quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
2,400,000 people die in China everyday.

That would be 876 million die in a year. That's way off.

Table of births and deaths 1950–2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...hs_1950%E2%80%932019

quote:

Originally posted by feersum dreadnaught:

quote:

Originally posted by trapper189:
2,400,000 people die in China everyday. Let's assume 28,000 people in China have died from this virus in the last 60 days. That brings the daily death total up to 2,400,466 per day, a .02% increase.

Not sure where your # comes from...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China, says ~10 million died in all of 2019. which is ~27,000 per day, without the virus.

You're are correct. I did a quick google search grabbed a number I recognized from the last time I searched and posted about death rates in China. Unfortunately, I didn't recognize the ridiculousness of the number this time like I did the last time. I'll correct it.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: trapper189,

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
Tens of thousands die every year from the flu. The kung flu hysteria is media driven. Something to work to prevent but not the world ender it is being made out to be.

I don’t think anyone, myself included, thinks it’s a world ender; except maybe for 4% of the people that are unlucky enough to catch it. Like the guy that just died in Hong Kong 12 days after returning from a 2 day visit to Wuhan.

What are you worried about, have you been to Hong Kong lately?

A couple of interesting reads on the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Obviously, there’s a ton of them to choose from.

One comment from the article that stood out:
“People could believe nothing they were being told, so they feared everything, particularly the unknown. How long would it last? How many would it kill? Who would it kill? With the truth buried, morale collapsed. Society itself began to disintegrate.

How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America

https://www.smithsonianmag.com...ague-year-180965222/

1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

https://www.nationalgeographic...emic-science-health/

Here’s hoping this thing somehow burns itself out.

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
Tens of thousands die every year from the flu. The kung flu hysteria is media driven. Something to work to prevent but not the world ender it is being made out to be.

I don’t think anyone, myself included, thinks it’s a world ender; except maybe for 4% of the people that are unlucky enough to catch it. Like the guy that just died in Hong Kong 12 days after returning from a 2 day visit to Wuhan.

What are you worried about, have you been to Hong Kong lately?

Funny fellow

quote:

Originally posted by tanner:
A couple of interesting reads on the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Obviously, there’s a ton of them to choose from.

One comment from the article that stood out:
“People could believe nothing they were being told, so they feared everything, particularly the unknown. How long would it last? How many would it kill? Who would it kill? With the truth buried, morale collapsed. Society itself began to disintegrate.

How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America

https://www.smithsonianmag.com...ague-year-180965222/

1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

https://www.nationalgeographic...emic-science-health/

Here’s hoping this thing somehow burns itself out.

1918 Comps are not valid. We did not have good health care in 1918, and we did not have antibiotics. Most flu deaths in 1918 were the result of end-stage (untreated) pneumonia. We will still have deaths from this new virus, but nothing like 1918, and far fewer vs the current flu that hits us every year. Anyone who is anti-vax should take note. Good luck to you and your family. You'll need it.

The BIG PANDEMIC is still out there. It will not be a Cononavirus, IMO. It will be much more scary than that.

Be aware this is not "The Coronavirus".

"A coronavirus is a kind of common virus that causes an infection in your nose, sinuses, or upper throat. Most coronaviruses are not dangerous."

We have several MDs in the Forum. I imagine we may hear from them soon. Wash your hands frequently every day, and stay away from sick people.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
Tens of thousands die every year from the flu. The kung flu hysteria is media driven. Something to work to prevent but not the world ender it is being made out to be.

I don’t think anyone, myself included, thinks it’s a world ender; except maybe for 4% of the people that are unlucky enough to catch it. Like the guy that just died in Hong Kong 12 days after returning from a 2 day visit to Wuhan.

What are you worried about, have you been to Hong Kong lately?

Funny fellow

Maybe poking a little fun but trying to point out that IMO this isn't anything to be overly concerned with yet. We have been through episodes like this in the past that have all burned out. Statistically there are so many other things to worry about that can take our lives.

quote:

"A coronavirus is a kind of common virus that causes an infection in your nose, sinuses, or upper throat. Most coronaviruses are not dangerous."

The formal designation of this one is 2019-nCoV.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

quote:

"A coronavirus is a kind of common virus that causes an infection in your nose, sinuses, or upper throat. Most coronaviruses are not dangerous."

The formal designation of this one is 2019-nCoV.

Correct.

quote:

Originally posted by tanner:
1918 Flu Pandemic That Killed 50 Million Originated in China, Historians Say

https://www.nationalgeographic...emic-science-health/

Here’s hoping this thing somehow burns itself out.

