quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Either way: I wonder if this is a sign the infection rate is beginning to slow here in the U.S.: Covid-19 in US and Canada. Look at the bottom curve on the top chart.

Hopefully so, but it's too soon to be sure - today's data is incomplete, and one day (yesterday's data) is too little to predict a trend. If you switch to a log plot so that the cases from more than a week ago aren't just a line along the bottom of the chart, you'll see there have been squiggles before.

This isn't a WWII type situation. Economically, it's pretty much the exact opposite.

In WWII, the economy was running at absolute full capacity, and furiously expanding that capacity. There was full employment, even beyond what we'd now consider full employment. Money was flowing at a furious rate, and the government needed to recapture some of that through taxes to keep everything going. I wouldn't be surprised if a fair amount of monitization was happening also. Not to mention that the government took on a huge (for that time) amount of debt.

What we have now is the economy essentially being put to sleep in the name of stopping the epidemic. Whether this will be effective is for another post (color me skeptical.) But from an economic standpoint, the government has created a huge economic contraction, causing both unemployment for workers and a cash flow problems for businesses. The effect of this is very deflationary. Note that gold, which is what everyone runs to in time of crisis, is down.

This means two things. First, if the government is suppressing economic activity, and creating a cash flow problem for essentially everyone, it needs to make that up to keep everyone going in the short term. Two, with the deflationary implosion, it can dump cash into the economy, and it won't cause inflation.

So, yeah, in this situation, if Friedman isn't wrong, he's not applicable in a hugely exigent situation.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
To fight WWII taxes were raised and citizens lent money to the government in the form of War Bonds.
How times have changed...

"10% Of GDP": US Coronavirus Stimulus Package To Total $2 Trillion

First it was $850 billion. Then $1 trillion. Then $1.2 trillion. Then $1.3 trillion and the market still didn't care, even as Round 3 of the proposed fiscal stimulus package grew faster than the number or coronavirus cases.

So in the Trump admin's scramble to impress investors, on Saturday morning Trump's top economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that the latest and greatest financial package being assembled to offset the crippling economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic which according to Goldman will wipe out 24% of GDP in Q2 would total more than $2 trillion.

“The package is coming in at about 10% of GDP,” Larry Kudlow told reporters as he headed into a meeting with Republican senators. He said that would work out to a bit more than $2 trillion. “We’re just trying to cover the right bases,” he added.

https://www.zerohedge.com/mark...age-total-2-trillion

The phrase "helicopter money" was first coined by Milton Friedman in 1969, when he wrote a parable of dropping money from a helicopter to illustrate the effects of monetary expansion.

Am I the only one who agrees with Milton Friedman that this is a bad idea?

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by ensigmatic:
Either way: I wonder if this is a sign the infection rate is beginning to slow here in the U.S.: Covid-19 in US and Canada. Look at the bottom curve on the top chart.

Hopefully so, but it's too soon to be sure - today's data is incomplete, and one day (yesterday's data) is too little to predict a trend. If you switch to a log plot so that the cases from more than a week ago aren't just a line along the bottom of the chart, you'll see there have been squiggles before.

I find the sites case trajectories a little concerning.

This was posted on Facebook on Thursday by a British singer/songwriter I follow by the name of Francis Dunnery. I agree with about 90% of what he is saying here, what do you all think?

He’s spot-on about the media fanning the flames of panic:

quote:

Francis Dunnery

THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE
Oh man. You have to laugh. I’m watching the news. I’m sorry. It’s completely fuckin ridiculous at this point. There are breaking news headlines appearing that are nothing short of criminal. The people behind these headlines are trying to terrify the populace to keep them watching and the politicians are lapping up their prime TV time that makes them more famous.

I looked outside the window this morning and it was beautiful out there. The trees are getting ready for the next cycle, the birds are nesting, the deer are eating grass again after the snow. There are flies and moths and spiders all getting about their business. All doing what nature or god intended them to do. All except humans.

There are only 9000 people dead in the WHOLE OF THE WORLD and the vast majority of them were incredibly sick to begin with. I think it’s true to say that one of the guaranteed aspects of life is that we die. All of us eventually die. It’s natural. It’s Normal. And we fear the virus because we know this. Yet more people died of cancer, heart disease, hepatitis b, obesity, suicide, traffic accidents, flu, tuberculosis and just about any other fatal illnesses out there than the corona virus. That’s a fact. Where’s the panic about that? Why the panic? What about the other more deadly illnesses? Are they irrelevant? And why? This is why you have to be careful what you take in from media outlets who are making millions of dollars in advertising revenue from your fear.

