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Originally posted by PowerSurge:

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Originally posted by TXJIM:
Because humans learn from experience, it is probably the most valuable evolutionary adaptation we possess. Just Google "what did we learn from swine flu". You will find pages of returns covering every angle from political, academic and medical perspectives. There are millions of written words in the press and in medical journals covering the subject. The same will happen when this current pandemic has passed and the response to the next one will be different still. It's just human nature....

And all that shit goes out the window when emotions get in the way. Guaranteed. You’re seeing it now.

And you seem to see nothing as you apparently already know everything. One very interesting take on the swine flu pandemic deals with the WHO's role and the psychology around various countries' reactions to their guidance during the swine flu pandemic. Basically, the WHO was not transparent with regard to the uncertainties of swine flu and simply took a stance of recommending the most extreme measures for containment. The result is an interesting study in social psychology. A lot of countries resisted or ignored all together the advice of the WHO as there was no latitude in their directive or open discussion about the unknowns. Many countires second guessed the WHO and took the " fuck you, you can't tell us what to do" stance. Almost half a million people died worldwide, over twelve thousand in the US.

As a result, this time around the WHO has been much more open about what they don't know about the virus and mostly left containment measures to individual countries. They learned from the swine flu pandemic that dictating to sovereign nations caused push back and ultimately cost lives. Being left to figure it out on their own with a better understanding of both the knows and unknowns this time around most countries are taking the more extreme measures on their own.

Interestingly it seems the "fuck you, don't tell me what to do" feelings have simply kicked down one level from the Nation level to the local citizen level I guess it makes sense that a nation that resisted being dictated too before is full of people that don't like being dictated too now.

When the next one comes around it will be interest to see what we learned this time around.

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Originally posted by bald1:

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Originally posted by trapper189:

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Originally posted by bald1:

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Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
The actions we're taking simply are not worth the economic cost. Not even close.

I would submit that such a view would not be welcome by those families that have and will suffer related deaths.

So the entire country has to take one for the team here?

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Originally posted by holdem:
There better be a whole damn bunch of lives saved for a trillion dollars. That number is so large, that even if we save 10,000 lives, that is one hundred million per life.

You guys want to put a price on an individual life? Why not simply advocate death panels and decide that those who are most at risk are not worth any effort to protect or save? Unbelievable!

That is what's going on in Italy now. It's triage. The elderly are being told good luck, while they focus on the most likely to survive. So it's too late for putting a price on a life. If we can't flatten the curve it's possible we are forced to make tough decisions too. That is why they are making these decisions now. Who knows the value of lives saved vs economic loss.

If it's a thousand lives not worth the loss, if it's 100,000, maybe worth the cost, if it's 1,000,000, probably worth the cost. If it's 10,000,000 certainly worth the cost.

As of 2011, the Environmental Protection Agency set the value of a human life at $9.1 million. Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration put it at $7.9 million — and the Department of Transportation figure was around $6 million The Globalist

Bloomberg.com

EPA has been very successful at putting out and defending regulations based on cost-benefit analysis.

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Originally posted by frayedends:

These people are insane. The panic has to stop. I am wondering if they have the authority over business like this. I'm hoping businesses fight back.

But at this point, how do they fight back? And for what, just to open the doors so that no one comes in anyway?

I told my wife tonight, unless it's a bill (mortgage, electric, car payment) or a necessary expense (grocery store, gas), we are to spend no other money. All luxuries, and that includes eating out, are cut out until we see where this thing goes and how bad it gets.

^^prudent.

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Originally posted by Skins2881:
^^prudent.

It is. Tomorrow, the pool guy, lawn guy, and electrician get fired. All jobs I can do myself especially with my newly found freedom. It's a shame, I really like the pool guy and lawn guy, both are hard working and young. They'll be fine. I'm sure they have the resources to wait this out. The electrician hasn't called me back in the last week, so firing him was going to happen anyway. However, I was going to hire someone else, but no need now.

That's just the beginning. My wife's new car has been put on hold. The new cover for the boat is going to wait. New bicycle for myself, nope. Etc. Etc. Etc.

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Originally posted by Pale Horse:
It’s already devastated the live events world. With sporting events, concerts and conventions cancelled the industry is in trouble. Many folks who work in this industry are freelance workers who haven’t had jobs in a month or more already.

Yup. Since the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo got cancelled, I know a friend of a friend who lost 21 gigs playing on a side stage outside. Yeah...he is PISSED and gonna be scrambling to do something for $$$. Thanks again, Over-Hyped Fake News-induced Hysteria...

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Originally posted by parabellum:
Yep. Bonkers.

Four months from now, we'll be patting ourselves on the back for "defeating" the Wuhan Virus, but the truth of the matter will be ignored. Oh, how brave we are, oh, how determined and capable. Fuck yeah.

