quote:

Originally posted by WaterburyBob:
I watched a presentation this morning via Webex on the Corona Virus given by our head of infectious diseases, and also a WHO physician.

He didn't think that the mortality rate for this virus was going to be any worse than that of the flu in the US.

He kept a straight face telling those lies???

We are seeing a current death rate at least 300 times higher for this new virus strain than common flu. In one family dinner in China, one infected person spread it to 25 others persons. Its MUCH more spreadable than common flu.

Currently the US can handle a few cases, and keep the death rates lower than China, sure. Almost all hospitals in America are at 95-105% capacity daily. And that's just every day normal medical problems in America. Throw in a million flu cases? No supplies? No ventilators? Pharmacy out of meds and not getting restocked? I'd estimate with the easiest of estimation that the death rate skyrockets once the system is over loaded.

It’s hard not to get a little twitchy when China keeps releasing higher and higher figures. Undoubtedly, the actual infection and death rates are higher than reported; instead of plateauing (with disinformation tweaking) they are going up. Now, the admitted number of infected has topped 20,000 and death toll around 425. The fact that very few deaths have occurred outside mainland China is of little or comfort to me when you consider:

- the highly infectious nature of the virus
- the lengthly symptomless incubation period
- the known fact that Chinese have fled not only quarantined areas but the country itself
- the ease and rate of transmissibility
- the evidently under-reported death rate, blaming non-specific causes of death
- the recent discovery of 2 infected employees at a casino in Macau which see more visitors annually than Las Vegas
- a death in Hong Kong, which is heavily populated with a China-like density AND accessible to westerners

This is how pandemics get rolling; they start slowly, and gain steam exponentially while governments downplay severity in the interest of preventing a panic and subsequent runs on food, water, medical supplies, etc. Again, I’m not prone to panic, but quietly gathering supplies such as bulk foodstuffs and water is becoming a bit more attractive. Governments and media have a poor track record on keeping the populace informed until things actually get bad.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...st-death-11580799736

da 'bola, part deux, then?

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
da 'bola, part deux, then?

Worse- now we actually have something to be worried about...

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
da 'bola, part deux, then?

Worse- now we actually have something to be worried about...

Probably not....'bola & Marburg have a 50% death rate, rabies is 99%. This virus, from what is known is about 2-3% death rate.

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
da 'bola, part deux, then?

Worse- now we actually have something to be worried about...

You're really worked up over this thing, aren't you? I must be missing something. It seems to me hundreds maybe thousands of people die every day just from the flu. So why should I be overly concerned about this thing?

Tens of thousands die every year from the flu. The kung flu hysteria is media driven. Something to work to prevent but not the world ender it is being made out to be.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:

quote:

Originally posted by gearhounds:

quote:

Originally posted by 46and2:
da 'bola, part deux, then?

Worse- now we actually have something to be worried about...

You're really worked up over this thing, aren't you? I must be missing something. It seems to me hundreds maybe thousands of people die every day just from the flu. So why should I be overly concerned about this thing?

My last comment was a joke about Ebola; for all its lethality, that same lethality is it’s weakness. Also if you’d read all my posts, I clearly said I wasn’t panicking, merely suggesting that if the reports of this being a bio weapon are proven to be true, a little prepping isn’t going to hurt anyone. Btw, when was the last time anywhere was heavily quarantined for the flu? As in millions quarantined? Throw the Chinese and their tendency against transparency into it...

quote:

Originally posted by dave7378:
Tens of thousands die every year from the flu. The kung flu hysteria is media driven. Something to work to prevent but not the world ender it is being made out to be.

I don’t think anyone, myself included, thinks it’s a world ender; except maybe for 4% of the people that are unlucky enough to catch it. Like the guy that just died in Hong Kong 12 days after returning from a 2 day visit to Wuhan.

quote:

Originally posted by Balzé Halzé:
You're really worked up over this thing, aren't you? I must be missing something. It seems to me hundreds maybe thousands of people die every day just from the flu. So why should I be overly concerned about this thing?

Many reasons you shouldn't stick your head in the sand.

