Gee, I wonder why the Chinese turned down the assistance of a team from the CDC, which employs some of the best epidemiologists on the planet? Not really. It doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies knowing this is breaking out of quarantine zones in such an oppressive, heavy handed place. The Chinese government has really fucked this up since day one.

A little good news- the reported cure rate is increasing, indicating that the cocktail of drugs used to treat victims appears to have a positive effect. Also, China has ok’d a visit from the WHO. Perhaps this will help clear up rumors of just how bad this thing has really gotten, at least in mainland China.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...virus-china.amp.html

Floating prison. Rumor is that they've even cut off the open bar...

'Diamond Princess' Reports 66 New Coronavirus Infections, Bringing Total Onboard To 136

The nightmare cruise from hell just got even worse for the thousands of passengers still aboard.

The Diamond Princess, the cruise ship that has been quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan for roughly a week now, saw the total number of confirmed nCoV infections climb to 136 on Monday, cementing its position as the host of the largest outbreak outside China.

Japanese health authorities have been extremely careful in dealing with the ship, which has become a massive albatross for the government of PM Shinzo Abe. While Hong Kong let a cruise ship sail yesterday following a 4-day quarantine (the ship was reportedly found to be free of viral infections), the 'Diamond Princess', and the 3,600+ remaining passengers and crew, will be stuck in place until mid-February. The NYT chronicled the growing sense of unease and paranoia aboard the ship, which we cited yesterday.



The ship’s captain Stefano Ravera announced Monday that 66 new cases of the virus had been confirmed, bringing the infection total of passengers and crew to 136, roughly equal to all the other cases in Asia outside China. Media reports have claimed more than 2,500 passengers and crew remain aboard the ship.

According to CNBC, the nationalities of the newly infected are Japanese (45), American (11), Australian (four), Filipino (three), Canadian (one), English (one) and Ukrainian (one). Notably, all of these infections occurred person to person, since they were all spread from 'patient zero' to others aboard the ship.

Princess Cruises, the Carnival Japan unit that owns the ship, told NBC News that it was continuing to follow guidance from Japan’s health ministry regarding plans for providing medical care and passengers ultimately disembarking. Meanwhile, one passenger told the NYT yesterday that those aboard the ship are being left in the dark, and have resorted to tracking the comings and goings of ambulances to try to keep abreast of what's going on. Many suspect the virus has been spread through the ship's ventilation system.

Another cruise ship, the Westerdam, was granted permission to dock in Thailand on Thursday after three other countries - Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines - refused to grant it permission to dock.

The ship was quarantined for two weeks after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong on Jan. 25 tested positive for the virus six days after leaving. After initially finding no cases aboard the ship, the cruise line copped to the first ten cases, prompting more intense scrutiny by the Japanese government. Princess Cruises said it didn't expect new cases to be confirmed after the beginning of the quarantine, though that has clearly happened.

So far, it doesn't look like the virus has made the jump from the ship to the surrounding area. If that happens, expect Japanese authorities to resort to the same types of draconian quarantine measures that have been imposed in China.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...ing-total-infections

It's entertaining to read the stories that say a gazillion people in China are infected and half a gazillion are dead or dying, but I can't really believe that when other countries with infections have had minimal spreading and what, 2 deaths?

We're two months in. If it was going to kill everyone I'd expect it to have knocked off hundreds more outside of China by now.

quote:

I can't really believe that when other countries with infections have had minimal spreading and what, 2 deaths?

A couple of points:
1. This cruise ship is a petri dish to study how this thing spreads. There was 1 person who had it... and they've quarantined everyone aboard. Now, there's a growing sense of paranoia among the 3,600 people stuck onboard the Diamond Princess - including their 'deranged conspiracies' about the virus spreading through their food and air ducts.
2. The health care is much better outside of China so the treatment and rate of recovery will be much better.

The 160 or so staff from India are petitioning India to come rescue them from this floating prison plague ship. Beyond wondering whether India would be able to maintain a proper quarantine environment, I also wonder who would attend to the needs of the passengers if the staff abandoned ship.

God, what an awful situation.

This is why I don't take cruises and seldom fly.

quote:

Originally posted by chongosuerte:
It's entertaining to read the stories that say a gazillion people in China are infected and half a gazillion are dead or dying, but I can't really believe that when other countries with infections have had minimal spreading and what, 2 deaths?