Stupid panicky cattle

Here's the deal, boss. The Leftists and Fake News have placed themselves in a no-lose situation. If no nation-wide catastrophe occurs, the Leftists will pat themselves on the back and say, "WE DID IT! WE TOLD YOU HOW TO BEAT THIS!!" If there IS a wide-spread pandemic (and no...we're nowhere NEAR that level, despite the panic I see in some peoples' posts here), the Leftist will claim, "SEE...WE TOLD YOU SO!!" Either way, they have positioned themselves on the checkers board such that they can't lose regardless of either outcome.

This is the perfect storm scenario the Fake News and Leftists were HOPING they could create to crash the economy (Bill Maher, anyone??) and hold President Trump responsible. Carry on.

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Originally posted by oddball:
Why just Covid 19? Why not go through what we're enduring right now, every single flu season? Lock our selves in our homes, not attend any public events, start rationing supplies, etc. etc. Because influenza kills HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of humans every season. And Covid 19 will not be the last super pathogen, not by a long shot.

The virus thing is normal. This goddamn panic isn't.

This right here!! AMEN Oddball!!!

Swine Flu 2009-2010:
- 57,000,000 Infected...that is 57 MILLION
- 257,000 Hospitalized
- 11,690 Deaths
** Where was the panic then?!?!?

"Normal" Influenza, 2017-2018
- 45,000,000 est. Infected
- 810,000 Hospitalized
- 61,000 Deaths
** Where was the panic then?!?!?

Oh Haaarrrroooooollld...see what I'm getting at??

Wait...I've lost track. Which am I supposed to be most upset about, possibly dying or going broke or both?

We are now discussing putting a monetary value on human life. That boat sailed long ago. When you hand out enormous sums for pain and suffering, lost wages, and etc., people are in for a great shock when they find out the value of human life is often nil. People are fungible.

We like to keep looking at how South Korea has been handling this situation. Though I don't recall what the figure is, they effectively put a worth on human life through tort reform and the net value of human life is quite low compared to the United States. My understanding is that liability insurance is cheap by our standards.

As I understand it, no one is trying to stop the virus by shutting down gathering places. They are trying to slow its roll so our CIVILIAN triage methods will work. GOD FORBID this thing burns fast and we find ourselves having to go to MILITARY triage methods. If that happens a lot of us may find ourselves on a stretcher under a shady tree. What's that worth?

Panic is panic gentlemen. Whether it is about a virus or a bank account.

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Originally posted by thunderson:


As I understand it, no one is trying to stop the virus by shutting down gathering places. They are trying to slow its roll so our CIVILIAN triage methods will work. GOD FORBID this thing burns fast and we find ourselves having to go to MILITARY triage methods. If that happens a lot of us may find ourselves on a stretcher under a shady tree. What's that worth?

Panic is panic gentlemen. Whether it is about a virus or a bank account.

I don't buy any of it. Hey, close everything but everyone go to the grocery. They can't stop it, they can't slow it. They can destroy people's lives. I don't know how the ban affects private daycare centers yet, but if they force those closed then my ex-wife will lose everything in a month. She'll lose the house, the business, everything. They are always just scraping by. I guess on a good note maybe my kids will come live with me.

went to Publix tonight here in Tampa

just buying the routine stuff

first -- everyone was courteous. no displays of aggressive behavior but it was busy. not crazy packed - but busier than I'd guess a typical Sunday evening would be

they were out of some stuff

no eggs
of course no TP / wipes, etc
pretty much no pasta
limited selection of chicken
rice looked pretty well cleaned out along with lots of the canned goods
no potatoes which bummed me out because we were going to make mashed potatoes

but we were able to get most everything we needed with a few brand substitutions. no panicking but the kids are out for spring break so we needed more stuff anyway.

interesting to see what brands sell out when the others don't

Heinz ketchup? gone Hunt's ketchup? available

interesting times -- I've heard of mayhem other places

-----------------------------------------------

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Originally posted by oddball:

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Originally posted by pedropcola:
We could save untold lives by outlawing tobacco, alcohol, inhibiting texting or cell phone use in cars, lowering the speed limit, etc. We could do this all day.

Why just Covid 19? Why not go through what we're enduring right now, every single flu season? Lock our selves in our homes, not attend any public events, start rationing supplies, etc. etc. Because influenza kills HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of humans every season. And Covid 19 will not be the last super pathogen, not by a long shot.

The virus thing is normal. This goddamn panic isn't.

We have Dr Anthony Fauci telling us this Covid19 is different this time and things are going to get worse, practice social distancing etc. On the other hand Devon Nunes is telling folks do your pub crawl. So who are you going to listen to?

CDC put out a recommendation tonight that individuals and organizations should postpone all gatherings of 50 or more people for 8 weeks. Gatherings of any size should be reconsidered unless organizers can protect vulnerable people, ensure proper hand hygiene and social distancing. The guidance doesn’t apply to schools, universities or businesses.