1) Infection rate way worse than standard flu
2) Lethality (300 to 500 times worse than the standard flu, depending on who you believe.)
3) An unstoppable global pandemic that burns through the worlds population in the span of about 18 months to 2 years.
4) We are in the early stages now. 20,000 dead. In the first month. Once it gains traction and goes world wide, expect hundreds of thousands to millions dead.
5) If it goes full scale pandemic, and it looks like it probably will, you will know several people that will die. You might even be one of them. If you are over 65, its not looking good.
6) You cant just go to a hospital. There are 10-100 beds and they all will be full. You and the 5000 people outside have to wait. Stand in line with the super sick coughing all over you. After a couple days of that and no help, you'll probably give up and go home.
7) This is America. We have freedoms. Easily 50% of the health care workers will quit and stay home to protect their families and protect themselves. In China, they threaten the healthcare workers with death or prison. Show up to work, or else. That doesn't work here. The nurses and doctors will have mental breakdowns, and the ones that stayed, probably wont stay for long.
8) Don't listen to Chinese. You cant trust anything they say. WATCH what they do. An unprecedented 60 million people and growing daily quarantine? Door to door goon squads dragging people from their homes? They are losing their shit. I wonder why? Perhaps it IS a big deal, and MUCH worse than standard flu?
9) No workers, no truck drivers? No grocery stores with food? No gas stations that still have fuel? Mass civil unrest unlike anything that has ever been seen before. Cities will burn. Cities will be death traps.
10) No sanitation workers. No city water employees. No power-plant employees. No water, no electricity, no garbage collection?

Yeah. The above is worst case scenario. We are still early and the best minds are trying to find a cure. But if they don't, or it takes too long, its not hard to see that THIS could be the real deal. History in the making.

Go clean your guns. Buy some (lots) of food. Prepare.

If anything is ever that bad why would you want to survive it?
Most of us here are already way closer to dead than born. Sorry if you don't feel like it's been a good run if ya gets da crona, but I don't see fighting for rice and beans in my future.

^^^^^^^^^^^
What were the stats on smallpox, and polio?? Any idea??

At the risk of being insinuated as an alarmist...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...rent-data-shows.html

This has some updated info added to an earlier report from January 21st.

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:...
4) We are in the early stages now. 20,000 dead. In the first month.
...

Where did you pull that number from?

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
The above is worst case scenario. ... THIS could be the real deal.

Emphasis added.

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:...
4) We are in the early stages now. 20,000 dead. In the first month.
...

Where did you pull that number from?

This site reports just over 20,000 CASES... < 500 deaths world wide.

Link

quote:

Originally posted by sigmonkey:

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:...
4) We are in the early stages now. 20,000 dead. In the first month.
...

Where did you pull that number from?

I think he's conflating infected versus deceased. Actual lethality looks to be around 2-ish percent, which globally is disconcerting because it facilitates spread (along with long incubation). An organism with high lethality (yersinia pestis comes to mind - 30-90%) rapidly burns itself out because mobility among corpses limits its spread - although devastating to highly populated areas. Low infectivity + low lethality + long incubation = good. High infectivity + high lethality + long incubation = bad. High infectivity + high lethality + short incubation = good (really). Low infectivity + high lethality + long incubation = good - epidemiologically (Ebola). High infectivity + low lethality + short incubation = good. High infectivity + low lethality + long incubation = where we are - the unknown being the rate of mutation of this particular virus (which mutate much more rapidly than bacteria), and which direction in the equation it goes. We shall see.

Another angle to consider- of the 20,000+ cases, approximately 3000 of those are in critical condition. That works out to around 14%- a lot of resources tied up if it really gets going outside of mainland China. For a little good news, I also read that at least the German case where the woman infected several people while asymptotic was likely not accurate; it was determined that she was showing some signs of illness, even if only slightly. That is helpful and hopefully stays accurate.

quote:

Originally posted by bubbatime:
We are seeing a current death rate at least 300 times higher for this new virus strain than common flu. In one family dinner in China, one infected person spread it to 25 others persons. Its MUCH more spreadable than common flu.

It is common practice in China, even at formal business dinners, for everyone to use their individual chopsticks to pick up food from common dishes and bowls, as they pass by on the large turntable in the center of a round table. The only serving utensils are typically for things like soup. This is true everywhere in China I have been, which covers a lot of the major regions east of the central mountains.

So infecting a family at dinner is a bit easier than in places where things like "double dipping" horrify people. Now, if the Baijiu is strong enough (>50% ABV), it should help be acting as a disinfectant... (not really, but it's a good excuse to drink)

Another thing to think about is how the virus does not seem to be spreading much in countries outside of China. Most of those infected had traveled in China recently. At least one traveler's spouse did get infected though.

Keep in mind that smoking is quite common in China and the air pollution is pretty bad in many places, so many Chinese may already have compromised pulmonary systems, potentially increasing the likelihood of pneumonia and complications leading to death.