Posted by wreckdiver,

quote:

Not if other states do like my daughter just texted me. "PA is shutting down all alcohol sales"

That has to be political suicide. Do they want the wildings to openly revolt?

New WH guidelines for next 15 days

The new guidelines call called on Americans to avoid social gatherings involving groups of 10 or more.

The guidelines also call for governors in states with evidence of community transmission to close schools in affected and surrounding areas. Bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and other venues where groups of people congregate should also be closed in states with evidence of community transmission, according to the guidelines.

“Each and every one of us has a critical role to play,”

Among the other guidelines:

If someone in your house has testified positive, keep the entire household at home. Do not go to work or school.

If you are an older person, stay home and away from other people

If you are a person with a serious underlying health condition, stay home and away from others.

Avoid discretionary travel shopping trips and social visits.

Avoid eating or drinking in restaurants bars, food courts. Use drive-through, pickup and delivery options.

Do not visit nursing homes or retirement or long-term care facilities unless to provide critical assistance.

Practice good hygiene such as washing your hands, especially after touching frequently used items or surfaces. Avoid touching your face.

Earlier Monday, the White House pushed back on news reports that it is considering imposing curfews and a national quarantine in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic

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Originally posted by esdunbar:
I'm not sure the politicians get this either.

Expressing doubt that they are utterly clueless and are issuing such orders solely in response to pressure to “Do something!” rather than based on a rational examination of the situation is far too kind.

I participated in a statewide exercise a few years ago to plan for a nationwide pandemic and one of the questions I and a couple of others kept raising was what sort of quarantines would/should be enacted. It was clear that none of the elected officials who were involved had given any thought to the issue then and never developed any during the exercise. I’m sure that most officials today, even those who have ever participated in such an exercise, have no better idea of what should be done and what the consequences would be.

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Originally posted by SIG228:

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Originally posted by parabellum:
There's nothing to do now but just wait out this insanity. Bitching about it will do no good. We're all in the same boat. We should all do our best to weather the storm, having little other choice in the matter. Let's boltster our fellow forum members and make the best of this mess.

If there's anything goood to take away from this, it's that every single person in every single industrialized nation, who is responsible for their own survival, has a bit of a different perspective on the integtity of their place in society.
Once all of this is over, sensible people will stock up on food and water if they an afford it.
I was on youtube earlier today and it showed interesting trends in viewing- showing as trending were things like 'how to can pickles', 'how to bake bread' and 'starting a vegetable garden'.

It's a wakeup call for many people. I think that once the feeling of danger has passed and once the markets begin to recover, we will remember the lessons learned and we as individuals and we as a society shall be the better for it.

It's reminiscent of a war- things change during a war and some of them never change back to what they were before the war. Things are learned during a war, poor systems and rules are exposed and changed.

I wish there was a like button.

There is.



Well said Para. The 'debate' has gotten a bit toxic. Remember guys we are here together in the same boat.

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Originally posted by dewhorse:

quote:

Originally posted by rburg:

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I mean seriously, how much toilet paper can one fit in his garage?

To answer that, we'd need to know if its a one, two, or three car garage. And if you moved the cars outside, you could fill them with TP, too.

African or European?

What's your favorite color?

If you can’t find TP, your favorite color is brown...

quote:

Originally posted by stickman428:
Posted by wreckdiver,

quote:

Not if other states do like my daughter just texted me. "PA is shutting down all alcohol sales"

That has to be political suicide. Do they want the wildings to openly revolt?

What, are they rolling back 100 years when the 18th amendment was in force?

I hope everyone can stop and think of what they would do for their own loved ones to save their life. It’s not that a lot of people are going to get sick from this virus. It’s that significant number are going to get extremely sick and need professional care. This is going to take up medical resources that are already needed.

Hospitals are treating people every day. They are not simply on stand by using a small percentage of their capacity. The current fight is to keep that capacity from being drastically exceeded.

It is not just for people infected with the virus that the drastic measures are being taken for, but all critically ill patients to come.

While your kid may not be seriously affected by the virus, if your child gets appendicitis, he is going to need an OR and care facilities to keep the infection from taking his/her life. That may not be available.

If your significant other gets a blood clot or PE, they may have a small window of time to get the care they need. If treated last year, they may fully recover. If demand on care facilities spikes and they are waiting in the ER for a bed due to demand exceeding capacity, they may be dead before one comes available.

If this gets too far out of hand, it will not be simply some that get the virus will die while most will not. It will be people with a variety of critical needs could not get life saving care they need because the resources just were not available or available in time. That is why all the proactive steps are being taken.

The measures taken may not all be effective. No one knows exactly what will come of all of this. It may be more than enough, just enough, or not enough. You try and you learn. In the end, we are all hoping it saves lives.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
There's nothing to do now but just wait out this insanity. Bitching about it will do no good. We're all in the same boat. We should all do our best to weather the storm, having little other choice in the matter. Let's bolster our fellow forum members and make the best of this mess.

Thanks, Para.

San Francisco just went shelter-in-place. All other bay area counties are expected to issue SIP orders as well.

SF Gate

Told the wife about the possibility of shutting down alcohol sales. She's currently setting a new land speed record in her Honda on the way to the beer barn.

Shelter in place and enjoy your DTs.

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Originally posted by ensigmatic:

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Originally posted by maladat:

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Originally posted by Ryanp225:
For fuck sake! What are there, less than 1700 confirmed cases throughout the whole damned country and we are going to destroy 100,000's of small businesses with this silly shit?