"Large events and mass gatherings can contribute to the spread of COVID-19 in the United States via travelers who attend these events and introduce the virus to new communities. Examples of large events and mass gatherings include conferences, festivals, parades, concerts, sporting events, weddings, and other types of assemblies. These events can be planned not only by organizations and communities but also by individuals.

Therefore, CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.

Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populations, hand hygiene, and social distancing. When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual.

This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses. This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus. This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials."


Link

I don't know what's worse - the virus or the response. They are literally strangling the economy - trillions of dollars up in smoke and millions of lives ruined.

Just got back from dinner with my wife and daughter. Normally 45 minute wait for a table. Place was empty.

Word is Cuomo is going to pull the plug on restaurants tonight. The guy hates to be one upped so it will probably be more stringent.

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Originally posted by holdem:

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Originally posted by Doc H.:

Because we're looking at the H1N1 pandemic in the rear view mirror. We know (approximately) how many people died. And isolation/quarantine measures would have helped reduce deaths - we just traded deaths for economy, globally. We didn't know it, and certainly didn't intend it, but that was the result. Less panic, fewer containment measures, more deaths, less economic impact. We can look at that now in the retrospectoscope.

I know elected leaders cannot ask this question in public, but I hope they are asking it behind closed doors; What is the total economic impact of the measures we are taking and how many lives will it save, i.e., what is the cost per life?

At this point I think it is safe to say the total economic impact in the US will exceed a trillion dollars. There better be a whole damn bunch of lives saved for a trillion dollars. That number is so large, that even if we save 10,000 lives, that is one hundred million per life.

I hope the cost isn’t that high but I tend to agree that we have to be at least somewhat logical with our compassion, and consider economic cost and how those costs trickle down and effect quality and span of life.

I’d be much more inclined to waive FDA approvals for experimental medication and let people take their chances as long as they agree that they MUST hold the doctors and drug companies harmless from any complications. I think that might actually be a better compromise of compassion and economic sense.

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Originally posted by frayedends:
There is not stopping this virus. It has to run it's course and no amount of panicking and closing shit is going to stop it. It's absolutely insane. I'm sick to my stomach over this. Bartenders, bar owners, bar entertainers, waiters, waitresses, etc. They all just won't get paid. My fiancé is a realtor and I'm quite sure this will kill the spring market too. We could be screwed too.

These people are insane. The panic has to stop. I am wondering if they have the authority over business like this. I'm hoping businesses fight back.

There are innumerable advantages to doing what's necessary to delay a widespread breakout as long as possible. It will hurt many economically, but it may save many thousands of lives as well.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: jigray3,

St Louis area schools are closing.

Link

May be in the minority here, but I’m ok with this. I have 2 asthmatic kids and an asthmatic, teacher wife. Three of our five family members are at higher risk. Plus, our district was coming back from spring break tomorrow. Tons of families traveled, many to areas whose numbers have started to increase.

quote:

This recommendation does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses. This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus. This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials."

So the panic by our governor is not even what the CDC recommends.

Time for another intermission to lighten the mood




Link to original video: https://youtu.be/jOf1FLxpAGM




Link to original video: https://youtu.be/8kOf8MaaoB4

Thanks, bald. Appreciated.

For even more entertainment, I believe the dem debate is now on.

quote:

Originally posted by frayedends:

I don't buy any of it. Hey, close everything but everyone go to the grocery. They can't stop it, they can't slow it. They can destroy people's lives. I don't know how the ban affects private daycare centers yet, but if they force those closed then my ex-wife will lose everything in a month. She'll lose the house, the business, everything. They are always just scraping by. I guess on a good note maybe my kids will come live with me.

It's not rocket science. We know how it spreads. If you avoid public places and contact your chances of contracting it lessen. Over time odds are you'll get it anyway but you'll get it a whole lot faster if you go to large gatherings of people several times a week. Schools and daycares, as well as hospitals are petri dishes. People with strong immune systems, like children, can an do bring illness to those with compromised immune systems all the time.

I understand completely about daycares. My wife and I ran a private daycare for 20 years. When the recession hit we lost 50 percent of our clients in one month because they lost their jobs. September of 2009. We went from working 8-10 hour days to 12 hour days 5 days a week with a 60% pay cut. Obamacare fucked us royally after that. We didn't start to see any light or even normal working hours until 2016. I learned other skills and supplemented. Believe me, I get it. It sucks and I realize this means nothing but I am sorry for your ex-wife's situation. Even if they don't close them, she'll likely take a hit because her clients will be impacted regardless.

As far as Civilian vs Military triage goes, Italy hasn't even gone to military triage yet and they're already turning folks away and not letting folks out of the house.