The waves of terror headlines are relentless. VIRUS AT THE PEAK OF DEADLY CURVE. HOSPITALS BRACE FOR DEADLY VIRUS ONSLAUGHT. Notice it says ‘brace’ because it’s not an actual onslaught.
MEDICAL STAFF PANIC OVER POSSIBLE FACILITY SHORTAGE. Notice it says ‘possible’ facility shortage.
GETTING VENTILATORS MAY BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. Notice it says may be.

The human ego is locked in a fear pandemic drama. The ego (made up world) needs fear and drama to keep itself alive. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy. Meanwhile outside in nature nothing much is going on. The whole natural world doesn’t even know it’s happening.
MARCH 19 2020 FACT:
Apart from a tiny percentage of the elderly world populace and a few outliers no one has died of the virus. The world is not your enemy. Nature is not your enemy. The world is a beautiful place to be and YOU are a apart of it.

I’ve had all the panic mongers trying to shame me each time I put up a message that states facts and not fear projections. ‘Your a idiot, you are a bad person, you are an uncaring horrible man, I’m blocking you, your an asshole, you want people to die’. But I never rely on what people say in fear. Their minds are warped. I don’t want to see anyone die. I’m not against anyone. I’m trying to bring some facts into the massive fear pandemic.

MARCH 19 2020 COMMON SENSE:
Keep away from the elderly and anyone who is really sick (only 15% of the really sick elderly die) and keep away from the hospitals unless you are in serious trouble. If you do get the virus it is a mild cold or flu. You don’t need hospital. This way people who really need the care can get it.

It’s true I’m not a medical expert. I’m not anything. But I can sense what’s going. I don’t trust the information on the TV. There’s too much money being made. The corona virus is a mild cold or flu that will pass very quickly. You are safe. You are not going to die. And to all those people who think we are going to die, go and wipe your arse, you have enough toilet roll to facilitate Anfield football stadium when Liverpool get their title in a few weeks Ha ha

Link

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
Hopefully so, but it's too soon to be sure - ...

Nonetheless, I'm gonna go with "cautiously optimistic"

quote:

Originally posted by PASig:

quote:

Francis Dunnery

THE ZOMBIE APOCALYPSE
Oh man. You have to laugh. I’m watching the news. I’m sorry. It’s completely fuckin ridiculous at this point. There are breaking news headlines appearing that are nothing short of criminal.

I'm not laughing. What they're doing should be criminal. Except, at least here in the U.S., there's the 1st Amendment, which, unfortunately, allows these bobbleheads to behave criminally and get away with it. (No, I'm not suggesting that should be abrogated or changed.)

And people are panicking. All one need do is witness what's going on in the stores to see that. We have the dominant media to thank for much, if not most, of that reaction.

If a man raises questions about the insanity and financially ruinous effects of Coronovirus hysteria, and gets lectured by women who have no medical training or experience about "flattening the curve, social distancing" and other things that they never heard of until two weeks ago, but are now experts on, are they...

...Womansplaining?

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
If a man raises questions about the insanity and financially ruinous effects of Coronovirus hysteria, and gets lectured by women who have no medical training or experience about "flattening the curve, social distancing" and other things that they never heard of until two weeks ago, but are now experts on, are they...

...Womansplaining?

Just make them pay their own way from now on.

quote:

This means two things. First, if the government is suppressing economic activity, and creating a cash flow problem for essentially everyone, it needs to make that up to keep everyone going in the short term. Two, with the deflationary implosion, it can dump cash into the economy, and it won't cause inflation.

BBMW-
That's the theory... and you argue it well.

However, what is inflation?
Inflation is commonly described as “too much money chasing too few goods”. More accurately, it should be described as involving “too much money spent chasing too few goods,” which still remains to be seen.

Doesn't this huge economic contraction you describe mean the economy is not producing as many goods and services? And if we simply inflate the money supply, everyone has money (maybe even more) to chase the same (or fewer) goods and services?

If we create $2 trillion out of thin air it has to go somewhere, and it will have an effect. Who will benefit and who will be harmed in the long run remains to be seen.

Went to Wegmans today for produce.

It was crowded which is normal for a Saturday. Normally it’s like a roller derby with full contact and elbows flying.

Today was, however, remarkable...a geometric dance.

Complete silence as everyone moved while keeping their distance. If two people came close, one would veer off. It was very odd to watch. Only one person I saw with a mask...another had on gloves.

There were three associates in produce alone wiping constantly. Bag stations and surfaces.

Another associate wiped our self check out down before and after use...very nice.

