quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

< snip >

Since when do decision-making politicians rely on empirical evidence to make decisions?

I may be more jaded than most on this point, but I have seen a dozen or more cases where real data was disregarded in favor of the politically convenient answer. I've also seen one case where the analysts were forbidden to collect new data of any kind, instead being forced to rely on values taken from a spreadsheet that were inconsistent and utterly devoid of any reference to a verifiable source.

For example, prohibiting gatherings of more than 10, 50 or 250 people. What mathematical analysis supports such magically round numbers in the answer? The answer is none. Those numbers were chosen by people guessing. For all we know, going from 50 to 53 people may change the number of cases of transmission by a multiplier far larger than expected. And allowing a gathering of 250 people might spell the doom for say, Boston.

While the data being shown is cool and lets people make all kinds of nifty charts and graphs, most is not needed to make the macro-level decisions (e.g., disease started in China - no more Chinese enter the US) currently being made.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:
Maladat,

Correct but where does one arbitrarily start such an analysis? Is 100 infected sufficient? 1000? What about the causative factors, how much influence do they have? What about total population differences or population density metrics?

I appreciate your contributions.

There absolutely are huge questions about how accurate the data we have about total cases is, both in the USA and around the world.

We just have strong statistical reasons to believe that the data is even worse when the numbers are very small.

It's ultimately a question of doing the best we can with the data we have.

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
I like graphs, especially the ones in color. Let's think about those pretty graphs for a second. They are proporting to show a trend in the number of people infected. That seems simple. How do we find out which people are infected? Well, we test people. Still simple. What happens if we test more people? We'll find more infected people. Simple again.

What happens if we test people faster than the Italians did because we had more time to ramp up our testing capacity than they did?

Lies, damn Lies, and then there's statistics.

If your argument is that we're doing a better job with testing, you might want to reexamine that idea.

As of a few days ago, Italy had performed 148,657 tests and the US had performed 41,552. ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing )

With more than five times the population, we had performed fewer than 1/3 as many tests.

Really... At this point, I can no longer read this thread with the constant negativity, bickering, egos, etc.

I come to this thread for information and the data that can be confirmed with a high level of QA/QC.

At this point, I wonder if some of you wouldn't rather get the virus and succumb to it to prove your were right/wrong. At least the bickering would stop if that were to happen.

Jesus guys, we are all on the same damn team.

Again... With respect.

When this shit hits 60,000,000 cases (that's 60 MILLION) here in the United States, maybe...MAYBE...I'll start listening and paying attention. Until that time, this is just a pimple on a gnat's ass. In no way am I discounting or demeaning ANYONE who has been or has family members stricken with this, but again...PERSPECTIVE, PEOPLE!!

Carry on with the hysteria...

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
I like graphs, especially the ones in color. Let's think about those pretty graphs for a second. They are proporting to show a trend in the number of people infected. That seems simple. How do we find out which people are infected? Well, we test people. Still simple. What happens if we test more people? We'll find more infected people. Simple again.

What happens if we test people faster than the Italians did because we had more time to ramp up our testing capacity than they did?

Lies, damn Lies, and then there's statistics.

If your argument is that we're doing a better job with testing, you might want to reexamine that idea.

As of the day before yesterday, Italy had performed 148,657 tests and the US had performed 41,552. ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing )

With more than five times the population, we had performed fewer than 1/3 as many tests.

Testing comparisons may be flawed b/c Europe is also using and has used different diagnostics than what the FDA has approved for use. Europe’s tests appear to have higher selectivity and specificity issues. Performing a higher number of potentially misleading tests can make things worse, as discussed earlier in this thread.

Good for the man, and I agree with him.

Police show up at Louisiana church that was defying coronavirus state order

quote:

Tony Spell, pastor of Life Tabernacle Church in Baton Rouge, said no "dictator law" could keep people from worshipping God, according to the local news.

“The virus, we believe, is politically motivated,” Spell told WAFB. “We hold our religious rights dear and we are going to assemble no matter what someone says.

FWIW, this guy, who isn't a medical/biology professional but has studied pandemics for 20 years, including providing insights into the spread of HIV/AIDS, says the doom-and-gloom models are not taking into account the changes in behavior we are now making.




Link to original video: https://youtu.be/bCnT2owc1Z8

I haven’t seen any reports out of Russia regarding COVID-19. Has anyone else?

quote:

Originally posted by bozman:
Really... At this point, I can no longer read this thread with the constant negativity, bickering, egos, etc.

I come to this thread for information and the data that can be confirmed with a high level of QA/QC.

At this point, I wonder if some of you wouldn't rather get the virus and succumb to it to prove your were right/wrong. At least the bickering would stop if that were to happen.

Jesus guys, we are all on the same damn team.

Again... With respect.

