quote:

Originally posted by Killer:
Serious question now, has anyone seen any interviews from someone who has had Covid-19 and recovered?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJbK7IA6Bfw is the only direct interview I've come across. And it's heavily cut/edited, and pretty lacking in information.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16...-intl-hnk/index.html has some additional printed quotes and info from the same guy.

The only person who was good at these forecasts was Martzy (Mars Attacks). He has yet to bring out his crystal ball (the one he used on the Japanese nuke). So having no one even remotely reliable to guess for us, we do need a math expert. The formula should be fairly simple. The flue and this thing should taper off in April, about the same time as the annual flu. By May, it'll be gone for 6 or so months. So lets guess its got 2 more months to do its magic. Same as the flu. Then we can just package them up for another 6 months.

Or beg Martyz to wake up and come into the thread.

Put me firmly in the unconcerned camp. I'm traveling outside of the US this weekend and have zero concerns about safety.

The outbreak is certainly going to cause some economic distress short term as China gets a handle on this, but this virus is not the boogeyman by a long stretch.

Having been in China a couple of times I can make the observation that it is the perfect environment for a respiratory virus to cause a lot of damage. Air quality is appalling, and everybody, it seems, smokes. Pulmonary health has got to be compromised from the start. Public sanitation is also appalling. Go into any public restroom (or don't, they are disgusting). People spit everywhere. nobody seems to have a sense of personal space. And the hospitals: not even close to US standards. I was touring a local hospital and people were smoking in the halls of the pulmonary ward. Combine that with a government that cares more about its image on the world stage than the people and you're set up perfectly for the current situation.

That said, I enjoyed my trips to China quite a bit. The people there are super friendly and helpful, and parts of the country absolutely stunning once you get out of the population centers. But you can go from 2nd world cities to basically 3rd world conditions pretty quickly. I imagine we went through similar growing pains (within a better system of course).

quote:

Originally posted by Hound Dog:
It is too early for me to get too excited about this. I wouldn't trust the Chinese if they told me the sky was blue and night was dark, so we will have to wait until it hits somewhere 'civilized' (Australia, Europe, Canadia) before we can make a decent danger assessment.

Outside Mainland China (including Hong Kong and Macao), mortality is currently 0.5 percent. There are a little over 800 cases and four deaths, one each in the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and France. Three of those were Chinese tourists, one the mother-in-law of a Japanese taxi driver. Two were aged 80, one 61 with diabetes and Hepatitis B; one was 44, allegedly also with pre-existing health conditions.

I'm not losing sleep about this.

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:... Where does this statistic come from?
Thanks!

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)

.1, actually.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

"...Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on February 13, 2020, 6.8% of the deaths occurring during the week ending February 1, 2020 (week 5) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 5. ..."

https://www.contagionlive.com/...ded-in-201920-season
"... the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza decreased from 7.1% to 6.7%. ..."


If I am misreading or not comprehending the %, let me know.

"Dammit Jim, I'm monkey, not a doctor!"

Why are we calling it the Covid—19 virus? That’s just the PC name that the PC assholes renamed it to because the dopey assholes thought a virus with a Mexican beer name was negative towards Asians.

quote:

Originally posted by limblessbiff:
Why are we calling it the Covid—19 virus? That’s just the PC name that the PC assholes renamed it to because the dopey assholes thought a virus with a Mexican beer name was negative towards Asians.

No, that's the shortened name assigned to this disease to differentiate this specific one from the 15 or so other coronavirus diseases out there. It stands for "COronaVIrus Disease 2019.

It's not even the name for the virus itself, which has been assigned "SARS-CoV-2". Again, to differentiate it from the 20 or so other coronaviruses out there.

Despite it being the term that everyone latched onto at the beginning, "Coronavirus" is just a general term for an entire subcategory of virus, not a name specific to this one virus or its resulting disease.

Not to forget, all the "Cinco de Die-O" jokes, we were gonna have.

quote:

Originally posted by BansheeOne:

quote:

Originally posted by Hound Dog:
It is too early for me to get too excited about this. I wouldn't trust the Chinese if they told me the sky was blue and night was dark, so we will have to wait until it hits somewhere 'civilized' (Australia, Europe, Canadia) before we can make a decent danger assessment.

Outside Mainland China (including Hong Kong and Macao), mortality is currently 0.5 percent. There are a little over 800 cases and four deaths, one each in the Philippines, Japan, Taiwan and France. Three of those were Chinese tourists, one the mother-in-law of a Japanese taxi driver. Two were aged 80, one 61 with diabetes and Hepatitis B; one was 44, allegedly also with pre-existing health conditions.

I'm not losing sleep about this.

If 60% of the worlds population caught the virus and the death rate was .5 then 24 million people would die.

4.8 billion X .005

This message has been edited. Last edited by: wcb6092,

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
Not to forget, all the "Cinco de Die-O" jokes, we were gonna have.

I died.

