infectious outbreak since you would have no idea what the actual number of infected was or how many have been killed by the infection. Early data is always incomplete and noisy. The calculation is: Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered)x 100. These data you can determine a little better - the patients are either dead or recovered/released at the point in time when you do the calculation.

Another important point was that as epidemic progresses and control actions are taken, this number should steadily decrease until the event is over and it reaches a steady state by disappearing or the agent/disease becomes endemic in the population. That is when the classic formula for CFR and other risk metrics become more reliable and informative.

CDC Measures of Risk

__________________________________________________________

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:If a quarter of the US population catch this every flu season for the next hundred years, a 2% death rate becomes concerning.

Right. No vaccine or treatment in the next F'n century. That's realistic.

Yea, no-one predicted that a vaccine wouldn't happen.

However, if a vaccine is 6 months away, and I happen to live a few miles from the nursing home where 9 people just died, do you really think I should just ignore it? Not take any precautions to keep my wife and kids safe?

Because that's what I'm hearing from some of you guys in ski town , Utah and the red part of Minnesota, who don't live next door to it.

I guess I don't get the prepping mentality here. It doesn't seem like this virus is really going to threaten us with food shortages (i mean, actual shortages, not panic-induced media-hyped runs on Costco). And if it did, a couple of weeks of rice and beans isn't going to make much of a difference.

Well, of course one should take certain precautions.

quote:

Originally posted by ChicagoSigMan:
I guess I don't get the prepping mentality here. It doesn't seem like this virus is really going to threaten us with food shortages (i mean, actual shortages, not panic-induced media-hyped runs on Costco). And if it did, a couple of weeks of rice and beans isn't going to make much of a difference.

I agree. I'm not prepping, I havn't been to Costco in months. I'm not doing anything any different than ever.

But since I live right up the road from this outbreak that has killed 9 people, contrary to the opinions of some guys here from MN and UT, I don't think the people here in Western Washington are being unreasonable if they decide not to go to the movie theater or head down to TMobile stadium to watch a Seahawks game either.

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:
...
However, if a vaccine is 6 months away, and I happen to live a few miles from the nursing home where 9 people just died, do you really think I should just ignore it? Not take any precautions to keep my wife and kids safe?

Because that's what I'm hearing from some of you guys in ski town , Utah and the red part of Minnesota, who don't live next door to it.

Do you, your wife or kids live in a nursing home? Are any of you over 70 with underlying health conditions?

I'm tired of hearing about it, so I'm working hard to start the rumor that it can be killed by vaping. (But only with strawberry-kiwi flavor.)

100 Proof! That should be strong enough to disinfect the grocery cart handles with while having a swig.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
Well, of course one should take certain precautions.

.....

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:

quote:

Originally posted by MNSIG:

quote:

Originally posted by Ken226:If a quarter of the US population catch this every flu season for the next hundred years, a 2% death rate becomes concerning.

Right. No vaccine or treatment in the next F'n century. That's realistic.

Yea, no-one predicted that a vaccine wouldn't happen.

You're the one that brought up a quarter of the population catching it for the next hundred years. One hundred years ago, we had no penicillin, no flu vaccine and people were dying of polio. Things change.

quote:

...a couple of weeks of rice and beans isn't going to make much of a difference.

To the "now typical" American family, quite a few wouldn't know how to act if faced with "rice and beans" for more than one meal, let alone a couple weeks.

I don't get the "preper" stuff either, but folks on here are generally more prepared than most.