They asked everyone entering to use the hand sanitizer station.

It was refreshing not to be in the roller derby of rudeness despite the bigger picture going on.

Given that this is a hugely deflationary event (how much asset value has been wiped out, how much income generation has stopped, etc.), I think in the near term, inflation will be a non-issue. People will use it to buy what they need, companies will use it to cover there dept and operating expenses, any extra will likely go under mattresses (both physical an virtual.) We saw this after 2008.

When they decide to turn the economy back on, they'll have to have a firm hand on the money throttle to give enough to defibrillate the economy but not enough to overstimulate it.

And, yes, ol' Milt is turning over in his grave over all of this.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

This means two things. First, if the government is suppressing economic activity, and creating a cash flow problem for essentially everyone, it needs to make that up to keep everyone going in the short term. Two, with the deflationary implosion, it can dump cash into the economy, and it won't cause inflation.

BBMW-
That's the theory... and you argue it well.

However, what is inflation?
Inflation is commonly described as “too much money chasing too few goods”. More accurately, it should be described as involving “too much money spent chasing too few goods,” which still remains to be seen.

Doesn't this huge economic contraction you describe mean the economy is not producing as many goods and services? And if we simply inflate the money supply, everyone has money (maybe even more) to chase the same (or fewer) goods and services?

If we create $2 trillion out of thin air it has to go somewhere, and it will have an effect. Who will benefit and who will be harmed in the long run remains to be seen.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BBMW,

Another Powerline blog worth the time to read.


https://www.powerlineblog.com/...uhan-coronavirus.php

A DATA-DRIVEN LOOK AT THE WUHAN CORONAVIRUS
Aaron Ginn is a Silicon Valley technologist who has written for Breitbart, TechCrunch, TheNextWeb, and Townhall. Ginn has published a piece at Medium about the Wuhan coronavirus. It’s called “Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19.”

Ginn is not a scientist or a doctor, but he seems like a capable numbers cruncher and analyst. Moreover, he marshals views of medical and health professionals.

I think his piece is worthy of your consideration. However, as with just about everything written on this subject, it should not be considered definitive. At this point, some level of skepticism is almost always in order.

The table of contents of Ginn’s lengthy piece provides an idea of his views:

1. Total cases are the wrong metric
2. Time lapsing new cases gives us perspective
3. On a per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking
4. COVID-19 is spreading
5. Watch the Bell Curve
6. A low probability of catching COVID-19
7. Common transmission modes
8. COVID-19 is likely to burn off in the summer
9. Children and Teens aren’t at risk
10.Strong, but unknown viral effect
11.What about asymptomatic spread?
12.93% of people who think they are positive aren’t
13.1% of cases will be severe
14.Declining fatality rate
15.So what should we do?
16.Start with basic hygiene
17.More data
18.Open schools
19.Open up public spaces
20.Support business and productivity
21.People fear what the government will do, not infection
22.Expand medical capacity
23.Don’t let them forget it and vote

Here are a few important passages:

As to contagiousness:

The World Health Organization (“WHO”) released a study on how China responded to COVID-19. Currently, this study is one of the most exhaustive pieces published on how the virus spreads.

The results of their research show that COVID-19 doesn’t spread as easily as we first thought or the media had us believe (remember people abandoned their dogs out of fear of getting infected). According to their report if you come in contact with someone who tests positive for COVID-19 you have a 1–5% chance of catching it as well. The variability is large because the infection is based on the type of contact and how long.

The majority of viral infections come from prolonged exposures in confined spaces with other infected individuals. Person-to-person and surface contact is by far the most common cause. From the WHO report, “When a cluster of several infected people occurred in China, it was most often (78–85%) caused by an infection within the family by droplets and other carriers of infection in close contact with an infected person. . . .

Dr. Paul Auwaerter, the Clinical Director for the Division of Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine [finds]:

If you have a COVID-19 patient in your household, your risk of developing the infection is about 10%….If you were casually exposed to the virus in the workplace (e.g., you were not locked up in conference room for six hours with someone who was infected [like a hospital]), your chance of infection is about 0.5%

According to Dr. Auwaerter, these transmission rates are very similar to the seasonal flu.

As to asymptomatic spread:

The majority of cases see symptoms within a few days, not two weeks as originally believed.

On true asymptomatic spread, the data is still unclear but increasingly unlikely. Two studies point to a low infection rate from pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. One study said 10% of infections come from people who don’t show symptoms, yet. Another WHO study reported 1.2% of confirmed cases were truly asymptomatic. Several studies confirming asymptotic spread have ended up disproven.