From laughing, not Corona.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:... Where does this statistic come from?
Thanks!

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)

.1, actually.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

"...Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on February 13, 2020, 6.8% of the deaths occurring during the week ending February 1, 2020 (week 5) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 5. ..."

https://www.contagionlive.com/...ded-in-201920-season
"... the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza decreased from 7.1% to 6.7%. ..."


If I am misreading or not comprehending the %, let me know.

"Dammit Jim, I'm monkey, not a doctor!"

Looking at this CDC page, it appears the death ratio you cited mirror deaths compared to hospitalizations. Look at the pyramid down the page.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:...

Looking at this CDC page, it appears the death ratio you cited mirror deaths compared to hospitalizations. Look at the pyramid down the page.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Ah. I see.
So, is there a similar pyramid that shows this CoV's data?

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:...

Looking at this CDC page, it appears the death ratio you cited mirror deaths compared to hospitalizations. Look at the pyramid down the page.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Ah. I see.
So, is there a similar pyramid that shows this CoV's data?

Not that I’ve seen; I’m thinking it’s too early to generate any reliable numbers. I expect over time for the morality percentage to decrease. I imagine we’ll know more reasonable numbers as the disease is dealt with by western medicine rather than what is currently occurring in China.

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)

Really? I thought it was 0.1% for the flu. I’ve had the flu many times. I know many people who have had the flu many times. I don’t know anyone who has died from the flu. I know people die from it, but 7% mortality? Where does this statistic come from?
Thanks!

I know (I should say knew) three people that died from the flu in the last two years, and one of them was only 34 and in good health.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

"...Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on February 13, 2020, 6.8% of the deaths occurring during the week ending February 1, 2020 (week 5) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 5. ..."

https://www.contagionlive.com/...ded-in-201920-season
"... the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza decreased from 7.1% to 6.7%. ..."


If I am misreading or not comprehending the %, let me know.

"Dammit Jim, I'm monkey, not a doctor!"

The statistic you are citing is combining pneumonia and influenza deaths together.

I'm not a doctor and I don't play one on TV. But for a true Apples to Apples comparison to COVID-19 you would have to look at people who did not previous illness and then became sick with influenza.

From what I understand, it is not uncommon for people to develop a disease that compromises their immune system, but does not kill them outright. They then develop bacterial pneumonia and that's what eventually does them in.

Now my understanding of COVID-19 is that it can infect the lower part of the respiratory tract, the lungs. This is in effect a viral pneumonia and the patient eventually suffocates to death.

^^^

Thanks.

I wish to see relevant and reliable data that makes a comparison to a "similar" (as close as can be) disease.

In other words, two viruses that have a similar method of transmission, resulting mortality due to the virus, as well as the mortality from secondary complications, and if the immune system builds a natural defense, or if vaccine(s) can be built against it.

So, typical flu vs (this)CoV.

There is a lot of "noise" in the reporting of this (as I mentioned before), and while a great deal of that is hype, played up by a media that thrives on the dollars generated by viewership, and by many who simply want a loud drum to beat (and the CoV type issue is such a ready made drum).

I also believe that if this same thing had originate in the USA, it would be a whole different event, with very different results over the same given timeline.

However, that is pure conjecture, and we are unlikely to ever know that.

So here is my questions. We know that there are thousands of people that have survived being infected with the Coronavirus and fully recovered. These people now have Coronavirus antibodies in their blood. Could we not use some of these people's blood to create an anti-virus shot, etc. ??? Again I am not a doctor nor do I play one on TV, but I did play doctor when I was much younger with my next door neighbor's daughter. God Bless

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by slosig:... Where does this statistic come from?
Thanks!

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

7% mortality for flu. (in the USA, where we have some of the best protocols for dealing with health)

.1, actually.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2

"...Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance
Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on February 13, 2020, 6.8% of the deaths occurring during the week ending February 1, 2020 (week 5) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 5. ..."

https://www.contagionlive.com/...ded-in-201920-season
"... the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza decreased from 7.1% to 6.7%. ..."


If I am misreading or not comprehending the %, let me know.

"Dammit Jim, I'm monkey, not a doctor!"

Ah, I believe I see the difference. If I am reading your above post correctly, it is saying that roughly seven percent of the people who died died of flu and pneumonia. That is an impressive number and nothing to sneeze at, but different from saying that 7% of the people who got the flu died from it. (The number I think of when I think of mortality rate of a disease, but I may have that all wrong.)

One recent report indicated that people who were infected once with the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 may not be immune to reinfection. If so, that would be unusual, but hardly unknown. And as I’ve mentioned before, many viral diseases that are being followed these days, such as Ebola, are being found to have lasting adverse effects on their victims even after they have “recovered.” In one study, nearly 50 % of people who contracted West Nile disease suffered long term neurological effects, regardless of how severely the initial disease bout affected them.

At this time it is too early to know whether something like that will be discovered of this disease.

^^^ I read the same thing and if I remember correctly, the re-infection was far more serious.