That's one rumor.
These influenzas we know are a result of close proximity of animals to humans. Over-crowded living situations, dense urban populations and livestock amongst them are the conditions where such virus develop then spread. Because armies in WWI still relied upon livestock to support their troops, its also been hypothesized that this close proximity spurred on the Spanish flu, thus it was started in various military hospitals then spread thru the various military network of bases.

Curious that dense population centers such as India, Pakistan and SE Asia have not been locations for such pandemics. I may be wrong or, perhaps its different diseases but, haven't heard these locations as being sources thru history.

All the fear is arising from what we don't know, not what we know. It's my understanding that the mortality rate from this particular strain of virus is lower than that of other alarming outbreaks in the past, such as SARS. The fly in the ointment is the very long (two weeks) incubation period of the virus, which might became a big factor in the spread of the virus.

Everyone- everyone- is constantly anticipating the end of the world or the end of human civilization. Guess what? That's been going on through all of human history. The belief- always- is that we are living in end times. You have to factor this in to your thinking about things such as epidemics. And, for God's sake, don't ever forget that the news media are the shameless fearmongers of the world. They are trying to scare you, because your fear = concern = seeking out information = ratings = $$.

I bet those people quarantined on that cruise ship are just loving that "vacation."

Seriously, that must really blow, especially if you're being quarantined in a stateroom with no balcony or portholes. Talk about cabin fever.

CDC Sends Its Coronavirus Test Across U.S.
New U.S. cases expected with four more flights arriving with evacuees from Wuhan

https://www.medpagetoday.com/i...e/publichealth/84725

February 05, 2020

The CDC will provide laboratories across the U.S. with testing kits for the novel coronavirus, and new cases are expected as more Americans return from the outbreak's epicenter in Hubei province in China, an agency official said on Wednesday.

Initially, the CDC will distribute some 200 kits to more than 100 qualified laboratories across the country and an additional 200 to select international labs, with each kit having the capacity to test 700-800 patient samples.

"By the start of next week, we expect there to be much enhanced capacity for laboratory testing closer to our patients," Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases in Atlanta, said during a press briefing.

The move follows a Tuesday announcement from the FDA, which issued an emergency use authorization for the CDC's 2019-nCoV real-time polymerase chain reaction diagnostic. Until now, the test had been used exclusively in CDC laboratories. A positive result is indicative of a "likely" infection, FDA said, cautioning that a negative result does not necessarily rule out infection.

On the midday Wednesday press call, Messonnier said no new confirmed cases had been reported in the U.S. since the weekend. But not long after, Wisconsin officials said they had confirmed a new case, bringing the national total to 12.

Messonnier added that 206 individuals suspected of having coronavirus had tested negative while results on 76 others are pending.

CDC also announced that four more flights will arrive on Wednesday and Thursday carrying American passengers evacuating from Hubei's capital, Wuhan, where the outbreak began and continues to be the hardest-hit area. The passengers' health will be assessed by CDC staff upon landing, and all will be quarantined for 2 weeks starting from the time they board the flight home.

"We expect confirmed infections among these and other returning travelers from Hubei province," said Messonnier.

Messonnier said she saw no sign that spread of the virus has slowed, but said the CDC sees a "window of opportunity" to prepare the U.S. in case of broader spread outside China.

"We're preparing as if this is a pandemic -- that's just good common-sense public health -- but of course I'm hoping that it's not," she said.

The current U.S. numbers -- 12 confirmed cases in all, no deaths -- are a stark contrast from those in mainland China, where each day brings news of thousands of new cases and dozens of deaths. On Tuesday alone, an estimated 3,887 new cases and 65 new fatalities were reported.

"The most cases in a single day since the outbreak started," said World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, MSc, during a WHO press conference on Wednesday.

So far, 99% of the nearly 25,000 cases have occurred in China, with about 80% originating within Hubei province, of which Wuhan is the capital. Adhanom Ghebreyesus noted, however, that reporting has lagged from some high-income countries. As of this writing, all but two of the 494 deaths have occurred in mainland China.

WHO announced that it had launched a Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan to deal with the outbreak, with $675 million needed to support efforts to prevent, detect, and diagnose new transmissions of the new coronavirus over the next 3 months in the affected countries.

"Our message to the international community is: invest today, or pay more later," said Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

As part of the effort, WHO will send 250,000 coronavirus tests to more than 70 laboratories around the world, as well as 500,000 masks, 350,000 pairs of gloves, 40,000 respirators, and nearly 18,000 isolation gowns to the 24 countries.

During the CDC call, Messonnier was asked about reports from China that a mother there may have infected her unborn baby -- so-called neonatal vertical transmission -- and said the CDC is actively looking for confirmation, but that this scenario would be "pretty unusual" for a respiratory virus.

"However, as we've said all along, there's a lot about this novel coronavirus that we don't know," she said.