It is important to note there is a difference between “never showing symptoms” and “pre-symptomatic” and the media is promoting an unproven narrative. Almost all people end up in the latter camp within five days, almost never the former. It is very unlikely for individuals with COVID-19 to never show symptoms. WHO and CDC claim that asymptomatic spread isn’t a concern and quite rare.

As to fatality rates:

As the US continues to expand testing, the case fatality rate will decline over the next few weeks. There is little doubt that serious and fatal cases of COVID-19 are being properly recorded. What is unclear is the total size of mild cases.

WHO originally estimated a case fatality rate of 4% at the beginning of the outbreak but revised estimates downward 2.3% — 3% for all age groups. CDC estimates 0.5% — 3%, however stresses that closer to 1% is more probable. Dr. Paul Auwaerter estimated 0.5% — 2%, leaning towards the lower end.

A paper released on March 19th analyzed a wider data set from China and lowered the fatality rate to 1.4%. This won’t be clear for the US until we see the broader population that is positive but with mild cases. With little doubt, the fatality rate and severity rate will decline as more people are tested and more mild cases are counted.

Higher fatality rates in China, Iran, and Italy are more likely associated with a sudden shock to the healthcare system unable to address demands and doesn’t accurately reflect viral fatality rates. . . .

Looking at the US fatality, the fatality rate is drastically declining as the number of cases increases, halving every four or five days. The fatality rate will eventually level off and plateau as the US case-mix becomes apparent.

This is just a sample of the content. The whole thing is worth considering.

JOE adds: It was a pleasure to help my friend Aaron put this piece together. Aaron is a smart guy and his analysis of the actual numbers is, in my view, correct. This period has been a fascinating view into how people think

A pretty dire picture coming out of NY. Any members from up there have any insight?

Link

One projection this morning estimated that all beds in New York City hospitals will be occupied by this coming Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal says the situation is already dire, with New York doctors noticing the same thing as the Italian doctors in the Sky News clip: People sick with COVID-19 go downhill fast.

“We’re getting pounded,” said Mangala Narasimhan, a doctor at the Long Island Jewish Medical Center, part of Northwell Health, the largest hospital system in New York. “I’ve been in ICU care for 15 years, and this is the worst I have ever seen things.”…

With the onslaught has come a surprise for many health-care workers: Far more young people than they expected are falling very ill. According to data published Friday morning by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, 56% of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the city at the time involved patients under the age of 50…

The swiftness in which patients turn from mildly sick to struggling to breathe and requiring a ventilator is shocking, health-care workers said. “Things have gotten really bad this past week,” one Manhattan nurse said. “We’re all on edge.”

It would be a small mercy if the age disparity in death rates also extended to hospitalizations, with few younger adults needing ER care so that gurneys were open for the elderly. That’s not what they’re seeing in NYC, though. It may be that the percentage of under-50s who need emergency care is small relative to the percentage that’s infected, but the raw number isn’t. And that wouldn’t be great news even if it were true, as it would mean a lot of under-50s who don’t need the ER to recover are out there passing the virus around.

Anyway, now we know why Cuomo finally gave that shelter-in-place order. The only way to slow the stream of patients right now is to strangle all activity in New York. NYC is giving its economy high doses of radiation in hopes of sending its COVID-19 cancer into remission.

The Journal’s story also flagged a major shortage of protective equipment in New York, with some doctors forced to reuse masks and gowns. The most urgent shortage is the shortage of masks since they’re the most basic form of protection for medical personnel. And we don’t want medical personnel to be without protection right now:

How will that shortage be eased? One near-term way to do it is start buying back masks from dentists and veterinarians and redeploying them to hospitals. Another is to have the FDA ease off on inspection protocols: According to Tom Rogan, there are pallets of medical supplies — including masks — sitting in warehouses right now that can’t go out because an FDA inspector hasn’t approved them yet. The bill Trump signed on Wednesday will also help by allowing manufacturers to sell masks directly to health-care workers without fear of legal liability. And then there’s the “wartime mobilization” factor, with 3M announcing today that it’s doubled its mask production to roughly 100 million per month.

There are masks in Chinese factories too, of course. But they’re hoarding those masks for themselves:

China made half the world’s masks before the coronavirus emerged there, and it has expanded production nearly 12-fold since then. But it has claimed mask factory output for itself. Purchases and donations also brought China a big chunk of the world’s supply from elsewhere.

Now, worries about mask supplies are rising. As the virus’s global spread escalates, governments around the world are restricting exports of protective gear, which experts say could worsen the pandemic…

Other manufacturers say the Chinese government is still claiming all the masks that their factories in the country make. “Mask exports are still not authorized, but we are following the situation every day,” said Guillaume Laverdure, chief operating officer of Medicom, a Canadian manufacturer that makes three million masks a day at its Shanghai factory.

