Orlando area members, what are you seeing and hearing about this tropical storm?

We are due to fly out of Philly early Saturday and arrive in Orlando by 11 am or so. How screwed are we?

This week of Disney and Universal may turn out to be a bust I fear.

Very. Right now they're showing land fall around 8pm on Sunday and around Daytona. Saturday you're going to have tropical storm winds in Orlando and chances are your flight will be cancelled. Even if it does turn further east, unless it turns considerably, you will see more rain this weekend from the storm than you could ever imagine. I would postpone your trip.


Here is a map and time of arrival of Tropical Storm winds.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refre...tml?mltoa34#contents

A couple things from someone who's lived here for some 50 years....

First, the media has already begun its 'Gloom and Doom' ramp up routine.
Second, the storm is too far away to know specifically where it will be on Saturday or Sunday.
Third, no one knows how strong the storm would be even if it did make it into Central Florida.

Long story short, 'no one' can tell you what Saturday will bring just yet. Just keep watching the Weather Channel for updates, and by Thursday you should have a much better idea of where and what the storm will look like.

quote:

Originally posted by bigdeal:
A couple things from someone who's lived here for some 50 years....

First, the media has already begun its 'Gloom and Doom' ramp up routine.
Second, the storm is too far away to know specifically where it will be on Saturday or Sunday.
Third, no one knows how strong the storm would be even if it did make it into Central Florida.

Long story short, 'no one' can tell you what Saturday will bring just yet. Just keep watching the Weather Channel for updates, and by Thursday you should have a much better idea of where and what the storm will look like.

This is all true. But a complete tourential rained filled weekend will still almost be a guarantee and Disney is no fun in the rain.

quote:

Originally posted by jimmy123x:
But a complete tourential rained filled weekend will still almost be a guarantee and Disney is no fun in the rain.

Except nothing is guaranteed at this point. I've lived through 50+ years of these storms and they are incredibly unpredictable. That storm is currently so far from Florida that its a crap shoot at this point as to where it will end up. By Thursday we'll have a clue. Until then it will be nothing but a continual stream of weather 'professionals' losing their minds over another "killer" storm.

Another good source for tropical related information, a conglomerate of multiple sources. Think of it as the Drudgereport, but for tropical weather.

https://www.spaghettimodels.com

If you do come, pick up rain ponchos etc. at home rather than counting on finding what you need at reasonable cost when you get here.

If the current forecast track holds (who knows, at this point?), it will come ashore around Daytona. Not a tinker's chance of turning southwest after that, which is the direction it would need to take to get to the Orlando / Disney area.

Probably carrying enough moisture and thermal energy to insure very windy conditions and a lot of rain in the northern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula.

Nowadays every "storm" is going to be the end of the world. I own a home in Florida and Wis. Here in Wis. they (the ever knowledgeable) weather gurus are predicting an extremely cold and snowy winter. They can't even get tomarrows weather right and they predict what will happen this winter. Like others said wait and see.

not looking good for you right now

on the PLUS side -- if it fizzles you may have the park relatively crowdless

but it's definitely coming this way / Central-ish FL -- (I'm in Tampa area...)

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Forget watching the Weather Channel. Go to the NHC website. It has the latest updates without the hype and annoying commentary. It will probably rain in Orlando this weekend. The storm is still too far away to determine where it will end up. The Weather channel is entertainment for those that do not have to deal with hurricanes on a personal basis.

Take the experienced advice of BigDeal and V-Tail: Don't make a decision based on the hype just yet. I've also lived through many of these and the coverage over the last few years has been insane. Right now you are looking at a rain storm, not even a hurricane, with no real idea where it will hit.

The Spaghetti models (above: www.spaghettimodels.com) seem to know more than Max Mayfield, and every guru down here. We've been getting live, real person updates from NOAA every 6 hours just in case we need to prepare.

I lived inside the Miami EOC during Irma and watched as the storm went from bad to worse to Armageddon. Cats and dogs living together, Noah's Ark, end of the world - we had one stroke victim that was transported inside a bearcat instead of an ambulance. It fizzled and hit with 1/1,000 of the forecasted effect.
Point is - take their advice. Watch till Thursday, make an informed decision with a heavy dose of common sense. If it follows true to form, you might have a rainy day - and the entire park to yourself.

It will be the storm of the century!!!

Oh, wait...how many of these storms have we had this century?

On the spaghettimodels site, he also has his social media feed on the right-hand side where he provides discussion of everything. It's a great resource.