I agree with the above. I have just added 4 members to my IGNORE LIST (timeout corner) due to all of the back-n-forth among them with their constant re-twitting of the previous postings.

Thanks 2bob....

I had forgotten about the ignore feature. I will use that so I can continue to get some information from this thread.

Regards,

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

A calm, rational discussion of data and statistics is not hysteria, but by all means, continue using personal attacks to dismiss viewpoints you don't agree with rather than actually trying to justify your own.

The question though is whether or not we are as a country or even the world making rational decisions based on that data or lack thereof.

A snippet from the article by Professor Ioannidis:

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

I like this analogy, but I've made no secret of the fact that I fall into this belief. That makes not much of a difference now however, as we are fully hopscotching towards that cliff and as far as I can tell determined to jump.

If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.

Like said cat, I'm at least maintaining my confidence that we land on our feet.

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:

quote:

Originally posted by RHINOWSO:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:
Same curve, 10-11 days behind.

If we have the same number of cases as Italy, that's a win, considering we are 5.5 times larger.

Totally irrelevant. When the number of cases is small, the growth in number of cases depends on the number of cases, it doesn't have anything to do with the total population.

The graph I posted shows growth in cases from the day each country reached 100 confirmed cases. It shows the exponential growth of cases in Italy and the US is essentially the same, COVID-19 just got loose in Italy a little earlier.

Unfortunately the numbers are difficult to compare b/c of exponential growth. Go back to 2/21 and there is only a 7 patient difference between the countries. Yet look at the difference between the infected population now between the U.S. and Italy. Do you concur? Also, under what circumstances did the infection spread? The latter is the biggest issue that goes into such an analysis and use of stats is flawed if one doesn't understand the actual drivers to the data.

February's data is useless as far as gauging the virus is concerned in Italy and U.S. due to the lack of testing and test kits. Keep in mind, to the majority of Americans (under 60 years old), the Corona Virus is nothing worse than a bad case of the flu and has many flu like symptoms, so in February some had it and didn't even go to the doctor. The U.S. hasn't had enough RELIABLE test kits until just recently, so the U.S. hasn't even been testing a large enough sample size of people who probably did have the virus but couldn't get tested for it.

My mother is head (managers) of the blood bank for 2 hospitals and sister is a specialty pharmaceutical rep, and this is what both are telling me. Both in Broward County which is the hot spot for the virus here in Florida. The numbers were probably higher in the early stages but a lack of reliable testing kept the numbers artificially low in February due to the lack of test kits. So the testing sample size in the U.S. in February is simply too low to get any accurate reading on.

Over and Out!

A quick bing search yielded this. Seems pretty mild if they are being honest and open.


https://r.search.yahoo.com/_yl...NYgCKgmfOZhL1qQeN4k-

quote:

Originally posted by Warhorse:
.... if they are being honest and open.

This cracked me up with concern to China's claim of no new cases. A reporter asked Potus today if he had any reason to believe it might not be the truth.

How about the fact that they've lied about it at every stage from the beginning?

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:


If your argument is that we're doing a better job with testing, you might want to reexamine that idea.

As of a few days ago, Italy had performed 148,657 tests and the US had performed 41,552. ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing )

With more than five times the population, we had performed fewer than 1/3 as many tests.

Over what time period with respect to the graphs? For example, how many tests did Italy process two weeks in and how many did the USA process two week in?

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:

quote:

Originally posted by maladat:


If your argument is that we're doing a better job with testing, you might want to reexamine that idea.

As of a few days ago, Italy had performed 148,657 tests and the US had performed 41,552. ( https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing )

With more than five times the population, we had performed fewer than 1/3 as many tests.

Over what time period with respect to the graphs? For example, how many tests did Italy process two weeks in and how many did the USA process two week in?

You can find data for tests performed per day in the United States here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...s/testing-in-us.html

I haven't found a similar single page for Italy, but you can find documents listing total testing numbers to date on a few different days here:

http://cerca.ministerosalute.i...=xml_no_dtd&filter=p

E.g., 11 days ago (about how far behind we are based on matching the curves) on March 8th, 49,937 tests (total) had been performed in Italy. ( http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/...Aree_5351_0_file.pdf )

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by Dakor:

Too little information to go by to simply say “well Italy and the US are exactly the same” when it comes to this virus.

Indeed. See the article I just posted.

Excellent article, BH. Thanks for posting.

From the article in question:

quote:

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
By JOHN P.A. IOANNIDIS

....

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

....

If you want hysteria and hyperbole, how about predicting that pandemic mitigation and containment measures may result in billions of deaths?

quote:

Originally posted by ZSMICHAEL:
An interesting article:

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
< snip >

This was posted on page 176 by Balzé Halzé.
First the fight started and then the purses started being swung, so be careful.