It’s curious that the ChiComs are still clinging to protective equipment at a moment when they’re crowing about having zero native infections of coronavirus. Either they’re lying about having contained the disease and want the masks for a second wave or they’re deliberately withholding masks in order to worsen the crisis in the west, a little “bonus” for the world after the Chinese government’s incompetence and secrecy gifted it a pandemic to begin with. Could be both, of course — they’re lying about having the epidemic under control and they want to make things as painful as possible for the U.S. and Europe.

I don’t mean to suggest by focusing on the shortage in NYC that this isn’t a problem everywhere. It is. New York is the site of the biggest outbreak right now but the Times reported last night that a clinic in St. Paul, Minnesota is considering closing down entirely because they lack protective gear for their staff. One doctor in California compared the lack of gear to fighting a war without ammo. Some doctors are reusing the same mask over and over with intermittent treatments of Lysol in hopes that that’ll keep them protected. Meanwhile, the feds’ order for 500 million N95 masks imagines incremental delivery over a span of … 18 months, which is right around the time we should be getting past this crisis anyway thanks to a vaccine.

It’s all too little and much too late. Good luck to heroic MDs and RNs everywhere, not just in treating the sick but in trying not to die themselves. And to pharmacists too: They also need masks to produce sterile medications for vulnerable groups like senior citizens. Not gonna have a ready supply for awhile.

Update: It’s already bad. I can’t imagine what it’ll be like on Monday.

In the Bronx, doctors at Lincoln Medical and Mental Health Center say they have only a few remaining ventilators for patients who need them to breathe. In Brooklyn, doctors at Kings County Hospital Center say they are so low on supplies that they are reusing masks for up to a week, slathering them with hand sanitizer between shifts…

As it prepares for the worst-case projections, the state is asking retired health care workers to volunteer to help. The city is considering trying to turn the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan into a makeshift hospital.

“The most striking part is the speed with which it has ramped up,” said Ben McVane, an emergency room doctor at Elmhurst Hospital Center in Queens. “It went from a small trickle of patients to a deluge of patients in our departments.”

State officials think the peak won’t come until … early May.

quote:

Originally posted by Lefty Sig:
If a man raises questions about the insanity and financially ruinous effects of Coronovirus hysteria, and gets lectured by women who have no medical training or experience about "flattening the curve, social distancing" and other things that they never heard of until two weeks ago, but are now experts on, are they...

...Womansplaining?

No they are Hag-Nagging and women have been experts at that for millions of years. Chimp-man first first came down from the trees to escape chimp-woman who wouldn't stop nagging him.

This illustrates again why I don't believe anything China says. The article says they are proudly proclaiming that cases have leveled off, but they're keeping all the masks they can produce for themselves.

I heard on Fox News that they are threatening to withhold all pharmaceuticals from us because we say the virus came from there.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
This illustrates again why I don't believe anything China says.

Nor WHO, either.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
The article says they are proudly proclaiming that cases have leveled off, but they're keeping all the masks they can produce for themselves.

Which sounds a lot like their early proclamations wrt to the virus when it first started gaining steam.

quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
I heard on Fox News that they are threatening to withhold all pharmaceuticals from us because we say the virus came from there.

They're not fond of the truth when it could be interpreted as reflecting badly on them. Problem for them is, while their suppression efforts may work in their country, they don't work so well in the rest of the world.

Quite the opposite, in fact. Somebody ought to introduce their leadership to the concept of the Streisand Effect.

ChicagoSigMan,

I'm in upstate NY, about 220 miles Northwest of NYC. We have two confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the county we live in.
Schools and most business is closed.
Got the step-daughter all hooked up for remote learning, she's a day ahead on all her lessons.

We don't go out, and have several months of supplies/food on hand. No issues with ammo either, as we are stocked up at all times.

I'm retired, so no issues with work.

I did get the SIG P220ST out of the safe just in case it was needed.

We're just waiting it out, but somewhat impatiently.

I did get an email from my gun club, they cancelled the monthly meeting and said come on over and use the outdoor range, while practicing social distancing.

I guess if I get really bored I may go to the range.

Surprise!

China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim

Yahoo News is about on par with CNN, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this was true. It would fit perfectly.

Yeah, I trust yahoo news about as much as I do Communist China. Perhaps if they actually cited a source, but of course they didn't.

I believe nothing from the commies or 95% of the MSM. One in the same really.