I live less than 10 miles south west of Disney World. Back in 2016 hurricane Matthew was heading right for Florida. Disney closed in preparation of the storm coming through central Florida.
At the last minute the storm turned and went up the coast instead. As my wife and I always say "you will know where it is going when it gets there".
We have lived in Florida for 20 years and have seen this happen before. We have also seen storms that were not suppose to effect us end up going right over our house. We tell people to take the warnings serious and be prepared. It is better to have nothing happen and be prepared than to not be prepared and have it hit where you are.
Your best bet is to keep an eye on the weather as the weekend gets closer.
This is the main reason why we stopped going on Disney Cruises during hurricane season. We not only had to think about how storms would affect our cruises but also damage to our house either before our cruise or while we were on one.

I'm hoping you get at most a day of rain and the remainder of the week free run in uncrowded parks!

I'd say one thing. Ive lived here in the Miami area well over 60 yrs and my previous home destroyed being on the tip of Hurricane Andrews eye wall. I'll not second guess anything in the direct path of those upper category 3-5 storms. Those nucklehead media types always start their fear mongering to gin up the paranoia, they've been caught on video many times stretching the truth. Like the video of them shooting those folks in a canoe paddling along a roadway, when somebody unsuspectingly walked by in the puddle to discover it was just inches in depth. Although the media's emphasis at the time it was being recorded was "widespread flooding!!" yea, right.

What the forecasters grossly underestimated was the strength increasing as quickly as Andrew did after making a left from the Bahamas directly beelining for the area I lived in. It jumped from a category 2-3 to a 5 at landfall. I rode that one out with my dogs and fiancee and as the windows, roof, and doors were blowing out I swore then I'd flee if there were any reasonable good guess that a higher category storm was on the approach again in a hurricane warning area. I'd be prepared to move inland to a more secure location.

I had to take the insurance and move to this house at the time because it was really unlivable without windows, sections of the roof completely gone, doors blown off when the winds ripped through the house during the peak of the storm. We rode it out in the hallway bathroom. dogs and all huddled in there praying for an end to the deep train locomotive sounds of the winds.

I wished I had photos of the 2" fir strip the blew threw the outside concrete block wall like a spear, or the paddle fan blades that were stuck in the bedroom wall as they flew off from spinning around when the window coverings, 2" plywood at the time ripped off, and the windows blew in blowing the raging wind gusts throughout the house. Thats a minor portion of the damage, too much to describe, everything soaked and considered destroyed by Allstate due to the salt content of all the wind and rain blowing in thru the house. I lived almost two miles from the water as it came straight in bearing down in our area at 20mi per hour. That may have been one good thing if, there were anything considered good is that it was a fast moving tightly cropped hurricane. The damage however was like a tornado, some concrete block homes taken down to the foundation completely..

I'll not forget 8/24/92. And as the media is ramping up their fear mongering and paranoia, I'll defer to my own experience and make necessary adjustments. I will not however second guess the potential of a higher category hurricane anymore.

Remembering in my earlier years we used to look for hurricane parties to stay and ride out storms. Not so these days, I'll defer to age and experience. Gone are the days of Hurricane Donna, Cleo's, and Betsy I remembered. Andrew gave me a new perspective and appreciation of dangerous category storms..

I would postpone. Basics such as bottled water, fuel and certain foods will be difficult to find.

Its still a long way off, and the projected path is anywhere from Miami to South Carolina, it's a guessing game, forecast now it hits the coast on Monday... maybe

I'd do like BD says and watch the weather reports and links here, get a better idea of it's path later in the week.

For the 11am update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and is moving NW at 13mph.

The timetable has changed for when Dorian is projected to make landfall on the Space Coast of Florida... Which is early Monday morning.

Lower pressure means the storm is strengthening and could possible become a category 3 hurricane by Sunday morning, but will weaken slightly before making landfall on the Florida east coast.

Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.

Hurricane conditions and flash floods are possible for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Storm surge and flash flooding chances have increased for the northwestern Bahamas and Florida east coast.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico.

Link

quote:

Originally posted by just1tym:
Andrew gave me a new perspective and appreciation of dangerous category storms..

Andrew is one of the best examples in the books that our weather 'professionals' don't know jack about predicting these storms. Andrew was supposed to visit us in Central Florida before its movement into south Florida. And I visited Cutler Ridge post storm, so I'm well aware of the damage that storm inflicted. That said, the hype and BS people have pumped out on each storm over the past few years has risen to a point of utter irresponsibility. Common sense and person responsibility still should drive each of us in determining how we react to these storms.

Well I think though it's about someone who doesn't live in the FL area and a trip that's costing good money and what to do.

Right now sit tight and watch the projections, contact the airline regarding their position on the tickets as well as the hotel where you are staying.

If it did hit FL at Space Coast due east of Orlando you won't be flying in because they will shut down OIA... Disney will be closed for that day if the storm crosses FL.