We're two months in. If it was going to kill everyone I'd expect it to have knocked off hundreds more outside of China by now.

It is in its early stages so far and mainly only hitting China really hard. The official consensus is that it spreads really easily,which is bad and the average death rate from those infected is 2%. That sounds really low but in reality it is not good. The seasonal flu has a death rate of .1

So even if 40% of the world's population were to contract the new coronavirus and the death rate were to remain at 2% that would equate to 65 million people dying worldwide.

The next few weeks will really be an indicator of what direction this is headed. I would not be surprised if massive infections start occurring in Africa next.

As long as the numbers of infected remain low in developed countries, I suspect that the death rate will remain low due to much better healthcare infrastructure. I am worried that if the patient count rises too high, it may overwhelm the system and then we could see death rates rise considerably.

quote:

I am worried that if the patient count rises too high, it may overwhelm the system and then we could see death rates rise considerably

That is the Achilles heel of western medicines resistance to outbreaks. Overwhelming the system would have a cascading effect as space ran out, drugs ran out, and most importantly, health care providers ran out (either literally or from attrition as they inevitably became exposed themselves). Humans natural instinct is to flee from big catastrophes, so carrying the pathogen to more unprepared, unsuspecting populations increases vectors and therefore, exposures.

Disasters are difficult enough to manage when they are localized. The vast majority of the country which remains unaffected can gather aid and send support. Flooding, earthquakes, tornadoes. These are terrible, but localized events.

Widespread disasters are much more concerning as there is no one left to render assistance. Everyone/everywhere is hit hard. Everyone is alone. But pandemics aren't alone in this characteristic. There are other events that while unlikely are none the less. Para's comet, famine, EMP & solar flares, ice age, Sky Net, aliens, zombies, and of course good old nuclear war.

My advice: Buy bourbon and Spam. You'll have everything you'll need.

On a Coronavirus Cruise, a Knock on the Door: ‘You Tested Positive’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/o...share_mobilewebshare

TOKYO— Rebecca and Kent Frasure were sitting down to breakfast Friday morning when a stream of ambulances pulled up beside the cruise ship docked at the Yokohama port where they were quarantined for two weeks because of the novel coronavirus.

“Oh, there must be more people,” Mr. Frasure remembers telling his wife. The couple from Forest Grove, Ore., had watched twice previously that week from the balcony of their room on the Diamond Princess as ambulances spirited away people who had tested positive for the virus.

What they didn’t realize: This time the Japanese health authorities were coming for Rebecca.

“I was just flabbergasted. You’re dumbfounded to be hearing it is you,” said Mrs. Frasure, 35 years old, in a video interview from her hospital bed in Tokyo this weekend.

So far, 70 people aboard the Diamond Princess have tested positive for the virus, according to an announcement to passengers Sunday. They are being treated at hospitals on shore.

Officials have said the outbreak may have begun with a Hong Kong man who disembarked partway through the cruise. Those still aboard have to stay there until at least Feb. 19 as Japan tries to prevent the outbreak, which originated in China and has killed more than 800 people, from spreading to its shores.

What started for the Frasures as a pleasant cruise around Asia, with stops in Vietnam and Hong Kong Disneyland, has now landed Mrs. Frasure in the isolation ward of the infectious diseases unit, while her husband is stuck in his cabin.

The good news is Mrs. Frasure hasn’t had any of the symptoms of the virus, such as fever or coughing. Her temperature was measured at 97.9 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday, and she said doctors were doing tests but not specifically treating any ailment.

Some 3,700 passengers and crew were on the Diamond Princess as it traveled through East Asia for two weeks. After it arrived in Yokohama at the beginning of February, the Frasures were planning to enjoy a few weeks touring Japan. Instead, the ship’s passengers were placed under quarantine on Feb. 3.

Soon after, Japanese health officials appeared at the door of the Frasures’s 500-square-foot cabin and signaled with gestures that they were going to insert a thermometer in their ears. The couple filled out a questionnaire and said they didn’t have symptoms of the novel coronavirus.
Kent and Rebecca Frasure visited Hong Kong's Disneyland as part of their travels on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Something about the visit prompted the officials to come back the next day. Mrs. Frasure wonders if it was because they checked boxes saying they had taken painkillers—although that was for regular aches and pains, not a fever. The couple were brought to a room on board the ship where a Japanese doctor and nurse inserted a swab stick in their throats to collect samples.