The thing (rational) people are worried about isn't number of cases currently in the United States, it's the rate at which the virus can spread.

This is why I asked Doc H what the current thinking was regarding the R0 of SARS-CoV-2. He replied current thinking suggests it's probably around 3.6. If accurate: That's more than twice as infectious as most common seasonal influenzas. Given the other aspects of this virus, that makes for a pretty potent problem that needs to be treated with respect, in my inexpert opinion.

Besides all the other issues, one that's received scant attention is the virus' probability of mutating. The more it replicates, the better the odds of that happening. Should it happen, people already infected with and having gotten over the current strain will likely be susceptible all over again.

I'm not trying to buy trouble or induce FUD. I'm just trying to explain how this thing isn't "just like a cold or the flu."

As far as viral mutations in general and this one in specific. RNA viruses mutate at faster rates than DNA viruses. DNA viruses are sort of "self-correcting" when they duplicate themselves (the only thing really that a virus does). With two strands of nucleotides (double helix anyone?), the virus "compares" the copy with the identical helix strands and "fixes" the copy if necessary to ensure a true copy (over simplified, but practically true - and slower) normal human cells do this, so they don't copy mistakes (many neoplasms or cancers are bad copies of normal cells gone wild). With an RNA virus, it has only one strand to copy, and has no correct copy to "compare" if the new copy is slightly off (a mutation), so produces more "incorrect" copies - thousands of them in one invaded cell. Lots of things cause errors in copying, and are random. Sometimes the "incorrect" copy is more successful at invading and replicating, sometimes less. The less successful copies don't produce as many viruses - can't attach to a cell wall, can't make duplicates, can't keep its structure together; the more successful "incorrect" copies produce more viruses, so can become the predominate "strain."

So far, SARS-CoV-2 (with about 30,000 nucleotides in its strand) has produced (we think) at least three mutations. The first was the unknown mutation that allowed it to cross from an animal reservoir into humans. We could call that "X" (my designation). It immediately mutated into the more recognized, infective strain now known as the "S" strain, the most common strain found today. Sometime between December and January, a new "L" strain appeared, with a higher lethality, but apparently less transmissible, because it's now in the minority. And the above is disputed by some researchers as artifact, because a virus is, well, really small and hard to study, and dicing out their individual parts is, how do you say, challenging). The vast majority of mutations are either lethal to the virus or of no use, the good news. The bad news, there are a lot if them.

That's our current status, and it becomes important in vaccine development and because you obviously want to develop an effective immunity against the right "strain" of virus, the problem with seasonal flu vaccines, since a vaccine effective against one strain might not be (as) effective against another. But we're getting there, and an effective vaccine is really the firewall that we'll depend on finally to stop this bug.

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Originally posted by parabellum:
There's nothing to do now but just wait out this insanity... It's reminiscent of a war...

Amen.

And you are absolutely right to compare this to war. I hadn't thought of it that way, but it is definitely a war. The enemy can't be seen with the naked eye, but it is a real and deadly enemy.



.

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Originally posted by esdunbar:
Below is a comment from the comment section of that article:

"This isn't as complicated as everyone is making it....gas stations, grocery, medical, pharmacy. If a business doesn't fall within any of these categories they should close. Statewide."

This is what most people don't understand. They act like there isn't a whole plethora of companies who support those industries.

......

This is all vertically linked. It's not so simple as saying just those three or four types of businesses stay open. I'm not sure the politicians get this either. All those medical supplies are made by someone and there are a host of companies who those manufacturers rely on to stay in production. It's a long list of companies we can't shut down.

It just exposes that there are a lot of simpletons out there.

Food magically arrives at the supermarket, drugs at the pharmacy, and gas at the gas station.

Just like Amazon, you click to buy and it magically shows up with no effort on the buyers part, but there is a huge chain of production, storage, and shipment to make that all happen.

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Also, my payroll is 7 figures a month. Everyone think they're getting their normal paycheck if we shutdown?

Again, just goes to the simpleton mentality. The "rich" have plenty of money to pay out.

Never mind this was exposed last week when the "Bloomberg could have paid everyone $1 Million dollars with his Presidential campaign money", when in reality even if he cashed out his $60 Billion and gave it away, each of the 325 Million Americans would get a whopping $184.61. Yes, only one hundred and eighty-four dollars and change per person.

Now have them do the math to give everyone $1000 per month. That is 325 BILLION Dollars. $325,000,000,000.00

The ignorance is mind-numbing sometimes. Never more so in a 'panic'.

In a year from now, it will be interesting to look back on this thread from beginning to end.

Well, hello, SIGforum 2021. this is yours truly in 2020, saying that most of this was unnecessary, and that's the saddest part of all.

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Originally posted by Ryanp225:
For fuck sake! What are there, less than 1700 confirmed cases throughout the whole damned country and we are going to destroy 100,000's of small businesses with this silly shit?
Italy will fare better than we will on the long term.

1point3acres is reporting 4552 cases as of 15:02 PDT.

This will go well!

"Pennsylvania closes all state liquor stores indefinitely"

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Originally posted by Anush:
This will go well!

"Pennsylvania closes all state liquor stores indefinitely"

The wife's brother is getting married for the fifth time. We got cajoled into attending. We got some non-refundable hotel reservations. She got a text today that the wedding and reception are cancelled due to the state mandating no gatherings of more than 20 people.