Researchers have been struggling to fully understand how the novel virus originated and how best to manage patients.

Writing in Nature, researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology found that the novel coronavirus shares 79.5% of the genetic sequence with the 2002-2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus and is "96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus." But how it got from bats to humans is unknown.

Outside of supportive care, the best approach for treating patients has also yet to be determined, but various therapeutic avenues are being examined, said Carlos del Rio, MD, of Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, and Preeti Malani, MD, MSJ, of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, in JAMA.

They noted that the first U.S. patient was treated with the antiviral remdesivir, a monoclonal antibody that has been tested as a therapy against Ebola, and that based on past studies suggesting a possible benefit in SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), the HIV/AIDS drug lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) is now being investigated in a Chinese trial as a treatment for the novel coronavirus.

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
Dr. Li, 34, was hospitalized on January 12 after contracted the virus from his patient, and he was confirmed to have the coronavirus on February 1, and The World Health organization has just confirmed his passing...

I found it interesting that he wasn’t old and presumably not suffering from other serious disease or infirmities that was supposedly the reason the first people died. Now I’m wondering about the truth of the claim by the Chinese government that 80%+ of the dead were over 65 and 75% or so were suffering from diabetes or other diseases.

And that's another thing about this virus- it kills the old and it kills the young, which is typical of influenza, but this particular strain also kills people who are in the prime of life, and that is not at all typical.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
I bet those people quarantined on that cruise ship are just loving that "vacation."

Seriously, that must really blow, especially if you're being quarantined in a stateroom with no balcony or portholes. Talk about cabin fever.

I wonder if they took away their wifi or any other ability to communicate.

quote:

Originally posted by sigfreund:

quote:

Originally posted by wcb6092:
Dr. Li, 34, was hospitalized on January 12 after contracted the virus from his patient, and he was confirmed to have the coronavirus on February 1, and The World Health organization has just confirmed his passing...

I found it interesting that he wasn’t old and presumably not suffering from other serious disease or infirmities that was supposedly the reason the first people died. Now I’m wondering about the truth of the claim by the Chinese government that 80%+ of the dead were over 65 and 75% or so were suffering from diabetes or other diseases.

Sad things is his wife also infected with the disease with 8 month pregnant, and both of his parents were infected too.

quote:

Originally posted by parabellum:
And that's another thing about this virus- it kills the old and it kills the young, which is typical of influenza, but this particular strain also kills people who are in the prime of life, and that is not at all typical.

The strange effect of this virus is the 12 and under children have not seen the severity or mortality that adults see. The same inconsistency appeared with Sars and Mers.

Not an epidemiologist (I thought we might have one here though), but lots of folks are working long hours not far from me to try and understand this particular bug. Not panic time - yet - but as previously noted, this is a virus. It has already begun to demonstrate variability towards increased infectivity to humans - not a positive development. So far, thankfully, lethality is not as variable and remains - comparatively - low. If it begins to demonstrate an increase in this variable, that would trigger alarms.

2019-nCoV has an RNA genome, already typed to almost 30,000 nucleotides, with information now being shared by the Chinese (first to last, seems to be less than a 10 nucleotide difference, indicating a very recent human infection - which we already knew). Good news - from the sequencing, it appears unlikely that this is a manufactured or purposely altered pathogen. It looks as if, right now, that there was a single Case Zero host, which is actually a good thing. It appears subsequent transmission has been in the vast majority human-to-human, although zoonoses analysis is ongoing and inconclusive.

So far, the non-human reservoir is unknown, although sequences are shared by bats, civets and snakes, known to be sold in the place associated with the initial outbreak. This will be important later in the control and elimination in the human population - it will never completely go away, and neither did SARS and MERS. And this has the potential to be a bad bug. Very. It is not yet. More to follow....

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

quote:

As of now, 28,296 total confirmed, 28,039 in China. 565 total deaths, 1 in Hong Kong, 1 in Philippines, rest in China.

30 crematoriums working 24/7 seems like a lot for just 565 people... but governments never lie.

Wuhan crematoriums 'are burning bodies 24/7 to cope with extra workload during coronavirus outbreak'

• Wuhan crematoriums working around the clock to cope with influx of bodies
  
• Worker Mr Yun said 'more manpower' needed as chambers are working 24/7
  
• Bodies of coronavirus victims must be burned, not buried to prevent spread

A crematorium worker in the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak has revealed the long working hours he and his colleagues are putting in to transfer bodies from hospitals and private homes.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne...-extra-workload.html

I would not stake anything on China's stated numbers, but using them to subtract from the stated total is quicker and less error prone (for me anyway) than finding all the other countries numbers and adding them up. I'm more interested in the numbers from other countries as I suspect they may be more accurate. Time will tell.