Then came the knock on Friday during breakfast. This time a crew member was translating for Japanese officials, explaining that Mrs. Frasure had to go but Mr. Frasure, 42, couldn’t join his wife because he tested negative.

“It was pretty surreal to be there at the door and having them tell me, ‘You tested positive. He has to stay on the ship,’” Mrs. Frasure said. She was given an hour to pack her bags, then waited nearly six hours before officials arrived to take her away. Mr. Frasure said he gave his wife a hug.

Mrs. Frasure walked into a waiting ambulance and found another female passenger who would accompany her on the 90-minute journey with flashing lights and no sirens.

At the hospital, she went through a negative-pressure room—an isolation technique to prevent the escape of contaminated air—and was shown to a private room. She went through further tests including a chest X-ray and blood work, and doctors have been checking in.

“I feel fine really still,” she said.

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But it is no fun being in a hospital alone where limited English is spoken and nurses carry pocket-size electronic translators. “The pillow is seriously like a napkin. It’s filled with beanbag stuff,” she said, describing a type of pillow preferred by many people in Japan. Meals consist of dishes like tofu and rice.

Mrs. Frasure was told at the hospital that both Japanese and U.S. quarantine laws require her to spend at least another 14 days in isolation. “My concern is not knowing when I will be out of here,” she said. She also said she wondered whether there would be any hurdles going back to her job in customer service at an insurance company.

Meanwhile, Mr. Frasure, who works for a semiconductor company, is sitting through his own quarantine. The staff continue bringing meals for two people. “On the one hand I have extra food,” he said. “Then I sit down and look over, and she’s not there.”

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:

A couple of points:
1. This cruise ship is a petri dish to study how this thing spreads. There was 1 person who had it... and they've quarantined everyone aboard. Now, there's a growing sense of paranoia among the 3,600 people stuck onboard the Diamond Princess - including their 'deranged conspiracies' about the virus spreading through their food and air ducts.
2. The health care is much better outside of China so the treatment and rate of recovery will be much better.

We cruised to Alaska out of Vancouver, there are thousands of Chinese, Japanese etc coming into Vancouver to see the city, and go on cruises to AK.

There was some virus going around our ship, lot of people caught it, can't say it was or wasn't from China, but it was easy to catch, a couple in our party got sick. Some kind of stomach flu.

To combat it I upgraded my drink ticket to Premium and soaked my interior with Single Malt Scotch. Seemed to work...

New Research Suggests The Coronavirus May Be Far Worse Than We Thought

quote:

New Research

Come on man - there's no research cited in that work, just sensational headlines. And his fancy highlighter.

quote:

Originally posted by chellim1:
New Research Suggests The Coronavirus May Be Far Worse Than We Thought

[FLASH_VIDEO]<iframe frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y4Ho96UKfYA" width="560"></iframe>[/FLASH_VIDEO]

The factual information from this, discounting the "OMG we"re all gonna die" approach, is relatively unchanged:

1. The infectivity index is essentially the same - it's readily transmissible, and that may have increased slightly.
2. Its lethality is low, and may have in fact decreased slightly.
3. Reported status is confusing, because, well, several tens of thousands of cases on a global scale.
4. The WHO is not great at communicating.

quote:

The factual information from this, discounting the "OMG we"re all gonna die" approach, is relatively unchanged:

Yeah, I think the factual information is relatively unchanged but I don't think he's saying "OMG we"re all gonna die".
I think he's saying the ChiCom government is lying to their own people and to the world. And he's right. Communists lie. It's what they do. He's also saying "prepare early if you think you might need some supplies" because the time to prepare is before everyone else panics.
It's the same as Para's advice to buy your ammo now while supplies are cheap and plentiful.

The above vid confirms a lot of what I knew or strongly suspected. What worries me is the WHO's approach to reducing panic; they might in the short term, but will undoubtedly allow infection to expand. When I heard China was allowing them in country I had more hope than I do now that they would get to the bottom of the story.

The airlines "medical doctor" thing is frankly ridiculous, given what we already HAVE confirmed. Clearly, the airlines main concern is keeping flights full and panic at a low level. Nothing says "don't fly" like masks and gloves on a flying incubator that spreads the cabin air as efficiently as possible. Flying vector machines. And planes have long been thought of as the greatest facilitator of spreading communicable disease globally.

Peter Navarro: Coronavirus Highlights Need for U.S. to Make Our Own Medical Products Again…

White House manufacturing policy advisor Peter Navarro has an important discussion with Maria Bartiromo about the consequences of the Coronavirus which includes the need for U.S. companies to return manufacturing to the United States on key medical products and pharmaceuticals. A very important subject.

Both Navarro and Bartiromo note that our dependency on Asia for medical products is a problem when a global virus erupts, global demand for those products peaks, and the supply of those products becomes most urgent.



https://theconservativetreehou...s-again/#more-183224

"We're Definitely Not Prepared" - African Healthcare Officials Fear Virus Spread

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...ls-fear-virus-spread

While the African continent continues to battle plagues of locust and food shortages, an even bigger worry is looming on the horizon, that some of the Chinese workers have carried the virus to Ethiopia or the African countries they work in, and will those countries be able to contain it while they can, while the numbers are small?

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

As we detailed previously, if travel bans to and from the infected parts of China turn out to have been justified then one country in particular may be worth watching, Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s Bole International airport is the main African gateway to and from China. On average 1500 passengers per day arrive from China every day. Ethiopia scans them all for symptoms which essentially means taking their temperature.

Many of those passengers then fly on to other parts of Africa where Chinese companies are doing business. These are 2018 figures courtesy of Brookings.




Jim Bianco @biancoresearch

To date no infections on the continent of Africa have been reported. Why?

Only today, February 7, did anyone on the continent actually get a testing kits to look for infected people.

What will this number be in two weeks? https://twitter.com/ncovperspe.../1225682760125169664 …

Unfortunately, as AP reports, it does not appear so... at least yet. Countries are racing to take precautions as hundreds of travelers arrive from China every day. Safeguards include stronger surveillance at ports of entry and improved quarantine and testing measures across Africa, home to 1.2 billion people and some of the world’s weakest systems for detecting and treating disease.

But the effort has been complicated by a critical shortage of testing kits and numerous illnesses that display symptoms similar to the flu-like virus.

“The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

“We’re definitely not prepared. If we had a couple of cases, it would spread very quickly,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said.

“We’re doing the best we can with what resources we have.”

The Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital, or Sinozam, a low-slung facility near the city’s train station, has taken some precautions, including checking patient temperatures with infrared thermometers and establishing isolation areas.

Without testing, officials are “just relying on the symptoms” and whether they persist.

“But from what we are learning right now, some people show hardly any symptoms at all,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said, calling that the hospital’s biggest worry.

Chinese embassies in Zambia and elsewhere in Africa have been unusually outspoken, giving news conferences and television interviews to discuss their response to the outbreak. Embassies require arriving Chinese citizens to declare where they have been in China. They also urge citizens to voluntarily isolate themselves for 14 days.

“We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines,” said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe.

“Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous.”

The WHO says countries are obligated to inform it of any confirmed cases and are requested to report suspected cases as well. The WHO chief has publicly urged countries to share information. So far, African countries appear to be complying, a WHO adviser on health security, Dr. Ambrose Talisuna, told reporters.

“A total of 103 people died in a single day in China's Hubei province on Monday - the highest toll recorded in any one 24-hour period since the outbreak began in December…”

https://mol.im/a/7989071

We're gonna need some better liars...

In China, the scapegoating continued on Tuesday as Beijing fired two of the most senior health officials in Hubei just hours after officials reported 108 new deaths from the virus on Monday, the first time a daily death toll has topped 100. Only 2 of the more than 1,000 deaths occurred outside mainland China.

Zhang Jin, the Communist party boss of the provincial health commission in Hubei, and its director Liu Yingzi were removed by decree of the party yesterday.

In their stead, senior Beijing official Chen Yixin has been sent to Wuhan to lead virus-suppression efforts at the crisis's ground zero. Chen, a former deputy party chief in Hubei, will be deputy head of a central government group dispatched to the province.

Additionally, 3 senior Wuhan officials have been summoned to Beijing to explain their failings, according to state media reports cited by the SCMP.

Authorities were accused of playing down the extent of the outbreak in early January because they wanted to project an image of stability.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geop...ficials-over-botched